世界银行：绿色贸易促进发展 (2023)（英文版）（141 页）.pdf
SERVICESThe Trade and Climate Change NexusThe Urgency and Opportunities for Developing CountriesPaul Brenton and Vicky ChemutaiTHE TRADE AND CLIMATECHANGENEXUSTHE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUSThe Urgency and Opportunities for Developing CountriesPaul Brenton and Vicky Chemutai 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 24 23 22 21This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods,processes,or conclusions set forth.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank,all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license(CC BY 3.0 IGO)http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy,distribute,transmit,and adapt this work,including for commercial purposes,under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows:Brenton,Paul,and Vicky Chemutai.2021.The Trade and Climate Change Nexus:The Urgency and Opportunities for Developing Countries.Washington,DC:World Bank.doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1770-0.License:Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation.The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work,please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank.Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work.The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties.The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you.If you wish to re-use a component of the work,it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner.Examples of components can include,but are not limited to,tables,figures,or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN(paper):978-1-4648-1770-0ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1773-1DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1770-0Cover photos:idreamipursue/iStock.Used with the permission of idreamipursue/iStock.Further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Melina Rose Yingling,World Bank.The Library of Congress Control Number has been requested.vContentsForeword ixAcknowledgments xiAbout the Authors xiiiExecutive Summary xvAbbreviations xixChapter 1 Introduction 1Notes 5References 5Chapter 2 Low-and Middle-Income Countries,Carbon Emissions,and Trade 7Trade,global value chains,and emissions 7Understanding emissions from the developing world 9Implications for global climate efforts and the role of trade policy 12Examining agriculture as one of the main trade-related sectors affecting emissions from the developing world 19Conclusions 25Notes 26References 26Chapter 3 Evolving Comparative Advantages and the Impacts of Extreme Weather Events 31The impact of a changing climate on comparative advantages 33Extreme weather events and trade 40Disaster response and trade restrictions:Implications from a numerical model 42Conclusions 48Notes 49References 50ContEntSviChapter 4 Adaptation to Climate Change:Trade in Green Goods and Services and Access to Low-Carbon Technologies 53The implications for trade of adapting to a changing climate 53Trade in environmental goods 55Conclusions 63Notes 63References 65Chapter 5 Environmental Policies and Trade 67The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and low-income-country trade 67Greening transport:Implications for low-income-country exports 82Conclusions 86Notes 86References 89Chapter 6 Issues at the Country Level:A Diagnostic Framework 93Vietnam 93Ethiopia 97Notes 101References 102Appendix A.The 59 Countries with the Fastest-Growing Carbon Dioxide Emissions 105Appendix B.Tariffs on Environmental Goods 109Appendix C.Climate and Trade Policy Diagnostic Framework 113Boxes 2.1 Modeling Postpandemic Impacts under Different Trade Scenarios 16 3.1 Numerical Model to Explore the Economic Impacts of Compound Hazards and Trade Restrictions 43 5.1 CO2 Intensity and Carbon Competitiveness in the Steel Industry 72 5.2 Modeling the Impacts of Nationally Determined Contributions and Carbon Border Adjustments 73 5.3 Implementation Challenges for Business Carbon Management:Walmarts Project Gigaton 80Figures 1.1 Links between Climate Change and Trade 4 2.1 Changes in Annual CO2 Emissions and GDP of the 59 Emerging Emitters,201018 10ContEntSvii 2.2 CO2 Emissions and GDP Growth of 59 Emerging Emitters,China,India,and the United States,201018 11 2.3 Countries with Surging Emissions and Their Drivers,by Region,201018 13 B2.1.1 CO2 Emissions in Selected Countries in the Postpandemic Era under Different Trade Pattern Scenarios,201940 17 B2.1.2 Poverty Rate in Selected Countries in the Postpandemic Era under Different Trade Pattern Scenarios,202450 18 2.4 Categories of Exports from the Poorest Countries to the World(Mirror Data),201219 20 2.5 Cereal Production versus Yield on Harvested Land in Sub-Saharan Africa,19602016 21 3.1 ND-GAIN Index:Vulnerability to Climate Change in Selected Countries,by Income Level,2019 32 3.2 Hunger with and without Climate Change in 2030 and 2050,by Region 37 3.3 Weekly Changes in Regional Gross Value Added Relative to Predisaster Levels,When Multiscale Floods Collide with Pandemic Control and Export Restrictions 46 3.4 Weekly Changes in Regional GVA,Relative to Predisaster Levels,When Multiscale Floods Collide with Pandemic Control and Production Specialization 47 4.1 Number of Environmental Goods with Tariffs above 5 Percent,2018 58 B5.1.1 CO2 Intensity Values for Steel 72 5.1 Change in Real Income and Carbon Prices Associated with Achievement of Nationally Determined Contribution Targets in a Post-COVID Scenario,by Region,2030 74 5.2 Impacts of the European Green Deal and CBAM on GDP per Capita,by EU Trading Region,2030 76 5.3 Impacts of CBAM on Income per Capita and Carbon Intensity of Exports to the European Union,by EU Trading Region,2030 77 6.1 Evolution of Vietnams Top Five Export Products,200719 95 B.1 Average Most-Favored-Nation Tariffs on Environmental Goods(APEC List),by Economy,2018 110 B.2 Average Most-Favored-Nation Tariffs on Environmentally Preferable Products,by Economy,2018 111Map 2.1 Rate of Growth of CO2 Emissions,201018,and GDP per Capita 11Tables ES.1 The Trade and Climate Change Myth Buster xvi 3.1 Factors Affected by Climate Change and Impact on Crop Productivity 34 3.2 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields,Accounting for CO2 Fertilization,by Region 35 3.3 Estimated Changes in Aggregate Productivity due to the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Selected Countries,at the 2080 Horizon 36ContEntSviii 3.4 Average Most-Favored-Nation Unweighted Tariffs on Agricultural Products in Selected Countries and Regions,2019 38 3.5 Indirect Impacts on Global GDP of a“Perfect Storm”under Different Export Restriction Scenarios 44 3.6 Indirect Impacts on Global GDP of a“Perfect Storm”under Different Production Specialization and Export Restriction Scenarios,Relative to Predisaster Levels 47 4.1 GATS Commitments for Environmental Services,by Supply Mode 62 5.1 Changes in Output Following the Implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions,by Sector and Region 75 5.2 Impact of the European Green Deal and CBAM on Selected Sectors of EU Trading Partners 77 5.3 Carbon Footprint of 1 Kilogram of Green Coffee 84 A.1 Emerging Emitters,by Stage of Economic Development 106ixForewordAll human and economic activities have an impact on the environment.Trade is no different.The production,movement,and consumption of goods and serviceswithin and across bordersis the foundation of modern society.This process brings us the energy that powers our homes and gets us to work each day.It delivers the food we need,the appliances we have come to depend on,and the medical supplies that help make us safer.Yet each stage of the process entails a fresh contribution to greenhouse gas emissions:trade undeniably exacerbates climate change.It is equally true that trade is disrupted by climate change.Extreme weather events often devastate transport and logistics infrastructure.These events erode capital stock,debilitate export capac-ity,damage agriculture,and disrupt food securityall with adverse consequences for long-term development outcomes.Trade,in short,is a critical node to mobilize if the world is to achieve green,resilient,and inclusive development in the coming years.As this report demonstrates,it is a central element of the solution to climate changebecause it has the potential to enhance mitiga-tion as well as adaptation efforts.First,trade can help shift production to areas with cleaner production techniques:as the world makes the transition to a low-carbon econ-omy,export comparative advantages will change,compelling countries to adapt and seize new opportunities.Second,trade promotes the spread of critical environmental goods and services that can help reduce emissions and improve environmental managementtoday,global trade in environmental goods is estimated at more than US$1 trillion annu-ally and is rising.Third,imports are critical to immediate recovery from a natural disaster,when essential items such as food and medicines are in short supply.In a world increas-ingly shaped by climate change,trade will be a crucial mechanism to address food inse-curity,support adaptation,and enable recovery from natural disasters.In the last decade,some developing countries have emerged as fast-growing emit-ters of greenhouse gases.The poorest countries,however,remain the smallest con-tributors to emissions.Yet they often suffer the most from climate change.Natural disasters disproportionately affect the most vulnerable people and the smallest firms.All developing countries therefore have an important stake in adapting to climate changeespecially in agriculture,which is central to food security,employment,and trade and is also the most sensitive to climate change.Tourism,the mainstay of the economy of many small island developing states,is also particularly sensitive to climate change.Diversifying away from sectors that are the most vulnerable to climate shocks will allow these economies to become more resilient over the long term.ForEwordxThe global community has an important role to play in greening trade.This report identifies several immediate trade policy measures that offer quick wins.Correcting the current bias in many countries tariff schedules toward imports of carbon-intensive“dirty”goods is one of them.Advanced economies can also support green trade liberal-ization of goods and services of high-priority interest to exporters in developing coun-tries.Multilateral negotiations should focus not only on tariffs on environmental goods but also on nontariff measures and regulations affecting servicesaccess to which is often vital for implementing the new technologies embodied in environmental goods.Enforceable rules should be created to ensure global discipline in the use of trade mea-sures that impede crisis responsesuch as export restrictions on food or medicine or restrictive intellectual property rights that prevent the diffusion of clean technologies to developing countries.The need for transparency and predictability in policies affecting trade is always pressing,but it is particularly urgent during a crisis.The least-developed countries also need to be at the multilateral negotiating table for matters involving trade and the environment.Policy makers in these countries have not paid much attention to trade policy as a tool for achieving environmental objectives.By contributing to the rules governing environmental trade,they can ensure that their interestsespecially regarding capacity building and data collectionare duly consid-ered.They can help ensure that the standards set reflect the reality of production in these countries.All developing countries have much to gain by improving their policies on trade and the environment.Implementing ambitious nationally determined contributions(NDCs)to achieve climate goals,for example,can help them exploit new trade opportu-nities arising from the implementation of NDCs in other countries.Reaping the gains from emerging trade opportunities will also require developing countries to address their high costs of trade:doing so can make them both competitive and resilient in the long term.Lowering tariff and nontariff barriers on imports that embody new technologies can drive productivity growth and adaptation.The global community can help develop-ing countries adopt climate-smart agriculture and build capacity for trade-facilitation reforms.Mutual recognition agreements covering environmental goods and products can go a long way in helping exporters in developing countries meet the regulatory requirements of developed countries,thereby cutting time and costs.As countries formulate policies for recovery from the COVID-19(coronavirus)pandemic,the World Bank Group is supporting their efforts to embark on a green,resilient,and inclusive development path,setting the foundation for robust and sus-tainable growth and development in the longer run.The World Bank Group Climate Change Action Plan for 20212025 takes a whole of economy approach,focusing on policies to create the right enabling environment for climate action.Trade is an indispensable requirement for achieving the global development agenda.This report provides a timely review of critical issues involving green trade,laying out the key policy steps that countries can take to ensure that trade plays its full role in supporting the transition to a low-carbon future.Mari PangestuManaging Director of Development Policy and PartnershipsWorld BankxiAcknowledgmentsThe authors are indebted to many colleagues for their contributions to the substance of this report.These include Dabo Guan(distinguished professor,Tsinghua University,China,and University College London,UK),Michael Friis Jensen(consultant,Trade and Regional Integration Unit ETIRI,World Bank),Maryla Maliszewska(senior economist,ETIRI),Maria Filipa Seara E Pereira(consultant,ETIRI),Israel Osorio-Rodarte(economist,ETIRI),Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe(research professor and director,Global Trade Analysis Project Center at Purdue University),Walter Mandela(consultant,ETIRI),Mariam Soumare(consultant,ETIRI),Nyembezi Mvunga(consultant,ETIRI),Anita Nyajur(consultant,ETIRI),and Emilia Malavoloneque(consultant,ETIRI).Many colleagues,inside and outside the World Bank Group,provided useful comments,suggestions,and inputs at various drafting stages:Michael Ferrantino(lead economist,ETIRI);Robert Mutyaba(climate change specialist,World Bank);Stphane Hallegatte(lead economist,World Bank),and Kayenat Kabir(consultant,World Bank)on behalf of the Climate Change Group;and Emiliano Duch(lead pri-vate sector specialist,World Bank),Miles McKenna(associate economist,International Finance Corporation),and Brian Blankespoor(environmental specialist,World Bank).At the World Trade Organization(WTO),valuable comments were received from Aik Hoe Lim(director,Trade and Environment Division)and Daniel Ramos(legal officer,Trade and Environment Division).The team also deeply thanks Erik Churchill(Vice President of Public Affairs,United Parcel Service,United States),Mohini Datt(consultant,ETIRI),Pratyush Dubey(consultant,ETIRI),Niels Junker Jacobsen(senior trade specialist,ETIRI),and Karen Souza Muramatsu(consultant,ETIRI)for their valuable recommenda-tions.Administrative support was also provided by Tanya Cubbins,Victoria L.Fofanah,Aidara Janulaityte,and Flavia Nahmias da Silva Gomes.We are also grateful for the insights and collaboration of several colleagues who have participated in the Trade and Climate Change Webinar Series.These include Richard Damania(chief economist,Sustainable Development,World Bank),Vicente Hurtado Roa(head of unit,Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union,European Commission),Georg Zachmann(senior fellow,Bruegel),Holger A.Kray(practice manager,Agriculture and Food Security,World Bank),Edwini Kessie(director,Agriculture Division,WTO),Steven Stone(chief,Resources and Markets Branch Economy Division,United Nations Environment Programme),Grzegorz Peszko(lead economist,Environment and Natural Resources,World Bank),Lourdes Sanchez ACknowlEdgmEntSxii(senior policy adviser and lead on Indonesia,International Institute for Sustainable Development),Shari Friedman(agriculture global head,Climate Strategy and Business Development,International Finance Corporation),Penny Naas(president,International Public Affairs and Sustainability,United Parcel Service,United States),Steve Nicholls(head of environment,National Business Initiative,South Africa),Urvashi Narain(lead environmental economist for East and Southern Africa Region,World Bank),Ryan Abman(assistant professor of economics,San Diego State University),Clark Lundberg(research agricultural economist,Economic Research Service,US Department of Agriculture),Michele Ruta(lead economist,ETIRI),Prudence Sebahizi(chief technical adviser on the African Continental Free Trade Area,African Union Commission),Allen Asiimwe(chief technical officer,Trademark East Africa),Olivier Mahul(practice manager,Crisis and Disaster Risk Finance,World Bank),Alexei Kireyev(senior economist,International Monetary Fund),Andrew Burns(lead economist,EMFMD,World Bank),Aik Hoe Lim(director,Trade and Environment Division),Ronald Steenblik(senior fellow,International Institute for Sustainable Development),Mahesh Sugathan(senior policy adviser,Forum on Trade,Environment,and the Sustainable Development Goals;independent consultant),Kimberley Botwright(community lead,Global Trade and Investment,World Economic Forum),Ana Laura Lizano(trade counselor,Permanent Mission of Costa Rica to the World Trade Organization),Martha Martinez Licetti(practice manager,ETIMT,World Bank),Stefan Gssling(professor,Department of Service Management and Service Studies,Lund University;School of Business and Economics,Linnaeus University,Kalmar),Kimarli Fernando(chairperson,Sri Lanka Tourism),and Megan Morikawa(global director for sustainability,Iberostar Group).The authors are deeply grateful to Anna Brown,Elizabeth Forsyth,and Inge Pakulski,who edited the text.Patricia Katayama and Mark McClure expertly led the publishing process.Yaneisy Martinez coordinated the print and electronic conversion.Melina Rose Yingling created the cover and interior design.Elizabeth Price and Inae Rivers provided excellent guidance on the communica-tions strategy,and Avik Ray created the video for this report.All information on the trade and climate change work program is posted on the World Bank website at https:/www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/brief/trade-and-climate-change.This report is an output of the Trade and Regional Integration Unit of the World Bank.Funding support was received from the Umbrella Trust Fund for Trade,which is supported by the Foreign,Commonwealth&Development Office(FCDO),the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs of Switzerland(SECO),the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Norway,the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands,and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency(Sida).The former global director for Trade,Investment,and Competitiveness,Caroline Freund(now Dean,School of Global Policy and Strategy,University of California at San Diego)and Antonio Nucifora,ETIRI practice manager,provided valuable guid-ance and supervision throughout.xiiiAbout the Authors Paul Brenton is lead economist in the Trade and Regional Integration Unit of the World Bank.He focuses on analytical and operations work on trade and regional inte-gration.He has led the implementation of World Bank lending operations such as the Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project in the Democratic Republic of Congo,Rwanda,and Uganda.He coauthored the joint World BankWorld Trade Organization report The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty,and has managed a range of policy-oriented volumes,including De-Fragmenting Africa:Deepening Regional Trade Integration in Goods and Services;Africa Can Help Feed Africa;and Carbon Footprints and Food Systems:Do Current Accounting Methodologies Disadvantage Developing Countries?He joined the World Bank in 2002;before that,he served as senior research fellow and head of the Trade Policy Unit at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels and lectured in economics at the University of Birmingham(UK).A collection of his work has been published in International Trade,Distribution,and Development:Empirical Studies of Trade Policies(https:/of his research and policy papers are available at http:/ideas.repec.org/f/pbr273.html.He has a PhD in economics from the University of East Anglia.Vicky Chemutai is a Young Professional with the Trade and Regional Integration Unit of the World Bank.Her interests include analyzing the dynamics of international trade and its interactions with global issuesamong others,climate and gender con-cerns.She has developmental experience spanning the public sector in several Ugandan government agencies(health,social security,and the central bank);the private sector as founder of several small-scale entrepreneurial ventures;and the inter-national development sector,focusing on trade policy formulation and implementa-tion,formerly at the World Trade Organization and currently at the World Bank Group.She has been an adjunct lecturer at the International University in Geneva in the fields of trade and statistics and has coauthored publications on trade policy and its impacts on countries development.She holds an MSc in international trade policy and trade law from Lund University(Sweden),an advanced postgraduate diploma in international trade policy and trade law from the Trade Policy Training Centre in Africa(Tanzania),and a BSc in quantitative economics from Makerere University(Uganda).xvExecutive SummaryWhile trade contributes to climate change,it is also a central part of the solutionenhancing both mitigation and adaptation.This report explores the ways in which trade and climate change intersect.In the process,it confronts several myths concern-ing trade and climate change(as summarized in table ES.1).Trade exacerbates the emissions that cause global warming and is itself affected by climate change through changing comparative advantages.The report focuses on the impacts of,and adjust-ments to,climate change in low-and middle-income countries and how both the changing climate and the policy responses to address it will affect future trade opportunities.Low-and middle-income countries are at the heart of the nexus between trade and climate change,facing severe challenges but also opportunities in the transition to a low-carbon future.Trade-driven growth will be essential to eliminating extreme pov-erty;however,given existing structures of production,this growth will also drive increasing emissions.Both adaptation and the shift to a lower-carbon growth trajec-tory will be key challenges for the most vulnerable countries,which have the least resources and weakest capacity to adjust to a changing climate.An increasing body of analysis shows that low-carbon and climate-resilient growth can provide poverty reduction and human development outcomes superior to the current alternative.In this context,the World Bank Group is supporting countries to embark on a green,resilient,and inclusive development(GRID)path,in which trade must play a key role,especially as a conduit for making new low-carbon technologies available to low-and middle-income countries.Trade is increasingly being affected by extreme weather-related shocks such as storms,floods,and droughts,but it is often critical to the recovery from such events.Exports and imports are directly affected negatively when trade-related transportation and logistics infrastructure sustains significant damage.Longer-term adverse impacts arise from loss of life and injury of employees and damage to buildings,machinery,and so forth.These impacts are compounded when exporter contracts are canceled because companies cannot fulfill orders during the crisis.Food production is hit hard when extreme weather events prevent the planting or harvesting of main crops.Imports are critical to the immediate recovery from a natural disaster.Trade allows imports from unaffected countries to meet the crisis-induced shortage of supply in critical goods and services.Such imports are crucial to avoiding long-term negative development outcomes.For example,imports of food can prevent malnutrition and xviEXECUtIVE SUmmArYstunting of children,which affects their learning and productivity in later life.During reconstruction,imports provide the equipment,materials,and skills needed to rebuild the capital stock and transportation infrastructure.Climate change is also affecting traditional comparative advantages,specifically agriculture and tourism,which are of particular importance to many low-and middle-income countriesmore than industrial activities.The vulnerability of agricultural yields to climate threatens not just domestic food security but also the economic devel-opment of food-exporting countries and their ability to eliminate poverty.Yet out-comes are not always negative and vary across and within countries.Most studies of climate change and its impacts on agriculture have focused on crop production,but the effect of heat on labor productivity will also reduce agricultural output.In the trop-ics,the impacts of heat stress may be greater on humans than on adapted crops.With regard to tourism,climate change is increasingly undermining its role in driving TABLE ES.1 the trade and Climate Change myth BusterThe mythThe emerging realitytrade is bad for the environment.trade flows contribute to carbon emissions but are also a critical part of the solution to climate change for three major reasons:(1)trade shifts production to areas with cleaner production techniques;(2)trade promotes the spread of environmental goods and services necessary for transitioning to low-carbon production;and(3)trade delivers critical goods and services that are vital in periods of recovery from extreme weather events.trade is bad for climate change relative to domestically produced goods because of the emissions from international transportation.while the international transportation of goods and services is a source of emissions,other sources of carbon competitiveness along the value chain can more than offset its quantity of emissions.For example,fruits and vegetables produced in Africa using sunshine,manual labor,and natural compost may generate far fewer emissions than production in Europe requiring heated greenhouses,tractors,and manufactured fertilizer.Because they are not large emitters individually,the poorest countries do not need to play a major role in negotiating the rules on trade and environment.Collectively,low-and middle-income countries have been increasingly carbonizing over the last decade in pursuit of their development goals,and they need to be at the forefront of climate change adaptation and mitigation.Climate change will affect the poorest countries most severely,and contributing to the rules governing trade and the environment can help to ensure that their interests are considered properly.If a country gets its climate policy right,then the job is finished.trade and climate change policies intersect.trade reforms in the absence of appropriate climate change policies can have adverse impacts on emissions.when appropriate climate change policies are implemented,trade reforms ensure that goods and services are produced in the most(carbon)efficient location.there is no need to review tariffs from a climate change perspective.tariff structures are often biased in favor of dirty goods.Bringing tariffs on dirty goods in line with those on clean goods would make a significant contribution to reducing carbon emissions.the impacts of climate change will not be felt soon,so mitigation policies suffice for now.rising temperatures and changing patterns of precipitation are already affecting crop yields and traditional comparative advantages.mitigation is necessary,but not sufficient;adaptation will be critical,especially for poor countries.while nontariff barriers increase trade costs,they have little to do with climate change.nontariff barriers are a major constraint on trade in critical environmental goods.they also limit access to key products that will drive adaptation,such as seeds and fertilizers.delays at the border and in ports indirectly exacerbate the huge waste of food products,with the resulting cost of higher emissions for a given level of food consumption.Source:World Bank.xviiEXECUTIVE SUMMARYdevelopment and reducing poverty in vulnerable countries,such as small island devel-oping states.Substantial new opportunities are emerging for low-and middle-income coun-tries to diversify exports in a low-carbon global economy.While these countries face huge challenges in adapting to climate change,they will be able to benefit from natu-ral low-carbon advantages and the application of new,low-carbon technologies to increase their carbon competitiveness as traditional comparative advantages are undermined.In an increasingly climate changeafflicted world,trade will gain importance as a mechanism to address food insecurity,support adaptation,and enable recovery from extreme weather events.A trend toward deglobalization would compromise countries ability to drive down poverty and transition to low-carbon growth.In fact,opportuni-ties exist to reduce barriers to support the greening of trade and facilitate countries adjustment to changing comparative advantages.Such measures include the following:Review country tariffs and remove any bias toward dirty sectors Reduce restrictions on access to environmental goods and services and on envi-ronmentally preferable products;accelerate negotiations on these goods and ser-vices at the multilateral level Remove nontariff barriers and implement trade facilitation and logistics reforms to reduce delays at borders and along trade routes,especially to reduce food waste and so contribute to food security Work collectively to develop standards on the carbon emissions embodied in a product that capture the realities of measurement in low-and middle-income countries;scale up technical assistance and capacity building on carbon measure-ment techniques and traceability Reduce tariffs and nontariff barriers on agricultural inputs and facilitate access to new technologies for farmers through expedited procedures for releasing seeds and easier movement of agricultural specialists Use the tools available at the World Trade Organization to address the climate change emergency,such as a waiver for the trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights of green technologies.The use of export restrictions is particularly detrimental in a world marked by recurring climate disasters.Measures that reduce trade flows in countries less affected by a weather-related crisis undermine the efforts of countries battling an extreme weather event.These negative effects are increased in a world where specialization through trade and concentration of production in a few locations limit the options to substitute suppliers.Global food security is being increasingly compromised by the rising volatility of food supply at the country level as weather becomes more variable and uncertain.This report offers two main suggestions for addressing these challenges.First,enhance efforts to increase information,transparency,and monitoring on global markets for essential items,including food.Greater transparency and information sharing can help to limit panic-driven policy decisions and lead to more informed and coordinated responses that avoid damaging trade restrictions.Second,deepen cooperation at the regional and multilateral levels on trade issues that are critical for xviiiEXECUtIVE SUmmArYhealth and food security and provide effective disciplines regarding the use of export-restricting measures.It is critical to ensure that the interests of low-and middle-income countries are reflected in the design of trade measures introduced to reduce a countrys or a companys carbon footprint.Governments are planning to introduce taxes at the border to comple-ment domestic carbon taxes and prevent carbon leakage.Companies are also designing and implementing programs to demonstrate that they have reduced emissions along their value chains.There is no easy and commonly accepted way to calculate the carbon footprint of a product arriving at the border.Despite the difficulties,this calculation is required to tax the embedded carbon,as is information on carbon taxes(if any)already levied in the country of production.These programs face a range of practical implemen-tation problems beyond measuring carbon content,including sector coverage,scope of carbon measurement,when and which default values are used,and how countries can demonstrate their carbon competitiveness.These measures all determine the impact of the program on the trade of low-and middle-income countries.Measures to reduce carbon emissions will most heavily affect the countries that export fossil fuels and carbon-intensive products,but new opportunities will also arise in global value chains that are less carbon intensive.Measures to support climate miti-gation objectives,including carbon border adjustment mechanisms,will increase the importance of export and output diversification in countries reliant on exports of fossil fuels and carbon-intensive manufactures,such as metals and fertilizers.But opportuni-ties will arise for countries that can demonstrate carbon competitiveness in these man-ufacturing sectors.New opportunities will also arise as demand shifts to products that are less carbon intensive,such as electronics and other light manufacturing.But many low-and middle-income countries lack appropriate capacities to identify areas of car-bon competitiveness,and their firms are unable to measure and verify carbon reduc-tions for a given good or service.As a result,exports from low-and middle-income countries risk being taxed unfairly at the border,and their firms risk being excluded from international value chains.It is essential for low-and middle-income countries to understand the risks and opportunities for trade and development strategies associated with climate change.This report offers a trade and climate policy diagnostic template that can provide inputs to country climate and development reports and beyond,to facilitate a broad dialogue on(1)strengthening capacities to identify opportunities for carbon mitiga-tion that increase competitiveness,(2)investments in carbon measurement that are necessary to verify carbon competitiveness,and(3)trade policy and trade facilitation reforms that will support adaptation and access to essential technologies and techniques.This template brings together information on the trade and climate interlinkages at the country level to identify(a)key vulnerabilities in trade to rising temperatures,changing precipitation,and more frequent extreme weather events;(b)areas where trade can support mitigation and adaptation to a changing climate as well as emerging constraints;(c)regulatory gaps in the climate and trade policy environment;and(d)recommendations of climate-relevant trade policy options.xixAbbreviationsACCTS Agreement on Climate Change,Trade,and Sustainability AfCFTA African Continental Free Trade Area AGOA African Growth and Opportunity ActAMIS Agricultural Market Information SystemAPEC Asia-Pacific Economic CooperationARIO adaptive regional input-output CAFTA Central America Free Trade Agreement CBAM Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism CGE computable general equilibriumCO2 carbon dioxideCORSIA Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation CPC Central Product ClassificationEBA Everything But ArmsEC European CommissionEEA European Economic Area EGA Environmental Goods AgreementEKC Environmental Kuznets CurveEPP environmentally preferable product ETS Emissions Trading SystemEU European UnionGAINS Greenhouse GasAir Pollution Interactions and Synergies(model)GATS General Agreement on Trade in ServicesGATT General Agreement on Tariffs and TradeGDP gross domestic productGRID green,resilient,and inclusive developmentGSP Generalized System of PreferencesGTAP Global Trade Analysis Project GVA gross value addedICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute IMO International Maritime Organization IO input-outputIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeABBrEVIAtIonSxxISO International Organization for Standardization LULUCF land use,land-use change,and forestry MRIO multiregional input-output NDC nationally determined contributionND-GAIN University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation InitiativeOECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPAS Publicly Available Specification PPP purchasing power parityR&D research and developmentSBTi Science Based Target InitiativeUNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeW/120 Sectoral Classification ListWTO World Trade OrganizationAll dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated.11IntroductionClimate change is increasingly at the forefront of domestic and international policy priorities,and solutions are urgently needed.Trade plays an important role in the emission of greenhouse gases that exacerbate climate change through its effects on the location and scale of production,consumption decisions,emissions from the interna-tional transporting of goods and services,and the transfer of technologies that may lead to lower emissions in production.Most recent estimates show that around a quar-ter of all global emissions are linked to international trade flows.While attention is currently focused on reducing emissions,it is increasingly recognized that the climate is already changing and that solutions to adapt to rising temperatures and more extreme weather events are urgently needed.According to the World Meteorological Organization(WMO),the summer of 2021 has seen intense and unprecedented heat waves,especially in the Northern Hemisphere.1 Additionally,the WMO reports that from 1970 to 2019,weather,climate and water hazards accounted for 50 percent of all disasters,45 percent of all reported deaths and 74 percent of all reported economic losses,with 91 percent of the deaths occurring in developing countries(WMO 2021b).Moreover,several climate economists have made projections and stressed the urgency of acting now,insisting that policy makers act in the coming decades,as these years represent a window of opportunity to develop smart and forward-looking adaptation policies.2 The poorest countries have not traditionally featured in the top list of carbon dioxide(CO2)emitters,but they will face,or are already facing,the most adverse consequences,and these consequences will impede their growth and develop-ment.China,the European Union,India,Japan,the Russian Federation,and the United States accounted for about 70 percent of global emissions in 2019,but low-and middle-income nations are especially vulnerable and on the receiving end of cli-matic distortions.From cross-country analysis,Dasgupta et al.(2011)find a significant increase in the exposure of these countries to climate-induced changes in sea-level rise and storm surges.Malawi annually lost up to 1.7 percent of its gross domestic product(GDP)between 2005 and 2010 owing to extreme climate events(Pauw,Thurlow,and van Seventer 2010),and up to 12 percent of the population in Lilongwe District could THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS2be vulnerable to food insecurity by the end of the century(Stevens and Madani 2016).In Pakistan,a 1C increase in temperature is estimated to lead to a substantial reduc-tion in net farm revenue each year(Shakoor et al.2011).The effects of climate change are not always negative,but governments need to ready themselves for the incoming adjustments and figure out how best to adapt.The main changes in climate will take the form of rising temperatures,changing patterns of precipitation,more frequent river floods,sea-level rise,melting ice caps,and other extreme weather conditionsall having a direct impact on how and what the world trades:how trade will be affectedthat is,over land,by plane,or by shipand what trade will be affected,particularly in response to changing comparative advantages and patterns of production.The consensus among climate change analysts is that rising temperatures will likely have a positive impact in colder areas,by boosting agricultural productivity,3 but will have a negative impact in hotter areas,especially in the tropics.A few studies have estimated positive changes,particularly in terms of transportation routes and transportation infrastructure(Heininen,Exner-Pirot,and Plouffe 2015).Arctic sea ice is already melting and opening new shipping routes,allowing ships with light icebreakers to navigate the Arctic Ocean more easily(Shiryaevskaya,Lombrana,and Tanas 2020).Within countries,the impacts of rising temperature and changes in rainfall patterns may be quite localized.For example,in Tanzania,while agricultural yields may rise in certain districts,they are expected to fall in others.Thus,impacts could differ across households both by region and by income category(Arndt et al.2012).Understanding these changes would enable governments to design appropriate climate change adaptation policies.As the private sector will be at the forefront of adaptation within the policy frame-work to be defined by governments,it needs to be engaged in policy discussions from the outset.Most private sector actors in the poorest countries tend to view climate change as an“environmental issue”rather than as a business issue with significant implications for them.Consequently,much of the private sector underrates the degree of climate risks(Goldstein et al.2018).Any messaging needs to take this misperception into account,stressing the dire economic consequences of climate change,particularly for production and supply chains.In this regard,early engagement is critical.Governance mechanisms would be better off taking the form of public-private dia-logues with civil society such that climate change adaptation becomes an integral part of decision-making at all levels of society(Fayolle et al.2019).Therefore,it will be important to assess the degree of climate risks along the production and supply chains of private sector investments that are highly vulnerable to climate change.Country-specific interventions regarding trade liberalization would be better informed if they were based on an in-depth analysis of the nexus between international trade and climate change.For example,any trade-related interventions targeted at boosting agricultural productivity and consequently increasing farmers incomes would be remiss to ignore the criticality of drought-resilience strategies(Alfani et al.2019).Additionally,Nhemachena and Hassan(2007),in assessing farmers adaptation strategies for climate change in Southern Africa,find that farmers access to credit and extension services as well as climate change awareness are important determinants of farm-level adaptation.Moreover,Ouraich et al.(2019),in analyzing Morocco and Turkey,conclude that the greater the trade liberalization,the higher the gains in global welfare,although these gains may not be large enough to offset the negative impacts on agricultural productivity globally.Clearly,any mitigation or adaptation strategy needs to take into account country-specific development needs as well as the prevailing INTRODUCTION3institutional and technical capacity to address climate change.But policy makers also need to be aware of how climate change will affect other countries in terms of competi-tiveness and comparative advantage.Good governance and appropriately designed policies today will be critical to realizing the benefits of trade while mitigating climate change,especially for low-and middle-income countries tomorrow.Emerson et al.(2011),in examining the nuances between trade and the environment,find that higher trade flows are correlated posi-tively with good environmental practices and that good,data-driven decision-making will be fundamental to overcoming the existing challenges.The World Banks flagship report on managing the impacts of climate change on poverty suggests that appropri-ate,climate-informed policies today will determine future impacts on poverty(Hallegatte et al.2016).Governments of low-and middle-income countries often pri-oritize economic growth and poverty reduction.In view of this,when interacting with the Banks client governments,addressing climate change should be considered a necessary conduit for catalyzing sustainable trade growth.Trade in low-and middle-income countries will be affected by policy measures and private sector actions that are introduced to mitigate carbon emissions in other countries.Many countries are implementing policies to achieve their nationally defined contributions under the Paris Agreement,while being encouraged to set higher goals given the increasing evidence of the extent to which the planet is warming.Many of these policies,such as putting a price on the use of carbon through emissions-trading programs,will affect the structure of demand away from carbon-intensive goods and indirectly affect trade.More direct impacts will come if countries impose border adjustment programs to ensure that imports are taxed equally on their carbon content.Firms,too,are assessing their carbon footprint and seeking ways to reduce the emissions associated with them and to communicate their efforts to the wider society.Firms in low-and middle-income countries that supply inputs to global value chains may find that their buyers are placing more emphasis on the ability to track and reduce carbon emissions from their specific activities.Hence,trade is a key element in discussions about climate change,touching on emissions,mitigation,and adaptation.Figure 1.1 presents an overview of the types of trade and environmental or climate policies addressed in this report.It shows the importance of creating policies that consider both trade and climate change issues.The dialogue underpinning these policies requires a strong analytical base that,while recognizing emissions related to trade and legitimate concerns over carbon leak-age,4 does not resort to populist views that treat trade in generic terms as“simply bad for climate change.”In particular,these discussions need to recognize the gains from trade,how these gains can improve the ability of countries to invest in mitiga-tion,and the instrumental role of trade in combating and adapting to climate change.While there are notable cases where trade has exacerbated environmental out-comes in countries with weak governance structures,there are also cases,such as Costa Rica,where trade liberalization has accompanied an improving environment.This report shows that low-and middle-income countries are at the heart of the nexus between trade and climate change.Trade has been a phenomenal driver of pov-erty reduction over the past 30 years,and poverty reduction will remain the dominant development objective for many countries in the coming decades.But the changing climate and the policy responses being adopted to address it mean that current growth paths are not sustainable.Opportunities exist to move to a green,resilient,and inclu-sive development path,and trade will play a key role for many countries in this THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS4transition.Indeed,there are good reasons to believe that greening trade will contribute more to better growth,poverty reduction,and human development outcomes than current development trajectories.The report is organized as follows.Chapter 2 explains the rationale for paying attention to the important role of low-and middle-income countries in mitigating and adapting to climate change.It presents new analyses pointing to the increasing annual growth rate of emissions in the poorest countries and provides solutions that center on trade policy.Noting the importance of agriculture for low-and middle-income coun-tries,this chapter also examines emissions related to land-use change and options for sustainable agricultural land management through trade policy.Chapter 3 delves into the evolving comparative advantages and discusses the impacts of extreme weather events.It uses a stylized model to illustrate the importance of refraining from the use of trade restrictions during climate disasters that are coupled with other global disasters,such as the COVID-19 pandemic.Chapter 4 presents the necessity of adaptation poli-cies and the role of trade policy in facilitating the exchange of green goods and services and in promoting access to low-carbon technologies.It also discusses the implications of adaptation for trade.Chapter 5 examines the various types of environmental poli-cies(at the government and firm levels)and their intersection with trade,especially regarding their effects on exports from the poorest countries.It also discusses the Rising average temperatures Increasing sea levels Changes in rainfall patterns Permafrost collapse Increase in extreme weather eventsClimate Change Switch to clean energy,thus efficiencies Emission capture and storage Afforestation Trade Switch to green production andconsumption by liberalizingmeasures to facilitate trade inenvironmental goods andservices Production and consumption Movement of goods,services,people,and capitalMitigationMitigation Environmental border taxadjustments Fossil fuel subsidy reforms Renewable energy trade Technology transferIntersectionof Climate andTrade PolicyAdaptationImpactsImpactsAdaptationTrade Policies Tariffs and nontariff barriers Services regulatory restrictions Standards and certification Green government procurement Migration New trade routes New types oftrade jobs underharsh climate Direct emissions Deforestation andland-use change:emissions andsinks Land and waterpollution Comparativeadvantages andproductivity Disruption of valuechains Degrading oftrade-relatedinfrastructure Climate-smartagriculturepractices Change instructure andlocation ofproduction Climate Policies International,regional,andnational climate regulations,for example Emission targets Food waste preventionSource:World Bank.FIGURE 1.1 links between Climate Change and tradeINTRODUCTION5necessity of greening transportation,particularly for exports from poor countries,which are mostly agricultural.Finally,chapter 6 highlights some of the issues raised in applying the climate and trade policy diagnostic framework for Ethiopia and Vietnam.This report offers critical insights into the emerging types of climate-related issues and the corresponding trade policy options needed to present solutions.In doing so,it supports the World Bank Climate Action Plan(202125)and regional climate action plans.It is hoped that these findings will contribute to the dialogue between the World Bank and its client countries on trade and climate change issues.Notes1.For more details,see WMO(2021a),which adds that 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record.Further,June 2021 was the fifth-warmest Juneand the warmest for Earths land areassince global record-keeping began in 1880,with temperatures 0.88C(1.58F)above the 20th-century average,according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations National Centers for Environmental Information.2.For example,see Arndt et al.(2014)for their evaluation of the implications of climate change for growth and development in Malawi.3.However,the positive impact on agricultural productivity could be offset by excessive rainfall or the emergence of pests.4.Carbon leakage occurs when a mitigation policy in one jurisdiction leads not only to lower emissions in that jurisdiction but also to higher emissions in other,less climate-friendly juris-dictions,as firms shift their production to areas with less-stringent climate regulations.ReferencesAlfani,Federica,Aslihan Arslan,Nancy McCarthy,Romina Cavatassi,and Nicholas Sitko.2019.“Climate-Change Vulnerability in Rural Zambia:The Impact of an El Nio-Induced Shock on Income and Productivity.”FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 19-02,Food and Agriculture Organization,Rome.Arndt,Channing,William Farmer,Kenneth Strzepek,and James Thurlow.2012.“Climate Change,Agriculture,and Food Security in Tanzania.”Policy Research Working Paper 6188,World Bank,Washington,DC.Arndt,Channing,Adam Schlosser,Kenneth Strzepek,and James Thurlow.2014.“Climate Change and Economic Growth Prospects for Malawi:An Uncertainty Approach.”Journal of African Economies 23(Suppl.2):ii83ii107.http:/jae.oxfordjournals.org/content/23/suppl_2/ii83.full.Dasgupta,Susmita,Benoit Laplante,Siobhan Murray,and David Wheeler.2011.“Exposure of Developing Countries to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surges.”Climatic Change 106(4):56779.Emerson,John W.,Daniel C.Hillhouse,Tanja Srebotnjak,and Diana Connett.2011.“Exploring Trade and the Environment:An Empirical Examination of Trade Openness and National Environmental Performance.”Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy,Yale University,New Haven,CT.https:/envirocenter.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/exploring_trade _and_the_environment.pdf.Fayolle,Virginie,Caroline Fouvet,Vidya Soundarajan,Vandana Nath,Sunil Acharya,Naman Gupta,and Luca Petrarulo.2019.“Engaging the Private Sector in Financing Adaptation to Climate Change:Learning from Practice.”Action on Climate Today Learning Paper,Oxford Policy Management,Oxford,February 2019.http:/TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS6Goldstein,Allie,Will R.Turner,Jillian Gladstone,and David Hole.2018.“The Private Sectors Climate Change Risk and Adaptation Blind Spots.”Nature Climate Change 9(1):1825.Hallegatte,Stphane,Mook Bangalore,Laura Bonzanigo,Marianne Fay,Tamaro Kane,Ulf Narloch,Julie Rozenberg,David Treguer,and Adrien Vogt-Schilb.2016.Shock Waves:Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty.Climate Change and Development.Washington,DC:World Bank.Heininen,Lassi,Heather Exner-Pirot,and Jol Plouffe,eds.2015.Redefining Arctic Security:Artic Yearbook 2015.Akureyi:Northern Research Forum.Nhemachena,Charles,and Rashid Hassan.2007.“Micro-Level Analysis of Farmers Adaptation to Climate Change in Southern Africa.”IFPRI Discussion Paper,International Food Policy Research Institute,Washington,DC.Ouraich,Ismail,Hasan Dudu,Wallace E.Tyner,and Erol H.Cakmak.2019.“Agriculture,Trade,and Climate Change Adaptation:A Global CGE Analysis for Morocco and Turkey.”Journal of North African Studies 24(6):96191.doi:10.1080/13629387.2018.1463847.Pauw,Karl,James Thurlow,and Dirk van Seventer.2010.“Drought and Floods in Malawi:Assessing the Economy-wide Effects.”IFPRI Discussion Paper 00962,International Food Policy Research Institute,Washington,DC.https:/_ifpridp009621.pdf.Shakoor,Usman,Abdul Saboor,Ikram Ali,and A.Q.Mohsin.2011.“Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture:Empirical Evidence from the Arid Region.”Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences 48(4):32733.https:/.pk/papers/1966.pdf.Shiryaevskaya,Ana,Laura Millan Lombrana,and Olga Tanas.2020.“Longest Arctic Shipping Season Tops Off a Year of Climate Disasters.”Bloomberg,December 13.https:/Kaveh Madani.2016.“Future Climate Impacts on Maize Farming and Food Security in Malawi.”Scientific Reports 6:36241.doi:10.1038/srep36241.WMO(World Meteorological Organization).2021a.“2020 Was One of Three Warmest Years on Record.”Press release,January 15.https:/public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/2020-was-one-of-three-warmest-years-record.WMO(World Meteorological Organization).2021b.WMO Atlas of Mortality and Economic Losses from Weather,Climate and Water Extremes(19702019).WMO-No.1267.Geneva:WMO.https:/library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=10769.72Low-and Middle-Income Countries,Carbon Emissions,and TradeTrade,global value chains,and emissionsThe suggestion that increased trade automatically increases greenhouse gas emissions is popular but not squarely true,as increased trade over time in the right types of goods and services,along with complementary regulations,can benefit the environment.The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)captures this relationship perfectly.More spe-cifically,the EKC hypothesis is often used to explain the phenomenon that environ-mental degradation occurs with increasing economic growth until the country attains middle-income status,after which the environmental impacts start to decline.This relationship often happens through three independent effects on green-house gas emissionsscale,composition,and technique.The World Trade Organization(WTO)defines the“scale”effect as the change in the amount of emis-sions attributed to the increased output or economic activity resulting from freer trade;the“composition”effect refers to the change in the mix of a countrys production,in the wake of trade liberalization,toward those products where it has a comparative advantage;and the“technique”effect alludes to the changes(mainly improvements)in energy efficiency derived from opening trade,which reduces the amount of green-house gas emissions from the production of goods and services.Notably,environmental economists have debated the validity of the EKC hypoth-esis,with some doubting the U-curve relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation(Das Neves Almeida et al.2017;zokcu and zdemir 2017).However,other researchers have reinforced this theory(Hanif et al.2019;Ulucak and Bilgili 2018,among others).In fact,in examining the relationship between economic development and environmental degradation based on the EKC,Maneejuk et al.(2020)find that the EKC hypothesis is valid in 3 out of the 8 international eco-nomic communities covering 44 countries across the worldnamely,the European Union(EU),the G-7,and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD).THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS8Although the growth of trade and integration into global value chains has slowed since the financial crisis of 2008,countries that are deeply plugged into global value chains experience greater economic benefits;global shocks threaten this kind of integration.Over the past two decades,structural changes occurring in the global economy have reshaped global production and international trade,lead-ing to the rise of global value chains.An estimated 70 percent of international trade flows are plugged into global value chains today.Trade has grown at a slower rate,and the growth of global value chains has slowed as well,mainly due to increasing nationalistic tendencies,an uptake in digitalization,and country-specific concerns about sustainability(Zhan,Casella,and Bolwijn 2020).Moreover,the past two years have witnessed unprecedented global shocks from deepening trade tensions related to the COVID-19 pandemic.These shocks have disrupted global value chains and led to calls for the public and private sectors to rethink their policies.The pandemic has revealed the extent to which supply and value chains can transmit a crisis across countries.While world trade shows signs of rebounding,recovery is still uncertain and could be disrupted by ongoing pandemic effects,so it is important to make these global value chains sustainable and ensure that growth is resilient to external shocks.In addition,the pandemic has led to a shortage of production factors such as labor and capital,slowing down production in large,coronavirus-affected economies such as China,Europe,and the United States,which are at the center of global manufac-turing and trade networks.The slowdown in these countries production inevitably leads to significant supply-chain interruptions(Lenzen et al.2020),causing world-wide reductions in production and consumption(Cui et al.2020).In addition,cur-rent trade is likely to fall more steeply in sectors characterized by complex value-chain links,particularly in electronics and automotive products and in services trade,which have already suffered a 23 percent decline.Given these trends,the WTO estimates a 5.3 percent decline in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2020,followed by an 8.0 percent rise in 2021(WTO 2021).Clearly,if a health disaster can be transmitted along the chains,a climate change crisis could follow the same path.Studies have already shown that emissions embodied in production from one coun-try are often transferred to another.Given the transfer of emissions from low-and middle-income to high-income countries along global value chains,it is important to understand the country-specific territorial emissions embedded in exports.Globally,according to the latest estimates,carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions associated with the production and distribution of traded goods and services(8 billion tons)constitute a quarter of total global emissions(32 billion tons)(Banque de France 2020).Additionally,high-income nations collec-tively have higher consumption-based emissions(the United States imports 15 percent of the 8 billion tons for consumption)than territory-based emissions,meaning that they are net importers of emissions and thus benefit from carbon-intensive production abroad(Arto and Dietzenbacher 2014).These effects are growing over time,and the net transfer of emissions(production minus consumption)via international trade from high-income to low-and middle-income countries increased by a factor of four between 1990 and the 2008 global financial crisis,exceeding the emissions reductions obtained within the Kyoto Protocol(Peters et al.2011).Policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions can increase a countrys participation in global value chains,but the environmental effects of trade will depend on low-And mIddlE-InComE CoUntrIES,CArBon EmISSIonS,And trAdE9complementary policies and regulations.For example,Wu,Guisheng,and Baogui(2020)find that causality between participation in global value chains and CO2 emis-sions has different aspects at the global and regional levels.At the global level,a feed-back causal relationship exists between participation in global value chains and CO2 emissions.Environmental policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions will boost partici-pation in global value chains,while policies such as trade-related industrial innovation policies will cause environmental degradation.The causality from participation in global value chains to CO2 emissions is unidirectional.Participation in global value chains is raising CO2 emissions in the Asia-Pacific region,indicating that global-value-chain policies could lead to environmental damage.However,in Sub-Saharan Africa,environmental policies are encouraging participation in global value chains.Therefore,to promote participation in global value chains and reduce emissions,trade policies should consider technological innovation that reduces traditional energy consumption and increases renewable energy consumption.Environmental effects could arise from a combination of real income effects that will increase damages,an efficiency effect that will reduce damages,and leakage or externality effects that may increase or decrease damages.Consequently,understanding the emissions structure of low-and middle-income countries and identifying appropriate policies for increasing their participation in global value chains while simultaneously leading to positive envi-ronmental outcomes are critical.Understanding emissions from the developing worldProfile of the emerging emittersLow-and middle-income countries have been carbonizing increasingly in recent years,collectively emerging as the worlds third top emitter of emissions,after China and the United States.These increasingly carbonizing countries are called“emerging emit-ters.”Figure 2.1 compares the percentage changes over 201018 in annual CO2 emis-sions and gross domestic product(GDP)among the 59 emerging emitters;map 2.1 shows their GDP per capita and annual CO2 emissions growth rate.1 The average annual growth rate of emissions of the 59 emerging emitters was 6.2 percent in 201018much higher than the 2.0 percent worldwide average and higher than the 4.6 percent annual growth rate of these same countries GDP,reflecting the rising carbon-ization of their economies.Located in Africa,Asia,and Latin America,individually these countries emitted between 0.7 million and 542.9 million tons of CO2 in 2018(bounded by Eritrea and Indonesia,respectively).However,taken together,the coun-tries emissions grew by 40.7 percent in the period under studyfrom 2.7 gigatons to 3.8 gigatons of CO2.Moreover,the 1.1 gigaton increase in emissions accounts for 38.9 percent of the global increase in emissions over the period.Figure 2.2 compares these same figures with those for China,India,and the United States over the period 201018.By comparison,the CO2 emissions of China,the United States,and India amounted to 9.6 gigatons,4.9 gigatons,and 2.3 gigatons,respectively,in 2018.The aggregated GDP of emerging emitters in 2018(in 2010 constant US dollars)amounted to US$8.2 trillion,compared to the 2018 GDP for China,India,and the United States of US$10.9 trillion,US$2.8 trillion,and US$17.9 trillion,respectively.The annual growth of CO2 emissions of China,India,and the United States was 2.5 percent,4.9 percent,and 1.0 percent,respectively.The annual THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS10GDP growth rates of the entire world(average),China,India,and the United States were 3.14 percent,7.5 percent,6.7 percent,and 2.3 percent,respectively.Emerging emitters have significantly lower levels of GDP per capita than the world average as well as higher levels of poverty.While they comprise countries in development categories ranging from the lowest-income countries to economies in transition,in most cases,their GDP per capita is substantially lower than the global average(53 countries have GDP per capita below US$11,000 in constant 2010 US dollars).In 2017,698 million people in these countries were living in absolute pov-ertythat is,earning less than US$1.90 per day in purchasing power parity(PPP)value.This figure represents 9.3 percent of the global population.Among the 59 emerging emitters,emissions grew faster than GDP in 34 countries(58 percent)and twice as fast as GDP in 12 countries(20 percent).In 25 other countries(42 percent),economic growth outstripped emissions growth,corresponding to decreasing carbon intensity.FIGURE 2.1 Changes in Annual CO2 Emissions and GDP of the 59 Emerging Emitters,20101813921GDP per capita(US$,thousands)CO2 emissions in 2018(million tons)606515CO2 emissions in 2018(million tons)1003005001:12:1Carbonizing1:12:1050 06%8%2%4%4%6%8%Annual growth rate of GDP(%)bbBotswanaCambodiaEthiopiaLao PDRMozambiqueMyanmarNepalTajikistanZambiaAlgeriaArmeniaAzerbaijanBangladeshCameroonChileCte dIvoireCongo,Dem.Rep.Egypt,Arab Rep.GhanaHaitiIndonesiaKenyaKyrgyz Rep.MaliMongoliaNicaraguaNigerNigeriaOmanPakistanPeruPhilippinesQatarRep.CongoSaudi ArabiaTurkeyTurkmenistanUgandaUnited Arab EmiratesVietnamEritreaAnnual growth of CO2(%)South SudanSource:Cui et al.2020.low-And mIddlE-InComE CoUntrIES,CArBon EmISSIonS,And trAdE11FIGURE 2.2 Co2 Emissions and gdP growth of 59 Emerging Emitters,China,India,and the United States,201018Source:Cui et al.2020.Note:CO2=carbon dioxide.59 emerging emittersChinaIndiaUnited States01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000201020112012201320142015201620172018a.CO2 emissionsCO2 emissions(million tons)GDP(2010 trillion US$)02E 124E 126E 128E 121E 131.2E 131.4E 131.6E 131.8E 13201020112012201320142015201620172018b.GDPMAP 2.1 rate of growth of Co2 Emissions,201018,and gdP per CapitaSource:World Bank.Note:CO2=carbon dioxide.IBRD 45515|AUGUST 20211369152165No data29.6(.5%2.5%0%5%GDP per capita(thousands of dollars)Annual growth rate of C02emissions,201018THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS12Drivers of recent emission surgesAcross all 59 emerging emitters,higher GDP per capita and population growth have been the most important drivers of emissions growth.Figure 2.3 shows the two main drivers and two main inhibitors of the rise in emissions between 2010 and 2018 for 20 countries in Africa,Asia,and Latin America.An increase in GDP per capita was the foremost driver of emissions increases in 44 percent of the countries,including Colombia,Ethiopia,and Vietnam.In the next 29 percent of the countries,including Lebanon and Uganda,population growth was the most significant driver.Following closely behind these socioeconomic factors were increases in the use of a particular fossil fuel,with increases in the use of either oil or coal as the most influential factors of emissions increases in 14 percent of the 59 emerging emitters,including Guatemala,Haiti,the Kyrgyz Republic,Myanmar,and Sudan.Energy intensity was one of the top two drivers of emissions growth in 12 percent of the countries,including Algeria and the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic.A decline in energy intensity was the most critical driver of emissions reductions.A rise in the CO2 emissions intensity of energy use contributed to emissions growth the most in 5 percent of the countries,including Botswana,Nepal,and Nicaragua.By comparison,a decline in energy intensity was the most influential driver of emissions reduction in a third(32 percent)of the countries,including Ethiopia,Mongolia,Uganda,and United Arab Emirates,followed by a fall in the CO2 emissions intensity of energy use in 20 percent of the countries,including Haiti,Peru,and Sudan,a smaller share of industrial value added in 15 percent of the countries,especially in Latin America and in some Asian countries,and a declining share of oil use in 15 percent of the countries,including Botswana and Nepal.Implications for global climate efforts and the role of trade policyEmerging emitters collectively have contributed extremely little to the overall stock of CO2 in the atmosphere,but they have come to the forefront of the growth of CO2 emis-sions over the past decade and will likely increasingly do so.These emissions will be influenced by strong and sustained economic growth,which is crucial for poverty reduction,and by population growth.Moreover,heavy consumption of carbon energy will continue to drive significant emissions growth from these countries.The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed more people into poverty,and the current depen-dence on traditional fossil fuels is likely to result in sizable carbon emissions.While COVID-related shutdowns are expected to reduce emissions in the next few years,countries will,regardless of the severity of the lockdowns,quickly return to a trajectory whereby emissions by 2040 will substantially exceed those in published scenarios that limit global warming to 2C.As such,there is urgency to revive growth quickly using tools that facilitate sustainable growth.These countries are confronting the massive challenges of achieving inclusive economic development,contributing to climate change mitigation,and adapting to rising global temperatures,changing precipitation patterns,and more extreme weather events.Indeed,these emerging emitters are the most vulnerable and least prepared to adapt to climate change.What is more,climate change will undermine their ability to reduce poverty because it will constrain their productivity growth,especially in low-And mIddlE-InComE CoUntrIES,CArBon EmISSIonS,And trAdE13FIGURE 2.3 Countries with Surging Emissions and their drivers,by region,201018Source:Cui et al.2020.Note:Emissions are expressed in millions of tons.The waterfalls show the drivers of emissions growth from 2010 to 2018,including factors increasing consumption(population,GDP per capita),factors affecting economic structure(industrial structure,including share of value added of primary,secondary,and tertiary industry and GDP energy intensity),and factors affecting carbon intensity(energy structure,including share of consumption of coal,oil,natural gas,and other fuels and CO2 emission intensity of energy).The total increment for each country is reflected at the base of the graph,e.g.,Ugandas emissions grew by 55.3 percent,mainly driven by population growth,between 2010 and 2018.CO2=carbon dioxide.20102018Ugandaa.AfricaPerub.Latin America and CaribbeanMongoliac.South and East AsiaLebanond.West and Central Asia20102018Time lag between 2010 and 2018Percentage Increment of Emission Growth201020182010201820102018EthiopiaColombiaVietnamSaudi Arabia20102018201020182010201820102018SudanHaitiMyanmarUnited Arab Emirates20102018201020182010201820102018AlgeriaGuatemalaKyrgyzstan201020182010201820102018NicaraguaBotswanaNepalAzerbaijan201020182010201820102018 55.3% 123.2% 25.9% 44.5% 15.5% 20.5% 15.0% 37.3% 62.9% 146.7% 43.5% 78.8% 290.9% 171.4% 38.3% 17.6% 24.5% 122.1% 31.54.3#.8%2.0!.4.0I.9.3.7%Industry30.8%PopulationOil shareEnergy intensity10.6%Population26.1%6.9%GDP per capita8.2.4%Population37.8%Population56.0%GDP per capitaEnergy intensity43.9%.9%GDP per capitaEnergy intensity21.6%PopulationPopulation22.3%PopulationPopulationPopulationCO2 intensityCO2 intensityCO2 intensityCO2 intensityGDP per capitaGDP per capitaGDP per capitaGDP per capitaAgricultureCoal share10.4%GDP per capitaCoal share8.6%Gas share10.5%Gas share 2.7%Gas shareIndustryGDP per capitaGDP per capitaGDP per capitaOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherOtherGas share 2.2%OtherOtherCoal shareOil shareOil shareOil share8.3.4%Coal shareCoal shareServicesOil shareServicesServicesIndustryGDP per capita7.3%IndustryIndustryIndustryIndustry9.9%IndustryIndustry12.8%IndustryEnergy intensityEnergy intensity10.2%Energy intensity11.6%Energy intensityEnergy intensityEnergy intensity24.7%Oil shareEnergy intensityEnergy intensityEnergy intensityCO2 intensity20.7%8.2w.6S.4%8.4.5.5.2r.47.9.9!.3$.6T.8.1(.2%0.8.0%6.1.6%7.3%9.9&.0S.4.0.1).0#.5S.34.3.2%7.5.4.7 102018 637.1%Lao PDRGDP per capita22.6.2%7.5.3%PopulationOil shareEnergyintensity155.02.2U.3%Industry 3.0%GDP per capitaOil share62.38.7%Coal shareGDP percapitaOtherCO2 intensityTHE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS14agriculture,and will require scarce resources to be redirected toward adaptation.Costinot,Donaldson,and Smith(2016),for example,compute that the impact of cli-mate change on agricultural productivity alone will result in a decline in welfare equiv-alent to almost 4 percent of GDP in Uganda and more than 6.5 percent of GDP in Vietnam.This scenario assumes that the patterns of trade and production will adjust to dampen the impact.If adjustment is constrained,losses could amount to more than 7.5 percent of GDP in Uganda and more than 11 percent in Vietnam.In order to limit global warming to 2C above preindustrial levels,the world will have to reduce emissions by 25 percent with respect to 2018 levelsan uphill task that requires unprecedented efforts from all countries.For this reason,adaptation will be critical.The emerging emitters are highly diverse in the absolute level of national CO2 emissions,the relationship between GDP growth and increases in CO2 emissions,the drivers of emissions growth,the response to the COVID pandemic,and the impact of alternative post-COVID pathways.Many of these countries are making commendable strides in enhancing the ambition of their nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement.However,in the post-COVID era,the outcomes from different pathways could lead to a difference of more than 1 gigaton in emissions from these countries.As many of these countries are already feeling the adverse effects of climate change and dealing with changing comparative advantages,adaptation mechanisms need to be at the forefront of the discussions.A global move toward a“low-carbon lifestyle”would entail significant changes in consumption and in how products are made.Low-carbon technologies are crucial to limiting the surge in emissions.The analysis shows that the adoption of low-carbon technologies can considerably influence future reductions in emissionswith early application of carbon capture and storage and renewable energy in the power sector and with electric vehicles replacing oil-fueled cars,the emerging emitters could reduce emissions by 600 metric tons of CO2 equivalent by 2040.2 However,while the adop-tion of new,low-carbon technologies can help to reduce the emissions of the emerging emitters,new technologies alone will not enable them to follow a sustainable pathway in line with the international consensus on the limits of global warming.Removing barriers to trade in the products that can support the move to a low-carbon future and facilitating the sharing of knowledge on how to implement the tran-sition can be important steps to support the efforts of low-and middle-income countries to reduce emissions.The challenge for the global community is to facilitate these economic transformations in ways that support sustained growth and poverty reduction.Doing so requires understanding the climate and development impacts of the policies(especially trade policies)being put forward as necessary to achieve global warming objectives.These policies include imposing domestic carbon taxes(PMR 2017)and carbon border tax adjustments;3 removing subsidies to fossil fuel produc-tion and consumption;reducing tariffs on trade in green goods;ensuring consistency between trade taxes on dirty and clean goods;4 and improving access to the technolo-gies,finance,and knowledge necessary to support global adoption of new,low-carbon sources of energy and less energy-intensive production.More generally,simultaneously addressing the challenges of ending extreme pov-erty,achieving inclusive growth throughout the world,and meeting climate goals will require cooperative solutions that consider both the development needs and emission realities of low-and middle-income countries.More specifically,while countries at all income levels refer to renewable energy,low-and middle-income economies often identify it as a priority.These emerging emitters need support from the global low-And mIddlE-InComE CoUntrIES,CArBon EmISSIonS,And trAdE15community to work toward achieving their commitments,especially in the form of large-scale and effective technology transfer,financing,and capacity strengthening.Further analysis can help to identify the coordinated policy measures that will allow countries to achieve their objectives regarding poverty reduction,structural transfor-mation,and adaptation to climate change,while stabilizing their emissions and con-tributing to meeting internationally agreed-on climate targets.Policy makers have paid little attention to trade measures as a tool for environ-mental policy,and this situation needs to change.According to a 2017 study of trade commitments undertaken in response to the Paris Agreement,“The major emitters and net exporters of carbon do not put a strong focus on trade or trade-related mea-sures”(Brandi 2017).However,several trade policies are related to climate,and a few are highlighted in this section,with an emphasis on tariffs,as restructuring tariffs could be the necessary first step for most governments in facilitating greener trade.Current tariff structures and nontariff barriers are biased toward dirty industries,thus implicitly subsidizing CO2 emissions.5 Shapiro(2020)finds that in most coun-tries the rates of tariffs and nontariff barriersfor both cooperative and noncoopera-tive tariffs and over several yearsare substantially higher on clean than on dirty goods.Tariffs and nontariff barriers differ for clean and dirty industries because indus-tries tend to be well organized,while final consumers generally are not.As a result,countries impose higher tariffs and nontariff barriers on downstream(clean)goods and lower tariffs and nontariff barriers on upstream(dirty)goods.In fact,firms often lobby for high protection for their own outputs but low protection for their intermedi-ate inputs.This skewed bias,resulting from trade policy,creates an implicit subsidy for CO2 generation.An industrys“dirtiness”in this analysis is defined by the total amount of CO2 emitted to produce a dollar of output.This implicit subsidy totals US$550 billion to US$800 billion per year,significantly higher than the direct global subsidies for fossil fuel consumption,estimated at about US$530 billion per year.Leveling the playing field by imposing similar tariffs and nontariff barriers on clean and dirty industries would have significant positive effects.Using a general equi-librium model,Shapiro(2020)postulates that if countries impose similar tariffs and nontariff barriers on clean and dirty industries,global CO2 emissions would fall,while global real income would remain unchanged or increase slightly.Further,and with significant effects,these changes in global CO2 emissions are of comparable scale to the estimated impacts of some of the worlds largest actual or proposed climate change policies.Evidence suggests that cutting tariffs in dirty sectors,without appropriate carbon policies,leads to higher emissions and more environmental pollution.If environmen-tal policies do not account for the emissions embodied in imports,global emissions are likely to rise(Kanemoto et al.2014).Islam,Kanemoto,and Managi(2019)find that a reduction in tariff barriers facilitates the relocation of factories to countries with less stringent environmental regulations.The carbon footprint of those emissions from low-and medium-income countries to high-income countries has grown rapidly over the past 30 years through international trade.However,almost all countries maintain their tariff barriers,and these tariffs limit the potential to increase CO2 emission trans-fers.The findings reveal that a 1 percent tariff cut by G-20 countries for mining gas,manufactured machinery,metal,and other mining imports would result in 2,779 tons,1,747 tons,1,453 tons,and,1,018 tons of CO2 emissions,respectively.Additionally,a tariff cut would increase the embodied CO2 emissions significantly for most of the manufacturing and mining sectors.He and Huang(2020)find that reducing import THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS16tariffs on final goods and intermediate inputs in the Central America Free Trade Agreement(CAFTA)could reduce firms pollution emissions through both the“tech-nique effect”and the“composition effect.”Thus,it is essential to make full use of both technique and composition effects to reduce emissions by reducing import tariffs in CAFTA.Trade agreements have traditionally described environmental regulations,but rarely address restructuring tariffs to promote cleaner goods or removing nontariff barriers to facilitate greener trade.The World Banks Deep Trade Agreement data-base 2.0 reveals that of all the trade agreements globally,the EUs trade agreements have attempted to include environmental provisions in the most significant way,cov-ering issues of institutions,cooperation,and welfare and including an enforcement mechanism.However,Shapiro(2020)finds that these agreements typically describe domestic environmental regulations or monitoring investments,but not patterns of tariffs and nontariff barriers.Many of these investments merely seek to prevent the relocation of dirty industries by barring the use of weak domestic environmental policies to lure dirty production across borders.Governments need to delineate the types of trade policies that affect the environment so that appropriate amendments can be made.A tariff restructuring biased toward lower duties for high-technology green sec-tors would have significant payoffs for low-and middle-income countries,both in terms of emissions and in terms of poverty rates(box 2.1).Taking the example of Bangladesh,a green-trade scenario could remove 45 metric tons of CO2 equivalent BOX 2.1 modeling Postpandemic Impacts under different trade ScenariosThis study defines three scenarios for trade patterns in the postpandemic era,based on the default COVID-19 scenario that the pandemic will last for three years:Deglobalization.Import tariff rates on all commodities(except for agricultural products)between all countries are increased by 30 percent.In this scenario,the competitiveness of domestic products increases,while the competitiveness of imported products decreases.The supply chain becomes more dependent on domestic products.Free trade.Import tariff rates on all commodities(except for agricultural products)between all countries are set to 0.In this scenario,all countries enjoy free trade.Green trade.Import tariff rates on products from carbon-intensive commodities(that is,light and heavy manufacturing,transportation equipment industries)between all countries are increased by 30 percent,and import tariff rates on products from high-tech industries between all countries are set to 0.Impact of trade scenarios on emissionsThe emissions trajectory and changes in energy structure under different trade patterns were estimated using a computable general equilibrium model that assesses carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions under different trade scenarios and energy mix projections from the Greenhouse GasAir Pollution Interactions and Synergies(GAINS)model.In selected low-income countries,results show that,although fossil fuels will still constitute the highest share of the 2040 energy mix,promoting greener pathways would significantly offset the rapid increment in emissions,which is inevitably brought about by a booming economy.Specifically,a green-trade scenario in renewable energies such as wind and solar would contribute significantly to a countrys emissions removal effort.In all countries,the reduction in emissions is significantly higher in the green-trade scenario than in the business-as-usual trajectory with no COVID-19.(Box continues next page)Low-and MiddLe-incoMe countries,carbon eMissions,and trade17BOX 2.1 Modeling Postpandemic impacts under different trade scenarios(Continued)Figure B2.1.1 shows the results of five scenarios(with COVID,no COVID,green trade,free trade,and deglobalization)for the evolution of CO2 emissions.Numbers marked on the left side of each line chart represent the maximum and minimum CO2 emissions of the five scenarios in 2040,respectively.To note,the International Energy Agency excludes biomass from its calculations of CO2 emissions.Therefore,biomass energy is included in the description of the current state of national energy structure but is neglected in the simulation of future emission and energy structure scenarios.Impact of trade scenarios on poverty alleviation in low-income countriesLinking a global economic model(Global Trade Analysis Project GTAP model)to a micro household survey data set makes it possible to assess the impact of COVID-19 and the potential impact of deglobalization in the postpandemic era on economic growth and achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal of eradicating extreme poverty.Results show that the capacity to alleviate poverty and ability to adapt to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis varies greatly among regions,especially for low-income countries.South American countries have a low poverty rate and a small population base;as such,the rate of decline in the poverty rate is relatively small.Specifically,when compared to deglobalization scenarios,free trade also contributes to poverty reduction,especially for people who are struggling under extreme poverty(figure B2.1.2).The panels show the poverty rate at different poverty lines for the five scenarios.Projections are available for 85 countries.FIGURE B2.1.1 co2 emissions in selected countries in the Postpandemic era under different trade Pattern scenarios,201940Sources:AghaKouchak et al.2020;Hu et al.2021.Note:COVID=with COVID-19 scenario;Deglobal=deglobalization scenario;Free trade=free-trade scenario;Green trade=green-trade scenario;SSP2=business-as-usual scenario.COVIDSSP2Green tradeFree tradeDeglobal48058068078088098020192021202320252027202920312033203520372039201920212023202520272029203120332035203720392019202120232025202720292031203320352037203920192021202320252027202920312033203520372039a.IndonesiaCO2 emissions(million tons)80 130 180 230 280310c.BangladeshCO2 emissions(million tons)230 280 330 380 430 480 530b.VietnamCO2 emissions(million tons)30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75d.PeruCO2 emissions(million tons)(Box continues next page)THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS18(accumulated value)of emissions by 2040,equal to 53 percent of national emissions in 2019.Notably,a free-trade scenario without a positive bias toward greener high-technology goods would increase emissions by 6.86 metric tons of CO2 equivalent.Facilitating trade for these types of products is critical.In addition,a deglobalization reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic would exacerbate the already worsening poverty BOX 2.1 modeling Postpandemic Impacts under different trade Scenarios(Continued)Taking Ethiopia as an example,18.3 percent(US$1.90 purchasing power parity PPP per day),37.6 percent(US$1.90$3.20 PPP per day),and 32.6 percent(US$3.20US$5.50 PPP per day)of the total population were living below these poverty lines in 2010.Due to the pandemics impact,the extreme poverty rate in Ethiopia will remain at 18.3 percent in 2021 in a default scenario but will decline to 7.9 percent in 2024.FIGURE B2.1.2 Poverty rate in Selected Countries in the Postpandemic Era under different trade Pattern Scenarios,202450Sources:AghaKouchak et al.2020;Hu et al.2021.Note:COVID=with COVID-19 scenario;Deglobal=deglobalization scenario;Free trade=free-trade scenario;Green trade=green-trade scenario;SSP2=business-as-usual scenario.01020304050607080Poverty rate(%)Yearb.Ethiopia02024202620282030203220342036203820402042204420462048205020242026202820302032203420362038204020422044204620482050202420262028203020322034203620382040204220442046204820502024202620282030203220342036203820402042204420462048205010203040506070Poverty rate(%)Yeara.Pakistan010203040506070Poverty rate(%)Yearc.Uganda01020304050607080Poverty rate(%)Yeard.Zambia$5.5$3.2$1.9DeglobalCOVIDSSP2Free tradeGreen tradelow-And mIddlE-InComE CoUntrIES,CArBon EmISSIonS,And trAdE19levels,increasing globally to 17 percent(US$1.90US$3.20 PPP per day)by 2040 from only 9.2 percent in 2017.The reduction in poverty is most significant under a free-trade scenariodropping to 2 percent(US$3.20US$5.50 PPP per day)(Hu et al.2021).Examining agriculture as one of the main trade-related sectors affecting emissions from the developing world The export structure of most low-and middle-income countries is based on agricul-ture,signaling agricultures critical importance for jobs,income,poverty reduction,and government revenue.However,the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)estimates that land-use changefor example,conversion of forest into agricul-tural landadds a net 1.6 0.8 gigaton of carbon per year to the atmosphere,which is similar to a quarter of emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production(Watson et al.2000).The expansion of large-scale commercial agriculture is often viewed as the culprit,but the collective emissions from subsistence farmers and out-growers6 also contribute significantly.Moreover,while agriculture exacerbates climate change(through deforestation and in other ways),it also suffers from the adverse effects of climate changeamong others,growing water scarcity.This section exam-ines the problem and provides suggestions on how trade can help to increase agricul-tural output sustainably while reducing land-use change.Impact of trade on land-use change and emissions,especially in low-income African countriesSince the advent of agriculture,natural forests and habitats have been cleared to engage in crop and animal production,but these changes in land use are contributing to grow-ing emissions.In more recent periods,clearing for industrial activities has also played a role,but not at commensurate levels.The United Nations Climate Change Secretariat defines land use,land-use change,and forestry(LULUCF),also referred to as forestry and other land use,as“a greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of GHGs greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced land use such as settlements and commercial uses,land-use change,and forestry activities.”7 The impacts of LULUCF on climate are directchanging the global carbon cycle.LULUCF activities either add CO2 to the atmosphere or remove it,thus bringing about changes in biodiversity and climate patterns.Since international trade involves mainly commodities produced where resources are most abundant,several countries clear forests to enable productive activities des-tined for export.On average,the harvest of one-fifth of global cropland area was des-tined for export in the 2000s,and almost all growth in cropland area was for internationally traded crops(Kastner,Erb,and Haberl 2014).Demand for the final and intermediate products made with forest-risk commodities is global,but produc-tion and associated land-use change are geographically decoupled from the associated demand(Henders,Persson,and Kastner 2015).Commodities whose production entails deforestation vary between regions and countries;in the case of Africa,they are largely livestock meat and some cereals.Specifically,production of cattle meat contributes just over a quarter,and the remain-der is from the production of a diverse mix of other cereals,roots and tubers,pulses,and other oilseeds(Pendrill et al.2019).In Latin America,the production of cattle THE TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS20meat accounts for more than 60 percent of embodied deforestation.In Asia and Pacific,the production of palm oil and forestry products each accounts for a third of embodied deforestation.For example,in Argentina,Brazil,Indonesia,and Malaysia,the production of soybeans and palm oil during the 19902014 period led to a forest loss of more than 60 million hectares.The problem:Increasing deforestation caused by fuel agricultural exports despite suboptimal productivity per acreage Tree cover loss has been significant in Africa,with the remaining primary forest cover mainly in the Democratic Republic of Congo and distributed sparsely in parts of West Africa and East Africa.Between 2001 and 2019,tree cover loss accelerated in Africa.The Democratic Republic of Congo experienced the greatest loss,ranking sixth in the world in terms of forest cover loss,losing 14.6 million hectares over the past two decades.The Democratic Republic of Congo is followed by Madagascar(3.89 million hectares)and Mozambique(3.29 million hectares),Cte dIvoire(3.03 million hect-ares),and Tanzania(2.51 million hectares).(The Russian Federation had the highest relative tree cover loss in the world,equivalent to 64.0 million hectares,which repre-sented 8.4 percent of tree cover in 2000.)Forests present a significant stock of global carbon,accumulated through the growth of trees and increase in soil carbon.Tampering with primary forestsconverting primary to managed forests,illegal log-ging,and unsustainable forest managementresults in greenhouse gas emissions and can have additional physical effects on the regional climate(IPCC 2019).In the past decade,the value of the poorest countries oil and gas exports has almost halved,whereas agriculture and textile manufacturing exports have increased gradually(figure 2.4).In 2019 oil and gas extraction exports were US$45.3 billion,down from US$85.1 billion in 2012.Agriculture and textile manufacturing exports FIGURE 2.4 Categories of Exports from the Poorest Countries to the world(mirror data),201219Source:International Trade Statistics(COMTRADE)data.0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 16020122013201420152016201720182019Value(US$billions)Manufactured textilesAgricultureForestryRecyclingFishingManufactured foodMiningOil and gas extractionElectricity,gas,and hot water supplylow-And mIddlE-InComE CoUntrIES,CArBon EmISSIonS,And trAdE21both increased by about US$5.0 billion,while average forestry exports amounted to US$1.8 billion over the same period.In Sub-Saharan Africa,land is used mostly for agriculture;between 1990 and 2018,agricultural land grew by 4 percent,while forest area declined by almost the same percentage.Africa is the only region where emissions due to agriculture and related land use are higher than those due to energy.Africa remains an agricultural powerhouse,and recent investments in large-scale commercial farming are having an adverse effect on the environment.By 2013,the value of agricultural production in Africa had tripled compared to levels in 1980;growth was almost identical to or lower than that of South America,but comparable to that of Asia(NEPAD 2013).Between 1990 and 2017,Africas agricultural emissions ranged from 1.7 million to 1.8 million gigagrams,fol-lowed by South America,which saw a substantial reduction over the same periodfrom 1.8 million to 1.1.million gigagrams.Globally,total emissions not associated with land use have been growing(except for Europe),driven largely by energy,espe-cially in low-income food-deficit countries and South Asia.Industrial processes have also been adding increasingly to CO2 emissions in these same regions.Europe is the only region exhibiting a decline in both total emissions(excluding land use)and energy.Although more land is being allocated to agriculture,yields are still very low,sig-naling that current output may have been achievable with less land-use change.The increase in agricultural output in Africa has been driven by the expansion of cropland rather than an increase in yields.For many crops,yields in Africa remain far below the averages obtained elsewhere in the world.For example,in Sub-Saharan Africa,the area of land dedicated to cereal production has been increasing since 1960,but up to 2017 yields did not grow by a commensurate amount(figure 2.5).More specifically,yields did not even double(growing by a factor of 1.8),while land hectarage almost FIGURE 2.5 Cereal Production versus Yield on Harvested land in Sub-Saharan Africa,19602016Source:Food and Agriculture Organization,Food and Agriculture Statistics Di
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IAS：将游戏玩家转变为消费者：广告商如何利用游戏环境提高消费者的购买意愿（英文版）（16 页）.pdf
将游戏玩家转变为消费者 研究广告商如何在游戏中营造积极情绪 Integral Ad Science 对美国成年游戏玩家进行了调查，以了解他们对游戏内广告的接受程度，并衡量他们对宣传接近风险或不安全游戏内容的品牌的看法。在这项研究中，我们深入探讨了游戏玩家认为有风险的内容类型，以及这种不安全的内容是否会影响消费者的购买决定。实地日期 2022 年 10 月 参与人数 n = 1,100 名美国成年游戏玩家 玩家到消费者转化研究 目标和设计 游戏玩家最常在移动设备上玩游戏，其次是游戏机 问：您通常使用哪些类型的设备？你用来玩电子游戏吗？ （选择所有适用项）63H$%MobileConsoleDesktopLaptopSmart TVQ。您每周玩视频游戏多少小时？游戏玩家通常每周花几个小时玩视频游戏56%的游戏玩家每周玩视频游戏的时间超过八小时17%多少小时您每周玩电子游戏吗？ 1-3 小时 4-7 小时 23% 8-12 小时 13-16 小时 17 小时 20% 益智和客厅游戏玩得最多，紧随其后的是射击游戏。问：哪个性别？你经常玩哪些电子游戏？最多选择 3 款益智和派对游戏射击平台角色扮演动作冒险模拟沙盒运动生存恐怖多人在线战斗竞技场实时战略374#!%9%大多数玩家对无干扰的游戏内广告持开放态度问。如果您正在考虑在线为游戏做广告，请说明您同意以下声明：我对游戏中的广告持开放态度，只要广告不打扰玩家的游戏体验（同意/强烈同意）。 - 游戏广告，只要广告不会中断游戏体验 69% 的游戏玩家对与周围内容上下文相关的游戏内广告持肯定态度。我更喜欢看到与我正在玩的游戏内容相关的游戏内广告（同意/强烈同意）；问：您从游戏内广告与游戏内内容相关的品牌购买产品或服务的可能性有多大？我在玩哪个游戏？ （可能/很可能）61% 的游戏玩家更喜欢看到与他们正在玩的游戏内容相关的广告。 57% 的游戏玩家可能会购买其广告与他们正在玩的游戏内容相关的品牌，但近四分之三的游戏玩家认为游戏内容可能对游戏玩家不安全。 content73%Q.您认为有哪些类型的游戏会宣传有风险的内容？Q.您认为以下哪些内容是品牌在附近投放广告的风险内容？风险最高的内容类型：70Y% 您认为以下哪些内容是品牌用于投放广告的风险内容？ #% 安全的广告投放对游戏玩家很重要，超过一半的玩家会关注出现在危险内容附近的广告。问：你有多大可能记得一个宣传几乎有风险内容的品牌？问：在考虑游戏内广告时，请表明您对以下陈述的同意程度。玩家说他们可能会记得一个宣传几乎是危险内容的品牌。游戏玩家表示，品牌宣传的内容会影响他们购买产品或服务的决定。在具有风险内容的游戏中宣传的品牌？表示他们可能会避免从宣传具有开创性的高风险游戏内容的品牌购买商品，并且大多数游戏玩家认为品牌应对在有毒游戏空间中投放广告负责 问。他们的广告出现在这些聊天/房间中发生恶意活动的地方？ （负责任/有点负责任）83% 的游戏玩家表示，品牌至少要对他们的广告出现在游戏中有害区域（例如语音聊天或聊天室）附近负一定责任1在他们的移动设备上玩视频游戏 82% 到 7% 的游戏玩家在移动设备上玩视频游戏 游戏玩家每周至少花 8 小时玩视频游戏 游戏玩家说他们更经常玩益智游戏和派对游戏2 ads69aW% 的游戏玩家对无干扰的游戏内广告持开放态度，并且玩家更愿意看到与他们正在玩的游戏内容相关的广告。游戏玩家可能会购买其广告与游戏内容相关的品牌。他们正在玩 3 主要发现 游戏玩家会注意到游戏内广告旁边的内容，这会影响品牌认知度和购买意愿。广告出现在有风险的内容旁边。玩家表示，他们可能会避免购买围绕高风险游戏内容做广告的品牌。 IAS 整体游戏内媒体质量解决方案如何开始品牌安全和资格解决方案无效流量可见性和测量即将推出以及 2023 年的更多内容
1人浏览过 2023-02-17 16页 5星
SDR Ventures：2022 年下半年农业综合企业并购趋势报告（英文版）（14 页）.pdf
Investment Banking&Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA&SIPC.DateDateTargetTargetBuyer(s)Buyer(s)SegmentSegmentAmountAmount($in Mil)($in Mil)TEV/TEV/RevRevTEV/TEV/EBITDAEBITDA1 2/1 5/2022AVS BioArlington Capital PartnersAnimal Health&Nutrition200.00-1 2/01/2022TingoMicronet Enertec TechnologiesAgricultural Tech&Services-1 1/30/2022Stoller GroupCorteva AgriscienceAgricultural Tech&Services1,200.003.0 x-1 1/28/2022Owensboro GrainCargillOilseeds&Ingredients-1 1/07/2022GGBThe Timken CompanyMachinery&Equipment305.001.5x-1 1/07/2022St.Louis Hydroponic CompanyGrowGeneration Diversified Agribusiness-1 1/01/2022Frontier LabsDeveronAgricultural Tech&Services2.20-1 0/27/2022Bellpark HorticultureAdeptag,LLR PartnersMachinery&Equipment-1 0/25/2022NaturalShrimpYotta AcquisitionProteins274.44-1 0/24/2022AgroFresh SolutionsPaine Schwartz PartnersAgricultural Tech&Services21 1.1 51.3x5.211 0/05/2022EnvuCinvenCrop/Turf/Ornamental Inputs 2,600.00-08/03/2022MeritorCumminsMachinery&Equipment3,595.000.8x8.0608/01/2022Heartland AgricultureTitan MachineryMachinery&Equipment95.50-If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.4 9 11 65 19 45 2 10 7 5-10 20 30 40 50 60 70Strategic63%Financial37%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0c-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Diversified AgribusinessCrop/Turf/Ornamental InputsAnimal Health&NutritionMachinery&EquipmentAgriproducts DistributionAgricultural Technology&ServicesDairyProduceProteinsOilseeds&IngredientsS&P 500 Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAArcher Daniels MidlandADM51,006$92.85$1 5.47.4.9%3.8%6.4%0.6x9.6x1 2.8x0.6x1 0.3xAndersonsANDE1,1 72 34.99 1 2.8%(9.6%)59.3%(3.8%)2.6%0.2x6.0 x8.8x0.2x7.6xLimoneiraLMNR21 6 1 2.21(7.4%)(1 8.6%)75.0%NMNM1.9xNMNM1.9x23.6xSegment Average6.9%3.1v.1%0.0%4.5%0.9x7.8x10.8x0.9x13.8xSegment M edian12.8%(9.6%)75.0%(0.0%)4.5%0.6x7.8x10.8x0.6x10.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMerck&Co.MRK281,302$1 1 0.95$28.8D.8.3%(1.7%)36.6%5.1 x1 3.9x1 8.4x5.2x1 2.3xZoetisZTS68,303 1 46.55(1.2%)(39.9%)59.3%6.3.3%9.1 x22.5x33.5x8.5x1 9.9xArcher Daniels MidlandADM51,006 92.85 1 5.47.4.9%3.8%6.4%0.6x9.6x1 2.8x0.6x1 0.3xIdexx LaboratoriesIDXX33,786 407.96 25.2%(38.0%)61.4%8.6).4%1 0.5x35.8x51.9x9.7x28.7xThe MosaicMOS1 4,937 43.87(9.2%)1 1.7U.3%(1 6.3%)32.0%1.0 x3.2x4.3x1.2x3.9xDarling IngredientsDAR1 0,031 62.59(5.4%)(9.7%)71.5%1 5.7.1%2.2x1 0.0 x1 4.0 x1.9x7.2xIngredionINGR6,420 97.93 21.6%1.3.1%1 5.0%1 2.0%1.1 x9.3xNM1.0 x8.0 xBalchemBCPC3,924 1 22.1 1 0.4%(27.6%)71.9%9.1!.3%4.7x22.0 x36.5x4.3x1 8.4xNeogenNEOG3,291 1 5.23 9.0%(66.5%)31.9v.6%1 2.9%5.5x42.9x44.8x3.1 x1 1.7xPatterson CompaniesPDCO2,721 28.03 1 6.7%(4.5%)79.4%2.7%5.7%0.5x9.1 x1 3.8x0.5xNMCentral Garden&PetCENT1,958 37.45 3.9%(28.8%)70.1%1.7%1 0.1%0.9x9.4x1 3.4x0.9xNMAemetisAMTX1 39 3.96(35.3%)(67.8%)24.7).8%(24.0%)1.4xNMNM1.1 xNMSegment Average5.8%(15.6%)67.8.6.1%3.6x17.1x24.3x3.2x13.4xSegment M edian6.5%(18.6%)70.8%7.5.1%1.8x10.0 x16.2x1.6x11.7xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDANomad FoodsNOMD3,001$1 7.24$21.4%(32.1%)64.1%4.5%1 4.2%1.6x1 1.5x1 1.5x1.6x8.3xSegment Average21.4%(32.1%)64.1%4.5.2%1.6x11.5x11.5x1.6x8.3xSegment M edian21.4%(32.1%)64.1%4.5.2%1.6x11.5x11.5x1.6x8.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDANutrienNTR37,933$72.92$(1 3.4%)(2.2%)62.2%(8.8%)34.1%1.4x4.0 x5.2x1.5x4.9xDowDOW35,462 50.39 1 4.7%(1 1.2%)70.1%(1 5.6%)1 7.9%0.8x4.6x6.5x1.0 x7.6xCF IndustriesCF1 6,71 5 85.20(1 1.5%)20.4q.2%(1 7.4%)55.4%1.8x3.3x5.6x2.2x4.4xFMCFMC1 5,721 1 24.80 1 8.1%1 3.6.5%8.4!.1%3.4x1 6.0 x21.6x3.1 x1 2.4xThe MosaicMOS1 4,937 43.87(9.2%)1 1.7U.3%(1 6.3%)32.0%1.0 x3.2x4.3x1.2x3.9xElement Solutions IncESI4,404 1 8.1 9 1 1.8%(25.1%)72.0%(5.1%)1 8.7%2.3x1 2.4x25.3x2.4x1 2.0 xScotts Miracle-GroSMG2,695 48.59 1 3.7%(69.8%)29.1%(1.6%)(8.7%)1.5xNMNM1.5x1 0.3xCentral Garden&PetCENT1,958 37.45 3.9%(28.8%)70.1%1.7%1 0.1%0.9x9.4x1 3.4x0.9xNMCompass MineralsCMP1,682 41.00 6.4%(1 9.7%)60.6%4.0%1 3.4%2.1 x1 5.5xNM2.0 x1 1.0 xAndersonsANDE1,1 72 34.99 1 2.8%(9.6%)59.3%(3.8%)2.6%0.2x6.0 x8.8x0.2x7.6xCVR PartnersUAN1,063 1 00.58(1 2.1%)21.6V.0%(54.6%)46.0%1.8x4.0 x4.2x4.0 x1 6.8xAmerican VanguardAVD642 21.71 1 6.12.5.5%8.7%1 0.8%1.3x1 2.1 x23.1 x1.2xNMIntrepid PotashIPI389 28.87(27.0%)(32.4%)23.7%(1 6.3%)41.0%1.0 xNM1.3x1.2x3.3xS&W SeedSANW64 1.49 1 04.1%(45.4%)51.4%1 3.0%(33.1%)1.6xNMNM1.4xNMChina Green AgricultureCGA54 4.04(29.6%)(57.5%)34.4%NM(42.7%)NMNMNMNMNMOrigin AgritechSEED42 6.95(1 9.7%)(3.1%)56.7%NMNM4.4xNMNMNMNMArcadia BiosciencesRKDA7 0.27(48.7%)(73.9%)1 0.2%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMSegment Average1.8%(16.4%)56.1%(7.4%)14.6%1.7x8.2x10.8x1.7x8.6xSegment M edian3.9%(11.2%)59.3%(4.4%)17.9%1.5x6.0 x6.5x1.4x7.6xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDADeereDE1 27,872$428.76$28.4%.0.6%3.6!.3%3.4x1 5.8x1 8.4x3.3x1 4.5xCNH IndustrialCNHI21,592 1 6.06 43.8%(4.9%)93.8%(35.9%)1 1.5%1.5x1 1.4x1 2.5x1.7x1 3.6xThe ToroTTC1 1,774 1 1 3.20 30.9%1 3.3.9%1 0.3%1 5.4%2.8x1 8.2x27.0 x2.5x1 6.8xAGCOAGCO1 0,346 1 38.69 44.2%1 9.5.3%1 7.0%1 0.5%1.0 x9.6x1 2.3x0.9x6.9xValmont IndustriesVMI7,054 330.67 23.12.0.6%9.5%1 1.5%1.9x1 6.8x30.0 x1.8x1 3.3xAdvanced Drainage Systems WMS6,792 81.97(34.1%)(39.8%)53.4%(5.2%)25.4%2.4x9.5x1 5.2x2.5x8.7xLindsayLNN1,792 1 62.85 1 3.7%7.1.0%0.7%1 4.5%2.4x1 6.2x27.4x2.3xNMAlamo GroupALG1,694 1 41.60 1 5.8%(3.8%)88.1%7.3%1 2.1%1.4x1 1.2x1 8.3x1.3x9.8xTitan InternationalTWI963 1 5.32 26.29.8w.3%4.6%1 2.6%0.6x4.8xNM0.6x5.1 xTitan MachineryTITN902 39.73 40.6%1 7.9.6%1 9.6%7.8%0.6x7.7x8.5x0.5x7.2xSegment Average23.3.6.1%3.1.3%1.8x12.1x18.8x1.7x10.6xSegment M edian27.3.6.9%5.9.3%1.7x11.3x18.3x1.7x9.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAIdexx LaboratoriesIDXX33,786$407.96$25.2%(38.0%)61.4%8.6).4%1 0.5x35.8x51.9x9.7x28.7xIterisITI1 33 3.1 1 4.7%(22.3%)72.7 .0%(9.3%)1.0 xNMNM0.8x1 0.0 xOrigin AgritechSEED42 6.95(1 9.7%)(3.1%)56.7%NMNM4.4xNMNMNMNMArcadia BiosciencesRKDA7 0.27(48.7%)(73.9%)1 0.2%6.0%(1 83.0%)NMNMNMNM1.0 xSegment Average(9.6%)(34.3%)50.2.6%(54.3%)5.3x35.8x51.9x5.2x13.2xSegment M edian(7.5%)(30.1%)59.1%8.6%(9.3%)4.4x35.8x51.9x5.2x10.0 xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDANutrienNTR37,933$72.92$(1 3.4%)(2.2%)62.2%(8.8%)34.1%1.4x4.0 x5.2x1.5x4.9xTractor SupplyTSCO24,851 224.97 21.0%(5.7%)93.1%1 2.6%1 2.5%2.1 x1 7.0 x24.5x1.9x1 4.6xScotts Miracle-GroSMG2,695 48.59 1 3.7%(69.8%)29.1%(1.6%)(8.7%)1.5xNMNM1.5x1 0.3xAndersonsANDE1,1 72 34.99 1 2.8%(9.6%)59.3%(3.8%)2.6%0.2x6.0 x8.8x0.2x7.6xSegment Average8.5%(21.8%)60.9%(0.4%)10.1%1.3x9.0 x12.8x1.3x9.4xSegment M edian13.2%(7.7%)60.7%(2.7%)7.6%1.4x6.0 x8.8x1.5x9.0 xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDASyscoSYY38,742$76.45$8.1%(2.7%)83.5%9.0%4.7%0.7x1 4.9x27.1 x0.6x1 1.8xUS FoodsUSFD7,651 34.02 28.7%(2.3%)85.6%8.5%2.8%0.4x1 4.1 xNM0.4x8.8xNomad FoodsNOMD3,001 1 7.24 21.4%(32.1%)64.1%4.5%1 4.2%1.6x1 1.5x1 1.5x1.6x8.3xUnited Natural FoodsUNFI2,31 6 38.71 1 2.6%(21.1%)75.7%3.4%2.5%0.2x8.2x1 0.0 x0.2x7.0 xFresh Del Monte ProduceFDP1,253 26.1 9 1 2.7%(5.1%)83.3%1.9%4.3%0.4x1 0.2x1 8.2x0.4xNMSpartanNashSPTN1,066 30.24 4.2%1 7.4.1%4.8%2.0%0.2x9.9x1 9.6x0.2x7.4xSunOptaSOY906 8.40(8.8%)22.1q.9%1 1.4%3.3%1.4x43.2xNM1.3x1 2.9xCalavo GrowersCVGW521 29.40(7.4%)(30.7%)64.6%0.3%1.3%0.5x39.1 xNM0.5x9.8xSeneca FoodsSENEA464 60.95 20.8.1.7%NM7.1%0.6x7.8x1 0.9xNMNMLimoneiraLMNR21 6 1 2.21(7.4%)(1 8.6%)75.0%(0.2%)6.7%1.9xNMNM1.9x23.6xAlicoALCO1 81 23.87(1 5.5%)(35.5%)54.7%(33.8%)34.2%3.2x9.4x1 4.5x4.9x1 7.0 xSegment Average6.3%(7.4%)75.2%1.0%7.6%1.0 x16.8x16.0 x1.2x11.8xSegment M edian8.1%(5.1%)75.7%4.0%4.3%0.6x10.9x14.5x0.6x9.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAArcher Daniels MidlandADM51,006$92.85$1 5.47.4.9%3.8%6.4%0.6x9.6x1 2.8x0.6x1 0.3xFMCFMC1 5,721 1 24.80 1 8.1%1 3.6.5%8.4!.1%3.4x1 6.0 x21.6x3.1 x1 2.4xDarling IngredientsDAR1 0,031 62.59(5.4%)(9.7%)71.5%1 5.7.1%2.2x1 0.0 x1 4.0 x1.9x7.2xIngredionINGR6,420 97.93 21.6%1.3.1%1 5.0%1 2.0%1.1 x9.3xNM1.0 x8.0 xSensient TechnologiesSXT3,065 72.92 5.2%(27.1%)71.7%3.7%1 7.4%2.5x1 4.4x22.1 x2.4x1 3.8xSunOptaSOY906 8.40(8.8%)22.1q.9%1 1.4%3.3%1.4x43.2xNM1.3x1 2.9xAemetisAMTX1 39 3.96(35.3%)(67.8%)24.7).8%(24.0%)1.4xNMNM1.1 xNMSegment Average1.5%(4.3%)74.0.6%8.3%1.8x17.1x17.6x1.6x10.8xSegment M edian5.2%1.3q.9.4.0%1.4x12.2x17.8x1.3x11.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAHormel FoodsHRL24,890$45.55$0.2%(6.7%)82.7%2.4%1 2.6%2.2x1 7.3x25.0 x2.1 x1 6.5xTyson FoodsTSN22,275 62.25(5.6%)(28.6%)61.8%4.9%1 0.7%0.6x5.2x7.0 x0.5x6.4xPilgrims PridePPC5,61 1 23.73 3.1%(1 5.9%)68.5%(2.2%)1 0.0%0.5x4.9x6.1 x0.5x8.0 xPingtan Marine EnterprisePME34 0.40(52.7%)(30.4%)35.7%NM1 9.2%2.4x1 2.3x20.0 xNMNMSegment Average(13.7%)(20.4%)62.2%1.7.1%1.4x9.9x14.5x1.1x10.3xSegment M edian(2.7%)(22.2%)65.1%2.4.7%1.4x8.8x13.5x0.5x8.0 xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB%9%9FRGIA567%8%8%9%5QWUX9G96%8%6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSub DebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:The most current source of GF Data is as of November 2022.MultiplesSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics2019202120202022*$0.0M$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B$500.0B$600.0B1,3002,3003,3004,3005,3006,3002021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q4Deals ClosedDeals ClosedCapital Invested6.1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x7.0 x7.1x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x9.3x8.6x9.0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10.0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm1.“Vertical Farming Startup Fifth Season Shuts Down,”AFN,Jennifer Marson,Nov.2,2022 https:/Water War Is Brewing Over the Dwindling Colorado River,”Propublica,Abraham Lustgarten,Dec.22,2022 https:/www.propublica.org/article/colorado-river-water-uncompahgre-california-arizona3.“Storms Hammer Major California Farming Areas,While Offering Drought Relief,”AgriPulse,Brad Hooker,Jan.18,2022 https:/www.agri-In Agriculture And Food And Its Vital Role In Fighting Climate Change,”AFN,Ariadne Caballero and Juliana De Podesta,Jan.4,2023 https:/Deere Commits To Letting Farmers Repair Their Own Tractors(Kind Of),”The Verge,Emma Roth,Jan.9,2023 https:/Prices Fall to Lowest in 19 Months as Gas Drops,”Bloomberg,Elizabeth Elkin,Jan.6,2023 https:/To The Last Steel Mill In Town,A Robotic Farm Grows Backed By Pritzker Billions,”CNBC,Rebecca Fannin,Mar.5,2022 https:/Farming Is Headed For The Trough Of Disillusionment.Heres Why Thats A Good Thing,AFN,Henry Gordon-Smith,Dec.14,2021 https:/Farming Has Found Its Fatal Flaw,”Wired,Matt Reynolds,Dec.22,2022 https:/Twain:On Weather And Climate,”The Weather Doctor,undated,accessed Jan.20,2023 http:/www.heidorn.info/keith/weather/arts/twain2.htm11.“Economic Impacts of the 202022 Drought on California Agriculture,”California Department of Agriculture,JosuMedelln-Azuara et.al,Nov.22,2022 Microsoft Word-Economic_Impact_CA_Drought_V02.docx(ucmerced.edu)12.“Almonds Swept California Farms.Then the Water Ran Out,”Wall Street Journal,Jesse Newman,Jul.5,2021 https:/Inundates Salinas,California The Salad Bowl Of The World,”AgDaily,Jan.12,2023 https:/We Can And Cannot Collect Rainwater In Places Like California,”NPR,All Things Considered,Mary Louise Kelly and Erika Ryan,Jan.6,2023 https:/www.npr.org/2023/01/06/1147545820/why-we-can-and-cannot-collect-rainwater-in-places-like-california15.“How Torrential Downpours Make It Harder For California To Save Water,”Vox,Umair Irfan,Jan.17,2023 https:/Agriculture Technology Can Reduce the Harmful Impacts of Drought,”Global Farmer Network,Marco Aurelio Pasti,Dec.15,2022 https:/globalfarmernetwork.org/2022/12/science-based-agriculture-technology-can-reduce-the-harmful-impacts-of-drought/17.“War And Drought Drove Global Food Prices To Record High In 2022,”NBC News via Associated Press,Jan.7,2023 https:/and Soybean Prices Witness a Meteoric Drop in South America,”Chemanalyst,Jacob Kutchner,Dec.6,2022 https:/Deere Vows To Open Up Its Tractor Tech,But Right-To-Repair Backers Have Doubts,”National Public Radio,Joe Hernandez,Jan.10,2023 https:/www.npr.org/2023/01/10/1147934682/john-deere-right-to-repair-farmers-tractors20.“How Much Does the X9 1100 Combine Cost?”MachineryPete,May 12,2022 https:/Signs Agreement to Acquire Stoller Group,”Corteva Press Release,November 30,2022.https:/Schwartz Partners to acquire AgroFresh Solutions”,November 29,2022.https:/Schwartz Makes Strategic Investment in HGS BioScience(Formerly Humic Growth Solutions),”September 20,2022.https:/Water Woes Spark Colorado Rush To Conserve Liquid Gold”CNBC,via Reuters,Mar.16,2022 https:/
1人浏览过 2023-02-17 14页 5星
德勤：中国共产党二十大后国民经济和行业机遇展望报告（2022年）（英文版）（15页）.pdf
Economic and Industry Outlook after the 20th CPC National Congress Deloitte China December 2022 The Report to the 20th National Congress of the CPC(the Report)serves as the guiding document for national development.It lays out goals for various areas over the next five years,ten years and beyond.Based on the objectives set out in the Report to the 19th National Congress of the CPC and those in the 14th Five-Year Plan,the Report draws out the pathway for effectively realizing socialist modernization.In other words,from getting rich to becoming strong.Against this backdrop,companies in China will seek to deepen reform and take significant strides on the road to high-quality development and building world-class enterprises.In the following sections,we will summarize the overriding agenda for future development,assess the implications for the macroeconomy and specific industries,and identify opportunities for companies in the future.First propose the Chinese path to modernization and underscore security and innovation The concept of the Chinese path to modernization first appeared in the report to the National Congress of the CPC.The Report identifies that the central task of the Communist Party of China is to lead the Chinese people of all ethnic groups in a concerted effort to realize the Second Centenary Goal of building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects and to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization.The Chinese path to modernization involves the modernization of a huge population,common prosperity for all,material and cultural-ethical advancement,harmony between humanity and nature,and peaceful development.When the country embarks on a new journey,the Report,in light of actual conditions,emphasizes the coordinated development of material advancement,spiritual advancement and ecological conservation.The priorities of the 14th Five-Year Plan remain the highlights of the Report.Security,innovation,reform,international,and technology were frequently mentioned in the 14th Five-Year Plan.They continue to be featured throughout the Report.Security and innovation appear most frequently,indicating that they are critical to high-quality development,touching on all aspects of economic and social development.This also shows Chinas determination and resolve to seek high-quality development in response to severe and intricate international developments.Fig.1 Comparison of the most frequently used terms Source:Note:The word frequency of the Report is converted based on the length of the 14th Five-Year Plan relative to that of the Report New chapters were added to address the issue of invigorating China through science and education,law-based governance,and national security.Compared to the Report to the 19th National Congress of the CPC,the Report added three chapters in the area of development measures,including Invigorating China through Science and Education and Developing a Strong Workforce for the Modernization Drive,Exercising Law-Based Governance on All Fronts and Advancing the Rule of Law in China,and Modernizing Chinas National Security System and Capacity and Safeguarding National Security and Social Stability.This signifies the importance of science and education,the rule of law,and security.The Report further clarifies the focus of creating a new development pattern.The Report included the Creation of a New Development Pattern into the Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035 and required accelerated efforts to foster a new development pattern that is focused on the domestic economy and that features positive interplay between domestic and international economic flows.It also states that the country should boost the dynamism and reliability of the domestic economy while engaging at a higher level in the global economy.Boosting the domestic economy will need to focus on expanding domestic demand,optimizing supply structures and removing obstacles.Refining systems,enhancing structures and deepening cooperation are the top priorities for engaging in the global economy in order to further facilitate smooth flows in the domestic economy.181 107 99 88 86 1821701209189050100150200SecurityInnovationReformInternationalTechnologythe Reportthe 14th Five-Year Plan Seven key trends of economic development We find seven trends that stand out in the Report.These are the real economy,high-quality opening up,expanding domestic demand,scientific and technological innovation,green development,security,and common prosperity.The real economy is the focus of modernizing the industrial system.According to the Report,the country will continue to focus on the real economy in pursuing economic growth.The manufacturing sector will attach importance to industrial reengineering projects,research projects on major technologies and equipment,and developing companies that use special and sophisticated technologies.The services sector will be further integrated with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture,while the digital economy will be further integrated with the real economy and internationally-competitive digital industrial clusters will be built.High-quality opening up underscores institutional opening up and Chinas transformation into a trader of quality.Regarding institutional opening up,it is imperative for China to actively align with high-quality international economic and trade rules,and create the institutional system and regulatory framework to accompany high-quality international rules.In terms of trade development,the country will seek to upgrade trade in goods while developing new mechanisms for trade in services.Digital trade will be promoted to accelerate Chinas transformation into a trader of quality.To attract foreign investment,the country underlines the importance of improving the investment structure for foreign businesses and encourages investment in advanced manufacturing and high and new technology.In light of this,multinational companies may make use of their abundant experience in operations,seize opportunities and actively engage in Chinas high-quality opening up.They can do this by setting up research and development centers in China,collaborating with local businesses to accelerate technological innovation,driving the green transformation across the supply chain in line with international environmental protection standards to achieve industry-specific dual carbon goals,remaining committed to the vast Chinese market,and tapping into the enormous potential to create better conditions for development in China.Expand domestic demand while pursuing supply-side structural reform.The Report states that the implementation of the strategy to expand domestic demand is to be integrated with the efforts to deepen supply-side structural reform,to boost the dynamism and reliability of the domestic economy.As consumption is of fundamental importance to economic growth,expanding domestic demand can better leverage the guiding role of consumption and investment in stimulating supply-side structural reform.Improving supply quality and increasing effective supply should be the focus of supply-side structural reform to better meet the peoples ever-growing needs for a better life.Education,technology,and talent go hand in hand with greater significance.For the first time,the Report put the strategy for invigorating China through science and education,the workforce development strategy,and the innovation-driven development strategy within the same chapter.This follows on from the chapter on high-quality High-quality development Scientific and technological innovation Common prosperity Green development Security High-quality opening up Expanding domestic demand Real economy development,recognizing the interconnectivity of education,technology,and talent as key elements of a systematic approach.It highlights the urgency of transitioning the driving forces of development and the necessity of independent innovation amid the situation emerging both inside and outside of China.Talent is inseparable from creating a new development pattern,fostering new growth drivers,and building a new competitive edge.With increasing uncertainty in the international environment,rapidly improving the ability to conduct independent research and making breakthroughs in core technologies is the proper response to overcoming bottlenecks.High-quality opening up requires moving faster to build global hubs for talent and creating comparative strengths in global competition for talent to support industrial upgrading throughout China.Pursue green development and promote harmony between humanity and nature.A major trend is the transition to a model of green development and the development of a system for new energy sources,which requires a well-planned and step-by-step approach,as well as measures to ensure a stable energy supply and an optimized energy mix to facilitate a smooth and secured transition.The clean and efficient use of fossil fuels has received much attention.New energy development will accelerate,not slow down.Integrating the development of digital technology with the construction of the power grid and facilities for energy storage and replenishment will foster new forms of business and enable the creation of innovative green cooperation and solutions.Development security is underscored.The Report proposed to ensure the security of food,energy,and resources as well as key industrial and supply chains.Making sure that Chinas total area of farmland does not fall below the redline of 120 million hectares and reducing seed dependency will be the top priority concerning food security.Reducing oil and gas dependency and solidly advancing the new energy strategy will be placed front and center of energy security.The security of industrial chains will be achieved by resolving bottlenecks in key technological links of chips and core software,effectively integrating and controlling the resources for industrial chains with a focus on key areas and key links such as AI,quantum information,and integrated circuits.China will also need to enhance the resilience of industrial and supply chains and accelerate the development of an independent and controllable industrial system of next-generation information technology.Common prosperity becomes more relevant and vital.Since the 19th National Congress of the CPC,common prosperity has increasingly appeared in major documents.The Report further stated that common prosperity is an important feature of Chinese modernization.By proposing equality of opportunity and well-regulated means of accumulating wealth,concrete steps will be taken in various areas to address common prosperity.The Report reiterated that the country would keep distribution according to work as a mainstay,while ensuring more pay for more work and encouraging people to achieve prosperity through hard work.It made clear that,rather than seeking equality of outcome,promoting equality of opportunity should be the key.By regulating the means of accumulating wealth,it is expected that regulations restricting the income sources of and taxing high earners will be refined.Economic outlook Opportunities coexist with challenges amid a steady economic recovery Geopolitical tensions,together with the energy and food crisis,have increased the level of uncertainty in the international environment.Add in persistently high inflation and tightening monetary policies across developed economies and the global economy continues to lose steam.This inevitably creates several external challenges for Chinas economic growth.Following a weak performance in Q2,the Chinese economy is recovering with Q3 GDP growth at 3.9%and Q1-3 growth at 3%.Growth was led by consumption which contributed 1.2 percentage points of GDP growth.That said,the consumer confidence index remained below 90(compared to an average of 120 in 2020)due to recurrent COVID-19 outbreaks in Q2.It will take time for consumer confidence to recover further.The investment structure is improving,with investment in the high-tech industry increasing significantly faster than overall investment growth.In light of slowing real estate investments,it is crucial that policymakers find new growth drivers.Thanks to highly resilient supply chains,China maintains strong growth in foreign trade and continues to attract foreign investment,with exports in 2021 and the first ten months of 2022 growing at 30%and 11%respectively,while growth of foreign direct investment in 2021 and Q1-3 2022 stand at around 20%,underscoring the competitiveness of China-made products and the attractiveness of China for global production factors and resources.However,potential risks from weakening external demand behind the slip in October exports should be guarded against.After the 20th National Congress of the CPC,maintaining stable economic growth will become even more critical.As Omicron is weakening,the vaccination rate is increasing and the country is more experienced in fighting the pandemic.Optimized COVID-19 control measures are expected to be rolled out according to the situation at hand which will help boost consumer confidence.Key sectors outlook Consumer Products&Retail Expanding domestic demand requires accelerating the upgrading and expansion of consumption The Report proposed to expand domestic demand and better leverage the fundamental role of consumption in stimulating economic growth,while setting green consumption,common prosperity,and innovation-driven development as key priorities,which is a positive signal to the consumer market.The following areas can offer major opportunities for consumer products and retail.Extend green consumption to more areas and encourage green ways of consumption.Companies moving faster at living up to their green commitments and embedding green concepts into the whole process of product development and manufacturing will increase buy-in from consumers and receive more policy support.Expand opening-up and further promote cross-border e-commerce.The Report stressed that the country would remain steadfast in expanding and opening up.More support measures for new forms and models of foreign trade,including cross-border e-commerce,are expected to be rolled out.Improve consumption supply and spur consumption in lower-tier markets.Efforts in new urbanization and rural revitalization will facilitate the two-way flow of personnel and resources between urban and rural areas,with consumption supply to cities at all levels and rural areas to be improved to effectively promote consumption in lower-tier markets.Fig.2 Rural residents disposable income increased steadily and lower-tier markets have great consumption potential Source:National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBS)Digital technology enables innovation in forms and models of consumption.Under the innovation-driven development strategy,companies seeking to speed up their digital transformation while actively exploring emerging application scenarios are more likely to attract capital.Enhance consumer privacy and data security.In the Report,peoples security was held up as the ultimate goal.As relevant policies are to be rolled out and market regulation further tightened,companies need to strengthen consumer data protection,avoiding the negative impact of consumer data breaches.Auto Balancing innovation,security,and opening-up 14000150001600017000180001900020000201920202021Unit:yuan6.9.5%Double down on independent and groundbreaking innovation:The auto industry should achieve breakthroughs in electrical and intelligent technologies,adopt a long-term view,make forward-thinking plans for fundamentals and cutting-edge advances,and build a hub of auto innovation to attract companies from across the globe.Supply chain security should be based on better control instead of 100%independence:The intelligent electric vehicle industry will create a diverse supply ecosystem of crucial parts and technologies.On the one hand,this is critical to improving independent research and development capabilities,making steady progress to independently develop technologies and products in critical areas.On the other hand,exploring alternative solutions beyond mainstream technologies is essential.Fig.3 Ratio of chips made in China Source:TF Securities The dual carbon strategy in the auto industry will foster green investment opportunities:Automakers in China should rapidly work out plans to cut emissions across the supply chain and create a new competitive channel in green technology through product lifecycle decarbonization.They should also increase investments in energy conservation and emission reduction technologies,build a business model based around the circular economy,and increase the green premium of their brand.Further improve the environment for foreign investors to increase attractiveness for global innovation factors:The Chinese government will further improve the environment for foreign investors,and steadily expand institutional opening up concerning rules,regulations,management,and standards,attracting automobile and auto parts multinationals to invest in China and share the benefits of emerging technological development.Logistics Build a high-quality service system for international and domestic supply chains Develop a supply chain logistics system catering to dual circulation.Facilitate the smooth running of the foreign trade supply chain,support the development of cross-border e-commerce and overseas warehouses,expand normal cross-border mailing channels such as air,rail,and sea freight,and build up capabilities for the coordinated development of businesses,industries,and regions.1%3%4%8%8%Controller chips Sensor chips Memory chips Communication chips Power semiconductors Fig.4 Total export value of the cross-border e-commerce players in China in 2016-2022(RMB in 100m)Source:2021 report on Chinas cross-border e-commerce export logistics services Improve the quality of transportation services and achieve the goal of boosting Chinas strength in transportation.The country will work out plans to improve the comprehensive capabilities of infrastructure and facilitate the flow of production factors between urban and rural areas.It will also further adjust its transportation structure,promote multimodal transport,and increase the efficiency of the integrated transportation system.Build more resilient supply chains through digitalization.By adopting innovative applications and new models,data and business between upstream and downstream players can be connected and the operational efficiency and performance of logistics companies will be improved.Fig.5 Chinas smart logistics industry size in 2017-2022(RMB in 100m)Source:Chinas smart logistics market outlook and investment forecast 2022 Develop green logistics services.China should connect the links between warehouses,transportation,packaging,and recycling,introduce carbon footprint verification to the logistics industry,promote the development and adoption of green low-carbon technology,and develop green manufacturing and services.Finance Continue supporting key areas in the economy to safeguard financial stability and remain committed to reform and opening-up Continue with a prudent monetary policy.Keep M2 and Total Social Financing(TSF)in line with economic growth,and enhance the stability of total credit growth.Fig.6 Scissor gap of M2-TSF continues easing 010002000300040005000600070008000201720182019202020212022E050001000015000200002016201720182019202020212022ECAGR=42.3%Source:Peoples Bank of China(PBOC)The finance sector continues to support key areas and weak links.Weak areas include the eradication of absolute poverty and inclusive lending to small and micro businesses.Transformation and upgrading mainly focus on advanced manufacturing industries,specialized,sophisticated,distinctive,and innovative(SSDI),as well as green industries.Fig.7 Green and manufacturing loans,as well as inclusive lending,grow fast Source:PBOC Bank credit is still key to steady growth and credit easing.The six largest state-owned banks continue to play a leading role in supporting the real economy with improved and adjusted credit structures.The asset management industry picks up steam.As their income grows,Chinese residents show rising wealth management awareness and a stronger demand for asset allocation.Wealth management and pension management businesses will see rapid growth and innovation.Push forward the reform of the multi-tiered capital market.The work to increase direct financing will intensify,and the pace of comprehensive implementation of the stock offering registration system is expected to accelerate.Financial stability is emphasized,with risk prevention higher on the agenda.Develop direct financing and reduce the accumulation of risk in the banking system,while also establishing and improving the mechanism of using the financial stability facility.Deepen financial reform and opening up.Press ahead with supply-side structural reform and two-way opening-up in the financial sector.Participate in international financial governance and strengthen the rule of law in the financial sector.4.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.002019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-09(%)M2:同比社会融资规模存量:同比M2:YoY growthTSF(Stock):YoY growth-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0(%)绿色贷款制造业普惠金融住户贷款房地产业Green loanManufacturing loanInclusive lendingHousehold loanReal estate loanTechnology,Media&Telecommunications Foster an independent and controllable next-generation information technology industrial system and digital industrial ecosystem to achieve high-quality development of the digital economy Build a modern information technology industrial system by fostering growth drivers in key areas.Foster growth drivers in AI,quantum information,integrated circuits,and other key areas to promote Chinas international competitiveness.Meanwhile,keep improving originality and innovation in the industry,and accelerate Chinas growing strength in strategic areas of science and technology to address the issue of bottlenecks in core and critical technologies.Fig.8 Localization rate of key equipment and systems in science&technology and manufacturing in 2021 Source:NBS,Wind,and China Academy for Information and Communications Technology(CAICT)Create a dual circulation system of value and innovation chains.In terms of industrial chain development,advance efforts to build the dual circulation system and form an upstream and downstream network to support scientific breakthroughs and the application of industrial achievements.Improve the capability to optimize and integrate resources within industrial chains while heightening the modernization of supply chains and the degree of resilience to bring down emergent risks of specific links.Make the digital economy an accelerator of national economic development.In constructing digital information infrastructure,China should press ahead with 5G,the Industrial Internet,Internet of Things and other forms of new modern infrastructure to secure the base from which to develop the information industry.Information infrastructure will be innovated and upgraded to elevate industrial informatization,digitalization,and intellectualization to a higher level.China will firmly seize the opportunities arising from the development of the digital economy to gain the upper hand in building a modern industrial system.The digital economy will also be applied in the agricultural,industrial and transportation,and education fields among others in order to achieve integrated development of the digital economy and real economy and foster new growth drivers of economic development.Fig.9 Chinas digital economy structure in 2021 0%5 %05%Perception algorithmMemory chipMCU used in automobilesScientific instrumentOscilloscopeWireless communication chipOperating systemCADCPUFive-axis machine toolEDAFPGA chipElectrophysiology equipmentOptical filmDatabaseSemiconductor deviceSoft endoscopeMR(with maximum field strength over 3.0 T)Electronic test instrumentSemiconductor materialsNumerical control systemCT(with over 64 rows of detectors)Source:NBS,Wind,and CAICT Life Sciences&Health Care Accelerate the construction of a healthy China,improve the social security system and promote the development of both traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine Increase efforts on the Healthy China initiative and realize a people-centric development of pharmaceuticals and medical services:Carry out reform from both the supply and demand sides to address the problems of high drug prices and uneven resource distribution so as to ensure that people have access to comprehensive healthcare services.Keep advancing negotiations around national medical insurance and volume-based procurement to ensure the steady supply of drugs nationwide with both quality and quantity guaranteed,and further stimulate R&D breakthroughs of innovative drugs.Local pharmaceutical enterprises will exert more efforts to push forward R&D in world-class innovative drug products in China.Foreign pharmaceutical companies are expected to proactively include China in early-stage research on global innovation projects.Fig.10 Steady price drop of bid-winning products in volume-based procurement significantly reduced the burden of the national medical insurance fund and patients Source:GBI,National Medical Products Administration(NMPA),and Deloitte Research Fig.11 More innovative drugs included in the medical insurance catalog,stronger support for innovative drug R&D 5.26.26.47.17.58.417.42124.928.831.737.201020304050201620172018201920202021数字产业化（万亿元）产业数字化（万亿元）Digital industrialization(RMB in trillion)Industrial digitalization(RMB in trillion)52YSSRVIHt%4 7 initialpilot4 7expandedpilot2nd round3rd round4th round5th round6th round7th roundAverage dropMaximum drop Source:GBI,NMPA,and Deloitte Research Improve the social security system to cover the whole of society:Maintain a high coverage of health services,roll out supportive policies,and establish medical institutions to address an aging population and increase the birth rate.China will set up a comprehensive healthcare system with more specialized and personalized medical services for the elderly,pregnant women,infants,and other special groups,and build a more diversified and sustainable healthcare security ecosystem.Promote the innovative development of traditional Chinese medicine and create a new environment where both traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine thrive:Strengthen efforts to drive R&D breakthroughs in traditional Chinese medicine and its popularization,support the coordinated development of traditional Chinese medicine and Western medicine,and promote the innovation and preservation of traditional Chinese medicine.Manufacturing Focus on fostering strengths and shoring up weaknesses,promote opening up,and push harder on green manufacturing goals Enhance the resilience and security of industrial supply chains:Boost the resilience and security of industrial supply chains by fostering industrial clusters,investing in core technologies,improving regional supply chains,and enhancing supply chain transparency.Accelerate the development of SSDI enterprises:The Report explicitly voiced support for the development of SSDI enterprises.Various policies will be introduced to support the R&D and commercialization of highly specialized and core technologies.Domestic substitution becomes the primary strategy for some key technologies.Technology iteration accelerates small and medium-sized enterprises to enter the market,and the digital transformation of SSDI enterprises should speed up.Fig.12 Large listed corporations as a leading force of digital transformation with SSDI enterprises catching up in the race Source:White Paper on Digital Economy of Chinas Listed Companies(2022)010203040201620172018201920202021进口创新药本土创新药Imported innovative drugsDomestic innovative drugs74#%3%大型企业中型企业小型企业Large enterpriseMedium-sized enterpriseSmall enterpriseThe manufacturing sector will become the focus of foreign investment:Expand the scope of encouraged foreign investment projects in manufacturing,especially in high-tech equipment,green decarbonization,and industrial upgrading in the central,western and northeastern regions of China.Support high-tech manufacturing enterprises to go public:Support qualified foreign-invested enterprises to list on the A-share market and issue debenture bonds.Green transformation:Green manufacturing represents a new development paradigm of future manufacturing,driving the growth of green product design,supply chains,industrial parks and post-market services.The circular economy,shared manufacturing and other new models will also scale up.Fig.13 Green manufacturing priorities of local governments in the 14th Five-Year Plan Source:Government Public Information Energy and Resources Adopt a dual-track approach for energy security and the energy revolution Put energy security at the top of the agenda:The Report gave high priority to energy security and emphasized that the energy revolution should be carried out in an orderly manner in line with the principle of building the new before discarding the old.In this context,the clean and efficient use of fossil fuels has received much attention.Building a multi-wheel-driven energy supply system of wind,solar,nuclear,water,coal,oil,and gas resources is the ultimate orientation to ensure energy security.Thus,new energy development will speed up rather than slow down.Fig.14 Wind and solar power installed capacities surge in the 14th Five-Year Plan period 05101520253035省（市、自治区）数量Number of provinces(municipalities,autonomous regions)Source:Wind,Deloitte Research Technological innovation serves as the primary driving force behind the energy transition:The Report stated again that China will exercise better control over the quantity and intensity of energy consumption,and transition gradually towards controlling both the amount and intensity of carbon emissions.Under the guidance of cutting carbon emissions,the cleaner and more efficient way of utilizing energy represented by Combined Cooling,Heating,and Power technology,the Internet of Things,and other technologies that can help improve energy management efficiency,and carbon-negative technologies such as CCUS(carbon capture,utilization,and storage)are key to the transformation of the fossil energy sector.Meanwhile,Chinas dual carbon goals will significantly stimulate the energy consumption transition towards cleaner energy sources,especially in construction,industry,transportation,and other key energy-consumption sectors.Hydrogen and electrification technologies enabling energy end-use transition toward new energy sources are seeing opportunities.With the accelerated penetration of new energy,demand for green metals such as lithium and cobalt is thriving.Technologies that can improve the energy transformation,energy density,and recycling efficiency of these metals,such as battery cycling,will become a new growth area.Shifts in energy sales and supply urgently need new business models and energy solutions:In the development of energy infrastructure,digitalization will be pushed forward with the construction of the power grid and facilities for energy storage and replenishment.Digitalization of the whole link from production to supply,storage,and sales of energy will give consumers and communities more flexibility in energy use.Energy sales and supply will gradually shift to a two-way interaction model.V2G(vehicle-to-grid),optical storage,charging and inspection,and other energy solutions are also expected to be commercialized.Conclusion and expectation China is poised at a crucial stage as the country embarks on the journey towards its Second Centenary Goal with various development challenges to tackle.In an increasingly complex and volatile world,external demand is sluggish.At home,the national economy has entered a critical period of transforming the growth model,adjusting the economic structure,and building a new development pattern.The Report identifies Chinas strategic direction in the next five years and beyond.We believe that China will continue to advance reform and explore new ground,realize the premium of favorable policies and innovation initiatives,engage deeply in the international division of labor,and reshape global value chains to offer Chinas solutions for a global economic recovery and re-globalization.0510152025302021-12021-22021-32021-42021-52021-62021-72021-82021-92021-102021-112021-122022-12022-22022-32022-42022-52022-62022-72022-82022-9(%)火电装机容量累计同比增速水电装机容量累计同比增速核电装机容量累计同比增速风电装机容量累计同比增速光伏装机容量累计同比增速YoY growth of installed thermal power capacity accumulatedYoY growth of installed hydro power capacity accumulatedYoY growth of installed nuclear power capacity accumulatedYoY growth of installed wind power capacity accumulatedYoY growth of installed solar power capacity accumulated Contacts Sitao Xu Deloitte China Chief Economist Head of Deloitte Research,Partner 86 10 85125601 Lydia Chen Deloitte Research Partner 86 21 6141 2778 Guoxiong Zhang Managing Director of the Deloitte Global Economic Institute 86 21 6141 1002 Viola Gao Deloitte Research Senior Manager 86 10 8512 5998 Claire Rao Deloitte Research Assistant Manager 86 21 2316 6663 About Deloitte Deloitte China provides integrated professional services,with our long-term commitment to be a leading contributor to Chinas reform,opening-up and economic development.We are a globally connected and deeply locally-rooted firm,owned by its partners in China.With over 20,000 professionals across 30 Chinese cities,we provide our clients with a one-stop shop offering world-leading audit&assurance,consulting,financial advisory,risk advisory,business advisory and tax services.We serve with integrity,uphold quality and strive to innovate.With our professional excellence,insight across industries,and intelligent technology solutions,we help clients and partners from many sectors seize opportunities,tackle challenges and attain world-class,high-quality development goals.The Deloitte brand originated in 1845,and its name in Chinese(德勤)denotes integrity,diligence and excellence.Deloittes professional network of member firms now spans more than 150 countries and territories.Through our mission to make an impact that matters,we help reinforce public trust in capital markets,enable clients to transform and thrive,empower talents to be future-ready,and lead the way toward a stronger economy,a more equitable society and a sustainable world.Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited(DTTL),its global network of member firms,and their related entities(collectively,the Deloitte organization).DTTL(also referred to as Deloitte Global)and each of its member firms and related entities are legally separate and independent entities,which cannot obligate or bind each other in respect of third parties.DTTL and each DTTL member firm and related entity is liable only for its own acts and omissions,and not those of each other.DTTL does not provide services to clients.Deloitte Asia Pacific Limited is a company limited by guarantee and a member firm of DTTL.Members of Deloitte Asia Pacific Limited and their related entities,each of which are separate and independent legal entities,provide services from more than 100 cities across the region.Please see to learn more.This 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Gartner：2023 年行业供应链力量奖 - 全球、社会和 E2E 创新的兴起（英文版）（41 页）.pdf
Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 1 of 38Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awards2023:Global,Social and E2E Innovation RisePublished 15 February 2023-ID G00785139-49 min readBy Analyst(s):Eric ODafferInitiatives:Supply Chain LeadershipGartners ninth Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awardsfeature advances in process,technology,customer/patientinnovations,people breakthroughs and social impact.CSCOs canlearn from our 20 finalists and four winners:Zuellig Pharma,Procter&Gamble,Vodacom,and overall winner,Microsoft.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 2 of 38OverviewKey FindingsMicrosoft was awarded the Power of the Profession Supply Chain Breakthrough of theYear for 2023 for developing a sentient supply chain with end-to-end,real-time visibility.Microsoft also won the Process or Technology Innovation of the Year Award for thisbreakthrough.The three other category winners,along with 14 of our 20 finalists overall,had a globalfocus:A record number of 153 submissions were received for the 2023 Power of the ProfessionAwards,up 83%over last year.Of this increase,43me from small-andmidcapitalization companies(less than$10 billion in revenue),increasing the number ofsubmissions five times for organizations this size over 2022.RecommendationsChief supply chain officers(CSCO)responsible for strategic leadership should:Vodacom won the Customer or Patient Innovation Award for developing a healthcarecold-chain beyond COVID-19 in Africa.Procter&Gambles(P&Gs)Saksham Initiative won the People Breakthrough of theYear Award for delivering equality and inclusion to a production plant in Goa inwestern India.Zuellig Pharma won the Social Impact of the Year Award for developing eZTracker,an end-to-end supply chain traceability solution powered by blockchain for theAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations.Systematize innovation and breakthrough program development.Leading initiativestypically develop as organizations intentionally work to break new ground onproblems outside continuous improvement efforts.Study the Power of the Profession winners and finalists case studies,seekinginspiration for their initiatives as well as those of their teams.Some of these effortsmay directly apply to a supply chain challenge at their organization and are sharedhere to inspire and catalyze action across the industry.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 3 of 38AnalysisAwards Had Key Themes Aligned to the Rise in Innovation in 2023Our 2023 Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awards showcase powerful initiativesthat enhance communities and the environment while delivering results that benefitbusinesses,communities,stakeholders and customers.The category winners are outlinedin Figure 1 and will be covered in detail in the balance of this research.Figure 1:2023 Award WinnersThe awards had a few key themes this year aligned to the rise in innovation overall.Thefirst theme is the rise of global initiatives,with 14 of our 20 finalists and three of our fourcategory winners having a global focus.Specifically,three of these winners focused onsolving big problems in Asia and Africa,directly impacting the quality of life in historicallyunderserved regions.In 2021 and 2022,we had a few globally focused submissions,butthis year was much greater and it translated into winning in the categories.Set a goal to share their supply chain advancements to enhance the profession.Doing great things and sharing them builds stronger supply chains across industriesand attracts talent to the profession.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 4 of 38The second is the rise of social impact,with 129%growth in that category.Some amazingsustainability innovations were represented by the finalists.And,last but not least,the riseof the midcap and small-cap companies.We issued a challenge for highlightinginnovation and these organizations responded,representing 26%of our submissions thisyear versus 9%in 2022(see March Madness for Supply Chain Innovation:Seeking Smalland Midmarket Companies).Smaller enterprises can innovate in supply chain and welllook for more innovations from this group in the future.Highlights of the finalists and winners this year include:IntroductionThe Gartner Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awards spotlight new initiatives thatmade a substantial impact in four award categories,with an overall winner also selectedfor the supply chain breakthrough of the year(see Table 1).Each initiative demonstratessignificant investment and commitment to people as critical enablers of supply chainstrategy and business performance,and we celebrate them all.We expanded our numberof finalists this year to highlight the tremendous advances these companies are makingand the growing competition in each of the categories.The table shows the companiescompeting in each category and highlights the winner in each.Developing new platforms and programs to improve performance,gain efficiencyand reduce costs.Improving the experience for customers or patients,including accelerating service,enhancing care and delivering life-saving medicines.Creatively addressing labor challenges,embracing diversity and inclusion,andimproving employee safety and well-being.Innovating in new areas to impact global sustainability and working conditions forpeople.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 5 of 38Table 1:Gartner Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awards 2023(Enlarged table in Appendix)There was a broad representation of industries in the submissions:High technology was the leading area,representing almost 23%.Consumer goodsrepresented 17%;life sciences 16%.No other industry segment represented more than 10%of the total.The top innovationcategories were:Process or Technology Innovation at 48%.Social Impact at 26%.Customer or Patient Innovation at 15%.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 6 of 38Microsoft won both our Supply Chain Breakthrough ofthe Year along with the Process or TechnologyInnovation of the Year,garnering the most first-placevotes for companies in each category.Microsoftdemonstrated that technology forwards innovationsand that breaking new ground with substantial impactto the enterprise can win,especially in process andtechnology,and even in the overall breakthrough of theyear.The company managed a cost avoidance of$550million while increasing sales and improving efficiency a huge impact at scale for quick action in achanging environment caught the eye of our judges.Congratulations to Microsoft.Overall,Power of the Profession submissions increased by 70 over 2022,with growth inevery category.Social Impact rose the most by percentage with a 129%increase insubmissions.Process or Technology Innovation had the largest volume increase with 40more submissions than in 2022.For the case studies shared below,these are directly from the company submissions ineach category revised and edited lightly for consistency and size.Supply Chain Breakthrough of the YearBack to topWinner:MicrosoftPeople Breakthrough at 11%.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 7 of 38Customer or Patient Innovation of the YearBack to topSupply chains are tasked with meeting increasing demands from customers and patients.Zuellig Pharma won the Customer or Patient Innovation of the Year for its eZTrackerinitiative,making healthcare safer through a blockchain-enabled,track-and-tracetechnology for pharmaceutical products in Southeast Asia.The other four finalists in thiscategory include Corewell Health,Dyson,Pfizer and Woolworths Group.These companies:Winner:Zuellig Pharma eZTracker:Making Safe Healthcare More Accessible FromPlant to Patient With BlockchainData silos in pharma hinder supply chain visibility andstifle collaboration across healthcare,resulting invulnerabilities and inefficiencies which cause monumentaldisruption and threaten patient safety.With its low digital maturity,the pharmaindustry cannot orchestrate a coordinated response in a timely fashion to addressissues like counterfeits,poor cold-chain management and medicine shortages.To make safe healthcare more accessible,Zuellig Pharma developed eZTracker,thefirst production-grade,end-to-end supply chain traceability solution powered byblockchain.Live in five markets,eZTracker is an award-winning solution that tracksmore than 2.9 million products and connects more than 53,000 active users onblockchain.Achieved positive,quantifiable impacts on customers or patients,thanks to supplychain innovations in loyalty.Overcame significant barriers to improve customer and patient experience andhealth outcomes.Employed holistic,customer-centric approaches that leverage customer quality dataanalysis,overhauling systems and working with coalition partners.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 8 of 38Breaking the data silos in pharma is crucial to tackle supply chain inefficiencies likecounterfeits,which cost the industry more than$2.6 billion in Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations(ASEAN)alone.A trusted system and strong collaborationbetween stakeholders are key to improve supply chain resilience andpharmacovigilance.eZTracker now enables pharmaceutical manufacturers,patientsand healthcare practitioners(HCPs)to participate in data sharing,with extended usecases of integrating blockchain with warehouse platforms,a patient-facing mobileapplication,and an interactive dashboard for real-time verification and datatransparency.A first mover in the enterprise blockchain space,eZTrackers multicloud and vendor-agnostic architecture empowers enterprises to join the blockchain quickly and unlockgreater digital resiliency.Beyond anti-counterfeit verification,other potential use casesinclude effective product recall management,cold-chain monitoring,autoreplenishment,e-product information and more.Benefits:Today,eZTracker empowers patients and HCPs across five markets with:More than 53,000 app users.More than 3 million products tracked on the blockchain.More than 150,000 scans.The eZTracker mobile app proved to be a crucial verification tool in 2021 whenZuellig Pharmas team was notified of a third-party selling clients products onsocial media platforms at prices significantly cheaper than most retailers.Uponinvestigation,the client released a statement to clarify that the products soldwere not distributed by them.To help consumers differentiate authorizedproducts from potentially harmful counterfeits,the eZTracker mobile app wasannounced as the official verification application for customers to scan andverify their products.Zuellig Pharmas clients partnered with the company to use blockchain toimprove cold-chain monitoring.With end-to-end traceability,the client can extractaccurate reports to provide greater accountability and assurance.When a leading vaccine manufacturer required a GS1(a standard mandated inThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 9 of 38FinalistsCorewell Health Early Warning Score:Disrupting Medical Supply DisruptionMedical supply shortages created by the global COVID-19pandemic have been a daily challenge for healthcareprovider supply chain teams.In 2020,shortages startedwith personal protective equipment(PPE),sanitizing products and testing supplies,butsoon spread into many other supply categories.Coupled with the fact that it wasunknown how long the supply challenges would persist,the sheer volume of productsaffected made it extremely difficult for those procuring the products.Corewell HealthSupply Chain Purchasing,responsible for procuring these supplies,initially relied on itsstandard practice:Focusing its efforts on the highest volume items.the U.K.health sector)serialization tracking solution for their vaccine distributionhub involving more than 15 countries,eZTracker was appointed as the solutionof choice.This project improved turnaround time,streamlined processes andhelped achieve greater operational efficiency.Corewell Health Supply Chain,with clinician input,created an early warning score(EWS)for approximately 12,000 medical supply SKUs,resulting in a proactiveplanning process addressing potential backorders,recalls and product inventorymonitoring.These actions reduced disruption in critical medical supplyavailability during a worldwide supply chain crisis.The early warning score algorithm accounts for practice change requirements,substitute complexity,criticality to care,item class and item usage throughoutthe health system.Supply chain teams have realized increased efficiency,reduced overnight deliveryfees and enhanced trust and collaboration between supply chain and clinicalstakeholders.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 10 of 38The goal of EWS is to proactively identify and prioritize those items most critical toclinical operations so potential problems could be recognized early enough to avoidstock-out situations.In creating this innovative approach to backorders,CorewellHealth buyers began the backorder mitigation process when days-on-hand supplylevels fell below its score-based threshold.For high-risk items,this process wouldbegin when a backorder had been found and stock was 18 days on hand.Moderaterisk items have a threshold of 10 days on hand and low-risk items have a threshold offive days or less on hand.Benefits:Dyson From Seven Days to Seven MinutesAt the time of EWS implementation in early 2022,Corewell Health had nearly 800monthly stock-outs.Within the first five months of implementation,there was a38crease in stock-outs,avoiding roughly 300 monthly stock-outs.This datawas further verified over the next three months when monthly stock-outs hoveredbetween 300 and 325.The direct and indirect impacts of this significant improvement cannot beunderstated.Within the supply chain,avoiding stock-outs allows purchasing,sourcing,value analysis and all functional areas affected by unplanned stock-outs to focus on their daily operational priorities.While not measured,reduction of unplanned,last-minute stakeholder meetings,team members working evenings and weekends,and the elimination of stock-outdisruptions,have made significant improvements to the teams efficiency andability to drive forward other initiatives.Reduction of overnight freight and shipping costs for just-in-time substituteproducts have also been realized.EWS has not only ensured more products on shelves to take care of patients,butit has also instilled a higher degree of trust and collaboration between the supplychain teams and clinical stakeholders.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 11 of 38Starting in 2021,engineers at Dyson,the household appliance manufacturer,havebeen leading the digital transformation of the companys customer service model.During that time,its gone from a traditional return-to-base service model to a virtualservice engineer(VSE)online service model.In traditional after-sales service,customers would either send back their machines orbring them to a service center.Service would normally require seven days of cycle time,a period in which customers might become annoyed by the inability to use their Dysontechnology.Under COVID-19 restrictions,moreover,the impact on logistics,as well asthe effect of interruptions,could mean an even worse customer experience.Dysons engineers believed that a digital solution could be a more effective andefficient way to address customer complaints,while also allowing the company tohave more direct communication with consumers.After all,Dyson had observed thatmore than 30%of the consumer complaints were about technology awareness ormisuse of products,not quality or performance issues,which would necessarily requirea return-to-base model of service.What makes the VSE solution unique is the way it engages with customers.Instead ofwaiting for days without a visual on products and the repair process,customers areinvited at their consent and with their privacy protected into a video chat withDyson engineers.These engineers show them how products can be best used andoffer tips that consumers might find helpful in daily life.This one-to-one livepresentation not only helps build up customers self-service capabilities and reduce theoverall number of complaints and cost,but it also helps to improve Dyson engineersskill set in communicating and better understanding customer needs.Benefits:Pfizer An Accord for a Healthier WorldThe VSE model has reduced service time significantly,from seven days to sevenminutes.The program had far-reaching financial impacts,saving the company$20million.It also helped Dyson in cutting 4,000 tons of carbon emissions through a muchreduced use of packaging and freight in three years.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 12 of 38Patients incomes shouldnt affect health outcomes,andgeography shouldnt impact quality of care.Yet for asmany as 1.2 billion people living in lower-income countries,healthcare investment remains highly inequitable,andessential medicines and vaccines take four to seven years longer to reach them,if theybecome available at all.People living in these countries are disproportionatelyimpacted by noncommunicable diseases(NCDs).Pfizer believes that better health is possible for everyone everywhere and that allpeople deserve access to high-quality,safe and effective healthcare solutionsirrespective of income or geography.That is why the company came together withgovernments and other entities to launch An Accord for a Healthier World.In partnership with governments and global health partners,Pfizer aims to addresssome of the challenges and systemic barriers that limit or prevent equitable access tomedicines and vaccines.The company plans on providing breakthrough preventionand treatment options for millions of people impacted by deadly infectious diseaseslike COVID-19 and pneumonia,as well as certain cancers and rare and inflammatorydiseases.Benefits:An Accord for a Healthier World(AAHW)is an initiative by Pfizer focused onreducing the health inequities that exist between many lower-income countriesand the rest of the world.The company does this by providing Pfizers patented,high-quality medicines and vaccines available in the U.S.or EU on a not-for-profitbasis.Partners and participating governments collaborated to identify quick andefficient regulatory pathways and procurement processes to reduce time taken tomake new medicines and vaccines available in these countries.Pfizers supply teams worked quickly always with safety,quality andcompliance at top of mind to deliver the first medicines to help patients inRwanda.This delivery was an outcome of a successfully orchestrated supplystrategy,designed to support all markets included in the Accord Program.During the first executed order,1,500 treatment doses of oncology and vaccinemedicines were shipped to Rwanda.As the program grows and reaches the 45This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 13 of 38Woolworths Group Supply Chain as a Service:“Primary Connect ”The Woolworths Group provides a supply chain service fornot only Woolworths Group businesses,but also forexternal business customers.It is now branded as anecosystem:“Primary Connect.”In October 2020,the Primary Connect rebranding broughttogether all Australian Woolworths Group supply chain team members under thePrimary Connect brand,allowing more services to be offered.This milestone wasreferred to as the beginning of the companys team“becoming Primary Connect,”referring to the multiyear transformational journey it was embarking on to provide afull-service supply chain offering for other companies.In 2022,Woolworths Group considered itself to have become Primary Connect,providing supply chain services,solutions and technology,working with its partnerscontinually to find smarter and safer ways of doing business,and realizing more than$1 billion in revenue(doubling in three years).Woolworths Group refers to theinnovative commercial side of its business as“Primary Connect ,”and it is nowproviding services that include:markets in scope,Pfizer plans to improve the health of approximately 1.2 billionpeople living in these countries on a not-for-profit basis.Supply chain security until the last mile:Serialization is utilized to uniquelyidentify each product,enabling end-to-end traceability.Product movements aresystematically captured,and information stored,to enable real-time dataexchange with the last-mile traceability solution.This has drastically reduced thetime to respond to exceptions and intervene in case of deviations.The program utilized existing manufacturing and planning systems toaccommodate for volatility in demand from the target countries.Pfizer is also utilizing its Global Health Teams(GHT)program to deploy targetedsubject matter experts(SMEs)to drive skill-based assessments,includingcapability building for vaccines programing and for maintenance of cold-chainequipment.Providing sustainable and safe services to Woolworths Group brands andThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 14 of 38Benefits:external customers and 1,300 partners(storage,freight,international)in Australiaand New Zealand to streamline their supply chains.Securing inbound stock into Woolworths Groups distribution centers(DCs)more than 52%of inbound on Primary Connect .Digitizing Woolworths Groups operations for commercialization.Culture change to servicing internal and external customers(suppliers).Establishment of a business development team to develop solutions forsuppliers and customers.Development of commercial services to a major liquor retailer.Latent storage solutions colocated in Woolworths DCs(ability to transfer stockwith no movement).This includes ambient,chilled and frozen capabilities.International solutions developed,including sourcing and custom clearances.Electronic proof of delivery to suppliers.Driver app(for carrier partners)for visibility.Data insights and dashboard.Customer self-service booking and visibility online tool.Development of transport hubs to optimize cost and reduce“miles.”Development of new sustainable truck designs for long haul(road trains).This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 15 of 38Process or Technology Innovation of the YearBack to topSupply chains faced with growing complexity and volatility are under pressure to adapthow they operate in order to meet customer needs and achieve business results.Alongwith winner Microsoft,the four other finalists this year include AB InBev,JD.com,MTNGroup and Schneider Electric.These companies:Winner:Microsoft Real-Time Visibility Enabling a Sentient Supply ChainAs the COVID-19 pandemics effects on supply anddemand waned in 2022,changing market conditionsrequired Microsofts Devices Supply Chain(DSC)team to make some difficultdecisions to enable a quick pivot from a supply-constrained environment to a fullyorder-driven model.This pivot allowed Microsoft to avoid significant inventory risks.The DSC team invested in digital transformations that created capabilities for data-driven and actionable insights to drive these decisions.Microsoft wanted to develop asentient supply chain that was“all-sensing and monitoring,”predictive and able toconsistently optimize itself in real time.This meant building end-to-end(E2E)visibility,from tracking every raw material to finished goods sales,returns and repair operations.Achieved outstanding and quantifiable business performance,thanks tobreakthrough supply chain innovations in process engineering or technologyapplication.Established major visibility and agility enhancements.Built and relied on strong relationships with ecosystem partners,IT and internalcustomers.Challenged existing ways of working and piloted(as well as scaled)new,innovativeapproaches.DSC avoided$550 million-plus in inventory risks by transforming its supply chainfrom being reactive and high-touch to a sentient,all-sensing,real-time,predictiveThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 16 of 38Prior to this sentient supply chain transformation,these types of decisions took weeksto cycle through and were dependent on heavy manual data analyses with limitedscenario planning capabilities.There was poor E2E data coverage across the network.Data visibility was limited to just 20%of all required data points,with the remaining80%of datasets residing on multiple Microsoft Excel files,emails,IMs and MicrosoftPowerPoint slides.With a network of more than 30 different systems spread acrossthe supply chain,every business function had its own data silo.This led to inventoryand balance sheet risks,unpredictability,and an inability to remain agile and resilientin an ever-changing or volatile business environment.Benefits:supply chain.By leveraging the Microsoft Azure-based data platform,DSC captures more than50 million data points per day,from raw materials to end customers,creating asingle data source and eliminating data silos.Through a suite of self-serve analytics,DSC converts insights from real-time andnear-real-time signals into actionable intelligence.In addition,business processesare now set up to act on the data,risks and opportunities,helping the business bemore agile,resilient and proactive.At present,this innovation provides 92%end-to-end data visibility and datacoverage(up 70%).Robust data coverage across businesses has beenfoundational to this transformational journey.Currently,DSC operates with 99.9ta availability and uptime(up 49.9%).Before the pandemic,inaccurate,delayed or incomplete data was commonplacenearly 50%of the time.The cycle time for making supply decisions was reduced from more than eightweeks to a few days in four years.Inventory cost avoidance was up$550 million in 2022,and improved datavisibility allows managers to make quick and optimal inventory decisions.Within a four-year period,customer revenue opportunities increased(more than20%shelf availability,more than 4%sales,more than$50 million in revenue).This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 17 of 38FinalistsAB InBev Segue:Driving Line Flow With Artificial IntelligenceAnheuser-Busch(AB)InBev,the worlds largest brewer,faced a challenge on its packaging lines:Many of itsmachines come from different suppliers and represent a wide range of ages andtechnologies.To solve this problem,the Supply Transformation team needed todevelop a line balance optimization solution that could increase efficiency inpackaging lines while also being agnostic in terms of automation to effectivelycommunicate with machines from different vendors.Additionally,there was a realthirst to improve technical ownership and augment the freedom to innovate amongfrontline operators.In response,AB InBev developed a homegrown,intelligent line balance optimizationtool called Segue,which optimizes packaging line speed to smooth out microstopsand increase line efficiency by 2%to 4%.Segue relies on real-time artificial intelligence(AI)and is entered directly into the programmable logic controller.It uses big data andcoded algorithms to adapt the lines speed to the best configuration model,so that nomatter what stoppage happens on the line,the company is constantly recalibrating toan optimal speed baseline.There is an automatic retraining(every model change)based on maximum and minimum machine speed,and maintenance parameters,suchas mean time between failures and mean time to recover from failures.Benefits:On-time delivery performance has been consistently more than 97%in four years.Microsoft gained more than 80,000 productivity hours within four years.Segue is in active scale-up stage,being installed on 39 lines this year andincreasing packaging line efficiency by more than$45 million in cumulativebenefits.On the management level,Segue provided a simple and visual forecast in a real-time screen for the main packaging key performance indicators(KPIs).Theoutcomes from the project were then used by the operators and managers in theirdaily routine to track their packaging KPI evolution.When any anomaly happenedThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 18 of 38JD.com Achieving Planning Excellence With Explainable and Intelligent ForecastingTechnologyJD.coms Explainable and Intelligent Forecast Systemcovers millions of SKUs.Using self-learning and deeplearning combined with explainable artificial intelligencetechnology,the demand forecasting process becomesmore transparent.Some key components include:Causallogic of decision making,accurate demand breakdown,interactive forecast simulation capabilities and explainablenew product forecast.This system enables business units to further automatecommodity replenishment,allocation,promotion and marketing management.The new Explainable Forecast System uses combined explainable AI technology withforecasting algorithms,where users have visibility of forecast components and drivers,which significantly increases confidence in forecast outputs.And,more importantly,users accepted this new system because they have more trust and understanding.Atthe same time,user feedback and interaction mechanisms are significantly improved,and more integrated forecasting processes lead to better accuracy and efficiency.Compared with traditional forecasting methods,the new Explainable Forecast Systemsignificantly improves forecast visibility,interaction capability,accuracy and efficiency.Importantly,users more confidently navigate the new system,which improvesautomation rates.Compared with previous opaque forecasts,new clear-box forecastsprovide more information on decision logic,and better support for user interactionthrough forecast simulation and feedback inputs.Since the new system started,system utilization improved to 90%versus the old system,and the supplier purchaseorder(PO)replenishment automation rate increased by 20%.on the line,the system would automatically adjust the speed of the entire line,reducing the overall impact on industrial costs due to a stopped line.Since the system enhances line efficiency and improves the line flow,it enablesthe production of even more assorted brands of beer for the customer.Seguemakes the line setups easier and faster,creating the possibility to innovate in ABInBevs products for the market.These production improvements are sustainable because the algorithm behind itlearns continuously.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 19 of 38Benefits:MTN Group Global Sourcing and Supply Chain:Predictive Procurement forStrategic SourcingThe MTN Procurement Excellence team developed apredictive procurement system to leverage sourcing datapoints across 17 countries.This system enabled:Sourcing continuous monitoring by a recommendation engine tofind bundles for joint negotiation opportunities.MTN,a South Africa-basedtelecommunications company,monitors ongoing events,planned events and earlycontract renewal opportunities.This has directly impacted commercial terms andmotivated suppliers to innovate their proposals.Currently the Explainable Forecast System generates daily sales forecasts forabout 4 million SKUs(approximately 40%of total SKUs sold)and supportsdifferent types of SKUs such as:best-selling,long-tail and seasonality.Forecast accuracy improved 6%year over year for covered SKUs.Usage increased from 55%on the old system to 90%on the new system,whichsignificantly improved user productivity by eliminating manual work,such assubmitting huge amounts of manual supplier purchase orders(POs)for coveredSKUs.Supplier purchase order automation rate increased by 20%for covered SKUs,andquantity of automatic supplier POs reached more than 39 million(the first threequarters of 2022).Total supplier PO automation rate increased from 40%to 80%.Since startup,the new system has saved about$2.23 million.Savings arederived from better inventory allocation,more accurate replenishment andreduced warehousing-related costs.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 20 of 38MTN also developed an AI-enabled assistant called“GeSSiCa.”GeSSiCa is MTNs firstfemale voice“AI assistant,”with cognitive and robotic process automation(RPA)capabilities.By introducing GeSSiCa,MTN decreased cycle time and achievedoperational efficiency through automation of processes and manual tasks.Thecompany is more strategically focused and has moved away from monotonousrepetitive tasks.The procurement excellence further innovated game-theory-driven negotiations usingdecision support application(DSA).By introducing DSA,MTN has taken outsubjectivity from its sourcing decisions.All bids are now analyzed for their cost drivers,stress-tested with award scenario optimization,and negotiation agendas are draftedusing game theory for each bidder.Benefits:The recommendation engine ensures MTN benefits from every possible bundlingopportunity by scanning ongoing and planned sourcing events.Bundlingrecommendations delivered by the recommendation engine has improved thecompanys leverage over suppliers during sourcing events.This has directlyimpacted the commercial terms and conditions,and motivated suppliers toinnovate their business proposals to MTN,strengthening the companysnegotiation position.By introducing GeSSiCa,MTN decreased the cycle time and achieved operationalefficiency through the automation of processes and manual tasks.Forautomation of the processes,the company reduced the cycle time by 80%for 15high-impact business processes.MTN also automated 10 manual datapreparation processes,reducing the cycle time by 95%.As a result,MTN becamemore strategically focused,and processes became more flexible,scalable andaccurate.MTNs scenario analysis tool was built to optimize a multibillion dollar sourcingtransaction with millions of different outcomes/scenarios.The company hasused DSA in strategic tenders totaling up to$1 billion in bid value and hasanalyzed more than 50 million awarding scenarios.DSA has been successfullyimplemented in more than five very large value strategic projects.The impactreaches further than only time being saved.It is also 100curate,traceableand,most importantly,auditable.The actionable insights from DSA haveoptimized MTNs negotiation strategy.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 21 of 38Schneider Electric Program TRINETRA:Computer Vision Technology,a Key QualityEnabler Saving More Than 50 MillionSchneider Electrics Global supply chain operations arespread across more than 250 factories and distributioncenters,where supply chain resilience is crucial to meetcomplex customer requirements.To meet these objectives,it is essential for SchneiderElectric to produce similar references from multiple geographies.The assembly and inspection processes were highly dependent on human resourceswith specialized skills,where human errors cannot be completely eliminated.Due tothe very nature of manual dependency,the accuracy of the inspection was debatable.Key challenges to the process were that it was time-consuming,record keeping had tobe manual,finding skilled resources across three shifts was difficult,there could beergonomic issues for repeat activities and personnel safety was a priority.As part of the“Smart Factory program,”Schneider Electric has accelerated the digitaltransformation of quality processes by leveraging“computer vision”technology toimprove inspection and assembly processes.This initiative,dubbed“TRINETRA,”hasdelivered more than 50 million in savings.It includes:TRINETRA is derived from supply chain strategy STRIVE powered by a“Smart Factoryprogram.”In TRINETRA,the TR stands for trusted,IN stands for intelligent with atagline“Beyond IMAGINation.”Adoption of computer vision technology across the global supply chain(GSC)encompassing more than 100 smart factories and distribution centers,coveringmore than 26,000 product references.Development and adoption of AI-based,deep-learning vision solutions,automaticoptical inspection,high-precision dimensional measurement,guided workinstructions and machine vision solutions.Computer vision(CV)has helped Schneider Electric to improve operationalefficiency and productivity,reduce nonquality costs,product recalls,deskilling ofthe process and improving safety and customer experience.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 22 of 38TRINETRA is a culmination of multiple technologies where the emphasis is aroundleveraging computer vision systems with deep learning capabilities across SchneiderElectric facilities.Benefits:Qualitative benefits could be summarized in terms of deskilling the resources for theinspection processes.It is also defined by engineering efforts,compliance to safety byadhering to PPE norms,shorter lead time to onboard production and quality operators,reduced engineering efforts and environmental impact by reducing waste.Quantifiable benefits include:Social Impact of the YearBack to topNonquality cost(NQC)reduction by 8%.Red and black risk priority number(RPN)reduction by 40%to 50%.Labor productivity improvement by 30%.Safety RPN reduced by 60%.Customer returns reduced by 5%.Rework efforts reduced by 6%.Engineering and maintenance efforts reduced by 10%.Consolidated savings impact of more than 50 million.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 23 of 38Social impact focuses on achieving a positive,quantifiable impact on a community orenvironment through the supply chain.Vodacom won the category this year for itsimpactful public health innovation,bringing needed vaccines to countries across Africa.The other four finalists in this category are Diageo,General Mills,Schneider Electric andShell.These companies:Winner:Vodacom A Healthcare Cold-Chain Beyond COVID-19Many countries in Africa lack the basic infrastructure andcapacity to safely store vaccines at the extremely lowtemperatures required.Backed by a donation of 4.2million(about$4.4 million),Vodafone Foundation together with Vodacom,the SouthAfrica-based mobile communications company,spearheaded the successful rollout ofa vaccine cold storage and distribution solution in Africa.Through strengthening the cold-chain capabilities of developing countries in Africa,this initiative has not only ensured a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout,but alsounlocked long-term benefits for public healthcare capacity and infrastructure.Withimproved cold-chain facilities now available,more people can be treated on a regularbasis to boost immunization rates against several types of diseases and safeguardagainst future pandemic risks.For this project to succeed,logistics execution was key,with close to 3,000 cold-chainunits supplied to more than 500 vaccination sites across South Africa,Mozambique,Tanzania,Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC)and Ghana in a short space oftime.Vodacom leveraged its internal supply chain expertise to coordinate and trackthe successful delivery of equipment,with the rapid establishment of a dedicated cold-chain logistics control tower solution to oversee operations.Made great strides in circularity,recyclable packaging and improving health andequity in local communities.Highlighted a transition taking place as supply chain leaders move from ambitiousaction to authentic achievement of social responsibility and environmentalsustainability.Demonstrated that thoughtful investments can maximize business impact,meetstakeholder expectations and create a competitive advantage.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 24 of 38In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic,governments,businesses,welfareorganizations and independent donors all contributed funds toward a mass globalvaccination initiative.While the availability and sponsorship of vaccines appeared tomark the end of this worldwide struggle,Africa still faced a historical healthcarechallenge the safe storage and distribution of temperature-sensitive vaccines in aregion without adequate cold-chain infrastructure.Vodacom and the VodafoneFoundation worked with UNICEF and the African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team(AVATT),to procure,distribute and track delivery of equipment from supplier origin todestination hospitals and clinics in Africa.Benefits:FinalistsDiageo Tequila Agave Spraying by DroneThe Vodafone Foundation and Vodacoms donation funded 2,197 cold-chainunits(including freezers,refrigerators,cooler boxes and carriers)for allocationwithin South Africa,with a further 690 units provided for Ghana,the DRC,Tanzania and Mozambique.In South Africa,a total of 326 vaccine rollout sites were provided with cold-chainequipment.The bulk of the donation was distributed across the provinces ofGauteng,KwaZulu-Natal,Western Cape and Eastern Cape(constituting 68.4%ofthe countrys total population of 60 million),which has greatly helped strengthenSouth Africas public health cold-chain capability.Ghana was also among the first to receive its pledged cold-chain infrastructure of461 units,spread over 185 rollout sites.Mozambique was allotted 189 units of cold-chain equipment across publichealth facilities situated in the provinces of Cabo Delgado,Manica,Sofala,Nampula,Zambezia,as well as the sparsely populated Inhambane region.The remaining equipment was reserved for Tanzania and the DRC,receiving 12and 28 cold-chain units,respectively.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 25 of 38The traditional approach to spraying agave fields is employing sprinkling devicescarried by people.The challenge here is the shortage of personnel combined with thefact that spraying of agave must occur at certain times.Agave captures moisture fromthe air during the night.During the day,it closes its stomata to reduce evaporation.So,to be effective,spraying of agave must happen during the night or very early morning.This presents considerable complexity associated with spraying an isolated agavefield in complete darkness not to mention that mobilizing a high number of peopleduring this time is risky.Diageo employed an innovative approach to solving this problem in the use ofspraying drones.A single drone,handled by a single individual,can cover between 20to 30 hectares each day,equivalent to the results of 30 people under the traditionalapplication method.A single person,with the required security equipment,handles thepreparation of agricultural inputs.This means more efficiency and greater productionin terms of time and cost.Due to the higher precision in spraying,there is a reduction in cost of applying product.There is also an impact in the communities where spraying by drone is implementedas local talent is trained in the associated technologies,creating new job opportunitiesand attracting the interest of higher educational institutions to contribute to agriculturetechnification.Benefits:General Mills Regenerative AgricultureThe drone uses 70%less water in high-precision spraying than in manualapplications and has a positive impact on Diageos carbon footprint.Because of drone use over the last six months,Diageo has saved 2 million litersof water and it is expected that water savings for 2022 will be in the region of 3.2million liters.Health and safety are Diageos top priorities and drone use supports this as asafer method of water spraying and minimizes the potential for lost-timeaccidents.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 26 of 38Climate change threatens agricultural production boththrough sudden shocks,like catastrophic weather,andgradually escalating pressures,such as shiftingtemperature and precipitation patterns.These risks arecompounded by the continued degradation of naturalresources.The food system accounts for one-third of all greenhouse gas emissions,with around 80%coming from agriculture and conversion of natural lands tofarmland.General Mills is one of the first companies to commit to advance regenerativeagriculture 1 million acres of farmland by 2030 and is focused on creatingresources to support farmers on their journey.General Mills defines regenerativeagriculture as a holistic,principles-based approach to farming and ranching that seeksto strengthen ecosystems and community resilience.The company is accelerating efforts in key regions,or“supply sheds,”where it sourcesits ingredients versus supply chain only,which supports broader systems change sothe entire industry can benefit.Its also out front in understanding holisticmeasurement outcomes and quantifying impacts.Key outcome areas include soilhealth and carbon sequestration,biodiversity,water quality and quantity,and farmereconomic resilience.With more than 90%of General Mills greenhouse gas emissions coming from Scope 3 the majority upstream in agriculture company leaders believe regenerativeagriculture is the best solution to reach the companys climate goals and createpositive planetary outcomes.Benefits:Today,more than 250,000 acres are enrolled in General Mills regenerativeagriculture programs,and the company expects to reach 350,000 by the end ofthis fiscal year.General Mills and Regrow Agriculture are partnering to monitor agriculturalpractices and their environmental impacts across 175 million acres of farmlandin North America,Europe and South America.This acreage represents thecompanys estimated supply sheds the regions where it sources keyingredients,like wheat,oat and dairy(within the total acreage being monitored,General Mills sources from roughly 3 million acres of farmland each year).This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 27 of 38Schneider Electric Sustainable Procurement FrameworkIn 2021,Schneider Electric,the French digital automationand energy management company,implemented a newsustainable procurement policy.The organizationssustainable procurement framework provides clear expectations and responsibilities toeveryone in the supply chain,from its procurement business to its suppliers.These expectations cover the entire scope of the environmental,social and governance(ESG)pillars.It facilitates strong governance,policies,processes and interventions toidentify all current and potential impacts of supplier operations on society andinternalizes supplier engagement to remediate impact.In encouraging Schneiderssuppliers to become sustainable change agents,the policy creates a multiplier effectacross the companys own ecosystems and customer networks as they embark ontheir transformation journey.Schneiders sustainable procurement framework not only sets expectations andresponsibilities,it also provides an in-depth support framework.This is done througheducational materials,one-on-one support,on-site support,digital suite and more toenable the companys suppliers to engage and deliver quickly on the sustainabilitytopics Schneider prioritizes.Benefits:For every$1 contributed toward regenerative agriculture,approximately$5 inadditional social,environmental,and economic value is generated for farmers,taxpayers,community members and society broadly(including more than$2directly for farmers).Regenerative agriculture has the promise to deliver a massive social return oninvestment.As part of the Zero Carbon Project,1,016 Schneider suppliers have formallycommitted to reduce carbon emissions in line with the 1.5 degrees Celsiustrajectory.More than 70%of suppliers are first-timers and initiated emissionreduction due to the Zero Carbon Project requirement.As of September 2022,more than 80%of suppliers have quantified,and reported,their carbon footprintand achieved more than 6%average reduction in Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions for 2021.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 28 of 38Shells Supplier Energy Transition HubBy implementing a net-zero supply chain,Shell can reduceits climate impact,enable emission reductions in hard-to-abate sectors and accelerate decarbonization in countrieswhere it may not be high on the priority list.However,the challenges of getting to a net-zero supplychain are especially demanding for Shell,with tens ofthousands of individual products purchased.Supply chain emissions can be attributedto 22,000 suppliers in many countries around the globe.Prompting action at this scalecan be complex.Shells project was looking to enable the company and its suppliers touse supply chains as game changers to accelerate the energy transition.The ShellSupplier Energy Transition Hub(the Hub)was the result.The Hub is a free-of-charge,collaborative,digital platform that allows companies tosimulate progressive emission targets with help from Shell.Owing to efforts on resource conservation and establishing a circular businessmodel across commodities,suppliers have initiated transformational businesspractices.For example,36%of the packaging spend of Schneider Electric isalready converted to sustainable packaging,validated by documentary evidencecollected from suppliers.Efforts are underway to achieve 100%.At Schneider Electric,14%of materials purchased are converted to“green”materials.This includes 31%of aluminum,18%of steel and 3%of thermoplasticthat qualify under the green criteria.Schneider Electric addresses the workers rights issue in its supply base byadopting a risk-based approach and implementing various measures.About 580high-risk suppliers have been audited between 2017 and 2021,identifying morethan 7,400 noncompliances(37%safety,25%labor and human rights).Issueswere successfully remediated,improving the working conditions of about185,000 supplier employees.In 2022,785 high-risk suppliers have been assessedso far(through August,via on-site and remote assessments;the objective is toreach 4,000 audits by 2025),and corrective measures are under implementation.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 29 of 38Through the Hub,companies have access to more than 35 global,innovative,low-carbon solutions which will help them reduce their emissions.These solutions areorganized into eight categories:Renewable power,waste and recycling,fuel switch,nature-based solutions,carbon capture,renewable heat,material and processefficiency,and behavioral change.In addition,the Hub allows companies to participate in an online collaboration spacewhere they can share lessons and best practices with other companies as they embarkon a journey to reduce their emissions.Companies can keep their data anonymous,but if the data is approved for sharing,companies can compare their own emissiondata and targets with other companies in their sector or industry.This helpscompanies further chart their decarbonization journey.Benefits:People Breakthrough of the YearBack to topSuccess is measured by having active suppliers on the Hub.Suppliers aresharing their targets and providing updates on how they are working toward theirtargets.To date,Shell has supported 343 companies to estimate and set targetsin minutes,which equates to about 20%of Shells supply chain by third-partyspend.Shell believes that the platform will help accelerate the reduction of carbonemissions across global supply chains.Aside from providing meaningfulinsights,it also helps set realistic reduction ambitions,allows for best practicesharing and offers fit-for-purpose low-carbon solutions for all industries,including hard-to-abate sectors that go far beyond carbon offsetting only.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 30 of 38People make supply chains work.Fostering diversity on the supply chain team,creatingvalue for the business through the supply chain and developing capabilities across thevalue chain are keys to supply chain success.Procter&Gambles Equality and Inclusion“Saksham”Initiative in a production plant in Goa,India,won this year for enabling womento thrive in the workforce,providing a model for other countries and initiatives.The otherfour finalists include Cardinal Health,Cisco Systems,Procter&Gamble(a secondsubmission outlined below)and Shell.These companies:Winner:Procter&Gamble Equality and Inclusion:Goa Plant“Saksham”Goa is a small state in India with conservative legislativenorms that do not allow women to work in manufacturingindustries beyond a day shift(7 a.m.to 7 p.m.).Thiseffectively meant that women could not be part of Procter&Gambles 24/7 production crews;any attempt to do so had to be first worked outwith the legislative bodies governing these statutes.Goa is also home to a P&G production facility for a female-only product.Havingfemale technicians on the production floor more closely mirroring the targetconsumer was also quite critical from a business standpoint.P&G expects this willbe a starting point for getting more insights into improving its product quality andwork processes for the Goa site.Additionally,in the local community,the talent pipeline in technical training institutes istraditionally almost completely made up of male students.Primarily,this ties to yearsof cultural bias against young girls in rural areas pursuing careers,especially intechnical disciplines.The impact effectively meant P&Gs hiring strategies needed tobe reexamined if the company wanted to get female talent into its operations.That ishow P&G came up with the idea for“saksham.”Took fresh approaches to address labor tightness,enhance company culture,drivebehavioral changes in the workplace and improve employee safety.Differentiated themselves by architecting successful human interactions.Mobilized people with purpose to drive exponential results and employed technologyto drive improvement.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 31 of 38Saksham is a Hindi word meaning“capable;competent.”Through this unique equalityand inclusion program,P&G aimed to hire female shop floor trainees to recognizethem as“saksham”and achieve professional goals,and eventually become rolemodels to inspire others in the futureThis initiative pushed P&G to innovate by:The result:A comprehensive program that within six months moved from ideaconception(November 2021)to enabling a fully female shop floor production crew,thefirst of its kind in P&Gs Feminine Care business in the Asia,Middle East and Africaregion.Benefits:Working with external government agencies to address legislative barriers.Coming up with new recruiting approaches and onboarding programs.Working with its internal supply chain teams to create flexible operatingstrategies.The site gender diversity among trainees doubled from 7%to 15%;consideringonly shop floor trainees,this was a first-ever situation in the history of the Goaplant.The site maintained operational excellence and continued to deliver servicedespite external challenges during this organizational initiative.Expansion locally:This program was launched as a pilot and is now paving theway for expanding the idea to P&Gs third-party resource partners.P&G isexploring ways for them to achieve 50%gender diversity in its external partnerssupplying the Goa plant.Expansion globally:Other P&G sites in Egypt,South Africa,Japan and Pakistanhave taken inspiration from the Goa program and have started to chart out theirown customized programs based on the basic framework that the Goa plantfollowed.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 32 of 38FinalistsCardinal Health Flexible Staffing for the Workforce of TodayCardinal Health is a distributor of pharmaceuticals,as wellas manufacturer and distributor of medical and laboratoryproducts.The company serves more than 60,000 U.S.pharmacies and nearly 90%of U.S.hospitals,with annual revenue of$163 billion infiscal year 2021.In 2013,the United States was forecast to have 165 million workers by 2022.In 2019,the workforce hit a high of 152 million workers,and then the COVID-19 pandemic hit.Cardinal Health needed to solve a labor mismatch where volume wasdisproportionately spread throughout the week while ensuring the company remainedan employer of choice,as profit margins in pharmaceutical distribution are usuallyrazor thin.As a result,Cardinal Health implemented flexible staffing models in four sites as apilot,two gig worker test sites and two flexible staffing platform offerings that allowedexisting employees to easily select shifts.Flexible staffing led to improvements in keyareas,specifically in overtime(OT)and on-time departure(OTD).More importantly,Cardinal Health discovered a new pool of labor that had previously been uninterestedin its distribution centers,allowing the company to flex into a new staffing model whileretaining talent,and introducing new options for better work-life balance.Benefits:The Flexible Staffing Option was piloted by Boston,Massachusetts,U.S.,and Aurora,Illinois,U.S.The Gig Worker Option was piloted in Salt Lake City and Dallas.The 90-day Flexible Staffing Option pilots kicked off well with:Aurora 196,or 85%,of its workforce downloaded the Flexible Staffing Optionapp.Boston 213 workers downloaded the app,or 81%.Boston had 113 shifts,or 936 hours,covered through Flexible Staffing Optionpostings;80%of the posted shifts were covered.Acceptance rate grew to 90%.Aurora had 239 shifts covered,or 1,868 hours;89%of the posted shifts wereThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 33 of 38The use of the Gig Worker Option kicked off with the Dallas DC averaging 18 shifts perweek worked by independent contractors(ICs),while Salt Lake City averaged six shiftsper week.Cisco Systems Innovation Through Gamification in Data Literacy&DemandForecastingIn gamification,user engagement is driven by buildingteams,offering rewards and tracking leaderboards.Thisengagement can be used to motivate people to solvecomplex business problems.The Cisco supply chain hassuccessfully used gamification to:covered with the acceptance rate eventually at 99%.Both DCs used the app for general communications to Flexible Staffing Optionusers,such as employee anniversaries,performance recognition,safetyreminders and well wishes.Aurora sent 24 messages and Boston sent 14 in a 90-day period.Both DCs experienced 100%coverage for their postings,with the ICs quicklyapplying to cover the shifts.Shift completion predictability By the end of the pilots,shift end times at thebeginning of the week were averaging 85%completed within 90 minutes of theexpected end time versus 30%prior to the pilots.This was despite an increase involume of 15%over the same time frame,and shifts that exceeded 150 minutespast the end time were less than 8%.Build a confident,data-driven community with self-serve analytics skills.Harness crowdsourced wisdom to improve demand forecast accuracy.Attract diverse talent.Foster innovation.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 34 of 38The Product Operations team has observed an organizationwide mindset shift interms of data literacy.The self-serve data tools usage has increased to 47%,three-fourths of the team(73%)completed internal live training in data fundamentals,and26%of employees continue to improve their data skills with additional training andcertifications.The Demand Planning team runs a gamification-based program,“Cisco ForecastLeague.”An average of 35 teams participate in the internal competition to generate thebest demand forecast for 250 Cisco products.A recently established external programenlists undergraduate student teams from five U.S.universities to prove theirforecasting prowess.This successful program has helped introduce processinnovation,attract diverse talent and improve forecast accuracy.Benefits:Ciscos leaders believe that the true measure of success of its program has been theparticipation rate.The Data Literacy program has been incredibly successful,asparticipants desire to learn more and develop additional data skills grew:73%of the organization completed the Business Intelligence 101 certification.Seventy-six percent of the organization participated in biweekly data challengesthroughout the fiscal year.Across the organization,43%of participants were awarded the novice levelbadge,24%were awarded the adept level badge and 13%were awarded theexpert level badge.For the internal Cisco Forecast League,the participation has been impressive.Inthe beginning,the newness of the concept attracted more than 68 teams acrossthe supply chain organization.The global pandemic and work-from-homemandates impacted the participation rates around 2021,but the teamresponsible for the program added exciting features to improve participation.Now,participation is increasing quarter over quarter.In terms of forecast performance,the winning teams have consistently providedforecasts 3%to 5%more accurate than the dedicated demand planners forecastfor the same products.The external Cisco Forecast League started in late fiscal 2022 with a singleThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 35 of 38Procter&Gamble Neurodiversity:Beautiful MindsNeurodiverse individuals use and process informationdifferently and can bring unique strengths into supplychain operations.Standard recruiting processes mayoverlook,or might inhibit,people in this group.For example,85%of people on the autism spectrum are unemployed.In response,Procter&Gamblecreated an alternative,but equitable,hiring process more friendly to neurodiverseindividuals.Procter&Gamble matched more than 30 neurodiverse individuals with supply chainroles,creating career opportunities from a pilot in 2019 to 2020 into a scale-up in 2021to 2022.The program provides meaningful work in an inclusive workplace and turnsthis social challenge into a win-win situation for the business,the organization and theindividuals.This program was piloted in Costa Rica,Warsaw,Poland,Cincinnati,Ohio,U.S.,and Singapore.In Singapore,this program was called“Beautiful Minds.”By tapping into the special talents of neurodiverse individuals,and creating anenvironment where they can thrive,P&G was able to make a positive impact to thebusiness,organization,individuals and communities in which they live and work.While this work started in the supply chain(across operations and IT),there are plansto expand into marketing and R&D roles based on the lessons.The vision of Beautiful Minds was to fully unleash neurodiverse talent by providingmeaningful work in an inclusive workplace and,in doing so,move to the next level ofsocial responsibility.The program team strongly believed in the importance of diversityof thought because this helps P&G leverage people with different backgrounds,perspectives,strengths and experiences to maximize results.With personal passion,the team was highly engaged in the project,coping with external challenges likeCOVID-19 and remote working conditions as this project started.All in all,this programenabled P&G to:university and five teams.This fiscal year,it has expanded to five universitiesacross the United States with a plan to add more the next year.As participationgrows,so will the influx of new generations of talent to the Cisco supply chain.Bring in the right talent for specific technical roles.Provide meaningful career opportunities for neurodiverse talents.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 36 of 38Benefits:Shell Professional Drivers:Visibly ValuedShell has long recognized the vital part its drivers play inensuring continued safe deliveries to customers.To createa strong professional driver value proposition,the ShellRoad Transport Team in Germany launched a campaign tocelebrate its 800 or so existing drivers and create aplatform to attract new ones.The market for professional heavy and dangerous goods drivers is experiencing asignificant shortage of personnel.The current average age of drivers in Germany isaround 50-plus,which means that in the next few years a high number of drivers willretire.This dilemma will impact the ability of companies to continue deliveries tocurrent customers,but also limit the opportunity for further growth.The constraints inensuring robust supply chains through safe road transport operations will not onlyaffect businesses but will,in the longer term,result in broader societal impact.Currentforecasts show that in Germany alone it is expected that as many as 40,000professional drivers will retire every year,while the road transport industry is onlyattracting 15,000 new drivers per year.Further strengthened P&Gs culture of inclusion.To date,P&G has matched more than 30 neurodiverse talents with supply chainroles,creating career opportunities for them.For the neurodiverse individuals,being employed helps with quality of life,influencing social status,providing a source of income and helping create asocial network.What did not change,but was reaffirmed,was the business value of operating aninclusive workplace,welcoming diversity in all forms and providing anenvironment where everyone can succeed.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 37 of 38The transport teams campaign produced custom truck branding,celebrating drivers byusing their pictures together with special slogans,which included“For You on theRoad”or“A Strong Team”on one side of heavy goods vehicles(large trucks).Advertisements on the other side(aimed at schools)promoted truck driving as anexciting career opportunity.In addition,a digital screen campaign in more than 600service stations was launched to hire new drivers and attract young,talented people.Benefits:Recommended by the AuthorSome documents may not be available as part of your current Gartner subscription.Supply Chain Executive Report:Power of the Profession Supply Chain AwardsThe ability to attract additional drivers has delivered,in the short term,significantly stronger performance a decrease in stock-outs and an increase incommercial value.The campaign has succeeded in sending a clear and compelling message tohauler companies that Shell is willing and able to step up and provide tangiblesupport with significant industry challenges,which has served to build evenstronger partnerships.In addition,36 young people have now signed up to start their training asprofessional drivers.Most importantly,the campaign has elevated the status of professional driversand created a sense of true pride in the driver community.Shells profiles of realpeople doing extraordinary work every day have resulted in drivers feeling seenand valued.As a result,drivers feel confident to speak up and be heard.Finally,this campaign is making a very positive contribution to health and safetyperformance.By creating a more psychologically safe environment,drivers arespeaking up and sharing personal stories when potential incidents take place.This allows everyone to really learn from potential incidents and near misses,and to put sustainable mitigations in place.Shell is helping to create safer roadsfor all.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 38 of 38Supply Chain Brief:Power of the Profession Winners Recognize Convergence of Process,TechnologySupply Chain Podcast:Gartner Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awards With EricODafferThe Gartner Supply Chain Top 25 for 2022:Insights on LeadersThe Healthcare Supply Chain Top 25 for 2022 2023 Gartner,Inc.and/or its affiliates.All rights reserved.Gartner is a registered trademark ofGartner,Inc.and its affiliates.This publication may not be reproduced or distributed in any formwithout Gartners prior written permission.It consists of the opinions of Gartners researchorganization,which should not be construed as statements of fact.While the information contained inthis publication has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,Gartner disclaims all warrantiesas to the accuracy,completeness or adequacy of such information.Although Gartner research mayaddress legal and financial issues,Gartner does not provide legal or investment advice and its researchshould not be construed or used as such.Your access and use of this publication are governed byGartners Usage Policy.Gartner prides itself on its reputation for independence and objectivity.Itsresearch is produced independently by its research organization without input or influence from anythird party.For further information,see Guiding Principles on Independence and Objectivity.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 1A of 3ATable 1:Gartner Power of the Profession Supply Chain Awards 2023Supply Chain Breakthrough of the YearDriving a breakthrough innovation for customers,the business and the lasting benefit of society.Customer or Patient Innovation of the YearAchieving a positive,quantifiable impact oncustomer or patient loyalty through supply chain.Microsoft:Real-Time Visibility Enabling aSentient Supply Chain.Corewell Health|Early Warning Score Disrupting Medical Supply Disruption.Dyson|From Seven Days to Seven Minutes.Pfizer|An Accord for a Healthier World.Woolworths Group|Supply Chain as a Service“Primary Connect .”*WINNER:Zuellig Pharma|eZTracker MakingSafe Healthcare More Accessible From Plant toPatient With Blockchain.AB InBev|Segue:Driving Line Flow WithThis research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 2A of 3AProcess or Technology Innovation of the YearAchieving outstanding and quantifiable businessperformance thanks to a breakthrough supplychain innovation in process engineering ortechnology application.Social Impact of the YearAchieving a positive,quantifiable impact on thecommunity and/or environment through supplychain.AB InBev|Segue:Driving Line Flow WithArtificial IntelligenceJD.com|Achieving Planning Excellence WithExplainable and Intelligent ForecastingTechnology.*WINNER:Microsoft|Real-Time VisibilityEnabling a Sentient Supply Chain.MTN Group Global Sourcing and SupplyChain(GSSC)|Predictive Procurement forStrategic Sourcing.Schneider Electric|Program TRINETRA Computer Vision Technology,a Key QualityEnabler Saving More Than 50 Million.Diageo|Tequila Agave Spraying by Drone.General Mills|Regenerative Agriculture.Schneider Electric|Sustainable ProcurementFramework How to Accelerate the SupplyChain.ESG Journey Through an ExtensiveSupplier Engagement Program.Shell|Supplier Energy Transition Hub.*WINNER:Vodacom|A Healthcare Cold-ChainBeyond COVID-19.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.Gartner,Inc.|G00785139Page 3A of 3ASource:GartnerPeople Breakthrough of the YearFostering diversity on the supply chain team,creating value for the business through supplychain,and/or developing capabilities across thevalue chain.Cardinal Health|Flexible Staffing for theWorkforce of Today.Cisco Systems|Innovation ThroughGamification in Data Literacy&DemandForecasting.*WINNER:Procter&Gamble|Equality&Inclusion Goa Plant“Saksham.”Procter&Gamble|Neurodiversity BeautifulMinds.Shell|Professional Drivers Visibility Valued.This research note is restricted to the personal use of xxx.
3 人看过 2023-02-17 41页 5星
SDR Ventures：2022年下半年医疗并购趋势报告（英文版）（12页）.pdf
通过 FINRA 和 SIPC 的成员 SDR Capital Markets, LLC 提供的投资银行业务和证券。医疗保健系统门诊/诊所800.00-1 7/1/2022Summit Medical GroupEvernorth,VillageMD门诊/诊所8.900.00-1 0/20/2022Corium Pharma SolutionsGurnet Point Capital, Webster Equity PartnersPharma and Lab Services408.00-1 0/1 2/2022 Discovery Senior Living Coast Wood Senior Housing Partners, Lee Equity Partners Long Term & Behavioral Care 455.00-1 0/7/2022 EyeSouth Partners Olympus Partners Outpatient Clinic/Clinics 1.000.00-9/6/2022 /2022Aeratech Home MedicalAdvent Home Medical, Maranon Capital , New Harbour Capital Healthcare Distributors：如果您是寻找其他交易活动的企业主 如果您是寻找行业内其他交易活动的企业主，请致电 720.221.9220 联系我们的办公室。在您所在的行业内，请致电我们的办公室 720.221.9220.16 186 28 37 75-50 100 150 200Strategic45%Financial55%Company NameSymbolMarketCap($thousands)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change% of 52 Week Highest.Revenue GrowthEBITDA Margintev/Revtev/tebitpriceda ep /ntm 收入/ntm ebitdamckessonmck53.1 90 $375.1 2 $50.9 p.1.6x20x9.6x0.Cardinal HealthCAH0。 .1 50 76.87 49.3I.3.2%1 1.5%(0.1%)0.1 xNMNM0.1 x8.5xHenry ScheinHSIC1 0.826 79.87 3.0%3.0.2%2 .0%8.7%1.1 x1 2.1 x1 7.4x1.0 x1 1.6xPrestige Consumer3 ,医疗保健PBH 1 00 62.60 3.2%3.2.7%3.02.7%4.1 x1 2.5x1 5.2x4.0 x1 1.5 xPatterson CompaniesPDCO2721 28.03(4.5%)(4.5%)79.4%2.7%5.7%0.5x9.1x1 3.8x0. 5xNMOwish&MinorOMI1,489 1 9.53(55.1%)(55.1%)39.8%3.0%4.4%0.4x9.6x1 2.2x0.4x7.1 xSegment Average10,2,2,7 %4.7%7.7%0.9x11.6x15.8x0.9x10 .0xSegment M edian3.2%3.2.4%3.0%4.4%0.4x11.9x15.2x0.4x10.6xMarket stats Trade stats Multiple LTM Multiple NTM- 50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0c - 21Jan -22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22September-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Health Care DistributorsOutpatient/ClinicsInpatient/HospitalsPharmaceutical & Laboratory ServicesLong Term Care and Behavioral HealthS&P $500)LTM Change YTD Change % Estimated 52 Weeks Revenue 收入增长率 EBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAOak Street HealthOSH5,225$21.51$(35.1%)(35.1%)60.6T .4%(24.5%) 3.0 xNMNM2.0 xNMSurgery PartnersSGRY3.41 6 27.86(47.8) % )(47.8%)43.6%1 4.2%1 9.4%3.3x1 7.0xNM2.9x1 8.6xSelect Medical HoldingsSEM3.1 53 24.83(1 5.5 %)(1 5.5 %)80.6 %5.5%1 0.0%1.3x1 3.2x1 8.0 x1 .3x1 0.1 xU.S.PhysiotherapyUSPH1,054 81.03(1 5.2%) (1 5.2%)61.6%7.5%1 5.9%2.6x1 6.6x27.1 x2.5x1 8.3x联合JYNT203 1 3.98(78.7%)(78.7% ) 21.0.0%8.2%2.3xNMNM1.8xNMS段均值(38.5%)(38.5%)53.5!.7%5.8%2.5x15.6x22.5x2.1x15.6x段中位数(35.1%)(35.1%)60.6.2.0% 2.6x16 .6x22.5x2.0 x18.3xMarket Stats Company Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples 公司名称符号市值（以千美元为单位）价格（$）LTM Change YTD Change % of 52 Weeks Peak Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV /NTM RevenueTEV /NTM EBITDAHCA 行政服务HCA67,841$239.96$(6.6%)(6.6%)86.0%4.7 .9%1.8x8.7x1 3.6x1.7x8.9xUniversal Health ServicesUHS1 0.060 1 40, 89 8.7%8.7.0% 5.8 %1 2.2%1.1 x9.4x1 4.5x1.1 x8.7xTenet HealthcareTHC5275 48.79(40.3%)(40.3%) 52.7%5.3%1 7.2%1.2x6.9x9 0.5 x 1.1 x 6.8 x 社区卫生系统CYH582 4.32 (67.5%) (67.5%) 29.3% 3.6%1 3.4% 1.1 x 8.2 x NM1.1 x 9.2 x 段平均值 (26.4%) (26.4%) 64.2% 4.8.9% 1, 3 x8.3x12.5x1.3x8.4x段中值(23.4%)(23.4%)69.3%5.0.3%1.2x8.5x13.6x1.1x8.8xMarket Stats Company Stats LTM Multiples NTM Multiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($ in Thousands) 价格 ($) LTM Change YTD Change % of 52周 最大收入增长率 EBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDACVS HealthCVS1 22,449$93.1 9$(9.7%)(9.7%)83.8 %3.1%3.4% 0 .6x1 6.2x39.2x0.5x8.6xLaboratory Corporation of美国LH20.864 235.48(25.1%)(25.1%)74.2%(1.6%) 20.1%1.8x8.7x1 2.5x1.8x9.9xQuest DiagnosticsDGX1 7.81 7 1 56.44( 9.6%(9.6%)89.8%(1 1.9%)21.4 %2.1 x1 0.0 x1 5.4x2.4x1 1.5xAllscripts 医疗保健解决方案MDRX1927 1 7.64(4.4%)(4.4%)75.9%(57.1%)1 9.6% 2.0 x7.4x1 9.0 x2.5x8.8xNextGen HealthcareNXGN1.270 1 8.78 5.6%5.6 .4%1 4.1%1 1.4%2.0 xNMNM1.7x9.4xSegment Average(8.6%)(8.6% )81.8%(10.7%)15.2%1.7 x10.6x21.5x1.8x9.7xSegment median(9.6%)(9.6% )83.8%(1.6%)19.6%2.0 x9.3x17.2x1, 8x9.4xMarket Stats LTM Business Stats M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap ($ in Millions) 价格 ($) Change LTM Change YTD % Estimated Revenue Growth 52-周最大值保证金 EBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAcadia HealthcareACHC7,489$82.32$35.65 .6.6%1 1.7.3%3.6x1 6.0 x26 .7x3.2x1 3.7xThe Ensign GroupENSG5,249 94.61 1 2.7.%1 2.7.%1 2.7.%1 1%1 4.7%1 1.8%2.2x1 8.7x25.2x1.9x1 4.9xLHC GroupLHCG5.01 8 1 61.69 1 7.8%1 7.8.2%5.8 %8 .3%2.6x31.0 x78.9x2.4x22.9xAddus HomeCareADUS1 .603 99.49 6.4%6.4.1%1 0.0%8.8%1.8x20.9x36.2x1.7x1 5 .4xNational HealthcareASE:NHC91 3 59.50(1 2.4%)( 1 2.4%)79.0%NM7.1%0.8x1 1.3x28 .9xNMNMSegment mean12 .0.0.2.6.7%2.2x19.6x39.2x2, 3x16.7xMedium Segment12.7.7.6.9%8.8%2.2x18.7x28.9x2. 2x15.1xMarket Stats Trade Stats Multiple LTM Multiple NTM 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB%9%9FRGIA567%8%8%9%5QWUX9G96%8%6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSubdebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:GF的最新来源数据截至 2022 年 11 月。倍数来源：PitchBook Financials and Analytics 2 Q4Offers ClosedDeals ClosedCapital Invested6 .1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x7.0 x7.1x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x9.3x8.6x9。 0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8 .0 x10 .0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm1。 “机会比比皆是，即使风险增加，”KPMG，Ross Nelson，2022 年第 3 季度 https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2022/ma-trends-health-care.html?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=7014W000001GXfSQAW&cid =7014W000001GXfmcliDCAC=7014W000001GXfSQAW&cid=7014W000001GXfmcliDCAC= hBpEw - SBBE0Wzic QWkQAvD_BwE2。 “为什么护士的工资会暴涨？” A，个人，2022 年 2 月 9 日 https:/卫生行业并购趋势：2022 年年中更新，”普华永道，2022 https:/卫生行业并购趋势：2022 年展望，”普华永道，2022 https:/Shortages Choking U.S.Health护理系统，”美国新闻，Steven Ross Johnson，2022 年 7 月 28 日 https：/纽约市 2 家医院罢工”，纽约时报，Sharon Otterman 和 Sean Piccoli，2023 年 1 月 10 日 https：/医疗保健领域人才获取的演变格局”，PreCheck， Bryan Barajas，2022 年 9 月 6 日 https:/Flurry 结束了低容量医院高质量并购的又一年，”Fierce Healthcare，Dave Muoio，1 月 13 日。 2023 https:/PE 支持的旨在解决医疗保健劳动力短缺的交易”，PE Hub，Aaron Weitzman，2022 年 10 月 13 日 https：/Mergers & Acquisitions Recent Payer Acquisitions，”Beckers Payer Issues，Rylee Wilson，2022 年 11 月 28 日 https： /Recent Payer Acquisitions，”Beckers Payer Issues，Jakob Emerson，2022 年 8 月 17 日 https：/Therapeutics 以 13.5 亿美元完成对 Magellan Rx 的收购，整合了药房和医疗药物管理方面的专业知识，”Cision PR Newswire，2022 年 12 月 5 日 https： ：/以 28 亿美元的价格将 Kindred 临终关怀部门的多数股权出售给 PE 公司，”Dive Healthcare，Rebecca Pifer，2022 年 4 月 22 日 https：/VillageMD 签署了 90 亿美元的收购 Summit Health 的协议，这是今年最大的医疗交易，“Fierce医疗保健，Heather Landi，2022 年 11 月 7 日 https:/Vs.Amazon 在达成 39 亿美元的医疗交易后，”Becker Hospital Review，Laura Dyrda，2022 年 7 月 26 日 https:/Nabs Home Healthcare Company 在竞购战后以 80 亿美元签约， “Healthcare Dive，Rebecca Pifer，2022 年 9 月 6 日 https：/在 Signify Health 的投标人中，”华尔街日报，Laura Cooper，2022 年 8 月 21 日 https：/Groups Optum 完成了 130 亿美元的转换交易，“福布斯，Bruce Japsen，10 月 3 日， 2022 UnitedHealth Groups Optum 完成 130 亿美元的转换交易()19。 “Walgreens 以 3.92 亿美元收购 Carecentrix 的剩余股权，”Fierce Healthcare，Heather Landi，2022 年 10 月 12 日 https://U.S.Needs More Nurses，但护理学校没有足够的名额，“NPR，Yuki Noguchi，10 月 25 日, 2021 https:/www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/10/25/1047290034/the-u-s-needs-more-nurses-but-nursing-schools-have-too-few-slots21。” 2023 年预测：为什么数字医疗已经成熟，可以进行包括更多颠覆性产品在内的新一轮并购浪潮，”Fierce Healthcare，Heather Landi，2022 年 12 月 21 日 https：/In Health Services 2023，“普华永道、Thom Bales 和 Laura Robinette，2023 年 1 月 https : / 2022 SPAC 崩溃加深，因为投资者套现充足，”彭博社、Bailey Lipschultz 和 Lydia Beyoud，2022 年 12 月 14 日 https:/
4 人看过 2023-02-17 12页 5星
SDR Ventures：2022 年下半年科技行业并购趋势报告（英文版）（17 页）.pdf
Investment Banking&Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA&SIPC.DateDateTargetTargetBuyer(s)Buyer(s)SegmentSegmentAmount Amount($in Mil)($in Mil)TEV/TEV/RevRevTEV/TEV/EBITDAEBITDA1 2/1 2/2022Coupa Abu Dhabi Investment Authority,Thoma BravoEnterprise Software8,000.009.8x-1 2/6/2022SwitchDigitalBridge Group,IFM InvestorsInfrastructure/Hosting1 0,958.751 6.4x1 6.8x1 1/22/2022ZendeskAbu Dhabi Investment Authority,GIC,Hellman&Friedman,PermiraEnterprise Software8,862.1 95.6x-1 1/22/2022Roper Technologies Clayton,Dubilier&RiceIT Services5,098.04-1 0/27/2022TwitterElon Musk,A.M.Management&Consulting,Aliya Capital Partners,Andreessen Horowitz,Baron Funds,Binance,Brookfield Asset ManagementTech Conglomerates42,551.838.1 x72.3x1 0/1 9/2022AvalaraVista Equity PartnersFinancial Technology6,939.418.8x-1 0/1 2/2022KnowBe4Vista Equity PartnersIT Security4,256.061 3.7x0.0 x1 0/1 1/2022The Nielsen CompanyBrookfield Business Partners,Evergreen Coast CapitalData&Analytics1 5,234.004.3x1 1.5x1 0/3/2022Change Healthcare OptumHealthcare IT1 2,91 0.993.7x1 6.2x9/20/2022Citrix SystemsAres Management,Elliott Management,Vista Equity PartnersIT Services1 5,627.204.7x25.7xIf You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.278 122 33 36 73 46 128 93 290 20 7-50 100 150 200 250 300 350Strategic56%Financial44%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 c-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22Financial TechnologySupply Chain SoftwareMarketing SoftwareHealthcare ITS&P 500-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0c-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22Enterprise SoftwareOther SaaSIT ServicesInfrastructure/HostingTech ConglomeratesData AnalyticsIT SecurityS&P 500 Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMicrosoftMSFT1,787,732$239.82$(28.7%)(28.7%)70.7%7.9H.6%8.6x1 7.7x7.9x1 6.2xOracleORCL220,392 81.74(6.3%)(6.3%)91.2%1 2.18.4%6.6x1 7.2x5.9x1 1.0 xAdobeADBE1 56,453 336.53(40.7%)(40.7%)58.5%1 1.7.1%8.8x22.2x8.1 x1 6.4xSalesforceCRM1 32,590 1 32.59(47.8%)(47.8%)51.6%9.2%1 4.3%4.4x31.0 x4.1 x1 2.4xIntuitINTU1 09,342 389.22(39.5%)(39.5%)60.1%8.4$.6%8.6x34.9x7.9x1 9.5xWorkdayWDAY43,004 1 67.33(38.7%)(38.7%)60.3%1 7.3%2.1%6.9xNM5.8x22.5xZoomInfo TechnologiesZI1 2,1 54 30.1 1(53.1%)(53.1%)45.8(.5.4%1 2.8xNM1 0.0 x23.1 xSegment Average(36.4%)(36.4%)62.6.6.9%8.1x24.6x7.1x17.3xSegment M edian(39.5%)(39.5%)60.1.7.4%8.6x22.2x7.9x16.4xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAVisaV41 4,750$207.76$(4.1%)(4.1%)88.1%1 3.0f.6%1 5.1 x22.7x1 3.4x1 9.1 xMasterCardMA334,328 347.73(3.2%)(3.2%)86.9%1 6.0X.6%1 5.8x26.9x1 3.6x22.2xAmerican ExpressAXP1 1 0,404 1 47.75(9.7%)(9.7%)74.0%NMNMNMNMNMNMPayPal HoldingsPYPL81,1 93 71.22(62.2%)(62.2%)36.3%1 0.7%1 6.4%3.0 x1 8.2x2.7x1 0.7xFiservFISV64,1 82 1 01.07(2.6%)(2.6%)91.1%2.95.9%4.9x1 3.7x4.8x1 1.0 xFidelity National Information ServicesFIS40,261 67.85(37.8%)(37.8%)55.6%3.95.2%4.0 x1 0.5x3.8x8.8xBlockSQ37,583 62.84(61.1%)(61.1%)38.0%1 8.9%(1.1%)2.0 xNM1.7x27.0 xMSCIMSCI37,1 94 465.1 7(24.1%)(24.1%)75.4%1 0.6Y.7%1 8.4x30.9x1 6.7x28.1 xJack Henry&AssociatesJKHY1 2,807 1 75.56 5.1%5.1.6%9.73.3%6.6x1 9.7x6.0 x1 8.8xBlack KnightBKI9,635 61.75(25.5%)(25.5%)73.6%2.6.4%8.0 x1 9.7x7.8x1 6.5xWestern UnionWU5,31 8 1 3.77(22.8%)(22.8%)67.5%(1 3.1%)26.8%1.4x5.4x1.7x6.9xEnvestnetENV3,41 4 61.70(22.2%)(22.2%)72.9%2.8%6.2%3.3x53.0 x3.2x1 6.4xSegment Average(22.5%)(22.5%)70.2%7.14.4%7.5x22.1x6.8x16.9xSegment M edian(22.5%)(22.5%)73.8%9.75.2%4.9x19.7x4.8x16.5xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAManhattan AssociatesMANH7,575$1 21.40$(21.9%)(21.9%)76.9%9.8%1 9.8%1 0.0 x50.5x9.1 x34.5xSPS CommerceSPSC4,629 1 28.43(9.8%)(9.8%)87.5!.6!.3%1 0.2x48.0 x8.4x28.9xE2OpenETWO1,774 5.87(47.9%)(47.9%)50.6%1 5.7%(49.4%)5.0 xNM4.3x1 2.6xAmerican SoftwareAMSWA495 1 4.68(43.9%)(43.9%)54.5%(0.6%)1 2.4%3.0 xNM3.0 x1 9.1 xSegment Average(30.9%)(30.9%)67.4.6%1.0%7.1x49.2x6.2x23.8xSegment M edian(32.9%)(32.9%)65.7.7.1%7.5x49.2x6.4x24.0 xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAHubSpotHUBS1 4,045$289.1 3$(56.1%)(56.1%)43.1&.0%(2.9%)8.3xNM6.6xNMCardlyticsCDLX1 92 5.78(91.3%)(91.3%)7.9%4.8%(1 8.3%)0.9xNM0.9xNMMarin SoftwareMRIN1 6 1.00(73.0%)(73.0%)20.0%NM(74.8%)NMNMNMNMEmerge CommerceECOM6 0.06(87.9%)(87.9%)8.2%(1.2%)1 1.9%0.5x4.0 x0.5x5.2xSegment Average(77.1%)(77.1%)19.8%9.9%(21.0%)3.2x4.0 x2.7x5.2xSegment M edian(80.5%)(80.5%)14.1%4.8%(10.6%)0.9x4.0 x0.9x5.2xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAServiceNowNOW78,431$388.27$(40.2%)(40.2%)59.0(.1%9.7%1 1.1 xNM8.6x27.5xAtlassianTEAM32,880 1 28.68(66.3%)(66.3%)33.1).0%(2.5%)1 0.9xNM8.5x48.4xZoom Video CommunicationsZM1 9,802 67.74(63.2%)(63.2%)35.4%3.8%1 1.5%3.4x29.6x3.3x1 0.2xCloudflareNET1 4,857 45.21(65.6%)(65.6%)33.5G.6%(1 1.0%)1 6.5xNM1 1.2xNMSnap GroupSNAP1 4,437 8.95(81.0%)(81.0%)1 8.5%7.3%(1 9.6%)3.1 xNM2.9x22.1 xDocuSignDOCU1 1,1 44 55.42(63.6%)(63.6%)35.2%8.1%(1.2%)4.5xNM4.2x1 7.6xGuidewire SoftwareGWRE5,1 22 62.56(44.9%)(44.9%)54.4%8.4%(24.7%)5.8xNM5.4xNMFive9FIVN4,784 67.86(50.6%)(50.6%)47.0 .9%(4.4%)6.7xNM5.6x31.4xRingCentralRNG3,399 35.40(81.1%)(81.1%)1 7.9!.2%(24.0%)2.6xNM2.1 x1 1.2xAgoraAPI453 3.91(75.9%)(75.9%)22.7%9.4%(61.4%)NMNM(0.1 x)1.5xSegment Average(63.2%)(63.2%)35.7.4%(12.8%)7.2x29.6x5.2x21.2xSegment M edian(64.6%)(64.6%)34.4.2%(7.7%)5.8x29.6x4.8x19.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMcKessonMCK53,1 90$375.1 2$50.9P.9.4%3.7%1.5%0.2x1 4.5x0.2x1 1.6xVeeva SystemsVEEV25,1 25 1 61.38(36.8%)(36.8%)62.0%1 2.1%.1%1 0.7xNM9.5x24.9xOne MedicalONEM3,41 5 1 6.71(4.9%)(4.9%)90.72.1%(31.6%)3.8xNM2.9xNMInocycle Technology GroupINOV1 5 0.01(57.4%)(57.4%)32.1%NMNMNMNMNMNMSegment Average(12.1%)(12.1%)69.5.0%(1.7%)4.9x14.5x4.2x18.2xSegment M edian(20.9%)(20.9%)76.3.1%1.5%3.8x14.5x2.9x18.2xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDASplunkSPLK1 4,093$86.09$(25.6%)(25.6%)57.1%1 6.8%(1 4.9%)5.0 xNM4.3x24.1 xPalantir TechnologiesPLTR1 3,355 6.42(64.7%)(64.7%)33.9%.6%(27.8%)6.1 xNM4.8x1 9.4xElasticsearchESTC4,924 51.50(58.2%)(58.2%)40.6%1 9.8%(1 8.7%)4.8xNM4.0 xNMAlteryxAYX3,501 50.67(1 6.2%)(1 6.2%)66.43.9%(37.2%)5.6xNM4.2xNMTeradataTDC3,427 33.66(20.7%)(20.7%)64.1%(1.1%)1 4.1%2.0 x1 3.9x2.0 x9.1 xPegasystemsPEGA2,81 4 34.24(69.4%)(69.4%)29.8%1 2.3%(1 7.6%)2.6xNM2.3x28.4xVerint SystemsVRNT2,390 36.28(30.9%)(30.9%)64.3%2.8%1 1.7%3.3x28.6x3.3x1 1.7xGlobalData HoldingDATA1,676 1 4.1 6(26.4%)(26.4%)72.0#.1.8%7.0 x25.1 x5.7x1 4.3xMicroStrategyMSTR1,633 1 41.57(74.0%)(74.0%)24.6%1.2%(238.8%)8.0 xNM7.9xNMPROS HoldingsPRO1,1 00 24.26(29.7%)(29.7%)66.9%1 1.8%(25.0%)4.5xNM4.0 xNMSegment Average(41.6%)(41.6%)52.0.6%(32.6%)4.9x22.5x4.2x17.8xSegment M edian(30.3%)(30.3%)60.6.6%(18.1%)4.9x25.1x4.1x16.9xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAAccentureACN1 68,040$266.84$(35.6%)(35.6%)64.0%4.9%1 6.8%2.7x1 5.9x2.5x1 3.6xCognizant Technology SolutionsCTSH29,391 57.1 9(35.5%)(35.5%)61.2%3.4%1 8.5%1.5x7.9x1.4x7.6xEPAM SystemsEPAM1 8,849 327.74(51.0%)(51.0%)48.4%1 9.7%1 3.0%3.7x28.7x3.1 x1 8.0 xLeidos HoldingsLDOS1 4,378 1 05.1 9 1 8.3%1 8.3.7%6.1%1 0.0%1.4x1 3.6x1.3x1 2.3xBooz Allen HamiltonBAH1 3,820 1 04.52 23.3#.3.9%1 0.0%1 0.5%1.8x1 7.4x1.7x1 5.4xCACI InternationalCACI7,063 300.59 1 1.7%1 1.7.1%7.0%1 0.1%1.4x1 3.9x1.3x1 2.3xSolarWindsSWI1,51 3 9.36(34.0%)(34.0%)63.5%2.4%(1 01.6%)3.7xNM3.6x9.3xThe Hackett GroupHCKT646 20.37(0.8%)(0.8%)82.2%(1.3%)1 9.5%2.0 x1 0.1 x2.0 x8.5xUnisysUIS346 5.1 1(75.2%)(75.2%)22.1%(2.4%)(2.8%)0.3xNM0.3x2.3xSegment Average(19.9%)(19.9%)69.2%5.5%(0.7%)2.0 x15.3x1.9x11.0 xSegment M edian(34.0%)(34.0%)64.0%4.9.5%1.8x13.9x1.7x12.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDACisco SystemsCSCO1 95,71 0$47.64$(24.8%)(24.8%)74.6%4.80.6%3.5x1 1.6x3.4x9.4xPalo Alto NetworksPANW42,1 91 1 39.54(24.8%)(24.8%)65.3$.6%3.1%7.3xNM5.8x25.0 xFortinetFTNT38,1 95 48.89(32.0%)(32.0%)67.20.9.1%9.1 x41.4x7.0 x23.8xCrowdStrike HoldingsCRWD24,679 1 05.29(48.6%)(48.6%)43.55.9%(2.7%)1 1.3xNM8.3xNMVeriSignVRSN21,780 205.44(1 9.1%)(1 9.1%)80.3%9.7i.7%1 6.2x23.2x1 4.7x1 9.5xZscalerZS1 6,1 37 1 1 1.90(65.2%)(65.2%)34.34.0%(22.8%)1 2.8xNM9.5xNMCheck Point Software TechnologiesCHKP1 5,822 1 26.1 6 8.2%8.2.3%6.68.8%6.2x1 6.0 x5.8x1 2.9xCyberArk SoftwareCYBR5,279 1 29.65(25.2%)(25.2%)72.0&.9%(20.8%)8.5xNM6.7xNMTenableTENB4,292 38.1 5(30.7%)(30.7%)60.0&.4%(7.9%)6.4xNM5.1 xNMQualysQLYS4,263 1 1 2.23(1 8.2%)(1 8.2%)69.1!.04.3%8.4x24.4x6.9x1 6.8xVaronis SystemsVRNS2,639 23.94(50.9%)(50.9%)46.4%1 3.6%(26.4%)4.7xNM4.1 xNMSegment Average(30.1%)(30.1%)63.4!.3.7%8.6x23.3x7.0 x17.9xSegment M edian(25.2%)(25.2%)67.2$.6%3.1%8.4x23.2x6.7x18.1xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAEquinixEQIX60,61 5$655.03$(22.6%)(22.6%)76.8%1 1.7.4%1 0.4x25.9x9.3x20.0 xIQVIAQTS38,056 205.83(26.9%)(26.9%)73.1%NM20.0%3.4x1 7.2xNMNMDigital RealtyDLR28,830 1 00.27(43.3%)(43.3%)56.3%1 0.7s.0%1 0.6x1 4.5x9.6x1 8.4xAkamai TechnologiesAKAM1 3,256 84.30(28.0%)(28.0%)68.4%3.95.7%4.3x1 2.1 x4.2x9.9xGoDaddyGDDY1 1,625 74.82(1 1.8%)(1 1.8%)84.7%6.8%1 6.8%3.6x21.7x3.4x1 3.2xExtreme NetworksEXTR2,405 1 8.31 1 6.6%1 6.6.1%1 8.0%8.9%2.2x24.8x1.9x1 0.8xSegment Average(19.3%)(19.3%)74.4.22.4%5.8x19.4x5.7x14.4xSegment M edian(24.7%)(24.7%)74.9.7.9%4.0 x19.4x4.2x13.2xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDATEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAAppleAAPL2,066,942$1 29.93$(26.8%)(26.8%)71.0%3.83.0%5.4x1 6.4x5.2x1 5.7xAlphabetGOOGL1,1 45,004 88.23(39.1%)(39.1%)58.2%8.32.7%3.7x1 1.5x3.5x9.0 xAAMZN856,939 84.00(49.6%)(49.6%)49.0%1 1.5%1 0.0%1.8x1 8.5x1.7x1 1.1 xMeta PlatformsMETA31 5,555 1 20.34(64.2%)(64.2%)35.0%2.96.7%2.5x6.9x2.5x6.1 xNetflixNFLX1 31,228 294.88(51.1%)(51.1%)48.0%9.0c.1%4.4x7.0 x4.1 x1 8.8xSegment Average(46.2%)(46.2%)52.3%7.15.1%3.6x12.1x3.4x12.1xSegment M edian(49.6%)(49.6%)49.0%8.33.0%3.7x11.5x3.5x11.1xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB%9%9FRGIA567%8%8%9%5QWUX9G96%8%6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSub DebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:The most current source of GF Data is as of November 2022.MultiplesSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics2019202120202022*$0.0M$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B$500.0B$600.0B1,3002,3003,3004,3005,3006,3002021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q4Deals ClosedDeals ClosedCapital Invested6.1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x7.0 x7.1x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x9.3x8.6x9.0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10.0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm1.“The Year That Brought Silicon Valley Down to Earth,”CNN,Catherine Thorbecke,Dec.30,2022 https:/Techs Year of Reckoning,”Statista,Felix Richter,Jan.2,2023 https:/Finance,historical data,accessed Jan.13,2023 https:/Top 12 Tech Stories of 2022,”Computerworld,John Gold,Dec.26,2022 https:/Billion in Federal Funding Could Revive the U.S.Computer Chip Industry,”Scientific America,Sophie Bushwick,Aug.8,2022 https:/Rise and Fall of the Fidget Spinner,”The Business of Business,Jeremy Bloom,Apr.18,2018 https:/Reality Check:How The Industry Lost$7.4 Trillion In One Year,”CNBC,Rohan Goswami,Nov.25,2022 https:/Which VC-Backed Companies Are Going Public Via SPAC This Year(So Far),”Crunchbase,Sophia Kunthara,Dec.16,2021 https:/Claw IPOs in 2022;New Rules for Direct Listings,”Bloomberg Law,Preston Brewer,Jan.5,2023 https:/Layoffs to Hit Over 18,000 Workers,the Most in Recent Tech Wave,”Wall Street Journal,Dana Mattioli and Jessica Toonkel,Jan.5,2023 https:/Cap(2012-2022)History,”Netcials,accessed Jan.13,2023 https:/Musk Completes$44 Billion Deal to Own Twitter,”New York Times,Kate Conger and Lauren Hirsch,Oct.27,2022 https:/Layoffs Across the Industry:Amazon,Salesforce and More Cut Staff,”Wall Street Journal,staff,Jan.5,2023 https:/Cuts 20%Jobs Amid Significant Damage To Industry From FTX,”Techcrunch,Manish Singh,Jan.13,2023 https:/More Than 26,000 People Were Laid Off In The Crypto Sector This Year,Forbes,Jack Kelly,Jan.6,2023 https:/To Slash 20%Of Workforce In Second Major Round Of Job Cuts,”CNBC,Kate Rooney,Jan.10,2023 https:/You Need To Know About The FTX Saga That Unfolded Today,”CNN Business,Alisson Morrow,Dec.13,2023 https:/To Sell Its Gear,Reports A$1.2 Billion Loss,”New York Times,Lora Kelley,Aug.25,2022 https:/at All Costs?Not Anymore,”Fast Company,Ido Wiesenberg,Jun.23,2022 https:/Bubble,”Investopedia,Adam Hayes,Jun.25,2019 https:/You Invested$1,000 In Amazon Stock at Its IPO,Heres How Much Youd Have Now,”Motley Food,Trevor Jennewine,Oct.13,2022 https:/Big Dot-Com Flops,”CNN Business,David Goldman,Nov.6,2015 https:/Finance25.“Blue Apron Receives NYSE Delisting Warning,”Winsight Grocery Business,Russell Redman,Jan.3,2023 https:/Tech Acquisitions 2022,”Computerworld,Charlotte Trueman,Sep.14,2022 https:/Care Shutdown Is A Strategic Play,Not A Failure,Some Healthcare Experts Say,”Fierce Healthcare,Heather Landi,Aug.29,2022 https:/the VC Funding Void:Introducing SandboxAQs Strategic Investment Program,”SandboxAQ,Aug.12,2022 https:/Acquires Cryptosense to Accelerate Delivery of Security Solutions to Global Organizations,”Cision/PR Newswire,Sep.14 https:/to Acquire Figma,”Adobe,Sep.15,2022 https:/Equity Pros Remain Bullish on Tech,”WSJ via Mint,Maria Armental,Dec.27,2022 https:/End a Bruising 2022,Stare Down Another Challenging Year,”Wall Street Journal,Heather Somerville,Jan.1,2023 https:/
6 人看过 2023-02-17 17页 5星
软云科技（RYET）美股IPO招股说明书（284页）.pdf
2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm1/284F-1 1 e4313_f-1.htm FORM F-1 As filed with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission on December 29,2022.Registration Statement No.333-UNITED STATESSECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSIONWashington,D.C.20549 Form F-1REGISTRATION STATEMENTUNDERTHE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)Not Applicable(Translation of Registrants name into English)Cayman Islands 7372 Not Applicable(State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization)(Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number)(I.R.S.Employer Identification Number)No.698 Jing Dong Avenue,ZheJiang University HighTech CampusNanchang,Jiangxi,China 3300960791-88567739(Address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of Registrants principal executive offices)Puglisi&Associates850 Library Avenue,Suite 204Newark,DE 19711302-738-6680(Name,address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of agent for service)Copies of all communications,including communications sent to agent for service,should be sent to:Clayton E.Parker,Esq.Matthew Ogurick,Esq.K&L Gates LLP Southeast Financial Center,Suite 3900 200 South Biscayne Boulevard Miami,Florida 33131-2399 Telephone:305-539-3300 Ying Li,Esq.Guillaume de Sampigny,Esq.Hunter Taubman Fischer&Li LLC 48 Wall Street,Suite 1100 New York,NY 10005 Telephone:212-530-2206 Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to public:As soon as practicable after this Registration Statement becomeseffective.If any of the securities being registered on this form are to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 underthe Securities Act of 1933,as amended,check the following box.If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant to Rule 462(b)under the Securities Act,check thefollowing box and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the sameoffering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c)under the Securities Act,check the following box and listthe Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm2/284If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d)under the Securities Act,check the following box and listthe Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act:Emerging growth company.If an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S.GAAP,indicate by check mark if theregistrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accountingstandards provided pursuant to Section 7(a)(2)(B)of the Securities Act.The term“new or revised financial accounting standard”refers to any update issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Boardto its Accounting Standards Codification after April 5,2012.The registrant hereby amends this registration statement on such date or dates as may be necessary to delay its effective dateuntil the registrant shall file a further amendment which specifically states that this registration statement shall thereafterbecome effective in accordance with Section 8(a)of the Securities Act of 1933,as amended,or until the registration statementshall become effective on such date as the Commission,acting pursuant to such Section 8(a),may determine.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm3/284 The information in this prospectus is not complete and may be changed.We may not sell these securities until the registrationstatement filed with the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission is effective.This prospectus is not an offer to sell these securitiesand it is not soliciting an offer to buy these securities in any jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted.SUBJECT TO COMPLETION,DATED DECEMBER 29,2022 PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUS 5,000,000 Ordinary Shares Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.We are offering 5,000,000 ordinary shares.This is the initial public offering of ordinary shares of Ruanyun Edai TechnologyInc.The offering price of our ordinary shares in this offering is expected to be between$5.00 and$6.00 per share.Prior to thisoffering,there has been no public market for our ordinary shares.We have applied to list our ordinary shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol“RYET.”There is no assurance thatsuch application will be approved,and if our application is not approved,this offering will not be completed.Investing in our ordinary shares is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk.Before buying any shares,youshould carefully read the discussion of material risks of investing in our ordinary shares in“Risk Factors”beginning on page22 of this prospectus.We are an“emerging growth company”as defined under the federal securities laws and,as such,will be subject to reducedpublic company reporting requirements.See“Prospectus SummaryImplications of Being an Emerging Growth Company and aForeign Private Issuer”for additional information.We are not a Chinese operating company but a Cayman Islands holding company with no operations.We conduct substantiallyall of our operations in the Peoples Republic of China,or the PRC or China,through Jiangxi Ruanyun,the variable interest entity(VIE)and its subsidiaries.We do not have any equity ownership of the VIE,instead,we have the power to direct the activities andreceive the economic benefits and absorb losses of the VIEs business operations through certain Contractual Arrangements(asdefined below)and the VIE is consolidated for accounting purposes.This structure involves unique risks to investors.This VIEstructure is used to provide contractual exposure through the Contractual Arrangement to foreign investment in Chinese-basedcompanies where Chinese law prohibits direct foreign investment in the operating companies.Under the Contractual Arrangements,cash is transferred among the Company,Rollingthunder Technology(Jiangxi)Co.,Ltd,orour WFOE,Soft Cloud and the VIE,in the following methods:(i)dividends or other distributions may be paid by Rollingthunder Jiangxi,or our WFOE,to the Company through our HongKong subsidiary;(ii)Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,or Ruanyun(the Cayman Islands holding company)transfers proceeds raised through thisoffering or any other offering we conduct at this level to our wholly owned subsidiary,Soft Cloud Technology Limited,or SoftCloud,which in turn transfers such proceeds down to the WFOE in the form of capital contributions or shareholder loans,as the casemay be,which in turn transfers such proceeds in the form of loans to the VIE pursuant to the Contractual Arrangements,for thepurpose of conducting business operations;(iii)funds,may be paid by Jiangxi Ruanyun,or the VIE,to Rollingthunder Jiangxi,or our WFOE,as service fees according tothe Contractual Arrangements;As of the date of this prospectus,there were no cash flows among the Company,Soft Cloud,our WFOE,and Jiangxi Ruanyun,or the VIE.As of the date of this prospectus,no dividends or distributions have been made to the respective shareholders of suchentities.For the foreseeable future,the VIE intends to keep any future earnings to re-invest in and finance the expansion of itsbusiness.We currently do not maintain any cash management policies that dictate the purpose,amount and procedure of cashtransfers among the Company,Soft Cloud,our WFOE,the VIE,or investors.Rather,the funds can be transferred in accordance withapplicable PRC laws and regulations.For more details,see“Regulations-Regulations Relating to Foreign Exchange Registration ofOverseas Investment by PRC Residents.”i2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm4/284 The ordinary shares offered in this offering are shares of our offshore holding company,Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,insteadof shares of the VIE or its subsidiaries in China.For a description of the Contractual Arrangements,see“Corporate History andStructureContractual Arrangements.”Based on the Contractual Arrangements,we account for Jiangxi Ruanyun as a VIE.Morespecifically,we have the power to direct the activities of Jiangxi Ruanyun and become the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyunfor accounting purposes through such Contractual Arrangements,which are less effective than direct ownership.Our power to directthe activities of Jiangxi Ruanyun and our position of being the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun for the accounting purposesare limited to the conditions that we met for consolidation of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP.Such conditions include that(i)wehave the power to direct the activities that could most significantly affect the economic performance of Jiangxi Ruanyun and(ii)weare entitled to receive benefits and obligated to absorb losses from Jiangxi Ruanyun that could potentially be significant to JiangxiRuanyun.Accordingly,we consolidate the accounts of Jiangxi Ruanyun for the periods presented herein for accounting purposes,inaccordance with Regulation S-X-3A-02 promulgated by the SEC,and ASC Topic 810-10,Consolidation:Overall.Only if we meetthe aforementioned conditions to be the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP,we will consolidate JianxiRuanyun and Jiangxi Ruanyun will be treated as our consolidated affiliated entities for accounting purposes.As a result of the VIE structure,investors may never directly hold equity interests in the VIE.We acknowledge that Chineseregulatory authorities could disallow this structure,which would likely result in a material change in our operations and/or value ofour ordinary shares,including that it could cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or become worthless.Furthermore,the Contractual Arrangements have not been tested in a court of law.For a description of the ContractualArrangements,see“Corporate History and StructureOur Contractual Arrangements.”Please also see our“Risk Factors”for adetailed discussion of risks facing the Company and the offering as a result of this structure.We currently conduct substantially all of our operations in,and substantially all of our revenue is generated in,the PRC.Accordingly,changes in economic,political,and legal environments in the PRC can significantly affect our business,including ourfinancial condition,results of operations,and business prospects.Policies,regulations,rules,and the enforcement of laws of theChinese government can have significant effects on economic conditions in the PRC and therefore,corporate profitability.Ourprofitability in the PRC may be adversely affected by changes in policies,regulations,rules,and the enforcement of laws by theChinese government,which changes may be announced or implemented with little or no advance notice.Recently,the Chinese government promulgated a series of statements and actions to regulate business operations in China withlimited advance notice,including cracking down on illegal activities in the securities market,enhancing supervision over China-based companies listed overseas using variable interest entity structures,adopting new measures to extend the scope of cybersecurityreviews,and expanding efforts with respect to anti-monopoly enforcement.For example,the General Office of the CentralCommittee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council jointly issued the“Opinions on SeverelyCracking Down on Illegal Securities Activities According to Law”,or the Opinions,which were made available to the public on July6,2021.The Opinions emphasized the need to strengthen administration over illegal securities activities and the need to strengthensupervision with respect to overseas listings of Chinese companies.Moreover,the Cyberspace Administration of China,or the CAC,promulgated the Cybersecurity Review Measure that became effective on February 15,2022,which extend the scope ofcybersecurity review to data processing operators engaging in data processing activities that affect or may affect national security,including listing in a foreign country,and require a mandate clearance of cybersecurity review to be completed by network platformoperator that possess personal information of more than 1 million users.The Opinions,the Cybersecurity Review Measure and anyrelated implementing rules that have been enacted or to be enacted may subject us to compliance requirements in the future,such asregulatory review of overseas listing of China-based company and cybersecurity review.As of the date of this prospectus,the actualnumber of users personal information used by the VIE and its subsidiaries is well below one million(based on our owncalculations).The users personal information used by the VIE and its subsidiaries is authorized by the entity that owns and controlsit.Therefore,Jiangxi Ruanyun is not subject to this review.On July 7,2022,CAC promulgated the Measures for the SecurityAssessment of Data Cross-border Transfer,effective on September 1,2022,which requires the data processors to apply for datacross-border security assessment coordinated by the CAC under the following circumstances:(i)any data processor transfersimportant data to overseas;(ii)any critical information infrastructure operator or data processor who processes personal informationof over 1 million people provides personal information to overseas;(iii)any data processor who provides personal information tooverseas and has already provided personal information of more than 100,000 people or sensitive personal information of more than10,000 people to overseas since January 1st of the previous year and;and(iv)other circumstances under which the data cross-border transfer security assessment is required as prescribed by the CAC.As of the date of this prospectus,we believe the VIE andits subsidiaries have none of the aforesaid circumstances.Therefore,the VIE and its subsidiaries are currently not subject to the datacross-border security assessment.However,if such assessment is required in the future,we cannot assure you that we will completethe relevant procedure on a timely basis.See“Risk Factor We are subject to a variety of laws and other obligations regarding dataprotection,any failure to comply with applicable laws and obligations could have a material adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations.”ii2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm5/284 In addition,on December 24,2021,the CSRC,issued the Provisions of the State Council on the Administration of OverseasSecurities Offering and Listing by Domestic Companies(Draft for Comments),or the Draft Administrative Provisions,and theMeasures for the Filing of Overseas Securities Offering and Listing by Domestic Companies(Draft for Comments),or the DraftFiling Measures,which require China-based companies seeking overseas offering and listing shall file with the CSRC within threeworking days after making initial applications with overseas stock markets for initial public offerings or listings.As of the date ofthis prospectus,the PRC laws and regulations that currently in effect do not explicitly require us to seek approval from the CSRC forour overseas listing plan,however,we will be required to file with the CSRC prior to our listing on NASDAQ if the DraftAdministrative Provisions and the Draft Filing Measures have been fully enacted in the foreseeable future.See“Risk Factor Draftrules for China-based companies seeking for securities offerings in foreign stock markets was released by the CSRC for publicconsultation.While such rules have not yet come into effect as of the date of this prospectus,the Chinese government may exert moreoversight and control over overseas public offerings conducted by China-based issuers,which could significantly limit or completelyhinder our ability to offer or continue to offer our Ordinary Shares to investors and could cause the value of our Ordinary Shares tosignificantly decline or become worthless.”.Since these statements and regulatory actions are new,it is highly uncertain how soonlegislative or administrative regulation making bodies will respond and what existing or new laws or regulations or detailedimplementations and interpretations will be modified or promulgated,if any,and the potential impact such modified or new laws andregulations will have on our daily business operation,the ability to accept foreign investments or list on a U.S.exchange.Given thecurrent regulatory environment in the PRC,we are still subject to the uncertainty of different interpretation and enforcement of therules and regulations in the PRC adverse to us,which may be announced or implemented with little or no advance notice,and whichmay materially and adversely impact our results of operations,may limit or completely hinder our ability to offer or continue to offersecurities to investors,and/or may cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or be worthless.See“Risk Factors-Risks Related to Our Business and Industry.”On December 18,2020,the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,or the HFCAA,was signed into law,requiring aforeign company to certify it is not owned or controlled by a foreign government if the Public Company Accounting OversightBoard,or the PCAOB,is unable to audit specified reports because the company uses a foreign auditor not subject to PCAOBinspection.If the PCAOB is unable to inspect the companys auditors for three consecutive years,the issuers securities areprohibited to trade on a national exchange.Our auditor,Friedman LLP,the independent registered public accounting firm that issuesthe audit report included elsewhere in this prospectus,as an auditor of companies that are traded publicly in the United States and afirm registered with the PCAOB,is subject to laws in the United States pursuant to which the PCAOB conducts regular inspectionsto assess our auditors compliance with the applicable professional standards.Our auditor is headquartered in Manhattan,New York,and has been inspected by the PCAOB on a regular basis.The PCAOB currently has access to inspect the working papers of ourauditor and our auditor was not subject to the determinations announced by the PCAOB on December 16,2021,whichdeterminations were vacated on December 15,2022.Pursuant to the HFCAA,the SEC has the power to identify issuers whose auditors the PCAOB is unable to inspect orinvestigate completely because of a position taken by an authority in a foreign jurisdiction,or a PCAOB-Identified Firm.The SECwill provisionally identify any such issuer as a“Commission-Identified Issuer”on the SECs website.If we are identified as aCommission-Identified Issuer by the SEC,we may be subject to restrictions under such rules including prohibitions on the trading ofour shares,either temporarily or indefinitely.On June 22,2021,the U.S.Senate passed the Accelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,or the AHFCAA.Ifsigned into law,the AHFCAA would decrease the number of non-inspection years under the HFCAA from three years to two,thusreducing the time period before an issuers securities may be prohibited from trading or may be delisted.On August 26,2022,the PCAOB announced that it had signed a Statement of Protocol,or the SOP,with the China SecuritiesRegulatory Commission and the Ministry of Finance of China.The SOP,together with two protocol agreements governinginspections and investigations,or together,the SOP Agreement,established a specific,accountable framework to make possiblecomplete inspections and investigations by the PCAOB of audit firms based in mainland China and Hong Kong,as required underU.S.law.On December 15,2022,the PCAOB announced that it was able to secure complete access to inspect and investigate PCAOB-registered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong completely in 2022.The PCAOB vacated itsprevious 2021 determinations that the PCAOB was unable to inspect or investigate completely registered public accounting firmsheadquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong.However,whether the PCAOB will continue to be able to satisfactorily conductinspections of PCAOB-registered public accounting firms headquartered in mainland China and Hong Kong is subject to uncertaintyand depends on a number of factors out of our,and our auditors,control.The PCAOB is continuing to demand complete access inmainland China and Hong Kong moving forward and is already making plans to resume regular inspections in early 2023 andbeyond,as well as to continue pursuing ongoing investigations and initiate new investigations as needed.The PCAOB has indicatedthat it will act immediately to consider the need to issue new determinations with the HFCAA if needed.If the PCAOB in the futureagain determines that it is unable to inspect and investigate completely auditors in mainland China and Hong Kong,then thecompanies audited by those auditors would be subject to a trading prohibition on U.S.markets pursuant to the HFCAA.iii2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm6/284 For further information relating to the HFCAA and the AHFCAA,see“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China The recent joint statement by the SEC and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board,or the PCAOB,proposed rulechanges submitted by Nasdaq,and the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act all call for additional and more stringentcriteria to be applied to emerging market companies upon assessing the qualification of their auditors,especially non-U.S.auditorswho are not inspected by the PCAOB.These developments could add uncertainties to our offering.”Unless otherwise indicated or the context otherwise requires,all references in this prospectus to the terms the“Company,”“we,”“us”and“our”refer to Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,or Ruanyun,and its direct and indirect subsidiaries,including Soft CloudTechnology Limited,or Soft Cloud,and Rollingthunder Technology(Jiangxi)Co.,Ltd,or Rollingthunder Jiangxi,or our WFOE,which we define as our“PRC subsidiary”,but not including Jiangxi Ruanyun Technology Co.,Ltd.,the variable interest entity,which we define as the“VIE”herein or“Jiangxi Ruanyun”,and the subsidiaries of the VIE including Jiangxi Alphabet TechnologyCo.,Ltd.,or Jiangxi Alphabet,Jiangxi Huizuoye Technology Co.,Ltd,and Jiangxi Jiaotou Technology Co.,Ltd,and the branchoffice of the VIE refers to Jiangxi Ruanyun Technology Co.,Ltd.(Shenzhen Branch),or Shenzhen Ruanyun.We refer to the VIE,together with its subsidiaries and branch office as“the VIE and its subsidiaries”herein.Neither the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission nor any other regulatory body has approved or disapproved ofthese securities or passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this prospectus.Any representation to the contrary is a criminaloffense.PER SHARE TOTALInitial public offering price$Underwriting discounts(1)$Proceeds,before expenses,to us$(1)We have agreed to issue,on the closing date of this offering,warrants,or the underwriters warrants,to the underwriters,Univest Securities,LLC,or the representative,and AC Sunshine Securities LLC,in an aggregate amount equal to 1%of theaggregate number of ordinary shares sold by us in this offering,inclusive of the underwriters over-allotment option.UnivestSecurities,LLC and AC Sunshine Securities LLC will each receive underwriters warrants to purchase a number of ordinary sharesequal to 0.5%of the total number of ordinary shares sold in this offering,inclusive of the underwriters over-allotment option.For adescription of other terms of the underwriters warrants and a description of the other compensation to be received by theunderwriters,see“Underwriting”beginning on page 167.We expect our total cash expenses for this offering(including cash expenses payable to our underwriters for their out-of-pocketexpenses)to be approximately$1.1 million,exclusive of the above discounts.In addition,we will pay additional items of value inconnection with this offering that are viewed by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,or FINRA,as underwritingcompensation.These payments will further reduce proceeds available to us before expenses.See“Underwriting.”This offering is being conducted on a firm commitment basis.The underwriters are obligated to take and pay for all of theshares if any such shares are taken.We have granted the underwriters an option for a period of 45 days after the closing of thisoffering to purchase up to 15%of the total number of our ordinary shares to be offered by us pursuant to this offering(excludingshares subject to this option),solely for the purpose of covering over-allotments,at the initial public offering price less theunderwriting discounts.If the underwriters exercise the option in full,the total underwriting discounts payable will be$2,213,750based on an assumed initial public offering price of$5.50 per ordinary share(the midpoint of the price range set forth on the coverpage of this prospectus),and the total gross proceeds to us,before underwriting discounts,non-accountable expense allowance andexpenses,will be$31,625,000.If we complete this offering,net proceeds will be delivered to us on the closing date.We will not beable to use such proceeds in China,however,until we complete capital contribution procedures which require prior approval fromeach of the respective local counterparts of Chinas Ministry of Commerce,the State Administration for Market Regulation,and theState Administration of Foreign Exchange.See remittance procedures in the section titled“Use of Proceeds”beginning on page 63.The underwriters expect to deliver the ordinary shares against payment as set forth under“Underwriting”,on or about,2023.The date of this prospectus is,2023.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm7/284iv2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm8/284 TABLE OF CONTENTS PageProspectus Summary1Risk Factors22Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements61Industry and Market Data62Use of Proceeds63Dividend Policy64Capitalization65Dilution66Exchange Rate Information67Corporate History and Structure68Selected Consolidated Financial Data71Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations72Business90Regulation125Management141Related Party Transactions147Principal Shareholders149Description of Share Capital and Governing Documents150Shares Eligible for Future Sale160Material Income Tax Considerations162Underwriting167Expenses Related to this Offering172Legal Matters173Experts173Enforcement of Liabilities174Where You Can Find Additional Information175Index to Consolidated Financial StatementsF-1 We are responsible for the information contained in this prospectus and any free writing prospectus we prepare orauthorize.We have not,and the underwriters have not,authorized anyone to provide you with different information,and weand the underwriters take no responsibility for any other information others may give you.We are not,and the underwritersare not,making an offer to sell our ordinary shares in any jurisdiction where the offer or sale is not permitted.You shouldnot assume that the information contained in this prospectus is accurate as of any date other than the date on the front coverof this prospectus,regardless of the time of delivery of this prospectus or the sale of any ordinary shares.For investors outside the United States:Neither we nor the underwriters have done anything that would permit this offering orpossession or distribution of this prospectus in any jurisdiction,other than the United States,where action for that purpose isrequired.Persons outside the United States who come into possession of this prospectus must inform themselves about,and observeany restrictions relating to,the offering of the ordinary shares and the distribution of this prospectus outside the United States.We are incorporated under the laws of the Cayman Islands as an exempted company with limited liability and a majority of ouroutstanding securities are owned by non-U.S.residents.Under the rules of the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission,or theSEC,we currently qualify for treatment as a“foreign private issuer.”As a foreign private issuer,we will not be required to fileperiodic reports and financial statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission,or the SEC,as frequently or as promptly asdomestic registrants whose securities are registered under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,as amended,or the Exchange Act.Until and including,2023(25 days after the date of this prospectus),all dealers that buy,sell or trade our ordinaryshares,whether or not participating in this offering,may be required to deliver a prospectus.This delivery requirement is inaddition to the obligation of dealers to deliver a prospectus when acting as underwriters and with respect to their unsoldallotments or subscriptions.v2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm9/284 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm10/284 vi2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm11/284 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm12/284 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm13/284vii2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm14/284 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm15/284 2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm16/284viii2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm17/284 CONVENTIONS THAT APPLY TO THIS PROSPECTUS We control and receive the economic benefits and absorb losses of the VIE and its subsidiaries business operations through theContractual Arrangements(defined hereinafter).Based on the Contractual Arrangements,we account for Jiangxi Ruanyun as a VIE.More specifically,we have the power to direct the activities Jiangxi Ruanyun and become the primary beneficiary of JiangxiRuanyun for accounting purposes through such Contractual Arrangements,which are less effective than direct ownership.Ourpower to direct the activities of Jiangxi Ruanyun and our position of being the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun foraccounting purposes are limited to the conditions that we met for consolidation of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP.Suchconditions include that(i)we have the power to direct the activities that could most significantly affect the economic performanceJiangxi Ruanyun,and(ii)we are entitled to receive benefits and obligated to absorb losses from Jiangxi Ruanyun that couldpotentially be significant to Jiangxi Ruanyun.Accordingly,we consolidate the accounts of Jiangxi Ruanyun for the periods presentedherein,in accordance with Regulation S-X-3A-02 promulgated by the SEC,and ASC Topic 810-10,Consolidation:Overall.Webelieve the Contractual Arrangements are in compliance with the current PRC laws and are legally enforceable.However,uncertainties in the interpretation and enforcement of the PRC laws,regulations and policies could affect the validity of theContractual Arrangements or limit our ability to enforce the Contractual Arrangements.Furthermore,the Contractual Arrangementshave not been tested in a court of law.As a result,we may be unable to consolidate the VIE and its subsidiaries in the consolidatedfinancial statements.Our position of being the primary beneficiary of the VIE and its subsidiaries also depends on the authorizationby the shareholders of the VIE to exercise voting rights on all matters requiring shareholders approval in the VIE.As of the date ofthis prospectus,we believe that the agreements on the authorization to exercise shareholders voting power are valid and legallyenforceable.See“Risk Factors-Risks Related to our Corporate Structure”for further information.We are offering ordinary shares of Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,a holding company incorporated in the Cayman Islands.“PRC”or“China”refers to the Peoples Republic of China,excluding,for the purpose of this prospectus,Taiwan.Hong Kong”refers to the special administrative region of the Peoples Republic of China.“RMB”or“Renminbi”refers to the legal currency of China.“HKD”or“HK$”refers to the legal currency of Hong Kong.“$”or“U.S.dollars”refers to the legal currency of the United States.“PRC laws”,“PRC laws and regulations”refers to the laws and regulations that apply to the mainland of China,excluding,forthe purpose of this prospectus,Taiwan,Hong Kong and Macau.We have made rounding adjustments to some of the figures included in this prospectus.Accordingly,numerical figures shownas totals in some tables may not be an arithmetic aggregation of the figures that preceded them.Unless the context indicates otherwise,all information in this prospectus assumes no exercise by the underwriters of their over-allotment option and no exercise of the underwriters warrants.Our reporting currency is U.S.dollars.The functional currency of the Company and its subsidiaries incorporated in Hong Kongis U.S.dollars.The functional currency of the Companys PRC subsidiaries,the VIE and its subsidiaries is RMB.The determinationof the respective functional currency is based on the criteria of Accounting Standards Codification(“ASC”)Topic 830,ForeignCurrency Matters.The consolidated financial statements are translated from the functional currency to the reporting currency,USD.We use the average exchange rate for the year and the exchange rate at the balance sheet date to translate the operating results andfinancial position,except for equity,respectively.For equity items,we used the historical exchange rate to translate the equity itemsfrom functional currency to reporting currency.Translation differences are recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income,acomponent of shareholders deficits.Transactions denominated in foreign currencies are re-measured into the functional currency atthe exchange rates prevailing on the transaction dates.Monetary assets and liabilities denominated in foreign currencies are re-measured at the exchange rates prevailing at the balance sheet date.Non-monetary items that are measured in terms of historicalcosts in foreign currency are re-measured using the exchange rates at the dates of the initial transactions.Exchange gains and lossesare included in the consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income(loss).The consolidated balance sheet amounts,with the exception of equity,at March 31,2022 and 2021 were translated RMB 6.3393 to$1.00 and at RMB 6.5518 to$1.00respectively.Equity accounts were stated at their historical rates.The average translation rates applied to consolidated statements ofoperations and cash flows for the years ended March 31,2022 and 2021 were RMB 6.4180 to and$1.00 and RMB 6.7834 to$1.00,respectively.ix2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm18/284 PROSPECTUS SUMMARY The following summary highlights information contained elsewhere in this prospectus and does not contain all of theinformation you should consider before investing in our ordinary shares.You should read the entire prospectus carefully,including“Risk Factors,”“Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,”and our consolidatedfinancial statements and the related notes thereto,in each case included in this prospectus.You should carefully consider,amongother things,the matters discussed in the section of this prospectus titled“Business”before making an investment decision.Overview-What is Ruanyun We are a data driven artificial intelligence,or A.I.,technology company focused on kindergarten through year twelve,or K-12education in China.We bring technology to schools,and we are committed to reforming the traditional Chinese education andlearning model by facilitating schools,teachers and students with new teaching,learning,and assessment methods in the A.I.era.We believe the road to college should come with directions.Our mission is to help each K-12 student understand their specialtyand find their way to higher education and future success.We believe we have one of the most comprehensive online learningecosystems covering all K-12 subject fields and grade levels,one of the largest academic exercise question banks that is designedand built for interactive learning,and one of the most advanced A.I.algorithms that power such questions,all of which areaccessible online and on demand.As of November 30,2022,our online academic exercise question bank has accumulated more than 10 billion test datagenerated by approximately 14.26 million students from more than 27,000 schools and we have issued over 298 million evaluationreports.With the continuous collection and analyzing of students online learning data,our A.I.algorithms are constantly expandingand upgrading,reaching an evaluation accuracy rate of 97%(based on our own calculations),allowing us to provide students withtailored and effective learning strategies.We believe that,in time,our online learning platform will be proven revolutionary inaffecting the advancement of Chinas K-12 education system.As of November 30,2022,approximately 14.26 million students use Jiangxi Ruanyun to collect their daily homework exercisedata,prepare for a test or attend the Academic Proficiency Assessment,which is an official assessment across all subjects taught inschools,conducted by the Education Testing Authority in China.This allows us to understand each student better and enables us tohelp them reach the next level of educational success with an effective strategy,every step of the way.We value our proprietary technologies and strong research and development capabilities,which we believe differentiate us fromother companies in our industry.As of the date of this prospectus,we have an intellectual property portfolio consisting of 11 patents(9 of which have been registered and 2 are pending)and 23 trademarks filed with the PRC State Intellectual PropertyAdministration,50 copyrights registered with the PRC State Copyright Bureau,and 8 domain names.What We Offer Over the last decade,our A.I.learning platform has expanded from learning to assessment in school to A.I application,servicesand hardware.We believe we are a trend-setter in reforming the traditional education model in China using the technologicalprogress brought about by the advent of A.I.technology.We believe we are the only educational A.I.company in China that servesboth everyday learning and Academic Proficiency Test in school.We provide computerized testing for Chinas Academic ProficiencyTest,or ATP,which is equivalent to the SAT in China.Our everyday learning to official assessment model allows us to expand into arange of personalized“online”services and“offline”products for students in high demand.12023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm19/284 We currently sell our products and services through two primary product lines,namely our SmartExam solution andSmartHomework solution.Our SmartHomework solution delivers personalized learning solutions for students to study moreeffectively.Teachers can adjust instructions for students based on their specific needs.In addition,our SmartExam solution helpsdeliver Chinas Academic Proficiency Test,which is required in China for obtaining a high-school diploma,in computer-basedformat.We also provide self-learning solutions and smart-devices,such as smart printer/smart headset for everyday study and testpreparation.Everyday Teaching and Learning Our SmartHomework system is a digital teaching and learning decision platform,which collects paper-based homework datawith our intelligent scanning machine.During collection,the system can evaluate the grasp of knowledge for each student,and theteacher can adjust instructions for students based on their specific needs.Items that should be reviewed in the next class and AIgenerated instructions are provided to the teacher immediately.As the homework data is collected,the system generates a personalized exercise book,or P.E.Book,with analogy questionspersonalized for each student.Our professional“Personalized Publishing”service delivers the P.E.Book in print within 24 hours.This helps each student study more effectively without changing their normal study habits.The items that students practice would bedetermined by their own study data,and it is published to them in a personalized and timely style.In addition,our A.I.learning platform provides teachers and students with additional online services.Based on the homeworkdata collected,the system helps teachers adjust their instructions for students who are either ahead or behind in their studies.Thestudents,on the other hand,have access to their historic study data.Personalized online courses and adaptive online practices arealso provided on demand.While practicing online,the system provides consistent feedback to help students stay on course in theirstudies.We believe this is a revolutionary tool for students to learn and that it can significantly improve their academic performance.We continuously accumulate students learning data during their learning process,analyzing students logical thinking,spatialimagination,language skills,analytical reasoning and other specific characteristics.This allows us to provide both scientific andempirical assessments to each student and recommend solutions based on his/her individual learning needs.In July 2021,the China central government officially released the“Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of ExcessiveHomework and Off-Campus Tutoring for Students Undergoing Compulsory Education”,or the Opinions,policy,seeking to decreaseworkloads for students and overhaul the private tutoring sector.In the policy,it states that elementary students must finish homeworkin-school,and junior high school students finish most of their homework in-school.Our SmartHomework solution provides in-school service aiming to help students to study more efficiently.Under the background of the Opinions,local governments havequickly chosen our SmartHomework solution to push new reforms into effect throughout Jiangxi Province.Academic Proficiency Test Chinas Academic Proficiency Test is an official assessment across all subjects taught in school.There are eleven subjectassessments which include Chinese,Math,English,Physics,Chemistry,Biology,Political Science,History,Geography,InformationTechnology and General Technology.APT assessments covering these 11 subjects need to be taken both during the secondary andhigh school periods.The secondary school APT assessments would be included as part of the high school admission process,whilethe high school APT is a pre-requisite for obtaining ones high school diploma.22023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm20/284 We began providing computer-based APT services for the subject of Biology in 2013 and expanded to all eleven subjects in2017.Today,our SmartExam platform covers all aspects of the APT test,from attesting and management of systems,to buildingtest contents,and constructing certified test centers.We also provide services to help testing Authorities with staff training,onsitemanagement to academic proficiency evaluations.As of November 30,2022,we believe we are the only computer-basededucational APT assessment vendor in China for all subjects.Chinas education ministry promoted local education authorities to adopt computer-based APT to replace traditional paper-based exam gradually.Influenced by the“Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden of Excessive Homework and Off-CampusTutoring for Students Undergoing Compulsory Education”,or the Opinions,policy,high school and college admission decisions willtake APT grades and multi-dimensional assessment into consideration.In such,for junior or senior high school students,APT scoresare required for higher level education admissions.For senior high school graduates seeking to study overseas,official APT gradesare widely accepted by institutions around the world.Test Preparation Building on the APT assessment services,we have introduced test-preparation books and adaptive practice applications andbegan to invest in building smart devices that further enhance students learning experience and efficiency.This is how wedeveloped APT practices books for each subject and invented Jiangxi Ruanyun Smart-Headset for English assessments.Studentswho take any mock test in our online practice application have access to video lessons and will receive personalized study resourcesbased on their test results.Industry Background Chinas National Peoples Congress enacted the PRC Educational Law which sets forth provisions relating to the fundamentaleducation system in China.This includes the school system of preschool,elementary school,middle,or secondary,school and highschool(namely,K-12),with grades from one through twelve being compulsory education.The law also stipulates a system ofeducational certificates,which require taking a series of tests and pass certain exams.The pinnacle of such exams is the NationalCollege Entrance Exam,or NCEE,also known as Gao Kao.Today,China has the largest K-12 education system in the world.According to Ministry of Education of the Peoples Republicof China,as of December 2021,Chinas K-12 system had over 184 million students,including approximately 108 million primaryschool students,50 million secondary school students and 26 million high school students across over 221,800 schools.Over the past 40 years,particularly since China resumed the NCEE in 1977,Chinas K-12 educational system has beenshouldering the responsibility of both providing public education to the masses as well as training and selecting a large number ofqualified professionals.In July of each year,millions of Chinese high school graduates take the NCEE.Their NCEE scores willdetermine whether the students have the option to continue with their more advanced studies in colleges and universities,or enterinto the general workforce,most occupations of which do not have college degree requirements and therefore inadvertently sustain alesser social and economic status.Hence,the term“one test for life”describes Gao Kao as an existential turning point in millions ofyoung peoples lives each year in China.From 2019 to 2020,according to the China National Bureau of Statistics as of Ministry of Education of the Peoples Republicof China,Chinas national education expenditure was 4.22%of GDP,which represented a higher level of such spending amongdeveloping and developed countries alike.In 2020,Chinas educational spending was 4.2 trillion RMB(approximately$640 billion),a year-over-year growth of 7.10%.Since 2016,the Education Ministry of China has made various attempts to reform Chinaseducational system,aiming to rid the“one test for life”reality and to evaluate students performance and potentials on a morecomprehensive basis.This is a reform of tremendous undertaking and is expected to be carried out to each provincial and municipallevel within China.However,in its early stage,Chinas well-intended and sometimes heavy-handed approach to such a reform hasnot been without adverse consequences,which we believe mainly stem from the following issues:The distribution of educational resources is uneven in China.In a modern and fast-paced society,the traditional ways of teaching,learning and academic evaluation are proven lessefficient,effective and fair.Without a new and more holistic approach in place,standardized test-taking still dominates students performance evaluation.32023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm21/284 Consequently,the competition for resources and the emphasis on the results of standardized tests have only intensified,whiletech-savvy students and parents look to the internet for gaining a competitive edge and academic advancement.As a result,centraland local governments alike are seeking solutions to this matter.According to iResearch as of December 2020,the market size ofChinas K-12 after-school tutoring education reached 530 billion RMB(approximately$79 billion)as of 2020.Meanwhile,according to the China Statistics Bureau,Chinas household education and entertainment expenditure grew at a compound rate ofover 7%from 2014 to 2021.We aspire to be the preferred A.I.educational technology provider to Chinas approximate 184 millionK-12 students in about 221,800 schools.According to Duojing Caiptal as of December 2019,the traditional K-12 student homework book market alone reached overRMB102.3 billion(approximately$16 billion)in 2019.With the recent digital transformation ongoing in Chinas school system andadvanced AI technologies,personalized homework books are introduced to help students study efficiently.Personalized homeworkbooks can be in both digital and paper-based format.Such books contain custom-made learning and practice content for each studentby classification according to students current learning situations and learning abilities.They can be delivered to students online orpublished and delivered in paper by demand.We believe this new form of publishing is becoming one of the most sought aftermodels with an expected RMB80 billion(approximately$12 billion)in market size in 2026 according to the Company estimates andcalculations.In addition,the computer-based APT is also setting a new trend for the test-preparation market.As the assessment is changingfrom paper-based to computerized format,the test preparation solutions and smart devices markets is experiencing rapid growth.Thecomputer-based assessment is currently being implemented in one province(Jiangxi)as the pilot project for the China EducationDepartment.According to iResearch,as of September 2022,the smart learning device market reached RMB35.3 billion(approximately$5.4 billion)in 2020 and is expected to grow to over RMB 66 billion(approximately$10.25 billion)as thecomputer-based test format becomes mainstream.Our Strengths-What Sets Us Apart We believe the following competitive strengths differentiate us from our competitors and have contributed to our success:Integration with Schools:We strongly believe that students should do most of their learning in schools,therefore we bringour technology to them there.We deliver online academic exercise content,build A.I.Study Rooms on campuses,andintegrate our SmartHomework platform with students daily learning.Leading Technologies:Since inception,we have continued to develop our proprietary big data analytic and online A.I.algorithms;they underpin the delivery of our products and services for the benefit of improving students learningefficiency and academic performance.We have invested significant resources in research and development,and we havebuilt a strong research and development team.Big Data:Since establishment,our database has accumulated more than 10 billion study data generated by over 14.26million users in more than 27,000 schools,and we have issued over 298 million evaluation report reports.High Quality Content:We believe the academic exercise question bank that we have created is a leader in the market.Itcovers all grades and subjects and has over 15,064 high-quality knowledge points as of November 30,2022.It is in highdemand by schools,other educational service providers,and testing authorities.Customer Loyalty:We have built our user base by serving our users learning journeys,which we believe leads to a highdegree of loyalty to our brand.Our customer base also enables us to continually cross-sell and upsell our products andservices and to expand our market share.Scalable Business Model:Capitalizing on our proprietary technology infrastructure,our consumer,or 2C,and governmentprocurement,or 2G,businesses can be expanded and replicated with consistency very quickly,which,in the foreseeablefuture,we believe will help us achieve economy of scale and profitability and enable us to efficiently address the needs ofour customers.Visionary and Experienced management team.We have a visionary and experienced management team with strongexecution capability.We believe that the extensive experience,service and product knowledge,strategic vision andexecution capabilities of our management team will allow us to continue to execute our growth strategies to achieve ahigh level of success.42023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm22/284 Our Strategies-How We Approach the Future We seek to be a major technological solution provider with respect to Chinas education reform and to lead the development ofthe A.I.learning industry.Our primary goal is to establish ourselves as a dominant A.I.educational technology company in China.We plan to pursue the following growth strategies to achieve our goals:Further develop and pursue existing marketing channels;Expand service offerings on our learning platform;Continue to offer ancillary products and services;Utilize a top-down marketing approach for school integration;Develop new products and services for enhancing the online learning experience:Promote our Personalized Exercise Book service to active users:Accelerate the market expansion of SmartExam services:and Strengthen the construction of our exercise bank.Corporate History and Structure Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,or Ruanyun,is a holding company and was incorporated in the Cayman Islands on March 11,2021.Ruanyun,through its consolidated subsidiaries,the VIE,and the VIEs subsidiaries,is primarily engaged in providing onlineacademic exercise question banks with A.I.capabilities,online classes and homework,and on-demand lectures and evaluations thatcover all K-12 subject fields and grade levels.Our principal operations and geographic markets are mainly in the PRC.We are a holding company incorporated in the Cayman Islands.As a holding company with no material operations of our own,we conduct a substantial majority of our operations through the VIE and its subsidiaries in China.We control and receive theeconomic benefits and absorb losses of the VIE and its subsidiaries business operations through certain contractual arrangementswith Jiangxi Ruanyun and its shareholders,or the Contractual Arrangements.The ordinary shares offered in this offering are sharesof our offshore holding company,Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,instead of shares of the VIE or its subsidiaries in China.For adescription of the Contractual Arrangements,see“Corporate History and StructureContractual Arrangements.”Based on theContractual Arrangements,we account for Jiangxi Ruanyun as a VIE.More specifically,we have the power to direct the activities ofJiangxi Ruanyun and become the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun for accounting purposes through such ContractualArrangements,which are less effective than direct ownership.Our power to direct the activities of Jiangxi Ruanyun and our positionof being the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun for accounting purposes are limited to the conditions that we met forconsolidation of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP.Such conditions include that(i)we have the power to direct the activities thatcould most significantly affect the economic performance of Jiangxi Ruanyun,and(ii)we are entitled to receive benefits andobligated to absorb losses from Jiangxi Ruanyun that could potentially be significant to Jiangxi Ruanyun.Accordingly,weconsolidate the accounts of Jiangxi Ruanyun for the periods presented herein,in accordance with Regulation S-X-3A-02promulgated by the SEC,and ASC Topic 810-10,Consolidation:Overall.Only if we meet the aforementioned conditions to be theprimary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP,we will consolidate Jianxi Ruanyun and Jiangxi Ruanyun will be treatedas our consolidated affiliated entities for accounting purposes.We believe the Contractual Arrangements are in compliance with thecurrent PRC laws and are legally enforceable.However,uncertainties in the interpretation and enforcement of the PRC laws,regulations and policies could affect the validity of the Contractual Arrangements or limit our ability to enforce the ContractualArrangements.Furthermore,the Contractual Arrangements have not been tested in a court of law.As a result,we may be unable toconsolidate the VIE and its subsidiaries in the consolidated financial statements.Our position of being the primary beneficiary of theVIE and its subsidiaries also depends on the authorization by the shareholders of the VIE to exercise voting rights on all mattersrequiring shareholders approval in the VIE.As of the date of this prospectus,we believe that the agreements on the authorization toexercise shareholders voting power are valid and legally enforceable.See“Risk Factors-Risks Related to our Corporate Structure”for further information.52023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm23/284 Reorganization On March 11,2021,Ruanyun was incorporated with limited liability under the laws of the Cayman Islands.On December 24,2020,Soft Cloud Technology Limited,or Soft Cloud,was established in accordance with the law and regulations of Hong Kong andsubsequently became the wholly owned subsidiary of Ruanyun.Soft Cloud is a holding company and holds all the equity interests ofRollingthunder Technology(Jiangxi)Co.,Ltd,or WFOE,which was established in the PRC on January 19,2021.Jiangxi RuanyunTechnology Co.,Ltd.,or Jiangxi Ruanyun,or the VIE,was established on March 27,2012 under the laws of the PRC.The mainoperation of Jiangxi Ruanyun includes a focus on A.I.database and testing center development.Jiangxi Ruanyun formed thefollowing subsidiaries subsequent to its establishment:Jiangxi Ruanyun Technology Co.,Ltd.(Shenzhen Branch),or Shenzhen Ruanyun,a company incorporated on March 27,2017 in the PRC.It is a branch office of Jiangxi Ruanyun and mainly operating an A.I.database.Jiangxi Alphabet Technology Co.,Ltd.,or Jiangxi Alphabet,a company incorporated on February 21,2017 in the PRC.Itis a 70%subsidiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun and mainly operates in paperless testing center development.Jiangxi Jiaotou Technology Co.,Ltd.,or Jiangxi Jiaotuo,a company incorporated on December 31,2020 in the PRC.Jiangxi Ruanyun has 65%equity interest in Jiangxi Jiaotuo,which mainly operates in personalized homework bookdevelopment.Jiangxi Huizuoye Technology Co.,Ltd.,or Jiangxi Huizuoye,a company incorporated on April 8,2021 in the PRC.Jiangxi Ruanyun has 51%equity interest in Jiangxi Huizuoye,which mainly operates in electronic publications.On April 8,2021,WFOE entered into a series of contractual arrangements with Jiangxi Ruanyun and its shareholders,whichallow Ruanyun to have controlling financial interest in Jiangxi Ruanyun,or the VIE.Subject to the conditions that we have satisfiedfor consolidation of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP.Such conditions include that(i)we have the power to direct the activitiesthat could most significantly affect the economic performance of Jiangxi Ruanyun,and(ii)we are entitled to receive benefits andobligated to absorb losses from Jiangxi Ruanyun that could potentially be significant to Jiangxi Ruanyun.Under the United Statesgenerally accepted accounting principle,or US GAAP,Ruanyun was deemed to be the primary beneficiary of the VIE for accountingpurposes and must consolidate the VIE.These Contractual Arrangements include an Exclusive Equity Interest Purchase Agreement,an Equity Interest Pledge Agreement,Powers of Attorney,an Exclusive Technical Consulting and Service Agreement andSupplementary Agreements to the Exclusive Technical Consulting and Service Agreement.Ruanyun together with its wholly-ownedsubsidiary Soft Cloud,and its subsidiary,WFOE and the VIE and its subsidiaries were effectively controlled by the sameshareholders before and after the reorganization.The consolidated financial statements are prepared on the basis as if thereorganization became effective as of the beginning of the first period presented in the accompanying consolidated financialstatements of the Company.The charts below summarize our corporate legal structure and identify our subsidiaries,the VIE and its subsidiaries as of thedate of this prospectus and upon closing of this offering:2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm24/284 Name Background OwnershipSoft Cloud Technology Limited A Hong Kong company formed onDecember 24,2020 100%owned by Ruanyun EdaiTechnology Inc.Rollingthunder Technology(Jiangxi)Co.,Ltd A PRC company formed on January 19,2021 100%owned by Soft Cloud TechnologyLimitedJiangxi Ruanyun Technology Co.,Ltd.A PRC company formed on March 27,2012 VIE of Rollingthunder Technology(Jiangxi)Co.,LtdJiangxi Ruanyun Technology Co.,Ltd.(Shenzhen Branch)A PRC company formed on March 27,2017 100%owned by Jiangxi RuanyunTechnology Co.,Ltd.Jiangxi Alphabet Technology Co.,Ltd.A PRC company formed on February21,2017 70%owned by Jiangxi RuanyunTechnology Co.,Ltd.Jiangxi Jiaotou Technology Co.,Ltd.A PRC company formed on December31,2020 65%owned by Jiangxi RuanyunTechnology Co.,Ltd.Jiangxi Huizuoye Technology Co.,Ltd.A PRC company formed on April 8,2021 51%owned by Jiangxi RuanyunTechnology Co.,Ltd.Share Consolidation On October 17,2022,Ruanyun,with the approval of its board of directors and shareholders,effected a 1-for-2 share consolidation ofall of its issued and unissued ordinary shares,or the share consolidation,whereby each two ordinary shares of par value of$0.0001each were consolidated into one ordinary share of par value of$0.0002 each,following which the share capital of Ruanyun was$1,000,000 divided into 5,000,000,000 shares with a par value of$0.0002 each.Any and all fractional shares were rounded up to thenearest whole share.As of the date of this prospectus,30,000,004 ordinary shares of Ruanyun are issued and outstanding.Unlessotherwise stated in this prospectus,we have retroactively restated all share and per share data for all of the periods presented in thisprospectus to reflect the share consolidation.Contractual Arrangements In order to comply with the PRC laws and regulations which prohibit or restrict foreign control of companies involved inprovision of value-added telecommunication services and other restricted businesses,we operate substantially all of our businessthrough certain PRC domestic companies.As such,Jiangxi Ruanyun is controlled through the Contractual Arrangements,in lieu ofany direct or indirect equity ownership by Ruanyun or any of its subsidiaries,which were signed on April 8,2021.62023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm25/284 Despite the lack of equity ownership,Ruanyun controls the VIEs financial interest through the Contractual Arrangements.Theequity interests of the VIE are legally held by PRC individuals,or the Nominee Shareholders.The Nominee Shareholders whoindividually hold more than 5%equity interests of the VIE,including Fu Yan,Zhao Cong,Li Baihua,Wang Bin,and ShanghaiYuyuan Asset Management Partnership(Limited Partnership),collectively own 71.78%of the VIE.Through the ContractualArrangements,the Nominee Shareholders effectively assign all their voting rights underlying their equity interests in the VIE toRuanyun,and therefore,Ruanyun has the power to direct the activities of the VIE that most significantly impact economicperformance.Ruanyun also has the right to receive economic benefits and the obligation to absorb losses from the VIE thatpotentially could be significant to the VIE.Based on the above,Ruanyun consolidates the accounts of the VIE in accordance withRegulation S-X-3A-02 promulgated by the SEC and Accounting Standards Codification,or ASC,Topic 810-10,Consolidation:Overall.The significant terms of the Contractual Arrangements are as follows:Exclusive Equity Interest Purchase Agreement Pursuant to the Exclusive Equity Interest Purchase Agreement entered into amongst Jiangxi Ruanyun,the NomineeShareholders and the WFOE,the Nominee Shareholders granted the WFOE or its designated party,an irrevocable and exclusiveright to purchase all or part of the equity interests held by the Nominee Shareholders in Jiangxi Ruanyun at its sole discretion,to theextent permitted under the PRC laws,at an amount equal to the minimum consideration permitted under the applicable PRC law andadministrative regulations.Any proceeds received by the Nominee Shareholders from the exercise of the options shall be remitted tothe WFOE to the extent permitted under PRC laws.In addition,Jiangxi Ruanyun and the Nominee Shareholders have agreed thatwithout prior written consent of the WFOE,they will not create any pledge or encumbrance on their equity interests in the VIE,ortransfer or otherwise dispose of their equity interests in Jiangxi Ruanyun.The term of the agreement is ten years and can be extendedby another ten years by the WFOE.Equity Interest Pledge Agreement Pursuant to the Equity Interest Pledge Agreement entered into amongst the WFOE and the Nominee Shareholders,the NomineeShareholders pledged all of their equity interests in Jiangxi Ruanyun to the WFOE as collateral to secure their obligations.If theNominee Shareholders breach their respective contractual obligations under the share pledge agreement,the WFOE,as pledgee,willbe entitled to rights,including the right to dispose the pledged equity interests entirely or partially.The Nominee Shareholdersagreed not to transfer or otherwise create any encumbrance on their equity interests in Jiangxi Ruanyun without prior consent of theWFOE.The Equity Interest Pledge Agreement will remain effective until all the obligations have been satisfied in full.Ruanyun hascompleted the registration of the pledge of equity interests in the VIE with the relevant office of Administration for MarketRegulation in accordance with the PRC Property Rights Law.Powers of Attorney Pursuant to the Powers of Attorney entered into by the Nominee Shareholders,each Nominee Shareholder appointed the WFOEto act on behalf of the Nominee Shareholder as exclusive agent and attorney with respect to all matters concerning the shareholdingincluding,but not limited to,(1)calling and attending shareholders meetings of Jiangxi Ruanyun;(2)exercising all theshareholders rights,including voting rights;and(3)appointing at its sole discretion a substitute or substitutes to perform any or allof its rights.The powers of attorney remain irrevocable and continuously valid from the date of execution so long as each NomineeShareholder remains a shareholder of Jiangxi Ruanyun unless the WFOE issues adverse instructions in writing.Exclusive Technical Consulting and Service Agreement Pursuant to the Exclusive Technical Consulting and Service Agreement entered between the WFOE and Jiangxi Ruanyun,theWFOE or its designated entities affiliated with it has the exclusive right to provide Jiangxi Ruanyun with technical support andbusiness support services in return for fees equal to 100%of the consolidated net profits of Jiangxi Ruanyun.The WFOE has solediscretion in determining the service fee charged under this agreement.Without the WFOEs prior written consent,Jiangxi Ruanyunshall not,directly or indirectly,obtain the same or similar services as provided under this agreement from any third party,or enterinto any similar agreement with any third party.The WFOE will have the exclusive ownership of all intellectual property rightsdeveloped by performance of this agreement.This agreement will remain effective until it is terminated at the discretion of theWFOE or upon the transfer of all the shares of Jiangxi Ruanyun to the WFOE and/or a third party designated by the WFOE.On April 2,2022,Jiangxi Ruanyun and the WFOE signed the Supplementary Agreement to the Exclusive Technical Consultingand Service Agreement,or the Supplementary Agreement.Pursuant to the Supplementary Agreement,consulting fees can be 100%of Jiangxi Ruanyuns annual profits,and Jiangxi Ruanyun shall provide the WFOE with a report in relation to such consulting feeswithin three business days after each year in accordance with the Supplementary Agreement.2023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm26/284On October 18,2022,Jiangxi Ruanyun and the WFOE signed an additional Supplementary Agreement to the ExclusiveTechnical Consulting and Service Agreement,or the Second Supplementary Agreement.Pursuant to the Second SupplementaryAgreement,the WFOE shall be obligated to provide financial support to Jiangxi Ruanyun to ensure it meets the cash flowrequirements in daily operation and/or offsets any losses incurred during its operation.72023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm27/284 Based on the foregoing Contractual Arrangements,we account for Jiangxi Ruanyun as a VIE.We have the power to direct theactivities of Jiangxi Ruanyun and become the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun for accounting purposes through suchContractual Arrangements,which are less effective than direct ownership.Our power to direct the activities of Jiangxi Ruanyun andour position of being the primary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun for accounting purposes are limited to the conditions that we metfor consolidation of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP.Such conditions include that(i)we have the power to direct the activitiesthat could most significantly affect the economic performance of Jiangxi Ruanyun,and(ii)we are entitled to receive benefits andobligated to absorb losses from Jiangxi Ruanyun that could potentially be significant to Jiangxi Ruanyun.Accordingly,weconsolidate the accounts of Jiangxi Ruanyun for the periods presented herein,in accordance with Regulation S-X-3A-02promulgated by the SEC,and ASC Topic 810-10,Consolidation:Overall.Only if we meet the aforementioned conditions to be theprimary beneficiary of Jiangxi Ruanyun under U.S.GAAP,we will consolidate Jianxi Ruanyun and Jiangxi Ruanyun will be treatedas our consolidated affiliated entities for accounting purposes.We do not hold any equity interests in the VIE,we control the VIE through the Contractual Arrangements,the ContractualArrangement may not be effective in providing control over the VIE,and which may involve inherent risks and uncertaintiesincluding but not limited to:i)the uncertainty of the interpretation and the application of the PRC laws and regulations or any futureactions of the PRC government in this regard that could disallow the VIE structure,which may cause the Contractual Arrangementsto be invalid and unenforceable,and as a result,we may not be able to consolidate the VIE nor be entitled to treat the VIEs assets,revenue and results of operations as our assets,which would likely result in a material change in our operations and the value of ourordinary shares may depreciate significantly or become worthless;ii)there are uncertainties regarding the status of the rights ofRuanyun with respect to its Contractual Arrangements amongst Jiangxi Ruanyun,the Nominee Shareholders and the WFOE.Wemay face difficulties in enforcing the Contractual Arrangements due to legal uncertainties and jurisdictional limits,as all of ourContractual Arrangements are governed by the PRC laws and any disputes arising from the Contractual Arrangements will be solvedthrough arbitration in the PRC,the relevant PRC authorities and PRC courts may have broad discretion in dealing with the validityand enforceability of the Contractual Arrangements and the disputes thereunder,requiring us to restructure our current ownershipstructure or operations,imposing conditions or requirements that we or the VIE may not be able to comply,imposing fines orpenalties on us or the VIE,which may severely affect our business operations and financial conditions,and may significantly impairthe rights of the holders of our ordinary shares;iii)If we had equity interests in the VIE,we would be able to exercise our rights as ashareholder to effect changes in the board of directors of the VIE,which in turn could implement changes,subject to any applicablefiduciary obligations,at the management and operational level,however,we rely on the performance of the VIE and its shareholdersto fulfill their obligations under the Contractual Arrangements for us to exert control over and act as the primary beneficiary of theVIE;although Jiangxi Ruanyun does not have termination rights pursuant to the Contractual Arrangements,it could terminate,orrefuse to perform its obligations under,the Contractual Arrangements,and the shareholders of the VIE may not act in the bestinterests of our Company and may also refuse to perform their obligations under the Contractual Arrangements,which would resultin the distractions of our management team and incur substantial cost for us to seek for any possible legal remedies to enforce theContractual Arrangements,and our business operations,financial conditions and future prospects may be materially and adverselyaffected,and the value of your ordinary shares may significantly decline or become worthless.See“Risk Factors-We conduct our business through Jiangxi Ruanyun by means of Contractual Arrangements.If the PRC courtsor administrative authorities determine that these contractual arrangements do not comply with applicable laws and regulations,wecould be subject to severe penalties and our business could be adversely affected.In addition,changes in such PRC laws andregulations may materially and adversely affect our business.”Furthermore,we have been advised by our PRC counsel,Jingtian&Gongcheng,based on their understanding of the current PRClaws,rules and regulations,that(i)the structure for operating our business in China(including our corporate structure andContractual Arrangements between the WFOE,Jiangxi Ruanyun and its shareholders)will not result in any violation of PRC laws orregulations currently in effect;and(ii)the Contractual Arrangements among the WFOE and Jiangxi Ruanyun and its shareholdersgoverned by PRC law are valid,binding and enforceable,and will not result in any violation of PRC laws or regulations currently ineffect.However,the Contractual Arrangements may be determined by PRC authorities to be inconsistent with the laws andregulations of the PRC,including those related to foreign investment in certain industries.If any of the VIE and its subsidiaries ortheir ownership structure or the Contractual Arrangements are determined to be in violation of any existing or future PRC laws,rulesor regulations,or any of our PRC subsidiary and the VIE and its subsidiaries fail to obtain or maintain any of the requiredgovernmental permits or approvals,the relevant PRC regulatory authorities would have broad discretion in dealing with suchviolations,including:82023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm28/284 revoking the business and operating licenses;discontinuing or restricting the operations;imposing conditions or requirements with which we or the VIE and its subsidiaries may not be able to comply;requiring us and the VIE and its subsidiaries to restructure the relevant ownership structure or operations,includingtermination of the Contractual Arrangements with the VIE and deregistering the equity pledge of the VIE,which inturn would affect our ability to consolidate,derive economic interests from,or exert financial control over the VIE;restricting or prohibiting our use of the proceeds from this offering to finance our business and operations in China,and taking other regulatory or enforcement actions that could be harmful to our business;or imposing fines or confiscating the income from the VIE and its subsidiaries.The imposition of any penalties would severely disrupt our ability to conduct business and have a material adverse effect on ourfinancial condition,results of operations and prospects,and the value of your Class A ordinary shares may depreciate significantly orbecome worthless.See“Risk Factors-We conduct our business through Jiangxi Ruanyun by means of Contractual Arrangements.Ifthe PRC courts or administrative authorities determine that these contractual arrangements do not comply with applicable laws andregulations,we could be subject to severe penalties and our business could be adversely affected.In addition,changes in such PRClaws and regulations may materially and adversely affect our business.”How Cash Is Transferred Through our Organization Under the Contractual Arrangements,cash is transferred among the Company,Soft Cloud,our WFOE,and the VIE,in thefollowing manners:(i)dividends or other distributions may be paid by Rollingthunder Jiangxi,or our WFOE,to the Companythrough Soft Cloud Technology Limited,or Soft Cloud;(ii)Ruanyun Edai Technology Inc.,or Ruanyun(the Cayman Islandsholding company)transfers proceeds raised through this offering or any other offering we conduct at this level to our wholly ownedsubsidiary,Soft Cloud Technology Limited,or Soft Cloud,which in turn transfers such proceeds down to its wholly ownedsubsidiary Rollingthunder Jiangxi,or the WFOE,in the form of capital contributions or shareholder loans,as the case may be,whichin turn transfers such proceeds in the form of loans to the VIE pursuant to the Contractual Arrangements for the purpose ofconducting business operations;and(iii)funds may be paid by Jiangxi Ruanyun,to our WFOE,as service fees according to theContractual Arrangements.As of the date of this prospectus,there were no cash flows among the Company,Soft Cloud,Rollingthunder Jiangxi,or ourWFOE,and Jiangxi Ruanyun,or the VIE.As of the date of this prospectus,no dividends or distributions have been made to therespective shareholders of such entities.For the foreseeable future,the VIE intends to keep any future earnings to re-invest in and finance the expansion of our business.As a result,we do not expect to pay any cash dividends in the near future.We currently do not maintain any cash management policies that dictate the purpose,amount and procedure of cash transfersamong the Company,Soft Cloud,our WFOE,the VIE,or investors.Rather,the funds can be transferred in accordance withapplicable PRC laws and regulations.For more details,see“Regulations-Regulations Relating to Foreign Exchange Registration ofOverseas Investment by PRC Residents.”92023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm29/284 Compliance issues regarding the transfer of foreign exchange between Chinas overseas and ChinaThere are no foreign exchange controls or foreign exchange regulations under the currently applicable laws of the CaymanIslands and Hong Kong restricting the Companys ability to transfer cash between entities,across borders and to U.S.investors.The PRC government imposes controls on the convertibility of the Renminbi into foreign currencies and,in certain cases,theremittance of currency out of China.In the fourth quarter of 2016,the Peoples Bank of China and the State Administration ofForeign Exchange,or SAFE,have implemented a series of capital control measures in the subsequent months,including strictervetting procedures for China-based companies to remit foreign currency for overseas acquisitions,dividend payments andshareholder loan repayments.The PRC government may continue to strengthen its capital controls and the VIE dividends and otherdistributions may be subject to tightened scrutiny in the future.The PRC government also imposes controls on the conversion ofRMB into foreign currencies and the remittance of currencies out of the PRC.Therefore,we may experience difficulties incompleting the administrative procedures necessary to obtain and remit foreign currency for the payment of dividends from ourprofits.Furthermore,if our subsidiary in the PRC incurs debt on its own in the future,the instruments governing the debt mayrestrict its ability to pay dividends or make other payments.See“Regulations-Regulations Relating to Foreign ExchangeRegistration of Overseas Investment by PRC Residents”for more information.Under our current corporate structure,to fund any cash and financing requirements we may have,the Company may rely onpayments from the VIE under the Contractual Arrangements,and the distribution of dividends to Soft Cloud from WFOE,Rollingthunder Technology(Jiangxi)Co.,Ltd.Certain payments from the VIE to WFOE are subject to PRC taxes,including VAT.According to the Contractual Arrangements,WFOE is entitled to 100%of the VIEs yearly profit by providing exclusive technicalconsulting services to the VIE.The VIE shall pay the corresponding amount according to the agreement for a period of 10 yearsfrom April 8,2021.Current PRC regulations permit our PRC subsidiary to pay dividends to its shareholders only out of itsaccumulated profits,if any,determined in accordance with Chinese accounting standards and regulations.Therefore,WFOE candistribute the income obtained under the Contractual Arrangements to Soft Cloud in the form of dividends,with Soft Cloud in turndistributing such revenues to Ruanyun in the form of dividends.The Cayman Companies Act(as amended)(the Companies Act)permits dividend distributions,subject to the provisions of theCompanys amended and restated memorandum and articles of association,the payment of distributions or dividends to membersmay be made out of the share premium account provided that the Company is able to pay its debts as they fall due in the ordinarycourse of business immediately following the date on which the distribution or dividend is proposed to be paid.With the exceptionof the foregoing,there are no statutory provisions relating to the payment of dividends or distributions.Based upon English case law,which is regarded as persuasive in the Cayman Islands,dividends may be paid only out of profits.The distributions or dividends ofthe Company could be distributed to all shareholders respectively in proportion to the shares they held,regardless whether theshareholders are U.S.investors or investors in other countries or regions.Tax liability of VIEs profit distribution to overseas(non-China)companies Income of the WFOE comes from the exclusive technical consulting service fee paid by the VIE.According to the“VAT Law ofthe Peoples Republic of China”,the WFOE shall pay 6%value-added tax of this income.Current PRC regulations permit our PRC subsidiary to pay dividends to the Company only out of its accumulated profits,if any,determined in accordance with Chinese accounting standards and regulations.For more information on the regulation of dividendpolicy and dividend tax,please refer to“Dividend Policy.”Also,according to the current effective laws in Cayman Islands,dividends from its companies are exempt from tax.However,in accordance with the laws and regulations of the United States,U.S.investors shall pay taxes and fees on dividendincome according to regulations after receiving the dividends paid in accordance with the law.Risks Associated with Our Business Our business is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties,including risks that may prevent us from achieving our businessobjectives or may adversely affect our business,financial condition,results of operations,cash flows and prospects that you shouldconsider before making a decision to invest in our ordinary shares.These risks are discussed more fully in“Risk Factors”beginningon page 22.These risks include,but are not limited to,the following:102023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm30/284 We face risks related to natural disasters,health epidemics and other outbreaks,specifically the coronavirus,which couldsignificantly disrupt our operations.We have a limited operating history.There is no assurance that our future operations will result in profitable revenues.Ifwe cannot generate sufficient revenues to operate profitably,we may suspend or cease operations.We face competition which could lead to pricing pressure and loss of market share and materially and adversely affect ourbusiness,financial condition and results of operations.Our future growth depends in part on new products and new technology innovation,and failure to invent and innovatecould adversely impact our business prospects.Our directors,officers and principal shareholders have significant voting power and may take actions that may not be in thebest interests of our other shareholders.If we are not able to adequately protect our proprietary intellectual property and information,and protect against third partyclaims that we are infringing on their intellectual property rights,our results of operations could be adversely affected.If we fail to develop and apply our technologies to support and expand our product and service offerings or if we fail totimely respond to the rapid changes in industry trends and users preference,we may lose market share and our businessmay be materially and adversely affected.We may not be effective in broadening our monetization channels.We are subject to a variety of laws and other obligations regarding data protection,any failure to comply with applicablelaws and obligations could have a material adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations.The success and future growth of our business will be affected by the user acceptance and market trend of integration oftechnology and learning.We may not be able to improve or expand our product and service offerings in a timely and cost-effective manner.Risks Related to Our Corporate Structure We depend upon the Contractual Arrangements in conducting our business in China,which may not be effective inproviding operational control.We conduct our business through the VIE,or Jiangxi Ruanyun,and its subsidiaries,all of which are PRC entities,by meansof the Contractual Arrangements.If the PRC courts or administrative authorities determine that these contractualarrangements do not comply with applicable regulations,we could be subject to severe penalties and our business could beadversely affected.In addition,changes in such PRC laws and regulations may materially and adversely affect ourbusiness.If the PRC government determines that the Contractual Arrangements constituting part of the VIE structure donot comply with PRC laws and regulations,or if these laws and regulations change or are interpreted differently in thefuture,our shares may decline in value or become worthless if we are unable to assert our contractual control rights overthe assets of our PRC subsidiaries that conduct substantially all of our operations.112023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm31/284 Risks Related to Doing Business in China Uncertainties with respect to the PRC legal system could have a material adverse effect on us.The legal system inmainland China is a civil law system based on written statutes.Unlike the common law system,prior court decisions underthe civil law system may be cited for reference but have limited precedential value.Since the legal system in mainlandChina continues to rapidly evolve,and PRC administrative and court authorities have significant discretion in interpretingand implementing statutory and contractual terms,the legal system in mainland China,including risks and uncertaintiesregarding the enforcement of PRC laws and that PRC laws and regulations can change quickly with little advance notice,and the interpretations of many laws,regulations and rules are not always uniform and enforcement of these laws,regulations and rules involves uncertainties.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China Uncertaintieswith respect to Chinas legal system could adversely affect us”on page 27 of this prospectus.We operate in the education industry,which is subject to extensive regulations in China.See“Risk Factors Risks Relatedto Our Business and Industry Failure to adhere to the regulations that govern our business could result in our beingunable to effectively perform our services”on page 41 of this prospectus,and“Risk Factors Risks Related to OurBusiness and Industry If we are qualified as a tutoring institution under the Opinions on Further Reducing the Burden ofExcessive Homework and Off-Campus Tutoring for Students Undergoing Compulsory Education,or the Opinions,in thefuture,our business,financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected due to the great uncertaintiesabout how the policy will be implemented”on page 43 of this prospectus.The Chinese government may interfere in our operations at any time.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Businessin China-Substantially all of our operations are located in China.Our ability to operate in China may be impaired bychanges in Chinese laws and regulations,including those relating to taxation,environmental regulation,restrictions onforeign investment,and other matters”on page 25 of this prospectus.Trade issues in China and internationally may have a material adverse effect on our business.See“Risk Factors-RisksRelated to Doing Business in China Changes in international trade policies,trade disputes,barriers to trade,or theemergence of a trade war may dampen growth in China and may have a material adverse effect on our business”on page28 of this prospectus.The Companys auditor,Friedman LLP,is PCAOB registered and based in New York,New York.Under the HFCAA,thePCAOB is permitted to inspect the Companys independent public accounting firm.However,if the PCAOB laterdetermined that it cannot inspect or fully investigate our auditor,trading in our securities may be prohibited under theHFCAA,and,as a result,Nasdaq may determine to delist our securities.On June 22,2021,the U.S.Senate passed theAccelerating Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act,or the AHFCAA.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to DoingBusiness in China The recent joint statement by the SEC and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board,or thePCAOB,proposed rule changes submitted by Nasdaq,and the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act all call foradditional and more stringent criteria to be applied to emerging market companies upon assessing the qualification of theirauditors,especially non-U.S.auditors who are not inspected by the PCAOB.These developments could add uncertaintiesto our offering”on page 34 of this prospectus.The Chinese government may interfere in our operations at any time or may exert more control over offerings conductedoverseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers,which could result in a material change in our operations and/orthe value of our securities.Any actions by the Chinese government to exert more oversight and control over offerings thatare conducted overseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers could significantly limit or completely hinder ourability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantly decline orbe worthless.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Our Business and Industry We are subject to a variety of laws andother obligations regarding data protection,any failure to comply with applicable laws and obligations could have amaterial adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations”on page 42 of this prospectus.122023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm32/284 The transfer of funds and assets between Ruanyun,its Hong Kong subsidiary,WFOE and the VIE and its subsidiaries issubject to risks.To the extent the funds or assets of a PRC subsidiary are in the PRC,the funds or assets may not beavailable to fund operations or for other use outside of the PRC,due to the controls imposed by PRC governments whichmay limit our ability to transfer funds,pay dividends or make distribution to Ruanyun.Based on Hong Kong laws andregulations,as at the date of this prospectus,there is no restriction imposed by the Hong Kong government on the transferof capital within and out of Hong Kong(including funds from Hong Kong to the PRC),except transfer of funds involvingmoney laundering and criminal activities.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China Governmental control of currency conversion may limit our ability to utilize our net revenues effectively and affect thevalue of your investment.”on page 31 of this prospectus.PRC regulation of loans to and direct investment in PRC entities by offshore holding companies and governmental controlof currency conversion may delay us from using the proceeds of this offering to make loans or additional capitalcontributions to our PRC subsidiary,which could materially and adversely affect our liquidity and our ability to fund andexpand our business.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business in China PRC regulation of loans to anddirect investment in PRC entities by offshore holding companies and governmental control of currency conversion maydelay us from using the proceeds of this offering to make loans or additional capital contributions to our PRC subsidiary,which could materially and adversely affect our liquidity and our ability to fund and expand our business.”on page 29 ofthis prospectus.We may rely on dividends and other distributions on equity paid by our PRC subsidiary to fund any cash and financingrequirements we may have,and any limitation on the ability of our PRC subsidiary to make payments to us could have amaterial and adverse effect on our ability to conduct our business.See“Risk Factors Risks Related to Doing Business inChina We may rely on dividends and other distributions on equity paid by our PRC subsidiary to fund any cash andfinancing requirements we may have,and any limitation on the ability of our PRC subsidiary to make payments to us couldhave a material and adverse effect on our ability to conduct our business.”on page 29 of this prospectus.Risks Related to This Offering Changes in Chinas economic,political or social conditions or government policies could have a material adverse effect onour business and operations.The Chinese government may exert more control over offerings conducted overseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers,which could result in a material change in the value of our ordinary shares and could have a material adverseeffect on our results of operations.Any actions by the Chinese government to exert more oversight and control over offerings that are conducted overseasand/or foreign investment in China-based issuers could significantly limit or completely hinder our ability to offer orcontinue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or be worthless.If it isdetermined in the future that any approval from the CSRC,the CAC or other PRC regulatory agencies were required forthis offering,we cannot assure you that such approval could be obtained in a timely manner,or at all,which may subject usto sanctions imposed by these regulatory agencies.132023/2/9https:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htmhttps:/www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1873454/000173112222002203/e4313_f-1.htm33/284 As of the date of this prospectus,our directors,officers and principal shareholders holding 5%or more of our ordinary shares,collectively,control approximately 70.08%of our ordinary shares.After this offering,it is expected that our directors,officers andprincipal shareholders holding 5%or more of our ordinary shares,collectively,will hold a controlling interest in our ordinary sharesas they will hold approximately 60.05%of our outstanding ordinary shares.As a result,these shareholders,if they act together,willbe able to control our management and affairs and most matters requiring shareholder approval,including the election of directorsand approval of significant corporate transactions.Permissions Required from the PRC Authorities for the VIEs Operation and This Offering Jiangxi Ruanyun and Jiangxi Huizuoye are the only entities in our organization that are required to obtain permissions fromChinese authorities(other than business licenses as an incorporation permission for every company)to operate,and they currentlyhold all requisite permissions to operate.Jiangxi Ruanyun currently holds the Business License(No.91360106591844810W),the Qualification Certificate for Integrationof Classified Information Systems(No.JC242100324)issued by Secrecy Administration Bureau of Jiangxi Province on August 16,2021;PRC Publication Business License issued by Bureau of Press and Publication of Jiangxi Province on August 13,2020;High-Tech Enterprise Certificate issued by Science and Tech
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EY：去中心化能源是否足够好、足够快？ （英文版）（36页）.pdf
Can decentralized energy get good enough,fast enough?November 2022|60 edition Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness IndexRECAIStartContentsRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6002Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsForeword 03RECAI 60 04PPA Index05Renewables highlights from around the worldKey developments06Decentralized energy markets:the future of distributed energy and the implications for energy resilienceAnalysis12Promising markets punching above their weightRegional focus20Why the renewables sector must meet cybersecurity challenges head-onInsight24 RECAI 60 PPA Index Normalized indexData and methodology27Contacts33Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6003Ben Warren RECAI Chief editor EY Global Power&Utilities Corporate Finance LeaderForeword The transition to renewable energy has become even more urgent amid soaring gas prices,geopolitical tensions,supply chain shortages and extreme weather events.DERs and smart grids will be key to securing energy supplies and getting the world to net zero by 2050.Near-term policy interventions are helping reduce risks in the system,but more regulatory support is needed across the board.Cybersecurity will need to be prioritized as energy infrastructure incorporates greater levels of new technology that rely on connectivity to the Internet of Things.Some markets are spearheading the transition disproportionately to their actual size;our new ranking aims to underline which ones they are.Key takeawaysThe need for energy resilience has never been more urgent.Ramping up renewable generation,accelerating energy diversification and increasing energy storage are global priorities amid heightened geopolitical tensions,supply chain shortages,an increase in extreme weather events and soaring natural gas prices.The collective need for resilience comes with another testing proposition:how to accelerate the integration of increasing amounts of renewable energy into grids.In this edition of RECAI,we focus on the key role distributed energy resources(DERs)and smart grids play in the energy transition.1Decentralization has been talked about for decades but,as markets seek to rapidly integrate more renewables and improve grid flexibility,it is encouraging that now,with stronger regulatory support,we are beginning to see real progress.Governments are increasingly mandating smart-grid installation,while growing policy support notably,the European Commissions REPowerEU plan and the US Inflation Reduction Act will provide subsidies and tax credits for DERs.Signals are being sent that an ideal climate is emerging for investment in DERs.2There are good signs that such near-term energy policy intervention and acceleration of renewable energy sources will reduce some of the current risks in the system.Additionally,this should offer improved visibility over what a potential power price realization will be in the next few years and support continued growth,while potentially offsetting the implications of windfall taxes.For countries to reach net zero,however,the integration of renewables must improve significantly.DERs have a vital role to play in allowing a range of green energy sources to be integrated into the grid,but delivering new and more efficient approaches to permitting,connecting and managing energy flows are particularly urgent.Another pressing issue for the renewables industry is that of cybersecurity.Smart grid technologies,which help integrate,monitor,control and steer bidirectional flows of energy,significantly heighten the risk of cyber attacks.This edition of RECAI also explores how markets can strengthen their cybersecurity strategies in the face of such a rapidly expanding threat landscape.On the ranking side,there is an important new feature in this edition:a new index,alongside the RECAI ranking,that has been normalized with gross domestic product(GDP)to control for economic size.The resulting ranking showcases which markets are performing above expectations for their GDP,creating attractive alternatives for potential investors.Morocco(normalized RECAI ranking:1,RECAI ranking:19),for example,is making use of its topographical features to build flexibility into its power system,with wind expected to overtake solar in the coming decade and pumped storage hydropower being developed in its mountainous areas.Green hydrogen,meanwhile,is seen as a key aspect of decarbonization in Chile(normalized RECAI ranking:5,RECAI ranking:17),which hopes to become a top exporter of the fuel,and Portugal(normalized RECAI ranking:8,RECAI ranking:25)is a good example of the importance of government commitment to renewables.Policy support for renewable energy sources is gathering momentum across the globe,and this is helping to reduce risk and expand opportunities.With a more energy-resilient future on the horizon,now is the time to seize the power of a more flexible energy system.Can the renewables sector seize the power of decentralization to secure a resilient future?Arnaud de Giovanni EY Global Renewables LeaderForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsForeword MethodologySee page 29 for RECAI methodology.TurkeyThe renewable energy market is struggling from the devaluation of the domestic currency.The markets feed-in tarrif scheme,which started in 2021,is denominated in Turkish lira,so has lost competitiveness for investors against other global schemes.-5Greece Greece awarded 538MW of capacity in its most recent renewables tender. 5IndonesiaIndonesia has issued regulations,including fiscal incentives,to encourage renewable energy investment,and has plans to retire 15GW of coal-powered generation.The high capital cost of decarbonization efforts will be supported by donor countries,including the US and Japan.ItalyThe government released a draft FER II Decree setting out new price support mechanisms,and announced 5GW of offshore wind power auctions to take place between 2023 and 2026.This follows the completion of its first utility-scale offshore wind farm. 4 3China MainlandChina Mainland is set to install a record 156GW of wind and solar capacity by the end of 2022,a 25%uplift on its previously record-breaking 2021 installations.0Kazakhstan Set to launch 40 renewable energy projects by 2025 as part of its ambitious decarbonization targets,Kazakhstan has amended its renewable energy auction prices to protect investors from currency devaluation against the US dollar. 1Spain When launching a 3.3GW renewable tender in November 2022,a budget of around 3B(US$2.99b)will be used to award up to 1.8GW of solar PV and 1.5GW of onshore wind.PV generation in the first five months of 2022 was 40%higher than in the same period of 2021. 1UKThe fourth round of the Contracts for Difference scheme has allocated 11GW of new renewable capacity at record low prices.In efforts to limit consumer energy bills and decouple renewables pricing from the gas market,the government has considered introducing a voluntary CfD for operational renewables projects.VietnamVietnam is attracting insufficient international finance to meet capacity targets due to factors such as difficult permitting procedures,price uncertainly and unbankable power purchase agreements(PPAs).RECAI 60Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6004IndexSince 2003,the biannual RECAI has ranked the worlds top 40 markets on the attractiveness of their renewable energy investment and deployment opportunities.The rankings reflect our assessments of market attractiveness and global market trends.134567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829313233373839404036353430238433935303634323733252631282723292224181720191421161312151110897653421BrazilAveraging 1GW of new solar PV per month,Brazil now has 19GW of solar installed.Federal lawmakers are considering a draft bill to fill the regulatory gaps that investors believe have slowed the considerable renewables potential.-1-6-1Increased attractiveness compared with previous indexDecreased attractiveness compared with previous indexNo change in attractiveness since previous indexCurrent ranking shown in circles with previous ranking noted at the bottom of each segmentThailandIndonesiaJordanSouth AfricaVietnamKazakhstanNorwayMexicoAustriaSwitzerlandTurkeyEgyptTaiwanPhilippinesArgentinaPortugalBelgiumFinlandSouth KoreaIsraelSwedenMoroccoPolandChileGreeceCanadaBrazilIrelandItalyDenmarkNetherlandsJapanSpainIndiaAustraliaFranceUKGermanyChina MainlandUSForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsRECAI 60PPA IndexRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6005Record high power prices and extreme market volatility are set to drive the first year-on-year reduction in corporate power purchase agreements(PPAs)signed since 2013GermanyThe market is seeing a distinct increase in PPAs for operational and repowered post-EEG subsidy assets.The current high price environment is allowing larger PPA revenues to compensate for maintenance or repowering costs accrued by the generator.IndiaPrevious struggles in the PPA market have taken a positive turn with the Green Access Rules,issued in July,aiming to provide long-term clarity with respect to open access costs and relaxing the eligibility limit to allow a greater range of offtakers to access the market.It also allows greater offtaker flexibility with respect to purchasing and consuming energy.JapanThe market has phased out full feed-in tariffs in favor of a feed-in premium that is sensitive to market price fluctuations,creating a consumption gap to be filled by PPAs.Following the first Japanese corporate PPA between Amazon and Mitsubishi in 2021,there has been steady growth in the market,with a number of corporates including Seven-Eleven and NTT entering into an array of off-site and on-site offtake arrangements.South AfricaThe first large-scale corporate virtual PPA in South Africa was signed recently between SOLA Group and mining and processing company Tronoz for a 200MW solar project.Other large industrial players in the market,including Sasol and Air Liquide,are in the process of procuring PPAs,reflecting the momentum building in the space.1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829301324561014978111315121716262018211922282523242729Following an extended period of exponential growth,the volume of power generation committed through PPAs in 2022 is set to be less than 2021,although expected to be greater than 2020.The market has shifted in favor of sellers,with high demand from corporates seeking to use PPAs as a long-term hedge against fluctuations in the wholesale power markets.However,uncertainty around government policy and rapidly changing cost profiles have left developers struggling to reach agreements on commercial terms.PPAs are becoming increasingly viewed as a valuable financial tool and a strong green credential by companies that have already gained RE100 status.The large gap between low long-term PPA prices and high short-term market prices gives corporates an early financial benefit,and developers a long-term monetary boost and flexibility when compared with a state subsidy in many markets.While current market conditions have been a stumbling block for the execution of PPAs,the fundamentals remain strong for further global market expansion.MethodologySee page 31 for PPA methodology.Increased attractiveness compared with previous indexDecreased attractiveness compared with previous indexNo change in attractiveness since previous indexCurrent ranking shown in circles with previous ranking noted at the bottom of each segmentNew entryColombiaMoroccoSpainGermanyUSUKAustraliaFranceDenmarkIndiaNetherlandsSwedenFinlandItalyBrazilNorwayPolandPortugalChileEgyptSouth AfricaBelgiumIrelandJapanEthiopiaThailandGreeceRomaniaLithuaniaBulgariaForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsPPA IndexRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6006Here,we look at key developments within 10 global markets from the biggest change to German energy policy since 2017 to new US legislation that could be a game changer for its green hydrogen industry.Renewables highlights from around the worldGovernments around the world are accelerating their renewables programs to help reduce their reliance on imported energy,as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty continue to make this a volatile and unpredictable time.Key developmentsRECAI ranking3Up 14Down 1RECAI rankingRECAI ranking6No changeRECAI ranking7No changeRECAI ranking11No changeRECAI ranking14Down 1RECAI ranking16Up 5RECAI ranking19Up 1RECAI ranking1No changeRECAI ranking2No changeForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsKey developmentsThe Inflation Reduction Act,passed in August 2022,is being viewed as a game changer for the US green hydrogen industry.Tax credits of up to US$3/kg for 10 years will make green hydrogen produced in the US the cheapest form of hydrogen in the world.Green hydrogen is currently being produced in the US Northwest at US$3.73/kg,so a US$3/kg tax credit would bring the cost of production for a developer to US$0.73/kg,cheaper than blue and gray hydrogen.3Reaching this price would also make green steel cost competitive with steel made from fossil fuels,which would stimulate demand for green steel,and could spark demand for green cement and green glass made with green hydrogen.The landmark Act,which includes US$369b in spending and green energy-related tax credits,will also be a major boon for the markets solar sector.4 With a target to reach 50GW of domestic manufacturing capacity by 2030,the Acts tax credits,grants,low-cost loans and other support will play a key role in developing a full domestic solar supply chain.Last year,the US installed 23.6GW of solar capacity,a 19%increase versus 2020.5The US:Green hydrogen set for breakthrough after passing of Inflation Reduction ActRECAI ranking1No changeThe China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute,a leading think tank,has projected that the market will install a record 156GW of wind and solar power this year,up 25%from 2021,which was also a record year.The forecast predicts that 100GW of solar,50GW of onshore wind and 6GW of offshore wind will be added.In the first five months of 2022,China added 35GW of wind and solar,but installations are expected to accelerate toward the end of the year as developers and local governments push to meet annual targets.6Despite challenges to global energy security,China remains committed to accelerating its renewable energy transition,and seeks to bring emissions to a peak by 2030.Its National Energy Administration says the market remains on target to increase the portion of nonfossil fuel energy in overall consumption by an average of one percentage point per year from 2022 to 2030.Last year,wind,solar,nuclear and hydropower supplied 16.6%of Chinas energy needs,an increase from 15.9%in 2020.7As part of Chinas five-year plan for the renewable energy industry,it is aiming to generate one-third of its electricity from green sources by 2025.The market has also vowed to increase total wind and solar capacity to 1,200GW,nearly double the current rate,and is aiming to start cutting coal use from 2026.8China:Record year expected for wind and solar RECAI ranking2No changeRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6007Key developmentsForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsKey developmentsThe UK lost its top ranking for installed offshore wind capacity this year to China,but does boast the largest pipeline.12Offshore wind featured prominently in the governments Made in Britain energy strategy,which set an ambitious target of 50GW by 2030,a significant increase from its current capacity of 12GW.New planning reforms are expected to slash approval times from four years to one.Floating wind will also be accelerated,with a target of 5GW.13Interest in the sector was on full display early this year when Crown Estate Scotland awarded option agreements to 11 floating wind projects with 15GW capacity.14Meanwhile,the UKs fourth allocation round of its Contracts for Difference scheme saw many successful offshore wind projects,including rsteds 2.85GW Hornsea Three project,Red Rock and ESBs Inch Cape 1.8GW phase 1,and Scottish Powers East Anglia THREE 1.37GW phase 1.The strike price for offshore wind was the lowest of all technologies,at 37.35/MWh(US$42.04/MWh),which marks an almost 70%drop from the price in the first allocation round in 2015.A total of 93 green energy projects were given the go-ahead in the scheme,aiming to deliver nearly 11GW of renewable energy that will come online in 2023 and 2024.15Investment flows have also been strong,with the UK Infrastructure Bank announcing a 22b(US$24.9b)investment plan in June.Renewable energy will be its largest investment sector,with funding earmarked for low-carbon hydrogen,energy storage and grid networks.16 In July,the UK government also unveiled two hydrogen investment strategies the Hydrogen Business Model and the Net Zero Hydrogen Fund that will offer subsidy options and grant funding.17The UK:Offshore wind gets boost from Made in Britain and Contracts for Difference4Down 1RECAI rankingRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6008Key developmentsGermany:Historic renewable energy package approvedSeeking to reform energy legislation to achieve climate neutrality and wean itself off Russian gas,the German government has approved the Easter Package,representing the greatest change to the markets energy policy since the introduction of competitive auctions in 2017.It has set targets to raise the share of renewables in the power mix to 80%by 2030 and to nearly 100%by 2035.Last year,renewables comprised 42%.9More ambitious annual auction volumes and wind energy installation targets have now been set.Beginning in 2025,Germany will aim to add 10GW of new onshore wind capacity each year,a huge commitment considering it added just 1.9GW last year.New offshore wind targets have also been set 30GW by 2030,40GW by 2035 and 70GW by 2045 and permitting procedures shortened.Meanwhile,annual auction volumes for onshore wind will be raised to 12GW annually,which would put Germany on a path to 115GW of onshore wind capacity by 2030.Solar power is expected to soar too,with a target set to reach 215GW of capacity by 2030,up from 59GW at the end of last year.This will require solar expansion to rise 22GW per year on average,up from 5.3GW last year.10The expansion of renewables will be met with the addition of 36 new grid expansion and optimization projects.Renewable energies will also be classified as an“overriding matter of public interest and public security”in Germanys constitution.This will accelerate approval of new projects and cut delays caused by legal appeals,particularly against wind power.11RECAI ranking3Up 1Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsKey developmentsAustralia:Eyeing renewable energy exports by 2030India:Offshore wind potential gets a boostAustralia is undergoing a major shift in energy policy following the Labor Partys election victory in May.After years of general noncommitment,the Australian government passed legislation in September for a 2030 target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 43low 2005 levels.18 It also announced it will cut tariffs and taxes on electric vehicles,and introduce subsidies,as well as building charge points every 150km along the national road network.Additionally,it will convert 75%of the governments car fleet to zero emissions and establish a hydrogen refueling network for heavy vehicles.19Australia now has its sights set on becoming a major exporter of renewable energy by 2030,through ramping up solar,onshore and offshore wind capacity,and generating export quantities of green hydrogen.The markets Offshore Electricity Infrastructure Act 2021,20 introduced in December 2021,has resulted in multiple offshore wind projects being proposed,with the federal government specifically identifying six regions that have world-class potential.21Meanwhile,the Illawarra Renewable Energy Zone in New South Wales,located about 100km south of Sydney,issued a call for registration of interest in developing large-scale projects.It has attracted AU$43b(US$28.7b)worth of potential investments,with 44 proposals received for onshore and offshore wind,solar,energy storage,pumped storage hydroelectricity,green hydrogen and green steel projects,with a potential capacity of 17GW.Wind power generated the most interest,with 10 projects proposed,accounting for AU$35b(US$23.4b)of investment and 12.9GW of potential capacity.22RECAI ranking6No changeRECAI ranking7No changeFacing sluggish wind power growth compared with solar,the Indian government has set its sights on accelerating offshore wind generation,with a target of reaching 30GW by 2030.It will put 4GW of capacity off the coast of Tamil Nadu,in the southeast of India,up for auction before the end of 2022.This will be the first of three years of 4GW of annual bidding invited for projects in this region,as well as Gujarat in the northwest.After this three-year process,a project capacity of 5GW will be bid out each year until 2030.The high costs facing early offshore wind projects,combined with the low cost of onshore wind and solar power,have held back the offshore wind sector in India.To give it a boost,transmission from an offshore substation to the onshore grid will be provided by the government free of charge for all wind projects bid on before fiscal year 202930.Additionally,the first 8GW of projects will qualify for benefits such as carbon credits.23 Onshore wind has also lagged behind solar generation.From 2014 to 2021,wind capacity in India nearly doubled to 38.5GW,far behind the breakneck growth of solar during the same period,which grew more than tenfold to 39.2GW.24 Given that the market boasts a 12GW manufacturing base in the wind power sector,several lawmakers have called for its acceleration to be prioritized.25Currently,Indias renewable energy generation capacity is 160GW,but it has an ambitious target of 500GW by 2030.26 Consequently,it is looking to new emerging technologies,such as green hydrogen,to help it reach its goal.The state government of Karnataka and Indian solar developer ACME Group have promised to spend INR520b(US$6.7b)on a plant that will produce 1.2 million tonnes of green hydrogen and green ammonia per year by 2027.27Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6009Key developmentsForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsKey developments2022 saw a record first six months for green energy in Denmark,with the share of renewables for power consumption rising to a new high of 53.3%,sparked by significant growth in wind and solar generation.Total production from green energy reached 10.9TWh,rising from 9.7TWh a year ago.28Despite the record growth,there could be difficult times ahead for the sector,with developers required to pay for grid connections from January 2023.Previously,they were only required to pay a small down payment when applying for a connection.Now,fees will range from 20,000 to 40,000(US$19,700 to US$39,500)per megawatt,with discounts for larger projects.29 A new land tax is also planned,which will favor larger projects too.Given that solar projects need more land than wind,this will pose additional obstacles for solar developers and could spark more hybrid schemes with wind power in the future.Denmark has ambitious plans to be a net exporter of green energy by 2030.It is seeking to increase total generation from solar and onshore wind fourfold by 2030,and will bring into force procedures to reduce administrative delays.The government is also aiming for tenders for an additional 1GW to 4GW of offshore wind before the end of 2030.30Denmark:Renewables soaring despite challenging conditions on the horizon Brazil has retained its position as the leading market in Latin America for investment in renewable energy sources in the RECAI rankings.However,a weak economy is slowing the pace of uptake of renewable energy sources and has resulted in low power demand.Brazils A-4 power tender in May saw a small tender size,with renewable energy supply contracts awarded for projects with a combined capacity of 947.9MW.Total investment is estimated at BRLR$7.9b(US$1.5b).For the first time,biomass surpassed wind and solar,with 407MW of capacity awarded.Hydropower was allocated 189.7MW,wind 183.1MW and solar 166.1MW.Biomass projects sold power at BRL314.93/MWh(US$60.9/MWh),hydro earned a price of BRL281.65/MWh(US$54.5/MWh),while wind and solar sold power at BRL178.84/MWh(US$34.6/MWh).The average sale price of BRL268.16/MWh(US$51.8/MWh)marks a 50%increase on last years auction.The biggest rise was for biomass projects,with the price up more than 60%.31 The higher prices were largely attributed to national and global inflation.For wind and solar,the contracts awarded mark a major drop from last year,when 581MW of new wind capacity and 518MW of solar were awarded.In Mays auction,solar and wind technologies were placed together for the first time,as the cost of solar power had dropped significantly to make power delivery costs comparable for the two.The new wind and solar projects are required to come online by the beginning of 2026,with the start of 15-year power purchase agreements.Brazil has also taken key steps forward in developing a green hydrogen economy.In August,it established a green hydrogen secretariat to accelerate growth.32 Meanwhile,the state government of Cear,in northeastern Brazil,has signed two memoranda of understanding(MoUs)for the development of a new green hydrogen hub at the Port of Pecm.In addition to the MoUs with Nexway and Energy Vault,the state government says it is preparing to sign MoUs with four other companies for the Pecm complex.33Ports in Cear are the closest to Europe within South America and,consequently,the green hydrogen hub will be structured around exports.Brazil:Biomass beats wind and solar in tendersRECAI ranking11No changeRECAI ranking14Down 1Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6010Key developmentsForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsKey developmentsMoroccos renewable energy supplies soared by almost 10%last year rising from 7.3TWh in 2020 to 7.9TWh in 2021 as two solar power plants and a wind farm came online.Renewables now account for more than 19%of the markets energy,up from 18.5%in 2020.39Installed renewable energy capacity surpassed 5GW,representing major growth over the past two decades given that capacity was at 1.2GW in 2000.40 The government is seeking to more than double capacity by 2030 to reach 12GW,which would make up more than half of Moroccos energy capacity.Currently,Morocco imports more than 90A of its energy needs.The market is also heavily reliant on coal-fired power plants,which supply more than two-thirds of overall output.With high costs of coal because of sanctions on coal imports from Russia,pressure has mounted on Morocco to accelerate its green energy ambitions.As it seeks to ramp up its renewable energy generation,Morocco expects to meet its targets with the aid of technological developments in energy storage,green hydrogen and lower renewable energy costs.Morocco has been ranked by the International Renewable Energy Agency in the top five globally for potential to produce competitive green hydrogen.42 Last year,its National Hydrogen Commission unveiled a roadmap on green hydrogen and launched the Green H2 cluster,a five-hectare research and development pilot platform,with a focus on producing green ammonia.This is expected to begin in late 2023 and produce four tonnes of green ammonia daily.43Morocco:Favorable legislation will accelerate renewable energy expansionGreek lawmakers have given the green light to developers to accelerate renewables by passing legislation in June to expedite licensing for energy projects.Currently,the average time for licensing green projects is five years,but the new legislation is expected to shorten that to 14 months,with firm deadlines established,and penalties and fines for delaying the permitting process.The new law also calls for the development of at least 3.5GW of energy storage by 2030 and increased grid connections for renewables.34 The measures are expected to play a key role in helping the market reach its 2030 target of 25GW of non-hydropower renewable energy capacity.35 In addition,in July Greece kickstarted its offshore wind program by passing its first offshore wind law.It is now identifying offshore wind zones and auction criteria,and has set a target under the markets National Energy and Climate Plan(NECP)to add at least 2GW of offshore wind by 2030,most of which will be from floating offshore wind farms.36 Transmission system operators are now in the process of identifying connection possibilities for future deployments.In September,Greece awarded 538.4MW of capacity in its most recent renewables tender,with PV solar given 372MW for 14 farms at an average price of 47.98(US$48.83)/MWh.Wind power projects secured 166MW at an average price of 57.66/MWh(US$56.9/MWh).37Meanwhile,Greece continues to attract large investor interest,signing its first bilateral power purchase agreement with Axpo Group for a 100MW solar power project.The market also announced in July that private equity fund the Macquarie Green Investment Groups Cero Generation will seek to add 1GW of renewable energy projects to its portfolio by 2025,and only for corporate PPAs.38Greece:Favorable legislation will accelerate renewable energy expansionRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6011Key developmentsRECAI ranking16Up 5RECAI ranking19Up 1Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsKey developmentsDecentralized energy markets:the future of distributed energy and the implications for energy resilienceAs the world moves toward decentralized distributed energy systems,further steps will need to be taken to boost the resilience of energy infrastructure.AnalysisIn brief The world is shifting away from centralized grid networks toward decentralized distributed energy systems.Centralized grid networks are most prevalent in developed economies,while developing economies have a different set of circumstances to consider.Regulatory integration is increasing as more markets coordinate their efforts to pursue energy security on the international level.The challenge for grid operators is having the visibility and some control over the resources to stabilize the grid when necessary.“Paul DeCotisSenior Partner,Energy and Utilities,West MonroeRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6012Stephen Auton-Smith Managing Director EY Infrastructure Advisors,LLC ContributorsAndrew Horstead EY Global Power&Utilities Lead AnalystJeff Miller EY Americas Power&Utilities Strategy LeaderPaul Micallef EY Global Digital Grid LeaderThomas J.Flaherty,III EY-Parthenon Senior Advisor,Strategy and Transactions,Ernst&Young LLPA global shift away from centralized energy generation toward decentralized distributed energy systems is underway.Decentralized energy takes various forms,including microgrids,small-scale renewables,and combined heat and power(CHP)facilities,as well as distributed energy storage and controllable loads.In contrast to conventional power-generation facilities connected to a centralized grid with power often transmitted over long distances decentralized energy is typically distributed locally.There are a number of drivers behind decentralization,including the push to decarbonize and growing concerns over energy security.Indeed,these shifts have accelerated this year against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine,which has boosted the case for decentralization while dramatically improving the cost-effectiveness of renewables as wholesale power prices have risen.DERs are being deployed rapidly,and this exposes network operators to multiple new challenges.These include cyber threats,given the higher number of attack points available as DERs proliferate.Forecasting and optimizing DERs in real time is also made more difficult,as they generate power by following the availability of natural resources rather than consumer demand.Additionally,unless properly managed,DERs can cause unstable network conditions,resulting in damage to grid assets,overuse and shortened useful asset lives.They can contribute to voltage instability and capacity constraints when low demand combines with high DER output.If they cause sudden spikes and drops in power supply,a grids voltage and frequency level can be disrupted,leading to poorer power quality.And many DERs are not visible to system operators,which makes system planning difficult because the true load being met is unknown.Lastly,network operators will come under pressure to find faster and cheaper ways to connect DERs or risk derailing the speed of the energy transition.Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6013Analysis“The interconnection of DERs on the grid is increasing,as are the types of resource being added and the locations where they are added.The challenge for grid operators is having the visibility and some control over the resources to stabilize the grid when necessary,”says Paul DeCotis,Senior Partner,Energy and Utilities,at West Monroe.“The benefits include potentially lower overall system energy costs,greater grid flexibility and the ability to ramp resources up and down as necessary,to improve reliability and enhance resiliency.”The costs of these DERs have declined,and regulatory support has increased,as governments have focused more on decarbonization and energy security.These resources offer significant potential for increased grid flexibility and complement the integration of renewables.They help reduce demand for costly,large-scale utility infrastructure such as high-voltage transmission lines and lower the number of line losses experienced because of transmission of power across distances.Decentralization is therefore considered to give rise to greater energy resilience that is,the ability to adapt to changing conditions and rapidly recover from disruptions.While decentralization is a global trend,there are regional differences in how it is being implemented.The centralized grid network is most prevalent in developed economies,while there is more exploration and implementation of alternative means of accessing electricity in developing economies,given historical electricity access deficits.This has led to off-grid solar solutions being deployed in sub-Saharan Africa,for example.In Brazil,meanwhile,regulators started encouraging consumers to install small generation units in 2012,and a regulatory framework for distributed mini-generation and micro-generation was approved in 2021.China is also a global leader in DER deployment,and this is set to grow further still as the market pursues carbon neutrality by 2060.More markets are also coordinating efforts to pursue energy security.However,major grid failures in parts of the US,extreme weather events and spiking energy prices all serve as reminders of the vulnerabilities that remain.Given this heightened concern,grid flexibility and energy security have become much more of a priority across large parts of the world.As more regions consider how to address these issues,they will need to take into account various regulatory and practical factors.Spurs to greater investmentIn the US,events such as the drought and heatwave in California in 2022,which put severe strain on the states grid,have brought into sharp focus the need for grid decentralization and resilience.California has brought in legislation to expedite the development of battery storage,including financial support and mandates for the development of new storage capacity.44 Even more significant were the extreme weather events of 2021,with the winter storm in Texas and Hurricane Ida making landfall in Louisiana later that year,both resulting in local grid failures.DER growth driversDriversDescriptionImpact on DER growthFalling technolo-gy costsWith technological advances,there has been a consistent decline in technology prices and related hardware costs.Corporate sustainabilityMany companies are setting environmental,social and governance goals to improve sustainability by increasing the use of renewable energy.Increased electricity demandAs more sectors are electrified,such as transport,the demand for electricity will increase,which will drive growth of batteries.Policy/regulatory requirementsClose to 138 countries have committed to carbon neutrality by 2070 at the latest,including the US,India and China,which are leading carbon emitters.DecarbonizationRenewable generation such as wind and solar does not release harmful emissions and reduces the need for electricity generation from fossil fuels.Grid resiliencyEnergy variability can be balanced using flexible automated grid operations,which simplifies balancing of energy supply and demand.Off-grid solutionsDERs have the capability to provide electricity access to rural and remote areas.They facilitate backup energy solutions for critical operation.Source:EY Knowledge analysis on news articles.Note:the above projections can differ as the current geopolitical situation is unfolding.Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6014AnalysisIn New Orleans,Louisiana,the desire to avoid future grid failures is spurring certain industries,municipal entities and other market participants to step up investment in decentralized energy systems.As power prices rise,additional grid flexibility also has the potential to offer some economic relief.Extreme weather events and energy shortages are also putting centralized grids under pressure elsewhere in the world,bolstering the case for decentralization.Heatwaves have had a significant impact in South Asia this year,resulting in daily blackouts,while South Africa which has long struggled with power shortages after years of underinvestment and mismanagement has been hit by unprecedented levels of power outages in 2022.Isolated incidents,such as the accident at a power plant in Taiwan in March45 that led to widespread power failures across major cities,are also highlighting grid vulnerabilities.Against the backdrop of these events and pressures on grids globally,flexibility that is,the ability of a power system to maintain stability in the face of swings in supply or demand and enhanced reliability of power supply become increasingly important.Traditionally,flexibility was provided in power systems almost entirely by controlling the supply side at major power stations.As the share of intermittent renewable generation in the energy system increases,additional flexibility is required to maintain system reliability.Customer-connected flexibility can help alleviate transmission and distribution constraints,and contribute to releasing additional capacity on both the transmission and distribution networks.Excess power generated by self-sustaining distributed systems can be stored and then used when centralized grids are hit by outages.However,given the challenges that a higher penetration of DERs can present,network operators are also under increased pressure to ensure that decentralization improves flexibility,rather than detracts from it.There are multiple pilots running across Europe to demonstrate flexibility services.However,it is of paramount importance that we bring those pilots to a business-as-usual state in order to deliver a resilient power grid.Catering to higher penetration of renewablesCarbon-intensive electricity generation is being replaced by renewables.By 2030,1 the EU and the UK will install around 510GW of new renewables,70%of which will be connected at distribution grid level.Scaling flexibility solutions are therefore needed to cancel the effects of uncertainty and variability in a system with high levels of renewables.Reducing the cost to achieve net zeroScaling flexibility services will help achieve net zero with significant cost savings.According to an analysis by the Carbon Trust and the Imperial College London,a fully flexible energy system in Great Britain has the potential to deliver material net savings of between2 9.6b and 16.7b per annum in 2050 compared across all scenarios.Cater to expanding flexible electricity demandDue to the electrification of heat,transport and industry global electricity demand is projected to increase from 23,230TWh in 2020 to 60,000TWh in 2050,an average increase of3 3.2%per year.In addition,self-generation of electricity makes managing the power system and maintaining security of supply increasingly difficult.Hence,it is important to scale flexibility services to manage intermittent generation and peak demand.Maintain system resiliency Scaling flexibility services will enable the development of a secure net-zero energy system that can operate cost-effectively in diverse situations.Demand response and thermal storage reduce electricity demand peaks,while battery storage and interconnectors help to meet remaining demand,reducing requirements for backup generation.According to the IEA4,to meet four times the amount of hour-to-hour flexibility needs,batteries and demand response should be used more extensively.Source:1 Why do electric systems need flexibility?Eurelectric Powering People,2 Key findings Flexibility in Great Britain The Carbon Trust,3 Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector(),4 Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector()Why is it important to scale demand-side flexibility services?Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6015Decentralization also stands to receive a boost in the US,thanks to the recent passing of the Inflation Reduction Act,which,among other measures,expands tax incentives available for renewable assets.In Europe,attention has turned to energy resilience,given the scale of upheaval in energy markets and the speed with which the continent is aiming to change its power supply sources.The war in Ukraine,and Russias response to sanctions,and the cessation of gas supplies have highlighted the risks associated with over-reliance on imports in this case,of natural gas in particular and shone a spotlight on other global markets where overreliance could become a challenge.Concerns have been raised,for example,about the fact that China dominates the manufacturing of solar panels,accounting for more than 80ross all key solar panel manufacturing stages.46 Indeed,by some estimates,it could account for between 70%and 98%of the worlds production capacity of the silicon-based raw material and components in solar panels.47 This could become a challenge for markets such as the US,which has seen its relations with China deteriorate.The US is now working to boost its domestic production of solar panels and has approximately 1GW of PV module production capacity,according to Wood Mackenzie,out of a global capacity approaching 500GW as of 2021,according to the International Energy Agency.In an effort to become more competitive,the US extended tariffs on solar products containing crystalline silicon from China in February 2022.Through the Inflation Reduction Act,it has also brought in tax incentives for the development of a more robust solar industry.In the longer term,decarbonization appears set to be a key driver of grid decentralization and modernization,especially as more entities adopt net-zero emissions targets.With that in mind,DERs are becoming increasingly popular,as they help accelerate the uptake and integration of renewables into the energy mix.AnalysisThe war in Ukraine,and Russias response to sanctions has shone a spotlight on other global markets where overreliance could become a challenge.Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisAnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6016Broadening the field for more players and approachesAs energy systems become decentralized,opportunities will be created for different types of players to participate beyond utilities alone.At the same time,DERs need to be enabled to participate in established markets such as wholesale electricity,ancillary service or capacity markets to be exposed to market prices.48 In France,grid-connected storage can deliver cloud storage,ancillary and islanding services,as well as optimization of power.In Germany,it gives the option for rooftop PV systems to be included in tenders.Around the world,the falling cost of solar generation is helping DERs to proliferate.In Africa,for example,Egypt,South Africa,Kenya,Namibia and Ghana are among the leaders when it comes to adding solar capacity.49 More than 70 markets now have net metering policies in place to support distributed solar power.These include Spain,where net metering systems above 100kW in size are allowed to share surplus power with local consumers or inject it into the grid.Some Caribbean markets have adopted hybrid net metering and feed-in policies,allowing residential consumers to offset power,while commercial consumers are required to feed 100%of the power they generate into the grid.In Turkey,legislation permitting consumers to install rooftop PVs without approval and sell excess power to distributors has been in place since 2019.Battery storage regulations are also being rolled out or updated in various markets where regulators and system operators are seeking greater flexibility.Germany leads the European residential market,with up to 150,000 new battery storage systems installed in 2021,while Australia implemented changes in wholesale market trading rules for storage projects at the end of 2021.While there are multiple applications for DER technologies operating at different levels and at varying scale,smaller players will need to proceed with caution if they are to avoid becoming subject to public utility regulations.In the US,for example,most utility regulations allow for customers to have behind-the-meter power-generating equipment.However,if some entities are supplying power,heating or cooling to other organizations,as well as meeting their own needs,this could fall within the scope of the regulations.A further challenge in the US is the fact that much of the infrastructure involved in energy systems is regulated at state level,and approaches to these regulations can vary considerably.Given the relatively limited tenure of politicians and regulators,taking a more long-term approach to challenges such as decentralization is a struggle,even as long-term emissions and decarbonization targets are adopted.Utilities and other players are piloting new technology,but because there is no firm or unified view of what the future may look like,there is a lack of coordination that could prove detrimental to efforts to roll out DERs.On the other hand,CHP and trigeneration or combined cooling,heating and power(CCHP)are emerging in the US as carbon-efficient and cost-effective options for decentralization.In many cases,there is demand for cooling rather than heating,and CCHP can provide a high volume of cooling capacity for major buildings or building clusters.The US also benefits from legacy infrastructure,built in the 1970s and 1980s,that is now being modernized and revitalized as decentralization is increasingly pursued.Decentralization also stands to receive a boost in the US,thanks to the recent passing of the Inflation Reduction Act,50 which,among other measures,expands tax incentives available for renewable assets.While the legislation is still being scrutinized and understood,it paves the way for rolling out the ownership of such assets to a broader base of players.As the variety of players becoming involved in energy systems widens,a greater range of sources of capital is also emerging,including private and sovereign capital and with the new tax benefits in the US,there is less need for tax equity partners than there has been previously.The rollout of smart grids is a significant development in the push toward greater decentralization and energy resilience.Smart grids allow for the bidirectional flows of electricity and data using two-way communication and control capabilities to optimize the flow of energy along a network and enable real-time responses to changes in demand(see section,“Why the world must get smart about energy grids”).Governments in markets such as the US are investing in strategic partnerships pursuing grid modernization,including smart grid solutions.51Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisWhy the world must get smart about energy grids For decades,developed regions have needed a national grid to maintain the transmission and distribution of their electricity.This was often an impressive piece of engineering,but not enormously responsive to waves of demand or localized problems.As the energy transition intensifies and the world moves toward a decarbonized,mostly electrified economy,the demand for electricity from renewable resources will grow exponentially,as will the challenges faced by electricity network operators.Renewable energy generation is very different from generation through traditional,fossil-fueled power plants.Its production is dictated by external factors such as weather conditions rather than in response to demand,and frequently in locations distant from the supply.As a result,efficient ways to store and transmit power are required.The rapidly growing number of small even domestic producers of solar and wind power also creates a need for two-way electricity flow at the household level,which itself requires monitoring and recording.With solar panels on every house roof,windmills on every offshore sandbank,and batteries in every electric vehicle(EV),the generation and storage of energy will look very different in the future.While such systems and technologies are a vital part of the move to decarbonize,they make managing the grid a more complex affair,because flows are less predictable.The grid must be intelligent enough to bring all these small generators together and control the flow of power so that it meets demand.The technology to achieve this is largely still in development,but Paul Micallef,EY Global Digital Grid Leader,sees this as the most exciting area in the near future.“Making the grid smart enough to integrate DERs is the real game changer,”he says.The future grid will also have to deal with challenges to its stability.Spikes in production causing network constraints will place unprecedented strain on the grids assets,leading to their earlier-than-expected degradation.In many regions,aging infrastructure is also facing growing strain from events fueled by climate change,as demonstrated by the Texas grid blackout.To meet these challenges,transmission of electricity across the grid must be accompanied by data on generation,storage and demand,so stakeholders can respond to whatever the information is telling them.This is the basic concept of a“smart grid,”which is expected to improve reliability,efficiency and flexibility.Smart meters are the most familiar form of smart grid technology to consumers,allowing them to monitor their own electricity usage at a more granular level while helping suppliers work out where and when demand is likely to peak.According to Micallef,the future grid“will always need some degree of intelligence,but there will be lots of versions.”Integration of renewable power generation is the most obvious aspect of DER management,but storage and supply management will probably be as important in the long run.One resource that is likely to grow exponentially is the available battery capacity of EVs;130 million EVs are expected to be on Europes roads alone by 2035.52 Micallef says:“As EVs scale,unmanaged charging could put a big strain on the system without the appropriate smart technologies and services in place,e.g.,smart charging.But EVs will also have a big role to play in supporting the system via vehicle-to-grid technology.”Perhaps the biggest challenge of smart grids is that they open up a whole new set of problems for utilities in the form of data security,making them responsible for privacy issues and vulnerable to cyber attacks.The assets and software created to support smart metering,network automation,EV charging and other applications will need to meet a number of criteria,including connectivity,interoperability(a common set of standards will be needed to allow all components to work with each other)and cybersecurity.Each of these,plus the development of appropriate energy storage facilities,offers an opportunity for investors to support decarbonization and the transition to a more productive,lower-carbon economy.AnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6017As EVs scale,unmanaged charging could put a big strain on the system without the appropriate smart technologies and services in place,e.g.,smart charging.But EVs will also have a big role to play in supporting the system via vehicle-to-grid technology.“Paul MicallefEY Global Digital Grid Leader Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisHow smart grids workSmart grids are enabled by new technologies that improve two-way communication,control systems and computer processing.These technologies allow operators to analyze the grids stability,route power appropriately and identify issues.For example,using automation to isolate local faults so they dont shut down an entire network can greatly improve the efficiency of the network and reduce the need for costly grid upgrades.Automated switching can also allow two-way power flow,so small generators such as domestic wind or solar power can be integrated easily into the grid.AnalysisIncreasing the resilience of energy infrastructureFurther steps will need to be taken to boost the resiliency of energy infrastructure.This includes initiatives such as“weatherization”weatherproofing to protect infrastructure from the elements,particularly extremely hot or cold weather to ensure that there is enough capacity to accommodate the rollout of EVs.Indeed,the impact of electrification will need to be considered as it advances across numerous decarbonizing sectors and industries.With intermittency issues,the proliferation of renewables will need to be balanced by more sophisticated energy storage or conventional power generation capacity.Given the interconnectedness of these ecosystems,cybersecurity concerns will increase as smart grids become more widespread.Addressing these will be a top priority for those involved in the development of smart grids,and artificial intelligence and blockchain technology could have a role to play here.See more insight on cybersecurity on page 24.“To ensure the grid is more robust and resilient,more distributed generation,load management and fast-ramping resources must be added at strategic locations on the grid,”says West Monroes DeCotis.“This combined with greater visibility and control of the resources in the hands of grid operators with the ability to island sections of the grid to maintain voltage without service interruptions is important.The grid is getting more complex,stronger and more resilient as more resources are added at strategic locations.”Successful decentralization efforts could depend on a combination of regulation,economics with prices of power at a certain level for projects to be viable and,in the case of renewables,favorable conditions.It will also be important to strike the right balance in providing sufficient backup generation to support critical infrastructure.Technological advances will play a significant role for example,as storage becomes cheaper and more sophisticated.Replicating successful efforts in different regions and markets could prove challenging,however,given how much regulatory,economic and weather conditions may vary.Regions with higher levels of regulatory integration,such as the EU,could have an advantage here.In the US,on the other hand,decentralization remains a more complex task because of the disjointed nature of rules,regulatory bodies and approaches across different states.However,between the acceleration of the energy transition and the heightened energy security concerns that have emerged in 2022,the task of ensuring a smart and decentralized grid contributes to flexibility,and resilience has taken on a new urgency.As this urgency increases globally,market participants will see ever-growing incentives to act.Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6018With intermittency issues,the proliferation of renewables will need to be balanced by more sophisticated energy storage or conventional power generation capacity.Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6019AnalysisDifferent approaches to smart gridsIn countries without an established national grid,the development of smart grid technology may enable a new form of infrastructure,where the overall grid is made up of microgrids perhaps connecting solar power from individual houses or villages to provide greater stability for all.This connectivity will obviously be most useful in areas with insufficient electrification,but it also has a role to play in developing resilience in more developed areas.Where service is unreliable perhaps in an isolated rural area,or in a highly concentrated urban area where surges in demand can lead to brownouts or blackouts a microgrid that can switch to operating independently of the wider grid will be a clear advantage.In most cases,the development of a smart grid will require significant support from governments,but what that support will look like will depend on each governments long-term strategy.China,for example,has made domestic energy security its focus,53 so its policies have tended to look at improving transmission.This is because its vast quantity of wind and solar energy is produced miles from demand centers.In addition,the flow of power has historically been interrupted by local peaks in demand,causing frequent outages in overwhelmed distribution grids.Chinas push to build its renewable energy capacity has also outstripped its grids ability to bring those new power sources online,so smart grid facilities that make it easier to bring distributed energy generation to consumers are highly desirable.In Canada,the emphasis has been on smart meters,which help consumers understand their own energy use,thereby facilitating improved efficiency.Smart meters were installed in all homes and small businesses in Ontario in 2010,and the province had moved entirely to“time of use”billing by 2012.This has led to tangible reductions in peak demand of electricity consumption by residential consumers.54 Such a move is the first step toward bringing the Internet of Things into the smart grid.A fridge that tells you the milk is going off may be the advertising headline,but a freezer that knows it can turn itself off for an hour or two during peak times is a more useful development in the long term.Developing a smart grid can also support national security.In the Baltic states,it has been an essential element of the project to disconnect from the Russian grid55 and connect to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity,a broader power grid covering 39 European countries.Threats from Russia to cut the Baltic states off after they implemented EU sanctions against the country because of the war in Ukraine have turned this into a task of extreme urgency.While the work is mostly focused on synchronizing networks and building links between the Baltic states and neighboring countries,the project has also improved the efficiency of networks by,for example,installing battery capacity.the average annual global investment required in electricity networks up to 2030 to implement smart grid technologies and get on track for net zero by 2050,according to the International Energy Agency.Investments in digital assets must increase eightfold,at more than twice the speed of total investments in transmission and distribution.US$800bForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsAnalysisRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6020Promising markets punching above their weightRegional focusThe RECAI uses various criteria to compare the attractiveness of renewables markets,such as magnitude of development pipeline,that reflect the absolute size of the renewable investment opportunity.Hence,the index naturally benefits large economies.However,by normalizing with the gross domestic product(GDP)that is,dividing the“raw”RECAI scores by the log of GDP we can see which markets are performing above expectations for their economic size.MarketNormalized rankingRECAI rankingMovement vs.RECAI rankingMorocco119 18Greece216 14Denmark311 08Jordan438 34Chile517 12Ireland613 07Australia76 01Portugal825 17Finland922 13Germany103 07Netherlands1110 01United Kingdom124 08France135 08Spain148 06India157 08Israel1621 05Poland1718 01Sweden1820 02Philippines1927 08Belgium2024 04MarketNormalized rankingRECAI rankingMovement vs.RECAI rankingHonduras2160 39Kazakhstan2235 13Tunisia2355 32Italy2412 12Argentina2526 01Dominican Republic2645 19Egypt2729 02Kenya2846 18China Mainland292 27Brazil3014 16United States311 30Japan329 23Panama3353 20Austria3432 02Bulgaria3552 17Canada3615 21Sri Lanka3757 20Taiwan3828 10Vietnam3936 03South Korea4023 17ContributorsAlexis Gazzo EY&Associs France Climate Change and Sustainability Services LeaderElanne Almeida Sustainability Services Partner,EY Servicios Profesionales de Auditora y Asesoras SpA.Pedro Subtil EY Portugal Energy&Resources Leader,Ernst&Young S.A.Looking at the data in this way has uncovered some interesting examples of building a carbon-free economy in smaller markets,helping reveal ambitious plans for the energy transition.We explore three such markets that are creating some attractive alternatives for potential investors.Arnaud de Giovanni EY Global Renewables LeaderForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsRegional focusRegional focusWith very few fossil fuel resources of its own,Morocco has historically imported most of its energy.As the technology for renewable energy sources has developed,however,so has the North African markets aspiration to generate its own power.The government wants 52%of its energy to come from renewable sources by 2030,and 80%by 2050.56 In 2020,Morocco fell just short of an interim target of 42%,but it is now on track to meet its 2030 target,with ambitious plans for installation of more solar and wind power capacity.With 3,000 hours of sunshine a year,Morocco is well placed for solar power57 currently its largest renewable energy source.However,wind is expected to overtake solar in the coming decade as large projects come online.Topographical features such as the Atlas Mountains and access to the Sahara Desert have allowed Morocco to build flexibility into its power system,with pumped storage hydropower in the mountains and concentrated solar power plants(some with thermal storage)in areas with the most direct sunlight.This is particularly necessary for a system largely reliant on renewables,which cannot be switched on and off in response to demand.Its geopolitical position is another positive factor in Moroccos journey to a low-carbon economy.Not only does it have two existing interconnectors with the Spanish power system,but a third is planned,as well as a fourth with Portugal.Morocco is also active in supporting other African markets with their clean energy transitions,drawing on its own experience.According to Sad Mouline,Director General of the Moroccan Agency for Energy Efficiency:“Morocco has shown that,when you have a strategy and political support,you can reach the lowest renewable prices in the world,less than three US cents per kilowatt-hour in the wind sector.”Speaking to the Middle East Policy Council,he continued:“Morocco has shown the whole continent how to economically implement renewable energy policies,and we support our partners throughout the continent today in this pursuit.”58As well as targeting renewable energy to produce electricity,Morocco is looking at how to decarbonize other sectors,including transport,which will require new fuels such as green hydrogen,and agriculture,which needs a combination of solar power,to substitute for diesel generators,and innovative fertilizers.It hopes this will help spark a“green revolution”for Africa.It is envisaged that all this development of renewable energy projects will be supported by foreign direct investment,through the institutional framework of the Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy(Masen).This is a“one-stop shop”for private project developers,bringing together permit processes,land acquisition and financing,and potentially providing a state guarantee for the investment.MASEN tenders attract private developers and investors in renewable energy projects through a model of public debt,state guarantees and concessional loans.New financing models and the diversification of financing sources(e.g.,green bonds)are critical to boosting private investment and commercial bank loans.There is no doubt,however,that Morocco has the natural resources,regulatory support and government commitment to lead Africas green revolution.Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6021Topographical features such as the Atlas Mountains and access to the Sahara Desert have allowed Morocco to build flexibility into its power system,with pumped storage hydropower in the mountains and concentrated solar power plants in areas with the most direct sunlight.Normalized rankingRECAIranking119MoroccoForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsRegional focusRegional focushuman beings with the rest of the species and our environment.A different way of looking at the world,some would say unconventional,but so necessary in a world that suffers the blows of the climatic urgency and the polarization of our society.”61 The biggest challenge is getting the power from where it is produced,mostly in the north and the south of Chile,to the metropolitan center around Santiago.As Chile is 4,300 miles long but only an average of 175 miles wide this is a considerable obstacle.A major interconnector project linked the north and center in 2017,but the National Electric Coordinator estimates another US$3.2b needs to be spent on transmission projects by 2025.Chile is taking on a considerable and multifaceted challenge,including phasing out its 28 coal-fired plants by 2040.Added to this,regulation of stand-alone storage systems to make up for the transmission deficit has taken longer than expected to be approved.Furthermore,price allocation mechanisms will have to be resolved if the market is to resume investing.The price fluctuations have been caused by,among other things,the persistent drought,which has required diesel-based thermal power plants to continue to operate,attracting higher costs to the system.If Chile is to meet its ambitious targets,integrated planning will be essential,as will a clear tariff scheme and a long-term commitment by the government to the energy transition,to convince investors there is no risk of the governments support suddenly dissipating.In line with this,the Chilean Senate recently approved the Storage Law,which it is hoped will clear up regulatory doubts about this type of technology.Another market heavily reliant on fossil fuel imports,but blessed with enormous potential for renewable power generation,is Chile.The Atacama Desert,in the north,is one of the best solar resources in the world,with a theoretical potential of 1,800GW,while southern coasts and mountains have exceptional wind resources.59With this in mind,Chile aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.By the end of 2020,it was generating more than half its electricity from renewable sources,well on track for its interim target of 70%by 2030 and impressively beyond its original 2020 target of 20%.A year later,that proportion had risen to 54.1%,an acceleration in an already speedy growth rate.60This progress has been helped by the development of an innovative auction process for electricity providers,allowing them to bid for contracts in four supply blocks:whole-year 24/7;quarterly;daylight;and nighttime.This is of particular value to solar producers,which no longer have to buy in power to cover the nighttime supply for which they were previously contracted.A note of realism is struck by the President of the Chilean Association for Renewable Energies,ACERA AG,Jos Ignacio Escobar,in a recent newsletter.“They say that if the road is difficult,it is because you are going in the right direction.And difficult it has been,”he said.“But time has proved us right,and today,renewable energy and storage are the only technologies capable of responding to the innumerable energy challenges that the world faces.Sustainable development,balancing the economic,the social and the environmental,is the only viable form of coexistence between Normalized rankingRECAIranking517ChileChile also views green hydrogen as a key part of its plan for carbon neutrality.It wants to become the top exporter of green hydrogen by 2050.The path toward this objective is set out in the National Green Hydrogen Strategy,but the mechanisms to implement such a strategy remain unclear.Deploying projects already in the pipeline is essential if Chile is to compete with other countries that also aspire to be the worlds prominent supplier of green hydrogen.Nevertheless,such ambition is good news for the world.Decarbonizing Chiles mining industry including lithium(used in batteries and energy storage)and copper(used in EVs,among other things)would be a big step toward a global transition to a low-carbon economy,62 and is already under way.Today,renewable energy and storage are the only technologies capable of responding to the innumerable energy challenges that the world faces.“Jos Ignacio EscobarPresident of the Chilean Association for Renewable Energies,ACERA AGRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6022Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsRegional focusRegional focusPortugal may be geographically on the edge of Europe,but it is central to showing the value of government commitment to renewables.The government strongly believes that a significant acceleration in the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources this decade is the best way to achieve stable and lower electricity prices and,consequently,a more competitive industry.With a high level of production and consumption of electricity from renewable energy sources,Portugal aims to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel imports.63 While hydro and wind power have been the focus for the past decade,2019 marked the tipping point for Portugal and solar PV.After several years of underinvestment in this technology,Portugals 2019,2020 and 2021 solar auctions,which allocated around 2.3GW of new solar power capacity,changed the paradigm in the market completely.The tenders were a resounding success,with Portugal setting world records for the lowest solar tariff price.In a striking display of innovation in 2020,eight of the 12 blocks put up for auction were awarded in the storage option.This meant Portugal was one of the first markets to develop large-scale hybrid projects with renewable generation plus storage.In a further innovation,the 2021 auction allocated 263MW of floating PV at seven dams across Portugal.Portugal is currently on track for 80%of its electricity production to come from renewables by 2030,according to the Portuguese Energy Services Regulatory Authority,including solar projects in the pipeline representing about 12GW.The energy transition is not just about electrification.To accelerate decarbonization of the economy,Portugal also aims to invest in renewable gases,such as green hydrogen.The war in Ukraine and subsequent energy shortages have prompted some markets to look at increasing energy consumption from alternative fossil fuel sources.Portugal has instead simplified procedures and reduced licensing deadlines for renewable energies and hydrogen,to continue decarbonizing its economy and reduce its dependence on energy from abroad more rapidly.Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6023the proportion of electricity production from renewables that Portugal is on track to achieve by 203080%Normalized rankingRECAIranking825PortugalForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsRegional focusRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6024Why the renewables sector must meet cybersecurity challenges head-on The rise of distributed energy networks and smart grids is leading to more complex cybersecurity challenges as more devices are integrated into energy systems.InsightCybersecurity is increasingly seen as a top priority for energy infrastructure,especially in the wake of significant events such as the cyber attack on the US Colonial Pipeline in 202164 and on Greeces largest natural gas distributor,DESFA,in August 2022.65 This focus on cybersecurity is being amplified by current trends,including decentralization and the implementation of smart grid technologies.Smart grids allow for the bidirectional flow of power and information,and use two-way communication and control capabilities to respond to changes in demand in real time.However,this increased connectivity of technologies leaves smart grids vulnerable to cyber attacks,and this will need to be addressed as they are rolled out further.Among the critical infrastructure that could be vulnerable are power plants,electricity grids,pipelines,communication networks and cloud systems.Newer technology adds to the challenge,given its greater connectivity to the Internet of Things(IoT)and the Industrial Internet of Things(IIoT).“The cybersecurity issue is not really new,I think its just been overlooked in the past,”says Jalal Bouhdada,DNVs Global Cyber Security Lead and founder and CEO of Applied Risk,a specialist industrial cybersecurity firm acquired by DNV last year.He points to a number of developments that have contributed to the growing seriousness and complexity of cybersecurity threats,including geopolitical tensions,a shortage of relevant skills,and the convergence of information technology(IT)and operational technology(OT).“The other part is the threat actors,”Bouhdada continues.“They are very active,very organized and very selective in terms of their target,and it depends on who you are dealing with.”Steps are already being taken to address cybersecurity challenges on a number of fronts,including regulation.Several markets are establishing,revising or enhancing their regulations relating to cybersecurity,with a focus on critical national infrastructure and OT environments.Significant challenges are presented by the existence of legacy technology,however.A lot of legacy OT systems are part of billion-dollar infrastructure investments and cannot be upgraded,or even changed,without another large 20-to 40-year investment.At the same time,the rise of smart grids and distributed energy networks is increasing the complexity of cybersecurity requirements,given the growing number of devices being integrated into energy systems.In many cases,cybersecurity breaches can go undetected for some time,or even indefinitely.Collaboration between public and private sector is very important.I think the relationship between companies and regulators does not always make this easy.“Jalal BouhdadaGlobal Cyber Security Lead,DNV;and founder and CEO of Applied RiskIn brief The rise of smart grids and distributed energy networks is presenting increasingly complex cybersecurity challenges,while legacy technology continues to represent a different kind of obstacle.Several markets are developing or enhancing their regulatory environments for cybersecurity in an effort to protect critical energy assets.Organizations can take steps to bolster cybersecurity,but collaboration is required,internally and externally;external collaboration,in particular,presents additional challenges.Clinton M.Firth EY Global Cybersecurity Lead,Energy Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsInsightRaising the focus on cybersecurityThe ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline,the largest fuel pipeline in the US,with a capacity of around 2.5 million barrels of refined products per day,illustrated just how serious a cyber attack on a major piece of energy infrastructure can be.This incident was pivotal because of the severity of the resulting outage and the strength of the US governments response.Following the attack,the Colonial Pipeline Company shut down the pipeline and its IT systems for six days,leading to supply disruptions and spiking gasoline prices,which hit US$3 per gallon for the first time in nearly seven years.The pipeline carries nearly half the fuel consumed on the US East Coast and,though it was only offline for a few days,the outage prompted the US government to take action,issuing new regulations to critical pipeline companies.66 The directives,the first of their kind for the US,have subsequently been updated after the government assessed how they were working in practice.67Other markets are also introducing or upgrading regulations relating to cybersecurity,and the US response to the Colonial Pipeline attack will have been watched closely by governments looking at how best to protect their critical energy infrastructure.Even before the US attack,efforts to improve performance on energy cybersecurity through regulation were under way elsewhere in the world.However,the Colonial Pipeline incident and others including the attack on DESFA in Greece,which caused a system outage and data exposure,and the distributed denial-of-service attack on Lithuanian state-owned energy provider Ignitis Group in July 202268 have heightened concerns globally about the impact of cybercrime.A number of markets,including Australia and China,are seeking to update their cybersecurity regulations,while,in September 2022,the European Commission published a proposal for a European Cyber Resilience Act.If implemented,this regulation would require any manufacturer of a“product with digital elements”to meet minimum cybersecurity requirements if it wants to place that product on the EU market.The proposal applies to software as well as hardware.Also in September,a joint alert put out by government cybersecurity units in the US,the UK,Australia and Canada warned about advanced persistent threat actors that the partners believe to be affiliated with the Iranian governments Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.69 The alert warned critical infrastructure companies in particular to step up their cybersecurity measures in the face of the threat posed.Addressing the challenge of aging technologyGovernments and companies seeking to improve their cybersecurity performance are faced with a two-fold challenge:aging legacy technology that would require billions of dollars to upgrade,and new technology that is increasingly connected via the IoT and IIoT.A lot of the technology used in new distributed energy systems for example,smart meters and solar controllers is identical or similar in configuration and design.While this makes it easier to standardize components and bring down their costs,it can also lead to them being more exposed.Legacy technology cannot be easily upgraded or replaced without broader,more extensive and costly investment.There are also risks related to disrupting systems that are running around the clock if attempts are made to upgrade them.As a short-term fix,extra defenses and monitoring can be added.However,until companies are ready to make the significant investments required to completely overhaul assets with legacy technology components,little can be done to bring a meaningful solution to the problem of aging infrastructure.However,with the increasing focus on cybersecurity,companies may come under new pressure to invest more than previously planned in overhauling and upgrading legacy infrastructure.InsightRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6025the length of time the Colonial Pipeline and its IT systems were shut down after a cyber attack in 2021,forcing gasoline prices up to US$3 per gallon Six daysForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsInsightLearning lessons from around the globeRegions seeking to bolster their cybersecurity defenses can learn lessons from each other.South Korea,for example,has more than 30 years experience in developing and implementing cyber resilience for its critical infrastructure.It is one of the worlds most digitally connected markets,making it vulnerable to cyber attacks.For geopolitical reasons,South Korea has been frequently targeted by cyber attacks suspected of originating in North Korea.In response to these threats,it has developed more comprehensive cybersecurity policies aimed at supporting the private and public sectors to prepare for,respond to and recover from cyber threats.70 It has increased funding available for cybersecurity,invested in more personnel,enacted regulations to bolster the cybersecurity industrys competitiveness,and sought international cooperation.71The US has also made significant strides,including over the past year when,among other changes,the government established the Office of the National Cyber Director.72 This office will coordinate the overall federal cyber strategy,including broadening engagement and information sharing between the private sector and various federal agencies.The cyber incident disclosure requirements introduced after the Colonial Pipeline attack also represent a significant change in US policy,and the platform used for reporting such incidents continues to evolve.Cybersecurity and smart grid implementationThe cybersecurity challenges presented by new technology and smart grids are different.Moving a city from traditional meters to smart meters increases the overall cyber exposure;the broader proliferation of IoT devices increases the potential attack surface area.Often,such devices do not have a full operating system and are poorly configured at times,with hard-coded passwords.They are generally cheap,and therefore prone to being forgotten,so they remain in their environment and connected to the IoT,but not managed.They also tend to be difficult to monitor because of the challenges of log generation.Much of the technology used in new distributed energy systems for example,smart meters and solar controllers is identical or similar in configuration and design.While this makes it easier to standardize components and bring down their costs,it can also lead to them being more exposed in particular,to accelerated lateral movement or attack vectors by threat actors.For example,a recent test of smart meters that had the same hard-coded password resulted in one successful attack,which then led to tens of thousands of devices being taken over within seconds.Given their sheer number,it is difficult to manage IIoT devices,and it may not be possible to control them in the case of home solar or battery technology,for instance.The situation stands to be further complicated over time by the proliferation of EVs,especially as the bulk of charging will happen at the home,creating additional cybersecurity concerns.There are also risks associated with threat actors using the supply chain to get to their primary target,while the constant evolution of software means new configurations could introduce fresh vulnerabilities to energy systems.InsightRenewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6026In addition,the US and South Korea have worked to strengthen their bilateral cybersecurity cooperation,and these efforts could serve as a model for other markets to follow.Organizations should equip themselves with new cybersecurity skills and engage on the topic at a senior level with boards,for example.Increasing sector-wide collaboration on cybersecurity is another important step they can take.Such steps are achievable,according to DNVs Bouhdada,but require commitment from senior management and a willingness to collaborate within and beyond an organization.“Collaboration between public and private sector is very important,”he says.“I think the relationship between companies and regulators does not always make this easy.”Given the vast and rapidly changing cybersecurity landscape in which threat actors are increasingly more sophisticated greater cooperation between countries could be essential to more effective cybersecurity strategies.The opportunities for new investment are both immense and critical.Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsInsightTechnology-specific scoresRankMarketPrevious rank Movement on previous indexScoreOnshore windOfffshore windSolar PVSolar CSPBiomassGeothermalHydroMarine1US173.358.159.358.546.428.946.740.920.52China Mainland272.256.256.861.154.950.624.050.617.63Germany471.755.552.154.432.453.337.141.621.14UK370.059.462.047.915.656.236.239.835.35France569.155.452.953.323.547.438.541.738.16Australia669.054.433.657.648.141.517.726.625.27India768.651.826.462.934.544.522.045.720.18Spain965.852.836.551.529.339.715.623.423.29Japan865.750.850.049.219.657.445.238.423.610Netherlands1064.953.747.547.415.652.524.527.423.611Denmark1164.053.350.246.316.443.215.521.321.112Italy1563.647.742.150.331.443.332.646.018.713Ireland1263.451.645.146.119.626.117.823.424.714Brazil1362.253.730.652.525.048.513.043.718.715Canada1662.054.935.646.219.033.323.045.826.116Greece2161.551.230.948.235.444.225.141.314.717Chile1461.451.520.648.154.741.945.844.927.818Poland1961.148.642.048.113.546.919.736.014.319Morocco2060.446.217.951.950.826.914.434.614.420Sweden1760.048.940.642.515.644.618.132.327.1Data and methodologyRECAI 60 scores Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6027Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsData and methadologyTechnology-specific scoresRankMarketPrevious rank Movement on previous indexScoreOnshore windOfffshore windSolar PVSolar CSPBiomassGeothermalHydroMarine21Israel1859.739.615.355.436.429.614.817.816.822Finland2459.459.743.434.615.350.915.327.715.323South Korea2259.339.541.949.218.849.517.229.933.024Belgium2959.151.436.641.718.245.122.621.620.125Portugal2359.043.923.048.625.140.823.036.723.726Argentina2758.151.723.149.131.941.415.638.219.527Philippines2857.942.721.348.820.544.143.542.420.728Taiwan3157.442.045.945.218.135.727.432.927.229Egypt2656.546.814.953.547.429.713.323.011.530Turkey2556.047.019.148.523.940.041.943.019.731Switzerland3355.741.318.043.918.538.222.937.515.432Austria3755.645.920.842.313.941.417.339.621.033Mexico3254.641.821.247.224.335.939.534.918.934Norway3454.648.234.038.014.233.116.745.232.035Kazakhstan3653.845.513.845.117.630.114.541.613.336Vietnam3053.743.743.543.516.639.412.145.917.737South Africa3553.346.718.043.946.832.312.319.520.438Jordan3952.940.814.344.830.820.613.816.013.839Indonesia4352.738.618.546.717.343.556.947.320.240Thailand3851.938.315.044.021.241.816.231.318.2Data and methodologyRECAI 60 scores Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6028Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsData and methadologyRECAI methodology The index rankings reflect our assessment of the factors driving market attractiveness in a world where renewable energy has gone beyond decarbonization and reliance on subsidies.We have defined the questions being asked,based on what we see as global market trends affecting investment and deployment priorities,and the challenges and success factors impacting EY clients:Is there a long-term need for additional or replacement energy supply?If so,is there a strong case for energy from renewable resources in particular?Is policy hindering or helping the ability to exploit renewables opportunities?Are essential components in place to ensure project delivery,such as long-term contracts,grid infrastructure(including storage)and availability of finance?What does the strength of natural resource,track record and project pipeline reveal about the outlook for particular renewable technologies?Even if all other elements are in place,does the macro stability and investment climate enable or impede the ease of doing business?These index pillars therefore put emphasis on fundamentals such as energy imperative,policy stability,project delivery(including capital availability)and diversity of natural resource factors that will increasingly become key market differentiators as markets move toward grid parity,and“artificial”motivations,such as government targets or the ring-fencing of technologies,become less critical.Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6029Data and methodologyDetermining the rankingsEach parameter within the five pillars comprises a series of data sets that are converted into a score,from one to five,and weighted to generate parameter scores.These are weighted again to produce pillar scores,then an overall RECAI score and ranking.Weightings are based on the EY assessment of the relative importance of each data set,parameter and pillar in driving investment and deployment decisions.Each technology is also allocated a weighting based on its share of historical and projected investment levels.Separate from the main index,EY technology-specific indices rankings reflect a weighted average score across the technology-specific parameters and a combined score covering our other macro and energy market parameters.This is because some markets may be highly attractive for specific technologies but face other major barriers to entry.Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data.We are unable to publicly disclose the underlying data sets or weightings used to produce the indices.If you would like to discuss how EY RECAI analysis could help your business decisions or transactions,please contact the RECAI Advisor Lavaanya Rekhi.Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsData and methadologyData and methodologyPPA Index scores RankMarketPrevious rankMovement on previous indexNormalized score(0-100)PPA Index scorePPA market maturityPPA future market scorePPA policy scoreRECAI score1Spain1100.025,119,94683.287.852.365.82Germany397.024,378,58869.588.155.571.73United States296.424,216,364100.055.559.573.34United Kingdom479.920,058,32167.578.454.170.05Australia568.617,237,13978.554.458.669.06France662.015,578,26356.577.951.369.17Denmark1061.815,519,83257.181.852.064.08India1460.615,226,92362.650.969.668.69Netherlands957.414,425,79154.775.453.964.910Sweden757.414,425,55162.776.949.960.011Finland856.514,183,08766.068.153.159.412Italy1152.213,125,09648.982.351.363.613Brazil1343.010,810,43972.354.544.162.214Norway1541.810,487,76860.163.250.654.615Poland1235.28,852,11154.546.657.161.116Portugal1728.47,131,28435.864.952.059.017Chile1625.26,320,71349.039.153.761.418Egypt2623.65,920,44048.737.657.256.519South Africa2023.35,856,27756.935.454.653.320Morocco1822.25,585,80040.737.760.260.421Colombia2121.25,312,87454.440.050.548.322Belgium1920.65,183,79952.732.052.059.123Ireland2217.04,282,55533.136.056.763.424Japan2817.04,276,60525.348.553.165.725Ethiopia2513.43,360,59537.135.261.541.826Thailand2313.23,315,30343.823.263.051.927Greece2411.72,932,53927.034.650.961.528Romania2710.32,593,96027.734.153.951.129Lithuania298.12,034,23033.433.551.635.330Bulgaria7.11,777,28723.529.054.447.9Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6030Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsData and methadology06Data and methodologyPPA Index methodologyBy analyzing the same 100 markets as in the full RECAI database,the goal is to create a new ranking that focuses on the attractiveness of renewable power procurement via offsite corporate PPAs rather than the attractiveness of renewable project investment.The final score for the top 30 markets is calculated from a weighted combination of 12 key parameters,which act as a proxy for corporate PPA potential.The PPA Index focuses on four pillars(three PPA-specific pillars together with a RECAI score pillar):PPA market maturity this focuses on activities carried out within each market in the past decade.It concentrates on market maturity,looking at past PPA deal frequency and volume,as well as a quantitative analysis of more recent PPA deal growth.PPA future market this forward-looking score assesses the forecast activity of each market.Forecast power capacity is a key driver of the magnitude of a market,so this has a significant weighting on the score as well as the wholesale power price relative to the levelized cost of energy(LCOE)or PPA price in each location.Forecast capacity installations and a weighted project pipeline score from the RECAI are used.The index has focused on wind and solar PPAs(together weighted at 93%)as these represent the vast majority of offsite corporate PPAs.PPA policy score this focuses on the ease of operation in a given market.If a market is to have potential for corporate PPA growth,supporting government policy must be in place for efficient and large-scale expansion.This is considered in the core RECAI,but is also examined here,with a more nuanced focus on PPA supportive policy.RECAI score the overall score yielded by the RECAI is also factored in as one of the fundamental pillars,because this provides a strong overview of the existing and potential strength of a markets renewable energy landscape.The PPA Index uses a multiplicative formula to prioritize well-rounded markets with strengths in all aspects of corporate PPA development and integration.For example,this will mean that markets with zero PPA deals to date will score zero overall and will not yet be included.However,with strong weighting on forward-looking parameters,even markets with just a few deals to date could score highly if significant growth is expected in the corporate PPA market within the next five years the horizon of the RECAI.The PPA Index score(which can be very large)has been normalized into a score from 0 to 100,to create a more manageable reference value.The leading market will score 100 but this does not mean that the market is perfect for corporate PPAs.It means that,relatively speaking,it is the most attractive market for corporate PPAs across the coming five years.Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data.We are unable to publicly disclose the exact data sets or weightings used to produce the indices.For more information on the services that EY teams provide to corporates around renewable energy strategies and PPAs,please refer to our website:and methodology31PPA market maturity(Sources:Pexapark,DLA Piper and EY analysis)1.Number of PPAs signed in the past five years2.Total PPA volume in the past five years3.Number of PPAs signed in the past year4.Total PPA volume in the past yearPPA future market(Sources:Wood Mackenzie,GlobalData,IRENA,IEA,Pexapark and EY analysis)1.Pipeline of projects:a.Forecast power capacity b.Forecast installation growth c.Project pipeline2.Wholesale power pricing:a.Wholesale power price relative to the historic LCOE b.Wholesale power price relative to the PPA pricePPA policy score(Sources:World Bank,GlobalData,IEA and EY analysis)1.Ease of doing business index(World Bank)2.Renewable energy imperative:Renewable energy percentage of total generation Percentage of population with access to electricity Forecast energy consumption growth CO2 emissionsRECAI score(Source:EY analysis)1.Macro fundamentals2.Energy imperative3.Policy4.Project delivery5.TechnologySpecial thanks to Pexapark for providing access to their data.Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 60Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsData and methadologyData and methodologyNormalized RECAI methodologyWith the largest global markets tending to top the RECAI,there are many smaller markets where renewable energy is growing rapidly and becoming highly attractive.By dividing a markets RECAI score by logarithm of GDP to produce a“normalized score,”the new index identifies those smaller renewable energy markets that perform the best on the core RECAI pillars of energy mix,government support,project delivery and natural resource.Removing a markets economic size showcases those that are efficient in terms of their size and the most attractive for investors.The normalized index also highlights larger markets that score well in the RECAI but could be doing more to support the green transition.Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6032Foreword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsData and methadologyBen WarrenRECAI Chief EditorEY Global Power&Utilities Corporate Finance LArnaud de GiovanniEY Global Renewables LPedro SubtilEY Portugal Energy&Resources LeaderErnst&Young S.APhil DominySenior RECAI AdvisorErnst&Young LLPThomas J.Flaherty,IIIEY-Parthenon Senior Advisor Strategy and Transactions Ernst&Young LLPElanne AlmeidaSustainability Services PartnerEY Servicios Profesionales de Auditora y Asesoras SpANathan DockerEY UK&I Energy and Infrastructure Corporate Finance Senior ExecutiveErnst&Young LLPClinton M.FirthEY Global Cybersecurity Lead EStephen Auton-SmithManaging DirectorEY Infrastructure Advisors LLCPaul MicallefEY Global Digital Grid LAndrew HorsteadEY Global Power&Utilities Lead AAlexis GazzoEY Europe West Sustainability Co-LeaderEY France Climate Change and Sustainability Services LeaderEY&ALavaanya RekhiRECAI AdvisorEY UK&I Energy and Infrastructure Corporate Finance Senior ExecutiveErnst&Young LLPJeff Miller EY Americas Power&Utilities Strategy L Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 6033ContactsForeword RECAI 60PPA IndexKey developmentsAnalysisRegional focusInsightData and methadologyContactsContactsCitationsReferences1 EY research,“The role of distributed energy resources in todays energy grid transition.”Please contact us for more details.2 Bennett,Andy,“Renewable energy future includes DERs to support decarbonization,”Power,10 February 2022,Collins,Leigh,“Analysis:Why the US climate bill may be the single most important moment in the history of green hydrogen,”Recharge,9 August 2022,Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,Congress.gov,www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376/text 5 Kessler,Richard,“New US climate law incentives can ramp solar manufacturing capacity to 50GW by 2030:SEIA
3 人看过 2023-02-17 36页 5星
SDR Ventures：2022年下半年医疗并购趋势报告（英文版）（13页）.pdf
Banca de inversie en waarden van recidos en través van SDR Capital Markets, LLC, miembro de FINRA en SIPC。 Zorg1 28.50-1 6/2/2022Eurofragance（新泽西州）Ares Capital Corporation BDC、Ares Management、OnScent、The Riverside CompanyPersonal Care-1 1/1 7/2022Stony Creek Swim CenterEagle Private Capital、Emler Swim School、Morgan Stanley Capital Partners、 Palatine Capital Partners, Sage Venture PartnersHealth&Fitness-1 24/0/2022Weber-Stephen Products(NYS:WEBR)BDT&CompanyOutdoor Products3,700.002.33-1 1/0/4/2022Skinbetter ScienceLOral USAPersoonlijke verzorging-1 1/02/2022CR Fitness HoldingsMontana Capital Socios、North Castle Partners、TPG Health&Fitness-9/7/2022Outside InteractiveKinomapLifestyle Companies-9/6/2022Hero CosmeticsChurch&Dwight Company Personal Care630.002.747.008/23/2022Simms Fishing ProductsVista Outdoor 户外产品1 92.501.75-8/1/2022Clif Bar&CompanyMondelez International Natuurlijke en biologische voeding2.900.00-7/27/2022Maquillaje met lecheObagiCuidado personal1.200.00-7/20/2022Score SportsAbrdn、Brand Velocity Group、Bridge Venture Partners、Kayne Anderson BDC、Martinson Ventures、Ocean Avenue Capital PartnersActivewear: is een eigen bedrijf onderhandel en activiteit transaccional aanvullend Si es propietario de une empresa y busca actividad transaccional addeel dentro de su industria, llame a nuestras oficinas al 720.221.9220。 De industriële markt heft een officiële status van 720.221.9220.12 11 6 15 12 39 17-5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45Estratégico62%Financiero38%Nombre de la empresaSimboloCapitalización de mercado ($en millones)Precio ($en millones)Precio年度 52 周 Crecimiento maxi de ingresosEBITDA MargenTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrecio/EPSTEV/NTM IngresosTEV/NTM EBITDAPlanet FitnessPLNT6.573$78,80$36,7% (1 3,0%)81,0 en 85,6 %NMNMNM8, 0 x1 9,8xMedifast（马里兰州）MED1260 1 5,35 6,5 %(44,9 %)52,0 %(2,4 %)1 2,8 %0,7x5,9x8,7x0,8xNMWWWW272 3,86 ( 1.8 %)(76.1%)22.1%(1 3.8%)(1 2.7%)1.5xNMNM1.7x9.0 xF.I.T GroupFIT51 0.1 5(36.5%)(77.1%)21.6%NM22.8%0.4x1.8x1 4.9 xNMNMNautilusNLS49 1.53(6.1%)(75.0%)23.4%(1 1.0%)(25.7%)0.3xNMNM0.3xNMSegmentgemiddelde(0.3%)(57.2%)40.0%(0.1%)6.6%0.7x3.8x11.8x2。 7x14 .4xMediana del segmento(1,8 %)(75,0 %)23,4 %(6,7 %)12,8 %0,6x3,8x11,8x1,2x14,4xEstadísticas del mercadoEstadísticas operativas LTM M 倍数 NTM M倍数-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0c-21Ene-22Feb-22Mar-22Abr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Ago-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dic-22Salud y estado físicoEmpresas de estilo de vidaRopa deportivaAlimentos naturales and organicsProductos for exterioresCuidado personalVitaminas, minerales and supplementos S&PymbolMarket CapSymbol 500 $ in millones) Precio ($) Cambio trimestral Cambio anual % de crecimiento de crecimiento de 52 semanas Margen Return EBITDES /NTM EBITDAArminGRMN1 7.689$92,29$1 4,9%(32,2%)66,8%3,5#.7%3,3x1 3,9x1 8,5x3,2x1 1,8xVail ResortsMTN9,61 2 238,35 1 0,5%(27,3%)72,4%1 2,62,4%1 6%4.5x1 3.7x27.8x4.0 x1 2.7xPolaris(US)PII5.854 1 01.00 5.6%(8.1 %) 79,3 %(4,1 %)1 0,3 %0,9x8,6x1 2,5x0 ,9x7,3xBrunswick (EE. UU.) BC5226 72,08 1 0,1 %(28,4 %)69, 7 %6,0 %1 6,5 %1,1 x6,7x8,6x1,0 x5.7xVista OutdoorVSTO1,379 24,37 0,2% (47,1%)46,3%(2,7%) 21,9%0,9x3,9x3,2x0,9x5,1 xGoProGPRO777 4,98 1,0%(51,7%)44,8%(2,9%)8,9%0,5x5。 9x1 0,6x0,5x6,5xClarus（犹他州）CLAR290 7,84(41,8%)(71,7%)26,7%(1,1%)1 1,1%1,0 x9,0 x1 1 ,5x1,0 x7,0 xPromedio del segmento0,1%(38,1%) 58,0 % 1,6,9 % 1,7 x 8,8 x 13,2 x 1,6 x 8,0 x Mediana细分市场 5,6 % (32,2 %) 66,8 % (1,1 %) 16,5 % 1,0 x 8,6 x 11,5 x 1,0 x 7,0 x Estadísticas del mercado Estadísticas operationele LTM-multiples NTM-multiples Nombre de la empresa Simbolo Capitalización de Mercado ($ en millones) Precio ($) Cambio trimestral % van cambio anual de 52 semanas Crecimiento maxi de ingresos EBITDA MargenTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrecio/EPSTEV/NTM IngresosTEV/NTM EBITDANikeNKE1 83 073 $ 1 1 7,01 40,8 % (29,8 % )69,7%1 0,6%1 5,6%3,8x25,1 x33,1 x3,5x23,3xLululemon AthleticaLULU40,853 320 ,38 1 4,6%(1 8,2% )78,0%1 8,5%.2%5,6x22,1 x35,2x4,7x1 8,4xV.F.VFC1 0,728 27,61(7, 7%)(62,3%)36,0%0,3%8,6%1,5x1 7,1 x25,6x1,5x1 2,1 xDeckers MerkenDECK1 0,564 399.1 6 27.7%9.0.2%1 0.5%1 7.7%3.0 x1 7,1 x24,3x2,7xNMUnder ArmourUA4,31 1 8,92 49,7%(50,6%)47,8%3,6 %5,8%0,9x1 4,9x29,7x0, 8x1 0,4xFoot LockerFL3527 37,79 21,4%(1 3,4%)79,7%(5,2%) 9,8 %0,7x7 ,5x8,5x0,8x8,3xWWWW861 1 0,93 (29,0 %)(62,1 %)36,7 %3,5 %1 0,1 %0,9x8,9x5,6x0,9x9,6xPromedio del segmento16,8 %(32,5 %)63,9 %6.0.3%2.3x16.1x23.1x2.1x13.7xMediana de segmento21.4%(29.8%)69.7%3.6.1%1.5x17.1x25。 6x1.5x11.3xBedrijfseconomieBedrijfsstadia LTM M ultiplos NTM M ultiplos Empresa Nombre Símbolo Capitalización de mercado ($ in millones) Precio ($) Cambio trimestral Cambio % van 52 semanas Maximaal inkomen EBITDA MargenTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrecio/EV/EPSTEV/EPSTEV/EPSTEV /EPSTEV/EPSTEV/EPSTEV/EPSTEV/ NTM IngresosTEV/NTM EBITDAUnited Natural FoodsUNFI2,31 6$38,71$1 2,6 %(21,1 %)75,7 % 3,4%2,5%0,2x8,2x1 0,0x0,2x7,0 x海恩天团HAIN1445 1 6,1 8(4,1%)(62,0%)37,2%0,7%8,3%1,3x1 5,5x22,8x1,3x1 1,5xDel Monte PacificD03485 0,25 1 5,1%(1 6,8%)78,8%9,1%1 9,4%1,1 x5,8x9,2x1,0 xNMSeneca FoodsSENEA464 60,95 20, 8,1,7%NM7,1%0,6x7,8x1 0,9xNMNMSegmentgemiddelde11,1%(18,2%)70,1% 4 ,4 % 9,3 % 0,8 x 9,3 x 13,2 x 0,8 x 9,2 x Mediana del segmento 13,9 % (18,9 %) 77,2 % 3,4 % 7, 7 % 0,8 x 8,0 x 10,5 x 1,0 x 9,2 x Estadísticas del mercado Estadísticas operativas LTM M ultiplos NTM M ultiplos Nombre de la empresa Símbolo Capitalización de mercado ($ en millones) Precio ($) Cambio trimestral Cambio anual % de 52 semanas Crecimiento maximo de ingresos Margen EBITDATEV/RevTEV/ EBITDAPrecio/EPSTEV/NTM IngresosTEV/NTM EBITDABrunswick (EE. 69,7 %6,0 %1 6,5 %1,1 x6,7x8,6x1,0 x5,7xVista OutdoorVSTO1379 24,37 0,2 %(47,1 %)46,3 %(2,7 %) 21,9 %0,9x3,9x3,2x0,9x5,1 xSturm,Ruger&CompanyRGR894 50,62 (0.3%)(25.6%)67.6%(1 2.7%)25.4%1.1 x4.4x8.4x1.3xNMJohnson OutdoorsJOUT674 66.1 2 28.9 %(29.4%)68.4%0.7%9.7%0.8x8.3x1 5.1 x0.8xNMEscaladeESCA1 38 1 0.1 8 2.3%(35.5%)58.2%4.2%1 0.8%0.8x7.4x6.9x0.8xNMSegmento Promedio8.2%(33.2 %)62.0%(0.9%)16.9%0.9x6.1x8.4x1.0 x5.4xSegmento M edian2.3%(29.4%)67.6%0.7.5%0.9x6.7x8.4x0.9x5.4xEstadísticas del mercadoEstadísticas operativas LTM M ultiplos NTM M ultiplos Nombre de la Empresa Simmbolo Mercado Capitalización ($ en millones) Precio ($) Cambio trimestral Cambio % anual de 52 semanas de crecimiento maxi de ingresosEBITDA MargenTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrecio/EPSTEV/NTM IngresosTEV/NTM EBITDAUnileverULVR18 27 美元41$1 3,7 %(5,3 %)93,3 %NMNM2,6x1 2,6x1 8,4x2,4x1 2,6x雅诗兰黛EL88 529 1 % 24 (33.0%)66.3%3.1!.0%5.4x25。 9x41.3x5.3x22.8xULTA SchoonheidULTA23.867 469.07 1 6.9%1 3.8.0%7.4%1 8.7%2.6x1 4.1 x20.6x2.4x1 4.1 xCotyCOTY7.277 8.56 35.4%(1 8.5%)79.1%2.81%1 8.1%2.81%1 %2,3x1 2,1 xNM2,2x1 2,1 xInter ParfumsIPAR3,077 96,52 27,9%(9,7%)89,1%1 5,9%1 8,0%3,2x1 8,0 x30,0 x2,8xNMNu Skin EnterprisesNUS2,084 42,1 6 26,3%(1 6,9%)74,3 %(6,2%)6,5%1,0 x1 4,7x54,8x1,0 x7,5xSally Beauty HoldingsSBH1.340 1 2,52(0,6%)(32,2%)63,3%(2,4%)1 1,5 %0,8x6,9x7,5x0 ,8x6,6x Bewoners van USANAUSNA1022 53,20(5,1 %)(47,4 %)51,5 %(7,5 %)1 3,2 %0,7x5,7x1 3,4x0,8x6, 2xUnited-GuardianUG48 1 0,44 (8,1%)(36,5%)40,0%NM28,9%3,0 x1 0,4x1 6,1 xNMNMNMLifevantageLFVN47 3,72(0,8%)(41,1%)54,5% 4,1%2,8%0,2x7,6xNM0,2x2,2xNatuurlijke gezondheidstrendsNHTC39 3.43(6.5% )(49,3 %)42,9 %NM1,7 %NMNMNMNMNMRevlonREV23 3,97(38,2 %)(66, 8 %33,2 %NM(7,1 %)0,3xNMNMNMNMMSegmento promedio4 ,7 %(30,5 %)62,5 %1,9,3 %1,6x11,2x23,7x1 0,5x8,1x Mediana del semento(0,7 %)(34,4 %)58,9 % 2,1,3 %1,0 x11,3x18,3x1,0 x7,1xEstadísticas del mercadoEstadísticas operativas LTM M ultiplos NTM M ultiplos Nombre de la empresa Símbolo Capitalización de mercado ($ en millones) Precio ( $)Cambio trimestral Cambio anual % de crecimiento de ingresos schatte het over 52 semanas Margen EBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrecio/EPSTEV/NTM IngresosTEV/NTM EBITDA 美国康宝莱 HLF1.457$1 4,88 $(25,2%)(63,6%)32,5%(9,1%)1 2,3 %0,7 x6,0 x4,8x0,8x6,9xMedifast(马里兰州)MED1.260 1 1 5 ,35 6,5%(44,9%)52,0%(2,4%)1 2,8%0,7x5,9x8,7x0,8x自然阳光产品NATR1 59 8,32 1,0% (55 ,0 %)43,2 %(3,8 %)6,2 %0,3x4,7x1 5,4x0,3x8,2xLifevantageLFVN47 3,72(0,8 %)(41,1 %)54,5 %4 ,1 %2,8 %0,2x7,6xNM0,2x2,2xMannatechMTEX33 1 7,90(1 3,9 %)(53,3 %)44,9 %NM3,6 %0,2x4,8x8,0 xNMNMSegmento promedio (6 ,5 %)(51,6 %)45,4 %(2,8 %)7,5 %0,4x5,8x9,2x0,5x5,8xSegmento mediano (0,8 %)(53,3%) 44, 9%(3,1%)6,2%0,3x5,9x8,3x0,5x6,9xBedrijfsstadia van de handelBedrijfsstadia van meerdere LTM-veelvouden van NTM 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB%9%9FRGIA567%8%8%9%5QWUX9G96% 8 %6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSub DebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:La fuente más actual de GF Data is de noviembre van 2022.MultiplesSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics2019202120202022*$0.0M$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B$400。 $500.0 B$600.0B1,3002,3003,3004,3005,3006,3002021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q4Negocios cerradosNegocios cerradosCapital invertido6.1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x8x7.6x6.6.6x5 0x58.1 3x8.6x9.0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10.0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm1.“Mercado de Salud y Bienestar(每个部门：Cuidado personal、beauty and antienvejecimiento、nutrición and pérdida de peso、actividad física、turismo de bienestar、medicina preventiva en personalizada、economía de spa en andere），“2022 年 15 月精确咨询研究 https:/is Aqui-Hire", Guía de estudio de gestión, consultada enero .2023 https:/La escasez de mano de obra se mantendrá yes a noticia para los salarios de los trabajadores", Business Insider, Juliana Kaplan en Madison Hoff, 2022 年 11 月 17 日https:/Pone mella in las fusies en vragen over de candente 2021”，标普全球市场情报，2022 年 4 月 4 日 https:/El entorno de interest pesa sobre las fusies en bankadquisiciones van EE。 UU。”，标准普尔全球市场情报，2022 年 8 月 25 日 https:/Tendencias de fusiones y adquisiciones en las industrias de la salud: Actualización de mitad de año de 2022," PWC, 2022 https:/Pharma is een comprando van onze favoriete merken de suplementos：Esto es lo que necesita saber，”Next Health，2022 年 7 月 11 日 https：/www.next-Natural Health News：Big Pharma compañías de suplementos，”自然健康联盟，2022 年 11 月 15 日 https：/anh-usa。 org/big-pharma-buying-up-supplement-companies/9. “Cómo el fitness conectado revolucionará la ervaring van gimnasio en persona”，Ambiq，Charlene Wan，2022 年 6 月 22 日 https：/Va todo in Omnichannel Fitness，“Fitt Insider，2022 年 2 月 23 日 https：/insider.fitt.co/equinox-goes -all-in-on-omnichannel-fitness/11.“In- Los gimnasios personales full, ya que solo el 15 % the los usuarios of EE. UU. De meeste digitale platforms hebben de noodzaak van gimnasios geëlimineerd”，Cision/PR Newswire, 23 maart 2022 https:/Para el consumidor de fitness”, McKinsey&Company, 21 juni 2022 https:/Informeer de vooruitzichten van de commerciele handel activiteiten 2022: verkoop van 16.850 miljoen dollar aan Australische dollars voor 2027: los klanten hebben veel van de natuurlijke producten en biologische producten voor de keuken van het land”，全球新闻专线，en través van Markets and Research，2022 年 2 月 26 日 https:/Snaps Up Brazilian Health Foods Firm Puravida，“Just Food，Andy Coyne，24 de mayo de 2022 https:/www.just-Health Science para adquirir Pronokal,ampliando su cartera de control de peso,"N,7 de febrero de 2022 https: /Wellness Inc. vraagt Nutrawise Health&Beauty Corporation aan, eigenaar van het merk Youtheory" , 美国商业资讯, 2022 年 6 月 1 日 https:/Capital-adquiere Chris Hemsworths Centre Inspire Fitness om een bienestar, persoonlijke voeding en fitness te creëren", 美国商业资讯, 31 maart 2022 https:/Consumer Partners bieden Radiance Holdings aan" ，美国商业资讯，2022 年 12 月 19 日 https:/Los negociadores encontrarán oportunidades”，普华永道，2023 年 https:/Meerdere waarderingscijfers”，Finerva，2022 年 6 月 30 日 https:/
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国际移民组织 (IOM)：2022 年世界移民报告（英文版）（540 页）.pdf
WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022 The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration(IOM).The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning its frontiers or boundaries.IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society.As an intergovernmental organization,IOM acts with its partners in the international community to:assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration;advance understanding of migration issues;encourage social and economic development through migration;and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants._Publisher:International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O.Box 17 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel.: 41 22 717 9111 Fax: 41 22 798 6150 Email:hqiom.int Website:www.iom.intCover photos:Top:Bogotas Mayoral Office runs this Orientation and Assistance Point in Bogotas bus station where humanitarian partners like IOM offer services to Venezuelan migrants and refugees.IOM 2019/Muse MohammedMiddle:Protection from coastal erosion Coxs Bazar.Sampan boats.IOM 2016/Amanda NeroBottom:Many Venezuelans travelling through the continent do so by foot carrying all their children and possessions.Caminantes,or walkers,trek along major highways and through difficult terrain.IOM 2019/Muse MohammedRequired citation:McAuliffe,M.and A.Triandafyllidou(eds.),2021.World Migration Report 2022.International Organization for Migration(IOM),Geneva._ISSN 1561-5502ISBN 978-92-9268-076-3(PDF)ISBN 978-92-9268-078-7(print)IOM 2021Some rights reserved.This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 IGO License(CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO).*For further specifications please see the Copyright and Terms of Use.This publication should not be used,published or redistributed for purposes primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation,with the exception of educational purposes e.g.tobe included in textbooks.Permissions:Requests for commercial use or further rights and licensing should be submitted to publicationsiom.int.*https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcodePUB2021/032/L*WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022 iiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022This volume is the result of a highly collaborative venture involving a multitude of partners and contributors under the direction of the World Migration Report Editor.Work on this edition(World Migration Report 2022)commenced in March 2020 and culminated in the launch of the report in December 2021 by the Director General at the 112th session of IOM Council.The findings,interpretations,conclusions and recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of IOM or its Member States.The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning its frontiers or boundaries.All reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data referred to in this report,including through data verification.We regret,however,any data errors that may remain.Unless otherwise stated,this report does not refer to data or events after June 2021.This edition of the report is dedicated to the late Ambassador William Lacy Swing(1934 2021)and our colleague Tuna Dalkl(1980 2021),both of whom supported the WMR and gave their time and energy to its production and dissemination.The stories behind the photographs can be found on page v.iiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Editorial,review and production teamEditorsMarie McAuliffe(IOM)and Anna Triandafyllidou(Ryerson University)IOM reviewersSoumyadeep Banerjee,Matteo Busto,Meredith Byron,Elizabeth Collett,Harry Cook,Pablo Escribano,Deepali Fernandes,Claire Galez-Davis,Jorge Andrs Gallo,Sam Grundy,Lorenzo Guadagno,Caroline Henderson,Dina Ionesco,Phineas Jasi,Azrah Karim Rajput,Heather Komenda,Luca Lamorte,Andrea Milan,Juliana Quintero and Anita WadudAcademic reviewersTarik Abou-Chadi,Cecilia Cannon,Michael Clemens,Yogesh Dwivedi,Gibril Faal,Alan Gamlen,Ahmet İduygu,Binod Khadria,Susan Martin,Petra Molnar,Sriprapha Petcharamesree,S.Irudaya Rajan,Eugenia Siapera and Sallie Yea Publication production managerValerie HaggerProject administrationLiberty Beria and Aurelie Ben GavrielCopyeditorKarl Muller Report layoutCarmelo TorresReport webpage and interactiveMarie McAuliffe,Adrian Kitimbo,J.Ignacio Martin-Galan,Xaqun Veira Gonzlez,Ray Leyesa and J.C.BorlonganIOM research teamMarie McAuliffe,Cline Bauloz,Adrian Kitimbo,Pablo Rojas Coppari*,Jenna Blower*,Taehoon Lee*,Josiane Matar*,Ben Brindle*,Adam Sawyer*part projectTranslationsFrench and Spanish Translation Units,Governing Bodies Division,IOMAcknowledgementsThe editors are particularly grateful to the authors of the thematic chapters and to all of the IOM and academic reviewers who provided constructive feedback on the draft chapters.We are especially grateful to IOMs Director General,Antnio Vitorino,and members of IOMs senior leadership team,who actively supported this World Migration Report,including Eugenio Ambrosi,Ugochi Daniels,Amy Pope,Wen Li,Eva kerman Brje,Charles Kwenin,Renate Held,Carmela Godeau,Nenette Motus,Michele Klein Solomon,Diego Beltrand,Marcelo Pisani,Mohammed Abdiker,Elizabeth Collett,Helga Bras,Vincent Houver,Alejandro Guidi,Aissata Kane,Othman Belbeisi,Iori Kato,Manfred Profazi and Luca DallOglio.We also wish to acknowledge the Governments of Australia,Canada and Ireland for their financial support,as well as Robert Bosch Stiftung,the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Geneva Office,the IOM Migration Resource Allocation Committee(MIRAC)and many IOM regional and country offices around the world.Special thanks also to the Harvard Data Science Review(especially Xiao-Li Meng and Rebecca McLeod),USA for IOM and USA for UNHCR for the May 2021 World Migration and Displacement Symposium.ivWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Contributors Chapter 1:Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresAuthors:Marie McAuliffe and Anna TriandafyllidouResearch assistants and other contributors:Cline Bauloz,Taehoon Lee and Adrian Kitimbo.For Appendix B:Carmela Godeau,Kristina Mejo,Wonesai Sithole,Emmanuel Quarshie,Nenette Motus,Itayi Viriri,Rudolf Maxwald,Sarah Carl,Susanne Melde,Andrea Ortiz,Ryan Schroeder,Elisa Tsakiri,Amr Taha,Ivona Zakoska-Todorovska,Chiara Maria Tognetti,Stefanie Allemann,Helene Legoff,Ionela Timofte,Simon Lauranne Van Asch,Alexander Doggen,Agnes Ebenberger,Abdi Hersi,Ericka Guevara and Ezequiel Texido Chapter 2:Migration and migrants:A global overviewMain contributors:Marie McAuliffe,Taehoon Lee and Guy AbelResearch assistants and other contributors:Mohammad Rizki,Silvan Lange,Joey Cabana and Virginie FongChapter 3:Migration and migrants:Regional dimensions and developments Main contributors:Adrian Kitimbo,Jenna Blower,Marie McAuliffe,Guy Abel and Taehoon LeeResearch assistants and other contributors:Pablo Escribano,Rudolf Maxwald,Mark McCarthy,Ezequiel Texido,Dalila Polack,Christopher Zapp,Emmanuel Quarshi,Abdi Hersi,Justin MacDermott,Tsion Tadesse Abebe,Asma Saeed,Kristina Mejo,Hind Kinani,Tanja Dedovic,Irene Pasini,Amr Taha,Stefanie Alleman,Peter Broomfield,Ivona Zakoska-Todorovska,Itayi Viriri,Nari Shim,Damien Jusselme,Hind Aissaoui Bennani,Sarah Carl and Elisa TsakiriChapter 4:Migration research and analysis:Recent United Nations contributionsMain contributors:Pablo Rojas Coppari and Marie McAuliffeResearch assistant:Cristina SchaverChapter 5:The Great Disrupter:COVID-19s impact on migration,mobility and migrants globallyAuthors:Marie McAuliffe,Luisa Feline Freier,Ronald Skeldon and Jenna BlowerResearch Assistants:Ben Brindle and Taehoon LeeChapter 6:Peace and security as drivers of stability,development and safe migrationAuthors:Adrian Kitimbo,Amanda Lucey and Mehari Taddele MaruResearch Assistant:Ben Brindle Chapter 7:International migration as a stepladder of opportunity:What do the global data actually show?Authors:Marie McAuliffe,Guy Abel,Linda Oucho and Adam SawyerChapter 8:Disinformation about migration:An age-old issue with new tech dimensionsAuthors:Eileen Culloty,Jane Suiter,Itayi Viriri and Sara CretaChapter 9:Migration and the slow-onset impacts of climate change:Taking stock and taking actionAuthors:Mariam Traore Chazalnol and Alex RandallResearch Assistants:Iulia Duca and Tran Hieu Hanh HoangChapter 10:Human trafficking in migration pathways:Trends,challenges and new forms of cooperation Authors:Cline Bauloz,Marika McAdam and Joseph TeyeResearch Assistant:Josiane Matar and Jenna BlowervWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Chapter 11:Artificial intelligence,migration and mobility:Implications for policy and practiceAuthors:Ana Beduschi and Marie McAuliffe Research Assistant:Josiane MatarChapter 12:Reflections on migrants contributions in an era of increasing disruption and disinformation“REPEAT”Authors:Marie McAuliffe,Adrian Kitimbo and Binod KhadriaResearch Assistant:Michelle NguyenPhotographsChapter 1Fadmou holds her baby girl as she waits in a clinic in Hargeisa,Somalia.IOM 2020/Muse MohammedPart IThe Shahrak Sabz internally displaced person(IDP)settlement in Afghanistan was established in 2018 by IDPs fleeing drought.Upwards of 30,000 IDPs now live in the area as of February 2021.IOM 2021/Muse MohammedChapter 2Many of the more than 300,000 Venezuelan refugees and migrants who cross the border of Ecuador and Colombia pass through this border point in Ipiales,Colombia.Others embark on trochas,or informal and more dangerous routes,in rural areas through mountains and across rivers to enter Ecuador.IOM 2019/Muse MohammedChapter 3In the context of reintegration activities 355 returning migrants have received vocational training and have been accompanied in the creation of microenterprises or in the search for a job or work experience in Burkina Faso.IOM 2018/Alexander BeeChapter 4Front-line worker at the IOM Point of Entry health screening point in Chanika,United Republic of Tanzania.IOM 2019/Muse MohammedPart IIEmpty Geneva airport during COVID-19.IOM 2021/Pegah GuillotChapter 5Jamila is a nurse at one of IOMs e Centres in Coxs Bazar.The facility has been converted to an Isolation Centre for suspected cases of COVID-19.Together with a team of trained doctors,nurses and midwives,Jamila is part of the front-line responders to COVID-19 in the camp.IOM 2020/Nate WebbviWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Chapter 6The French photojournalist of Iranian origin Reza Deghati led a three-day photography training workshop in Abidjan,Cte dIvoire.The training was aimed at migrants returning to their country after experiencing difficult journeys abroad.Six young photographers also participated in the training.After learning the technical aspects of photography,the participants put their new skills into practice by attending reintegration and recreation activities organized by IOM for returnees and community members.IOM 2019/Mohamed Aly DiabateChapter 7Exit from Metro Station,Moscow.More than 90 per cent of all the streets of this city are cleaned by labour migrant who live in basements.Most of them receive only one third of the salary wages for which they are promised in related documents.Street cleaners are the subjects of frequent attacks by nationalists.IOM 2018/Elyor NematovChapter 8“Loharano”is the project launched by IOM and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Madagascar,in order to engage the Madagascan diaspora in the economic development of Madagascar.This image was taken in one of the classrooms where volunteers give computer lessons.IOM 2019/Natalie OrenChapter 9Islanders bid farewell to IOM staff as they leave the Carteret Islands.IOM 2016/Muse MohammedChapter 10Minors at the TAS centre in Bossaso are all Ethiopian unaccompanied children.They were tricked by smugglers to come to Somalia hoping to get to the Gulf but have been abandoned on the road after their money was taken away.IOM,UNICEF and local partner TAS provide shelter and assistance to them while they await family reunification.IOM 2020/Muse MohammedChapter 11Real feelings.Coralie Vogelaar 2020Chapter 12Robeiro,an ex-combatant from an illegal paramilitary group in Colombia,carries the harvested chili peppers.Robeiro is one of 300 beneficiaries of an income generation project implemented by IOM Colombia.IOM 2009/Diego SamoraAppendicesDaniela who is staying at Albergue Sol de Pastos a transit centre in Ipiales,Colombia before she travels onward to Ecuador.IOM and other agencies provide shelter,medical and psychosocial assistance,food and other services at this transit centre.IOM 2019/Angela WellsReferencesNour Abdi Garaad is a Somali returnee in Burco who has now set up his own shop in the centre town selling garments.IOM 2020/Muse MohammedviiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Table of contentsEditorial,review and production team.iiiAcknowledgements.iiiContributors.ivPhotographs.vList of figures and tables.viiiList of appendices.xiForeword.xiiChapter 1 Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futures.1Part I:Key data and information on migration and migrants.18Chapter 2 Migration and migrants:A global overview.21Chapter 3 Migration and migrants:Regional dimensions and developments.59Chapter 4 Migration research and analysis:Recent United Nations contributions.129Part II:Complex and emerging migration issues.148Chapter 5 The Great Disrupter:COVID-19s impact on migration,mobility and migrants globally.151Chapter 6 Peace and security as drivers of stability,development and safe migration.173Chapter 7 International Migration as a stepladder of opportunity:What do the global data actually show?.191Chapter 8 Disinformation about migration:An age-old issue with new tech dimensions.217Chapter 9 Migration and the slow-onset impacts of climate change:Taking stock and taking action.233Chapter 10 Human trafficking in migration pathways:Trends,challenges and new forms of cooperation.255Chapter 11 Artificial Intelligence,migration and mobility:Implications for policy and practice.281Chapter 12 Reflections on migrants contributions in an era of increasing disruption and disinformation.301Appendices.307References.391viiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022List of figures and tables Chapter 1Table 1.Key facts and figures on IOM(1951,2016 and 2021).9Table 2.Key facts and figures from World Migration Reports 2000 and 2022.10Chapter 2Table 1.International migrants,19702020.23Figure 1.International migrants,by major region of residence,20052020(millions).24Figure 2.Top 20 destinations(left)and origins(right)of international migrants in 2020(millions).25Figure 3.Top 20 international migration country-to-country corridors,2020.27Figure 4.International migrants,by sex,20002020.28Figure 5.Inflows of foreign nationals into OECD countries,permanent migration,20002018(millions).30Figure 6.Migrant deaths by region,20142020.31Figure 7.COVID-19-related travel controls:International and internal,January 2020June 2021,all countries.33Figure 8.COVID-19-related international travel measures:March 2020June 2021,all countries.34Figure 9.Air passengers carried globally,19452020.35Figure 10.Migrant workers by destination country income level,2013,2017 and 2019.36Table 2.International migrant workers,by sex and income level of destination country,2019.37Figure 11.Geographic distribution of migrant workers by sex(millions),2019.38Figure 12.International remittance flows to low-and middle-income countries(19902020).40Table 3.Top 10 countries receiving/sending international remittances(20052020)(current USD billion).41Figure 13.Top 20 recipient countries/territories of international remittances by total in USD billion(left)and share of GDP(right),20192020.42Figure 14.Top 20 sending countries/territories of international remittances by total in USD billion(left)and share of GDP(right),20192020.43Figure 15.Number of refugees by top five countries of origin,20052020(millions).46Figure 16.Number of refugees by top five host countries as of 2020(millions).46Figure 17.Number of refugees resettled by major resettlement countries in 20052020.47Table 4.Number of refugees needing resettlement and number of refugees resettled globally,from 2005.48Figure 18.Top 20 countries with the largest populations of internally displaced persons by conflict and violence at the end of 2020(millions).51Figure 19.Conflict displacements(top)and disaster displacements(bottom)in 2020 by location.53Figure 20.New internal displacements due to conflict and disasters,20102020(millions).54Chapter 3Figure 1.Migrants to,within and from Africa,19902020.61Figure 2.Top 20 African migrant countries,2020.62Figure 3.COVID-19-related travel controls in Africa:International and internal,January 2020 to June 2021.63Figure 4.COVID-19-related international travel measures in Africa:March 2020 to June 2021.64Figure 5.Top African international remittance recipient and source countries,2019 and 2020.65Figure 6.Top 10 African countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2020.66Figure 7.Top 20 African countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2020.67Figure 8.Migrants to,within and from Asia,19902020.74Figure 9.Top 20 Asian migrant countries/territories,2020.75Figure 10.COVID-19-related travel controls in Asia:International and internal,January 2020 to June 2021.76ixWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Figure 11.COVID-19-related international travel measures in Asia:March 2020 to June 2021.77Figure 12.Top Asian international remittance recipient and source countries,2019 and 2020.78Figure 13.Top 10 Asian countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2020.79Figure 14.Top 20 Asian countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2020.80Figure 15.Migrants to,within and from Europe,19902020.88Figure 16.Top 20 European migrant countries,2020.89Figure 17.COVID-19-related travel controls in Europe:International and internal,January 2020 to June 2021.90Figure 18.COVID-19-related international travel measures in Europe:March 2020 to June 2021.91Figure 19.Top 20 European international remittance recipient and source countries,2019 and 2020.92Figure 20.Top 10 European countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2020.93Figure 21.Top 20 European countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2020.94Figure 22.Migrants to,within and from Latin America and the Caribbean,19902020.99Figure 23.Top Latin America and Caribbean migrant countries,2020.100Figure 24.COVID-19-related travel controls in Latin America and the Caribbean:International and internal,January 2020 to June 2021.101Figure 25.COVID-19-related international travel measures in Latin America and the Caribbean:March 2020 to June 2021.102Figure 26.Top remittance recipient and source countries in Latin America and the Caribbean,2019 and 2020.103Figure 27.Top 10 Latin America and Caribbean countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2020.104Figure 28.Top Latin and Caribbean countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2020.105Figure 29.Migrants to,within and from North America,19902020.109Figure 30.Main migration countries in Northern America,2020.110Figure 31.COVID-19-related travel controls in Northern America:International and internal,January 2020 to June 2021.111Figure 32.COVID-19-related international travel measures in Northern America:March 2020 to June 2021.112Figure 33.Remittance recipient and source countries in Northern America,2019 and 2020.113Figure 34.Number of refugees and asylum seekers in and from Northern American countries,2020.113Figure 35.Northern American countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2020.114Figure 36.Migrants to,within and from Oceania,19902020.117Figure 37.Main migration countries in Oceania,2020.118Figure 38.COVID-19-related travel controls in Oceania:International and internal,January 2020 to June 2021.119Figure 39.COVID-19-related international travel measures in Oceania:March 2020 to June 2021.120Figure 40.Top international remittance recipient and source countries in Oceania,2019 and 2020.121Figure 41.Numbers of refugees and asylum seekers in and from Oceania countries,2020.121Figure 42.Top countries in Oceania by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2020.122Chapter 4Table 1.Strengths and weaknesses of academic and non-academic research.130Table 2.United Nations Network on Migration members,including Executive Committee members.133Table 3.Examples of key global material published from 2019 until June 2021.142Chapter 5Figure 1.COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths by United Nations region after one year.152Figure 2.Air transport passengers carried,1980 to 2018.155Figure 3.Government responses to minimize COVID-19 transmission,by number of countries.157xWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Figure 4.Government responses to minimize COVID-19 transmission in Africa,Asia,Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean,by number of countries.158Figure 5.Air passengers carried globally,19452020.160Table 1.Impacts of COVID-19 throughout the migration cycle.161Chapter 6Table 1.Global peace,State fragility,human development and displacement(selected countries).179Figure 1.Remittances,foreign direct investment(FDI)and official development assistance(ODA)flows to low-and middle-income countries,19902020.186Chapter 7Figure 1.International migrants by region 1990 to 2019:Migrants to,migrants within and migrants from Europe,and Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC).192Table 1.Human development,fragility and passport rankings for selected countries.195Figure 2.A model of the mechanisms that produce migration.196Figure 3.Mobility transition.198Figure 4.Emigration prevalence,1960 to 2019.199Table 2.Immigrants by United Nations region,1995 and 2020.201Table 3.Top 20 countries of origin and destination,by number(millions)and proportion of total population.202Figure 5.Immigrants and emigrants by Human Development Index country category,2020.204Figure 6.Association between Human Development Index scores and immigrant/emigrant stocks,2005.204Table 4.Number of countries in HDI classifications,1995 to 2019.205Figure 7.Migrants to,between and from each of the four HDI categories(low,medium,high and very high),19952020.207Figure 8.Schengen area member States.210Figure 9.Migration between very high HDI countries.211Figure 10.ECOWAS member States.212Figure 11.Migration between low HDI countries.213Chapter 8Figure 1.The online disinformation process.222Figure 2.Debunking Steps.227Chapter 10Figure 1.The three cumulative elements of trafficking in persons as defined in Article 3(a)of the Trafficking Protocol.257Figure 2.Percentage of detected victims by type of trafficking flows and subregions,2018(or most recently available).265Figure 3.Number of detected trafficking victims,by form of exploitation and region of detection,2018.266Figure 4.Percentage of identified victims,by exploitation sector and intra-/inter-subregional trafficking.267Figure 5.Criminal justice funnel for trafficking cases and main challenges.271Figure 6.Main components of the right to an effective remedy for victims of trafficking.273Chapter 11Figure 1.Artificial Intelligence and the migration cycle.284xiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022List of appendices Chapter 1Appendix A.The International Organization for Migration:70th anniversary.307Appendix B.Highlighting the work of IOMs regional offices during the Organizations 70th anniversary.311Chapter 2Appendix A.Abridged extract:Final Report on Conceptual Frameworks and Concepts and Definitions on International Migration(27 April 2021).341Chapter 3Appendix A.United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:Regions and Subregions.344Chapter 4Appendix A.Chart of the United Nations System.349Appendix B.Summary of the United Nations Compacts and Network on Migration process timelines.350Chapter 5Appendix A.351Appendix B.352Chapter 6Appendix A.Trends and drivers of conflict.371Appendix B.UN documents for peacebuilding:Secretary-Generals reports.373Chapter 7Appendix A.Opportunity,migration and the Human Development Index.374Appendix B.How I ended up in a scientific spat about migration figures and what I learned from it.375Appendix C.378Chapter 9Appendix A.Key definitions.379Appendix B.Additional United Nations policy initiatives related to slow-onset events and migration.380Chapter 10Appendix A.Ratification status of international instruments relevant to migration.382Appendix B.Forms of exploitation captured in regional instruments.383Appendix C.Inter-State consultation mechanisms relevant to human trafficking.384Chapter 11Appendix A.Definitions of AI.386Appendix B.AI usage in different sectors.388xiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022ForewordHuman migration and mobility may well be age-old phenomena touching almost every society around the world.However,they have changed over time in important ways.Examining these shifts in scale,direction,demography and frequency can help us understand how migration is evolving,and can inform effective policies,programmes and operational responses on the ground.The current United Nations global estimate is that there were around 281 million international migrants in the world in 2020,which equates to 3.6 per cent of the global population.This is a small minority of the worlds population,meaning that staying within ones country of birth remains,overwhelmingly,the norm.The great majority of people do not migrate across borders;much larger numbers migrate within countries,although we have seen this slow over the past two years as COVID-19 related immobility has gripped communities everywhere.The COVID-19 pandemic has also highlighted the interconnections between migration and mobility,with COVID-19 travel restrictions resulting in hundreds of millions of people being unable to travel for months on end,and leaving many thousands of migrants stranded and in need of assistance.Migration is a complex issue.As such,it is one that can be exacerbated by misinformation and politicization to alarming degrees.The central aim of the flagship World Migration Report is to set out in clear and accurate terms the changes occurring in migration and mobility globally so that readers can better situate their own work.As the United Nations migration agency,IOM has an obligation to demystify the complexity and diversity of human mobility.The report also acknowledges IOMs continuing obligation to uphold fundamental rights and its mission to support those migrants who are most in need.This is particularly relevant in the areas in which IOM works to provide humanitarian assistance to people who have been displaced,including by weather events,conflict and persecution,or to those who have become stranded during crises,such as COVID-19.Likewise,IOM remains committed to supporting Member States as they draw upon various forms of data,research and analysis during policy formulation and review processes.Indeed,this is reflected in IOMs Constitution where the need for migration research is highlighted as an integral part of the Organizations functions.The World Migration Report is a flagship component of this important area of work.That said,we also know that the key features of migration vary across different locations,and that specific audiences(such as policy officials,practitioners,media,researchers,teachers and students)have varying information and analytical needs when using this report to inform their work.So,in addition to the presentation of key global and regional migration data and trends as well as salient thematic issues,this World Migration Report is supplemented by a range of digital tools ensuring that the report does not remain on the“virtual shelf”.I am proud to report that the World Migration Report editorial team won recognition in two categories of the International Annual Report Design Awards 2021,in both the online and pdf categories,for the 2020 edition of the report.Spurred on by this success,IOM has expanded the array of report materials for a digital age.The new online interactive platform allows users to explore and interact with key data in a highly visual and engaging way.This is supplemented by the online educators toolkit to support teachers around the world as they seek to provide balanced,accurate and interesting learning materials on the fundamentals of migration and migrants for teenagers and young adults.xiiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022The rise and rise of disinformation about migration has meant that the World Migration Report has become a key source for fact-checkers around the world,helping to refute false news on migration in a wide variety of places.To assist fact-checkers,we have developed a simple toolkit to help bust key myths on migration.We are also working with partners on the development of a digital policy officials toolkit to assist them in utilizing its contents in a wide range of policy-related settings.We are cognizant that many,including Member States officials,need outputs and materials in their own official language(s).Language translation is a meaningful,practical and cost-effective way of supporting development and technical capacity-building for those working in migration around the world.We are pleased that donors agree:the 2020 edition of the World Migration Report was available for the first time in all six United Nations languages(Arabic,Chinese,English,French,Russian and Spanish),with key chapters also translated into German,Portuguese,Swahili and Turkish.Our aim,with the support of donors from all sectors,is to increase our linguistic reach even further for this current edition.Extending the utility and reach of our flagship report is a particularly gratifying aspect of the evolution of the Organizations role and contribution to migration discourse globally.On this,our 70th anniversary,it is important to reflect upon the ongoing need for IOMs strong operational capabilities to support humanitarian response and leverage migration programmatic expertise.However,what some readers may not realize is that IOM has been one of the longest standing supporters and producers of migration research and analysis,establishing the first scientific journal on international migration in 1961,and commencing the World Migration Report more than two decades ago.In this era of heightened interest in and activity towards migration and migrants,we hope this 2022 edition of the World Migration Report and its related tools become key resources for you.We hope they help you to navigate this high-profile and dynamic topic during periods of uncertainty,and that the report prompts reflection during quieter moments.But most importantly,we hope that you learn something new from the report that can inform your own work,be it in studies,research and analysis,policymaking,communication or migration practice.Antnio VitorinoDirector GeneralMARIE MCAULIFFEANNA TRIANDAFYLLIDOU1WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 20221REPORT OVERVIEW:TECHNOLOGICAL,GEOPOLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRANSFORMATIONS SHAPING OUR MIGRATION AND MOBILITY FUTURES1 IntroductionThe last two years,since the release of the World Migration Report 2020 on 28 November 2019 around three weeks before COVID-19 was initially detected have been unlike anything we could have imagined.It has not been business as usual.We therefore cannot make the standard,but nevertheless truthful observations about the tremendous benefits that migration brings to the world,about best practices for safe and well-managed migration,and about how crises combined with misinformation can risk diverting our attention and lead to migration being used as a political weapon.2 While these observations remain valid,the most severe pandemic in over a century has laid bare some other“home truths”.Innovation,ingenuity,skill,compassion,resilience and hope have been witnessed time and again in responding to this global health crisis.Yet there is a sense that some of the core values underpinning a well-functioning system of global governance3 were at times reduced to rhetoric or fodder for political“announceables”.Values such as equality,sustainability,cooperation,collaboration,tolerance and inclusion were,at times,set aside by political and industry leaders under pressure to respond to the pandemic in a hyper-competitive international arena.Unsurprisingly,some of those reflecting on COVID-19 impacts have called for the return to a holistic understanding of the world and the place that humans occupy in it.4It is within this context that this World Migration Report focuses on developments in migration over the last two-year period,with an emphasis on providing analysis that takes into account historical and contemporary factors historical in recognition that migration and displacement occur within broader long-term social,security,political and economic contexts;contemporary in recognition that we are still in many ways grappling with a significant global upheaval caused by a severe pandemic that has tested even the most resilient systems,countries,communities and people.While acknowledging that we will continue to experience the systemic effects of COVID-19 for many years to come,this World Migration Report 2022 offers an initial exploration of current data and other evidence to answer the key question,“How has COVID-19 altered migration and mobility for people around the world?”Yet it also answers many other questions beyond a COVID-19 focus,including on important topics such as the links between peace and migration,on disinformation on migration,on countering human trafficking in migration pathways and on climate change impacts.1 Marie McAuliffe,Head,Migration Research and Publications Division,IOM;Anna Triandafyllidou,Canada Excellence Research Chair in Migration and Integration,Ryerson University.2 See Chapter 1 of the World Migration Report 2020 for discussion of these issues.3 See,for example,UN,2015.4 Gardini,2020.2Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresWhat has happened in migration?A great deal has happened in migration in the last two years since the release of the last World Migration Report in late 2019.The COVID-19 global pandemic arrived at a time of heightened uncertainty brought about by fundamental changes in technology,adding tremendous complexity and anxiety to a world that was already experiencing significant transformations.5COVID-19 has radically altered mobility around the world,and while there were initial expectations and hope that the pandemic would be limited to 2020,virus strains,waves of infection and vaccination programming issues have seen the pandemic continue through 2021.COVID-19 has become a truly seismic global event,testing the resilience of countries,communities,systems and sectors.By the end of the first year of the pandemic,116.2million cases of COVID-19 had been recorded globally,while 2.58million people had died.6 In mobility terms,108,000 international COVID-19-related travel restrictions had been imposed globally.7 Air passenger numbers dropped by 60 per cent in 2020(1.8billion)compared with 2019(4.5billion),evidence of the massive decline in mobility globally.8 Chapter 5 of this report provides analysis of COVID-19 impacts on migration,mobility and migrants during the first year of the pandemic.The last two years also saw major migration and displacement events;events that have caused great hardship and trauma,as well as loss of life.Foremost have been the displacements ofmillions of people due to conflict(such as within and from the Syrian Arab Republic,Yemen,the Central African Republic,the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan),or severe economic and political instability(such as that faced bymillions of Venezuelans and Afghans).There have also been large-scale displacements triggered by climate-and weather-related disasters in many parts of the world in 2020 and 2021,including in China,the Philippines,Bangladesh,India,the United States of America and Haiti.9We have also seen the scale of international migration increase,although at a reduced rate due to COVID-19.The number of international migrants was estimated to be almost 281million globally in 2020,with nearly two thirds being labour migrants.10 This figure remains a very small percentage of the worlds population(at 3.6%),meaning that the vast majority of people globally(96.4%)were estimated to be residing in the country in which they were born.However,the estimated number and proportion of international migrants for 2020 was lower,by around 2million,than they otherwise would have been,due to COVID-19.11 It is likely that the longer international mobility restrictions remain in place in many parts of the world,the weaker the growth will be in the number of international migrants in future years.Long-term data on international migration have taught us that migration is not uniform across the world,but is shaped by economic,geographic,demographic and other factors,resulting in distinct migration patterns,such as migration“corridors”being developed over many years(see Chapter 2 of this report for details).The largest corridors tend to be from developing countries to larger economies,such as those of the United States,the United Arab Emirates,Saudi Arabia and Germany;large corridors can also reflect protracted conflict and related displacement,such as from the Syrian Arab Republic to Turkey(the second largest corridor in the world).While many long-term corridors are likely to continue to feature in the immediate future,COVID-19 has shed light on the intensification of digitalization and the potential for greater automation of work around the world that is likely to affect key labour migration corridors(see discussion below).5 See Chapter 1 of the World Migration Report 2020 for discussion.6 WHO,2021.7 IOM,2021a(as at 8 March 2021).8 ICAO,2021.9 IDMC,2021.10 UN DESA,2021;ILO,2021.11 UN DESA,2021.3WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022International migrants(a)Key migration data at a glance281millionUSD702billioninternational migrants globally in 2020,or 3.6 per cent of the worlds populationin international remittances globally in 2020.Although international remittances declined due to COVID-19,the actual decline(2.4%)was much less than initially projected(20%)Up from 272million(or 3.5%)in 2019Down from USD 719billion in 2019International remittances(d)Females(a)135million international female migrants globally in 2020,or 3.5 per cent of the worlds female populationUp from 130million(or 3.4%)in 2019Males(a)146million international male migrants globally in 2020,or 3.7 per cent of the worlds male population Up from 141million(or 3.6%)in 2019Labour migrants(b)169million migrant workers globally in 2019Up from 164million globally in 2017Missing migrants(c)Around 3,900 dead and missing globally in 2020Down from almost 5,400 in 2019Low-and middle-income countries(d)USD 540billion in international remittances was received by low-and middle-income countries in 2020Down from USD548billion in 20194Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresDisplaced personsMobility89.4millionpeople were living in displacement globally at the end of 2020(includes refugees,asylum seekers,displaced Venezuelans and IDPs)Mobility was restricted by COVID-19,but internal displacement events increasedUp from 84.8million in 2019Refugees(e)26.4million refugees globally in 2020Up from 26million in 2019Asylum seekers(e)4.1million asylum seekers globally in 2020Down from 4.2million in 2019Displaced Venezuelans(e)3.9million Venezuelans displaced globally in 2020(not including those who were refugees or asylum seekers)Up from 3.6million in 2019Internally displaced persons(IDPs)(f)55million IDPs globally in 2020:48million due to conflict and violence;7million due to disastersUp from 51 million in 2019COVID-19 restrictions(g)108,000 COVID-19 travel restrictions globally in the first year of the pandemicNew restrictions;nil in 2019.Global air passengers(h)1.8billion air passengers globally in 2020(international and domestic passengers)Major decline from 4.5billion in 2019Internal displacement events(disaster)(f)Internal disaster displacement events were 30.7million globally in 2020Significantly up from 24.9million in 2019Internal displacement events(conflict)(f)Internal conflict and violence displacement events were 9.8million globally in 2020Up from 8.6 million in 2019Note:See Chapter 2 for elaboration and discussion.Sources:(a)UN DESA,2021;(b)ILO,2021;(c)IOM,n.d.a;(d)Ratha et al.,2021;(e)UNHCR,2021;(f)IDMC,2021;(g)IOM,2021a;(h)ICAO,2021.5WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping migration and mobilityThe unprecedented pace of change during recent years in geopolitical,environmental and technological spheres has led some analysts and commentators to coin or use phrases such as the“age of accelerations”,12 the“fourth industrial revolution”13 and the“age of change”.14 More recently,COVID-19 has amplified the sense of uncertainty brought about during momentous change,while also physically grounding much of the world for extended periods of time.The pandemic has required resilience,while also offering the opportunity to reflect on our collective futures.Similar to other international phenomena,migration has historically been affected by seismic geopolitical events,such as the two world wars,the Cold War,and large terrorist attacks(such as 9/11),which can mark“turning points”in migration governance,as well as in broader discourse and sentiment.15 The COVID-19 pandemic is the latest seismic geopolitical event,stemming from a global health emergency and,while by no means over,it has already had profound impacts on migration and mobility globally.Existing knowledge,evidence and analyses allow us to place new information on COVID-19 within a frame of reference as new data come to light.Rather than looking only at the here and now,we need to be understanding change in terms of longer-term migration patterns and processes.The significance and implications of COVID-19 can only be sufficiently understood and articulated when contextualized and rooted in current knowledge of migration.16It is also important to place migration and mobility within broader systemic change processes that act to determine,shape and impede responses by governments(at different levels)and non-State actors(e.g.civil society,industry,citizens).Key technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations are particularly relevant and help us to understand better the strategic issues shaping the context in which people migrate,States formulate and implement policy,and a wide range of State and non-State actors collaborate and cooperate on migration and mobility research,policy and practice.Technological transformationsTechnological advances since 2005 resulting in the so-called“fourth industrial revolution”are profoundly changing how social,political and economic systems operate globally.17 We have been witnessing the rising power of“big tech”,the increasing production capability for self-publishing of misinformation and disinformation,the race by businesses to“digitalize or perish”,the massive increase in data being produced(mainly through user-generated interactions)resulting in increasing“datafication”of human interactions,and the rapid development and roll-out of artificial intelligence(AI)capabilities within business and governments sectors.18 Digital technology is becoming increasingly crucial throughout migration.People are able to gather information and advice in real time during migration journeys,an issue that has raised interest and,at times,concern.The use of apps to share information and connect geographically dispersed groups has raised valid questions concerning the extent 12 Friedman,2016.13 Schwab,2016.14 Mauldin,2018.15 Faist,2004;McAuliffe and Goossens,2018;Newland et al.,2019.16 McAuliffe et al.,2020.17 Friedman,2016;Schwab,2016;Triandafyllidou,2018.18 Desjardins,2019;Hirsh-Pasek et al.,2018;McAuliffe,2021;Skog et al.,2018;Zuboff,2019.6Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresto which digital technology has been used to support irregular migration,as well as to enable migrants to avoid abusive and exploitative migrant smugglers and human traffickers.19 Migrants have also developed applications to support better integration in receiving countries,while maintaining social links and financial support to their families and societies back home,including through the increasing prevalence of“mobile money”apps.20 More recently,we have seen migrants develop online chatbots using machine-learning technologies to provide psychological support,as well as to help navigate complex migration policy and visa processing requirements,although digital capture in various migration systems of an increasing amount of personal information is raising concerns about privacy and other human rights issues(see Chapter 11 of this report).Other connections between migration and technology are also emerging in migration debates.As artificial intelligence technologies are progressively taken up in key sectors,their broader consequences for migrant worker demand and domestic labour markets are areas of intense focus for policymakers and businesses in both origin and receiving countries.21 Recent discussions have also turned to blockchain technology and its consequences for migration,especially for international remittances,but also for digital identities and global mobility.22 Social media technology is also increasingly impacting the politics of migration,with a surge of far-right activism on social media platforms seeking to influence public debates and ultimately political decisions(see Chapter 8 of this report).Profound technological change was deepening before COVID-19,but has significantly intensified during the pandemic,meaning that deep digitalization of an already digitalizing world will be one of the most significant long-term effects of COVID-19.Shaping migration and mobility systems to reduce the impacts of inequality in a world that is suffering multiple“digital divides”23 will be particularly important in ensuring implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and other multilateral agreements.Geopolitical transformationsIncreased competition between States is resulting in heightened geopolitical tension and risking the erosion of multilateral cooperation.Economic,political and military power has radically shifted in the last two decades,with power now more evenly distributed in the international system.24 As a result,there is rising geopolitical competition,especially among global powers,often played out via proxies.The environment of intensifying competition between key States and involving a larger number of States is undermining international cooperation through multilateral mechanisms,such as those of the United Nations.25 We are living in a period in which the core values underpinning global governance are being challenged.The values of equity,accountability,impartiality,fairness,justice and probity are being actively undermined,as some political leaders disregard common interest in preference for personal interest even if it corrodes laws,processes and institutions that have,overall,sought to advance whole nations and peoples,without excluding or expelling some because of their inherent characteristics or beliefs.26 Ongoing and systematic corrosion,as we have witnessed throughout history,can extend to attacks on human rights and ultimately on groups of people within societies.2719 McAuliffe,2016;Sanchez,2018.20 Kitimbo,2021.21 Hertog,2019;McAuliffe,2018.22 Latonero et al.,2019;Juskalian,2018.23“Digital divides”refers to unequal access of digital technology along economic,geographic,demographic and gender lines.See ITU,2020.24 Menon,2015.25 Natalegawa,2020.26 Fotaki,2014.27 Rawnsley,2018.7WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022In rebalancing the geopolitical debate and arguing for the profound benefits of the multilateral system,many States and the United Nations have actively progressed a number of key initiatives to deliver improved conditions for communities globally,most especially for those most in need.Despite the challenges of a geopolitically charged competition,some progress has been made towards achieving the SDGs,28 as well as on the specific issues of migration and displacement via the two Global Compacts for migration and on refugees.29 On the eve of the 2022 International Migration Review Forum the primary intergovernmental platform on the implementation of the Global Compact for Migration,including as it relates to the SDGs preparations are well under way,with a series of regional review processes having already been finalized across 2020 and 2021.30 A rallying cry has also been made recently by the United Nations Secretary-General in his 2021 report Our Common Agenda on bolstering support for multilateralism in an increasingly complex,competitive and uncertain world.31 Our Common Agenda outlines the United Nations actions that are designed to strengthen and accelerate multilateral agreements(including the SDGs)and make a tangible,positive difference in peoples lives around the world.Environmental transformationsThe intensification of ecologically negative human activity is resulting in overconsumption and overproduction linked to unsustainable economic growth,resource depletion and biodiversity collapse,as well as ongoing climate change.Broadly grouped under the heading of“human supremacy”,there is growing recognition of the extremely negative consequences of human activities that are not preserving the planets ecological systems.In several key areas,analysts report that the world is at or nearing“breaking point”,including on climate change,biodiversity collapse and mass extinction of thousands of species,32 while pollution is at record levels,altering ecosystems globally.33 COVID-19 has dampened human activity in key spheres(e.g.transportation/travel,construction,hospitality)enabling a mini environmental recovery,34 as well as a space to reflect on the ability of humans to achieve extraordinary things during times of crisis.However,there is a strong sense that this is merely a pause and that human activity will rebound once the pandemic is over,wiping out the pandemic-related benefits.35 The implications for migration and displacement are significant,as people increasingly turn to internal and international migration as a means of adaptation to environmental impacts(see Chapter 9 of the World Migration Report 2020),or face displacement from their homes and communities due to slow-onset impacts of climate change(see Chapter 9 of this report)or experience displacement as a result of acute disaster events(see Chapters 2 and 3 of this report).28 UN,2021a.This 2021 progress report documents SDG progress,but also highlights how COVID-19 has resulted in major setbacks.29 Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration;Global Compact on Refugees.30 UNNM,2021.31 UN,2021b.32 UNEP,2020a.33 UNEP,2020b.34 Arora et al.,2020.35 Freire-Gonzlez and Vivanco,2020.8Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresThrough the years:IOM marks its 70th anniversaryThe year 2021 marks the 70th anniversary of IOM,providing the opportunity to reflect on the Organization and its work,especially since 2016 when it entered into the United Nations system as a related agency.IOM is the leading intergovernmental organization promoting(since 1951)humane and orderly migration for the benefit of all,with 174 Member States and a presence in over 100 countries.Initially established as the Provisional Intergovernmental Committee for the Movement of Migrants from Europe(PICMME)in 1951,its role was carved out of the chaos and displacement of Western Europe following the Second World War(see text box below on IOMs early years).IOM in its early yearsMandated to help European governments to identify resettlement countries for the estimated 11million people uprooted by the Second World War,IOM(or PICMME,as it was known then)arranged transport for nearly amillion migrants during the 1950s.A succession of name changes from PICMME to the Intergovernmental Committee for European Migration(ICEM)in 1952,to the Intergovernmental Committee for Migration(ICM)in 1980 to the International Organization for Migration(IOM)in 1989,reflects the Organizations transition over the course of half a century from logistics agency to migration agency.While IOMs history tracks the human-induced and natural disasters of the past half century Hungary 1956,Czechoslovakia 1968,Chile 1973,the Vietnamese boat people 1975,Kuwait 1990 and the Asian tsunami and Pakistan earthquake of 2004/2005 its credo that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society has steadily gained international acceptance.From its roots as an operational logistics agency,it has broadened its scope to become the leading international agency working with governments and civil society to advance the understanding of migration issues,encourage social and economic development through migration,and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants.Source:IOM,2021b.Over time,IOMs role and responsibilities have expanded considerably in line with the growing salience of migration as a key issue in governance at the international,regional,national and subnational levels.36 What started as a focus on logistics in support of resettling people displaced by conflict has expanded to cover a wide range issues,as outlined in IOMs Constitution and as shown in Table 1 below.37 Further information on how IOM has evolved as an organization,especially since 2016,is in Appendix A.3836 Martin,2014.37 IOM,2020a.38 Note that at the time of writing IOMs Headquarters in Geneva was undergoing a restructure.For information about IOMs organizational structure,please visit www.iom.int/.9WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Table 1.Key facts and figures on IOM(1951,2016 and 2021)195120162021Number of Member States 23*166174Number of Observer States 68Number of field locations worldwide 18*408450*Number of staff(excluding consultants)352*1018416257*Number of nationalities represented in staff 19*163172*Breakdown between female()and male()staff 4764 and 5420(47%and 53%)7640 and 8614*(47%and 53%)*Total combined revenue for the year(i.e.assessed and voluntary contributions)USD26.1million*USD1615.6millionUSD2182.7million*Note:means data for that year are not available.*This corresponds to the number of participating States prior to the entry into force of the Constitution on 30 April 1954.*Figures in the 1951 column marked with a double asterisk are based on the year 1952.Figures in the 2021 column marked with a double asterisk are as of 31 December 2020.Sources:Progress Report of the Director General covering the period 1 June 1952 to 31 August 1952,PIC/70,18 September 1952;Financial Statements,including report of the external auditors,covering the period 1 February to 31 December 1952,MC/8,27 March 1953;Financial Report for the Year Ended 31 December 2016,C/108/3,18 May 2017;IOM Snapshot 2021;Observer States,as of April 2021;Financial Report for the Year Ended 31 December 2020,C/112/3,31 May 2021;and Annual Report for 2020,C/112/INF/1,25 June 2021.As can be seen from Table 1,IOMs presence around the world has grown over time,in part a reflection of the increased focus on migration governance,but also due to the unfortunate reality concerning the growth in internal displacement and the humanitarian and other support needed by some migrant populations.As outlined in Chapters 2 and 3 of this report,the long-term trends regarding migration and displacement vary according to a range of factors,including geography.IOMs regional offices therefore often reflect the regional dynamics associated with migration and displacement trends,and events over time.What this means in practice is that while the United Nations refers to six geographic regions(see Appendix A in Chapter 3 for regional compositions),IOM has nine geographic regions:East and Horn of Africa;West and Central Africa;Southern Africa;Middle East and North Africa;Asia and the Pacific;South-Eastern Europe,Eastern Europe and Central Asia;European Economic Area,the European Union and NATO;South America;Central America,North America and the Caribbean.The core of the work in all of the regional offices(and Headquarters)reflects IOMs Strategic Vision,39 adopted in 2019,and its Constitution,with particular reference to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society.As an intergovernmental organization,IOM acts with its partners in the international community to:assist in the meeting of operational challenges of migration;advance understanding of migration issues;encourage social and economic development through migration;and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants.The precise activities involved in fulfilling its mandate at the regional level does,however,reflect the specific needs and migration realities on the ground,as highlighted in Appendix B.39 IOM,2019a.10Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresThe World Migration Report seriesThe first world migration report was published 22 years ago,initially as a one-off report designed to increase the understanding of migration by policymakers and the general public.It was conceived at a time when the effects of globalization were being felt in many parts of the world and in a multitude of ways.Indeed,the first world migration report states that part of its genesis was due to the effects of globalization on migration patterns,and that the report therefore“looks at the increasingly global economy which has led to an unprecedented influx of newcomers in many countries”.40 The report highlighted the fact that,despite being an“age-old phenomenon”,migration was accelerating as part of broader globalization transformations of economic and trade processes that were enabling greater movement of labour,as well as goods and capital.Table 2 below provides a summary of key statistics reported in the first edition(World Migration Report 2000),as compared to this current edition.It shows that while some aspects have stayed fairly constant the proportion of female international migrants,as well as the overall proportion of the worlds population who were migrants other aspects have changed dramatically.International remittances,for example,have grown from an estimated USD128billion to USD702billion,underscoring the salience of international migration as a driver of development.It is unsurprising then that the International Organization for Migration itself has grown in size,with a significant increase in membership over the last two decades,up from 76 to its current membership of 174 States.Also of note in Table 2 is the rise in international migrants globally(up by about 87%)as well as of refugees(up by about 89%)and internally displaced persons(up by about 160%),all the while remaining very small proportions of the worlds population.Table 2.Key facts and figures from World Migration Reports 2000 and 202220002022Estimated number of international migrants173million281millionEstimated proportion of world population who are migrants2.8%3.6%Estimated proportion of female international migrants 49.4H.0%Estimated proportion of international migrants who are children16.0.6%Region with the highest proportion of international migrantsOceaniaOceaniaCountry with the highest proportion of international migrantsUnited Arab EmiratesUnited Arab EmiratesNumber of migrant workers169millionGlobal international remittances(USD)128billion702billionNumber of refugees14million26.4millionNumber of internally displaced persons21million55millionSources:See IOM,2000 and the present edition of the report for sources(Chapter 2).Notes:The dates of the data estimates in the table may be different to the report publishing date(refer to the reports for more detail on dates of estimates);refer to Chapter 3 of this report for regional breakdowns.Data for 2000 may differ to those originally published due to a standard practice of revising historical estimates at the time of each new dataset release.See,for example,UN DESA,2021.For the purpose of this table,children refers to those aged 19 years or less.40 IOM,2000.11WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022The World Migration Report 2000s contribution to migration policy as well as migration studies was timely,and its success heralded the World Migration Report series.Since 2000,11 world migration reports have been produced by IOM,and the report continues to focus on making a relevant,sound and evidence-based contribution that increases the understanding of migration by policymakers,practitioners,researchers and the general public.To support this objective,the series was refined in 2016,moving away from a single theme for each edition to a global reference report for a wider audience.Each edition now has two parts comprising:Part I:Key data and information on migration and migrants;Part II:Balanced,evidence-based analysis of complex and emerging migration issues.New digital tools through expert collaborationThe World Migration Report series now incorporates a range of digital tools tailored for use in various settings.The tools have been developed in partnerships with some of the worlds leading experts in migration data analysis,data visualization,education and the sciencepolicy interface.The new World Migration Report interactive data visualizations were developed in recognition of the need to deliver outputs in a wide range of formats for expanded accessibility and utility.Launched in May 2021,the interactive data visualizations allow users to both read the“headline”summaries on long-term trends,while also interacting with data points to explore specific time periods,corridors or countries.The new interactive format has become the centrepiece of the World Migration Report online platform,which was awarded gold for the first time at the 2021 International Annual Report Design Awards.41 Additional tools for people working in migration and learning about migration,such as the educators toolkit and the forthcoming officials toolkit,demonstrate the growing salience of migration as well as the utility of the report.42 IOM partners with an extensive range of experts in developing and delivering both the report and the related tools in a wide variety of languages to increase local use.43World Migration Report 2022This edition builds on the previous two reports(2018 and 2020 editions)by providing updated migration statistics at the global and regional levels,as well as descriptive analysis of complex migration issues.Part I,on“key data and information on migration”,includes separate chapters on global migration trends and patterns;regional dimensions and developments;and a discussion of recent contributions to migration research and analysis by the United Nations system,including IOM.These three chapters have been produced institutionally by IOM,drawing primarily on analyses by IOM experts,practitioners and officials around the world,based on data from a wide range of relevant organizations.The eight chapters in Part II are authored by applied and academic researchers working on migration,including IOM researchers.They cover a range of“complex and emerging migration issues”including:COVID-19 impacts on migration,mobility and migrants;peace and security as drivers of development and safe migration;41 IADA,2021.42 See https:/worldmigrationreport.iom.int/about.43 See the“partners”page on the World Migration Report website(https:/worldmigrationreport.iom.int/about),which includes many academic institutions,as well as leading policy think tanks and education organizations.12Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futures migration as a stepladder of opportunity;disinformation about migration;migration and slow-onset climate change;human trafficking in migration pathways;artificial intelligence and migration;and migrants contributions globally.While the choice of these topics is necessarily selective and subjective,all the chapters in Part II of this report are directly relevant to some of the most prominent and important debates about migration in the world today.Many of these topics lie at the heart of the conundrums that face policymakers as they seek to formulate effective,proportionate and constructive responses to complex public policy issues related to migration.Accordingly,the chapters aim to inform current and future policy deliberations and discussions by providing a clear identification of the key issues,a critical overview of relevant research and analysis,and a discussion of the implications for future research and policymaking.The chapters are not meant to be prescriptive,in the sense of advocating particular policy“solutions”especially as the immediate context is an important determinant of policy settings but to be informative and helpful in what can be highly contested debates.Part I:Key data and information on migration and migrantsChapter 2 provides an overview of global data and trends on international migrants(stocks)and international migration(flows).It also provides a discussion of particular migrant groups namely,migrant workers,refugees,asylum seekers and internally displaced persons as well as of international remittances.In addition,the chapter refers to the existing body of IOM programmatic data,particularly on missing migrants,assisted voluntary returns and reintegration,resettlement,and displacement tracking.While these data are generally not global or representative,they can provide insights into changes that have occurred in relevant IOM programming and operations globally.Following the global overview,Chapter 3 provides a discussion of key regional dimensions of,and developments in,migration.The discussion focuses on six world regions as identified by the United Nations:Africa,Asia,Europe,Latin America and the Caribbean,Northern America,and Oceania.For each of these regions,the analysis includes:(a)an overview and brief discussion of key population-related statistics;and(b)succinct descriptions of“key features and developments”in migration in the region,based on a wide range of data,information and analyses,including from international organizations,researchers and analysts.To account for the diversity of migration patterns,trends and issues within each of the six regions,along with descriptive narratives of“key features and recent developments”,are presented at the subregional level.There is a substantial amount of research and analysis on migration that is being undertaken and published by a range of actors such as academics,governments,intergovernmental organizations and think tanks.Chapter 4 provides a broad overview of contributions by the United Nations system,including the United Nations Network on Migration(UNNM)as part of supporting the ongoing implementation of the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration,the Global Compact on Refugees and the Sustainable Development Goals.13WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Part II:Complex and Emerging Migration IssuesChapter 5 The Great Disrupter:COVID-19s impact on migration,mobility and migrants globally This chapter provides an analysis of the impacts of the pandemic on migration and mobility,with particular reference to migrants immobility and vulnerabilities.It focuses on the first year of COVID-19.For people who had migrated,been displaced and/or were part of a highly mobile group prior to COVID-19,the likelihood of having been directly affected by the pandemic is especially high.Aside from health-related impacts,many became trapped in immobility and unemployed,without income support or other social protection.COVID-19 led to large-scale stranded migrant populations,with some experiencing destitution,detention and abuse.COVID-19 highlighted that widely accepted norms previously considered to be cornerstones of international mobility were quickly set aside in the face of the pandemic.The pandemic also pointed to pervasive inequalities deeply rooted in modern-day societies around the world,while also demonstrating that migrant workers and diaspora are frontline workers not only in essential occupations,but also as agents of global human development as remitters.Chapter 6 Peace and security as drivers of stability,development and safe migration This chapter draws upon existing evidence to explore the interaction between conflict,instability and insecurity;development;and migration,showing that instability or conflict feed negatively on development and hence drive displacement,asylum-seeking and unsafe migration.The chapter also goes beyond these well-documented links to show how migration can contribute to stability and development and thus mitigate the conditions that lead to irregular migration and displacement.It highlights some of the pragmatic peacebuilding initiatives,such as community stabilization,that have proven key within the context of migration and displacement to building and sustaining peace at a local level.It also shows how migrants,through a range of activities,contribute to peacebuilding.They do this by advocating for peace,through mediation,building public service institutions,and supporting their families and communities through remittances.14Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresChapter 7 International migration as a stepladder of opportunity:What do the global data actually show?This chapter examines the key questions of“who migrates internationally and where do they go?”It presents analysis of a range of statistical data and draws upon some of the existing body of research on migration determinants and decision-making.Analysis of international migrant stock and human development index data show that between 1995 and 2020,migration from low-and medium-development countries increased,but only slightly,reconfirming existing macroeconomic analyses which show that international migration from low-income countries has historically been limited.However,contrary to previous understandings of international migration,the analysis indicates that there has been a“polarizing”effect,with migration activity increasingly being associated with highly developed countries.This raises the key issue of migration aspirations held by potential migrants from developing countries around the world who may wish to realize opportunities through international migration,but are unable to do so as legal pathways are unavailable to them.Chapter 8 Disinformation about migration:An age-old issue with new tech dimensions This chapter examines the factors shaping disinformation about migration in terms of society,politics,media and technology.It outlines best practices in building public resilience to disinformation and the major insights from current research,with reference to major gaps in our understanding of disinformation and the current barriers to advancing this work.The chapter highlights evidence and practical examples from around the world and from a variety of contexts.It also identifies recommendations and implications for policymakers and other stakeholders seeking to counteract disinformation generally and about migration specifically.15WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Chapter 9 Migration and slow-onset impacts of climate change:Taking stock and taking action This chapter focuses on migration in the context of the slow-onset impacts of climate change,an area where policy and knowledge gaps remain.It presents some of the key challenges associated with understanding and taking action on slow-onset climate impacts and migration issues,and explores how migration policy and practice can play a role in responding to some of the most pressing challenges.Looking ahead at a future in which slow-onset climate events are expected to worsen,appropriate migration management policies and practices can and should be part of the solution.Recent examples of migration policy initiatives that address climate impacts on migration,including slow-onset dimensions,are outlined in the chapter.At the global level,policy discussions have identified some entry points where migration policymakers could be instrumental in promoting positive changes,notably in terms of facilitating migration in the context of slow-onset climate events,and there has been growing interest among both developed and developing States in discussing migration linked to climate impacts in policy terms.Chapter 10 Human trafficking in migration pathways:Trends,challenges and new forms of cooperation This chapter provides an overview of current trafficking trends and patterns,looking at the available data on migrant victims of human trafficking and traffickers.It explores current challenges and promising avenues for the prevention of trafficking of migrants,including prosecuting traffickers,protecting victims and cooperating in counter-trafficking efforts.There is widespread global consensus on the urgent need to prevent and combat human trafficking in migration pathways,with few other migration-related issues having attained as much agreement within the international community.However,there is less consensus on how to achieve this in practice,and there remains a shortfall in political will to introduce effective policies to that end.The chapter offers insights in this area across several domains.16Report overview:Technological,geopolitical and environmental transformations shaping our migration and mobility futuresChapter 11 Artificial intelligence,migration and mobility:Implications for policy and practice This chapter examines the implications of AI for policy and practice in the context of migration and mobility through the prism of the existing international human rights framework of rules,standards and principles.This is important because of the potential for human rights to be eroded or bolstered as a result of the design,development,implementation and expansion of AI technologies around the world.The use of AI throughout the“migration cycle”is examined,with reflections on key strategic challenges and opportunities in this important area of new technology,including as it relates to the“future of work”and long-term migration trends.While AI can certainly bring about a series of advantages for policy and practice,there are a range of risks to State and non-State actors(including migrants)that need to be carefully managed,especially from regulatory and human rights perspectives.Chapter 12 Reflections on migrants contributions in an era of increasing disruption and disinformation“REPEAT”This chapter first appeared in the World Migration Report 2020.The research for this chapter inspired us to delve deeper into the topic of disinformation,resulting in Chapter 8 on disinformation about migration(in this volume).The last two years,however,have shown us that the issue has not abated.In fact,with COVID-19 disinformation,the massive challenges concerning balanced and accurate accounts of migrants contributions have only become worse.So,here it is again,to remind us of the importance of the topic and so additional readers can draw upon its contents.17WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Overall,this world migration report has been produced to help deepen our collective understanding of the various manifestations and complexities of migration in the face of systemic and accelerated change.We hope that all readers are able to learn something new from this edition,as well as to draw on its contents as they undertake their work,study or other activities.18WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022PART IKEY DATA AND INFORMATION ON MIGRATION AND MIGRANTS19WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 202221WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 20222MIGRATION AND MIGRANTS:A GLOBAL OVERVIEW IntroductionDescribing and analysing how migration around the world is changing from a range of different perspectives,including those entailing economic,social and security dimensions(and associated legalpolicy frameworks),must start with an understanding of fundamental metrics.Human migration may well be an age-old activity touching almost every society around the world;however,it is changing in important ways.Examining the shifts in scale,direction,demography and frequency can illuminate how migration is evolving while also pointing to long-term trends that have been shaped by historical as well as recent events.The current global estimate is that there were around 281 million international migrants in the world in 2020,which equates to 3.6percent of the global population.1 A first important point to note is that this is a very small minority of the worlds population,meaning that staying within ones country of birth overwhelmingly remains the norm.The great majority of people do not migrate across borders;much larger numbers migrate within countries.2 That said,these estimates relate to migrant populations,rather than movement events.The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the interconnections between migration and mobility,with COVID-19 travel restrictions resulting in unprecedented immobility around the world.At the time of writing(July 2021),travel restrictions in many countries were being(re)imposed or strengthened as virus strains circulate the globe,testing the worlds collective resilience in the face of a global health crisis unseen in the preceding century.When mobility regimes are not impeded by global pandemics,the overwhelming majority of people migrate internationally for reasons related to work,family and study involving migration processes that largely occur without fundamentally challenging either migrants or the countries they enter.In contrast,other people leave their homes and countries for a range of compelling and sometimes tragic reasons,such as conflict,persecution and disaster.While those who have been displaced,such as refugees and internally displaced persons(IDPs),comprise a relatively small percentage of all migrants,they are often the most in need of assistance and support.This chapter,with its focus on key global migration data and trends,as well as new COVID-19 mobility and travel-related data,seeks to assist migration policymakers,practitioners and researchers in making better sense of the bigger picture of migration,by providing an up-to-date overview of global migration and migrants.The chapter draws upon current statistical sources compiled by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs(UN DESA),the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),the International Labour Organization(ILO),the World Bank,the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR),the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre(IDMC),the International Organization for Migration(IOM)and the University 1 UN DESA,2021a.2 The most recent estimate was 740 million internal migrants globally in 2009(UNDP,2009).22Migration and migrants:A global overviewof Oxford.3 The chapter provides an overview of global data and trends on international migrants(stocks)and international migration(flows).It also provides a discussion of particular migrant groups namely,migrant workers,refugees,asylum seekers,IDPs and missing migrants as well as of international remittances and COVID-19-related mobility restrictions.The chapter also refers to the body of programmatic IOM data,particularly on assisted voluntary returns and reintegration,resettlement and displacement tracking.4 While these data are generally not global or representative,they can provide insights into changes that have occurred in relevant programming and operations globally.As the United Nations migration agency,with activities relevant to all the themes discussed in this chapter,IOM data have the capacity to provide further insights on migration and its various dynamics,including the diverse needs of migrants.Defining migration,migrant and other key termsOutside of general definitions of migration and migrant,such as those found in dictionaries,there exist various specific definitions of key migration-related terms,including in legal,administrative,research and statistical spheres.a While there is no universally agreed definition of migration or migrant,several definitions are widely accepted and have been developed in different settings,such as those set out in UN DESAs 1998 Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration.b Work has recently been completed by the United Nations Statistical Division and a task force of the United Nations Expert Group on Migration Statistics on a revised conceptual framework on statistics on international migration and mobility to guide the process under way in updating the 1998 Recommendations.c The conceptual framework was endorsed by the United Nations Statistical Commission at its 52nd session in March 2021,paving the way for revised recommendations on international migrant and mobility that are better able to account for different aspects of mobility,including migration.d The conceptual framework is summarized in Appendix A.Technical definitions,concepts and categories of migrants and migration are necessarily informed by geographic,legal,political,methodological,temporal and other factors.For example,there are numerous ways in which migration events can be defined,including in relation to place of birth,citizenship,place of residence and duration of stay.e This is important when it comes to quantifying and analysing the effects of migration and migrants,however defined.We encourage readers to refer to primary sources cited in the chapter for information on specific definitions and categorizations underlying the data.Readers may also find the IOM Glossary on Migration(2019 edition)to be a useful reference.The Glossary is available at the IOM Publications Platform:https:/publications.iom.int/books/international-migration-law-ndeg34-glossary-migration.a See,for example,Poulain and Perrin,2001.b UN DESA,1998.c United Nations Statistics Division,2021.d United Nations Statistical Commission,2021.e See,for example,de Beer et al.,2010.3 To keep within the scope of this report,statistics utilized in this chapter were current as at 30 June 2021,unless otherwise stated.4 IOM data on victims of human trafficking are presented in Chapter 10 of this report.23WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022International migrants:numbers and trendsUN DESA produces estimates of the number of international migrants globally.The following discussion draws on its estimates,which are based on data provided by States.5 The current United Nations Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration defines an“international migrant”as any person who has changed his or her country of usual residence,distinguishing between“short-term migrants”(those who have changed their countries of usual residence for at least three months,but less than one year)and“long-term migrants”(those who have done so for at least one year).However,not all countries use this definition in practice.6 Some countries use different criteria to identify international migrants,for example by applying different minimum durations of residence.Differences in concepts and definitions,as well as data collection methodologies between countries,hinder full comparability of national statistics on international migrants.A review of the United Nations recommendations is currently under way,as discussed in the text box above.The estimated number of international migrants has increased over the past 50 years.In 2020,almost 281 million people lived in a country other than their country of birth,or about 128 million more than 30 years earlier,in 1990(153 million),and over three times the estimated number in 1970(84 million).The proportion of international migrants as a share of the total global population has also increased,but only incrementally.The vast majority of people live in the country in which they were born.The impact of COVID-19 on the global population of international migrants is somewhat difficult to assess,one reason for this being that the latest available data are as at mid-2020,7 fairly early in the pandemic.That said,it is estimated that COVID-19 may have reduced the growth in the stock of international migrants by around two million.In other words,had there not been COVID-19,the number of international migrants in 2020 would have likely been around 283 million.8 Table 1.International migrants,19702020YearNumber of international migrantsMigrants as a%of the worlds population1970844601252.3197590368 0102.219801019831492.319851132066912.319901529861572.919951612899762.820001732305852.820051914468282.920102209831873.220152479586443.420202805981053.6Source:UN DESA,2008;UN DESA,2021a.Note:The number of entities(such as States,territories and administrative regions)for which data were made available in the UN DESA International Migrant Stock 2020 was 232.In 1970,the number of entities was 135.5 Data are also provided to UN DESA by territories and administrative units.For a summary on UN DESA stock data sources,methodology and caveats,please see UN DESA,2021b.6 UN DESA,1998.7 UN DESA,2021b.8 UN DESA,2021c.24Migration and migrants:A global overviewWhen international migrant populations are examined by United Nations region,Europe is currently the largest destination for international migrants,with 87 million migrants(30.9%of the international migrant population),followed closely by the 86 million international migrants living in Asia(30.5%).9 Northern America is the destination for 59 million international migrants(20.9%),followed by Africa with 25 million migrants(9%).Over the past 15 years,the number of international migrants in Latin America and the Caribbean has more than doubled from around 7 million to 15 million,making it the region with the highest growth rate of international migrants and the destination for 5.3percent of all international migrants.Around 9 million international migrants live in Oceania,or about 3.3percent of all migrants.The growth of international migrants living in each region between 2005 and 2020 is shown in Figure 1.Figure 1.International migrants,by major region of residence,20052020(millions)0 20 40 60 80 100AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin America and the CaribbeanNorth AmericaOceania2005201020152020Source:UN DESA,2021a.Oceania has the largest share of international migrants as a proportion of the total population,with 22percent of the population having been born in another country.Northern America has the second largest share of international migrants at 15.9percent,followed by Europe at 11.6percent.Latin America and the Caribbean,Africa,and Asia have international migrant shares of 2.3,1.9,and 1.8percent respectively.As has been the case for the past 50 years,the United States of America remains the primary destination for migrants,at over 51 million international migrants.Germany has become the second most prominent destination,with nearly 16 million international migrants,while Saudi Arabia is the third largest destination country for international migrants,at 13 million.The Russian Federation and the United Kingdom round out the top five destination countries,with about 12 million and 9 million international migrants respectively.A list of the top 20 destination countries for migrants can be found in the left panel of Figure 2.9 UN DESA,2021a.25WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022With nearly 18 million people living abroad,India has the largest emigrant population in the world,making it the top origin country globally.Mexico is the second most significant origin country at around 11 million.The Russian Federation is the third largest origin country,followed closely by China(around 10.8 million and 10 million respectively).The fifth most significant origin country is the Syrian Arab Republic,with over 8 million people living abroad,mainly as refugees due to large-scale displacement over the last decade(see discussion in the refugee section below).The panel on the right in Figure 2 features the top 20 origins of migrants in 2020.Figure 2.Top 20 destinations(left)and origins(right)of international migrants in 2020(millions)0204060United States of AmericaGermanySaudi ArabiaRussian FederationUnited KingdomUnited Arab EmiratesFranceCanadaAustraliaSpainItalyTurkeyUkraineIndiaKazakhstanThailandMalaysiaJordanPakistanKuwait05101520IndiaMexicoRussian FederationChinaSyrian Arab RepublicBangladeshPakistanUkrainePhilippinesAfghanistanVenezuela(Bolivarian Republic of)PolandUnited KingdomIndonesiaKazakhstanPalestinian TerritoriesRomaniaGermanyMyanmarEgyptSource:UN DESA,2021a.26Migration and migrants:A global overviewWorld Migration Report Data Visualization PlatformIn May 2021,IOM launched a new World Migration Report web portal that integrates fact-based migration narratives with interactive data visualizations on the most up-to-date global migration data and trends.a This digital format offers an intuitive representation of the data by displaying interactive visualizations of global migration trends.Building on the analysis developed in the report,the site provides country-level migration statistics and maps,interactive visualizations of migration corridors,and the leading remittance recipient and source nations since 1995,in addition to global and regional data.New interactive components on COVID-19 restrictions were added from this current report.By creating a visual context for the information,data visualization favors a more accessible comprehension of the magnitudes of the numbers and the trends at play,supplementing the extensive analysis presented in the report.The interactive platform is available in English,French and Spanish.a IOM,2020a.The available international migrant data include estimates of origin and destination links between two countries,allowing for the estimation of bilateral migration“corridors”globally.The size of a migration corridor from country A to country B is measured as the number of people born in country A who were residing in country B in 2020.Migration corridors represent an accumulation of migratory movements over time and provide a snapshot of how migration patterns have evolved into significant foreign-born populations in specific destination countries.As can be seen in Figure 3,the Mexico to United States corridor is the largest in the world at nearly 11 million people.The second is from the Syrian Arab Republic to Turkey,comprising mainly refugees displaced by the Syrian Arab Republics decade-long civil war.On the other hand,the third largest corridor in the world,India to the United Arab Emirates(over 3 million),comprises mainly labour migrants.The bilateral corridor between the Russian Federation and Ukraine take up spots four and five among the largest corridors in the world.About 3million people born in the Russian Federation now live in Ukraine,while nearly the same number of people have moved from Ukraine to the Russian Federation.27WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022Figure 3.Top 20 international migration country-to-country corridors,20200 4 8 12Mexico United States of America Syrian Arab Republic Turkey India United Arab Emirates Russian Federation Ukraine Ukraine Russian Federation India United States of America Afghanistan Iran(Islamic Republic of)Kazakhstan Russian Federation India Saudi Arabia Bangladesh India Russian Federation KazakhstanChina United States of AmericaPoland GermanyPhilippines United States of AmericaMyanmar ThailandTurkey Germany Venezuela(Bolivarian Republic of)ColombiaIndonesia Saudi ArabiaAlgeria FranceAfghanistan Pakistan Migrants(millions)Source:UN DESA,2021a.Note:The corridors present the number of international migrants(millions)born in the first-mentioned country and residing in the second.Corridors represent an accumulation of migratory movements over time and provide a snapshot of how migration patterns have evolved into significant foreign-born populations in specific destination countries.Most international migrants(around 78%)were of working age(between 15 and 64 years of age).Since 1990,the share of international migrants age 19 and younger has dropped from 18.9percent to 14.6percent,while international migrants older than 64 have remained steady at around 12.2percent.There is currently a larger number of male than female international migrants worldwide,and the gap has increased over the past 20 years.In 2000,the male to female split was 50.6 to 49.4percent(or 88 million male migrants and 86 million female migrants).In 2020 the split is 51.9 to 48.0percent,with 146 million male migrants and 135million female migrants.The share of female migrants has been decreasing since 2000,while the share of male migrants has increased by 1.4 percentage points.See Figure 4 for further breakdowns by sex.28Migration and migrants:A global overviewFigure 4.International migrants,by sex,2000202002040608010012014016020002005201020152020millions male female49.4P.6Q.0I.0Q.6H.4Q.7H.3R.1G.9%Source:UN DESA,2021a.Conflating“migration”and“migrant”In a general sense,migration is the process of moving from one place to another.To migrate is to move,whether from a rural area to a city,from one district or province in a given country to another in that same country,or from one country to a new country.It involves action.In contrast,a migrant is a person described as such for one or more reasons,depending on the context(see the text box on“Defining migration,migrant and other key terms”above).While in many cases“migrants”do undertake some form of migration,this is not always the case.In some situations,people who have never undertaken migration may be referred to as migrants children of people born overseas,for example,are commonly called second-or third-generation migrants.a This may even extend to situations involving statelessness,whereby whole groups of people are not able to access citizenship despite being born and raised in a country.Such people may even be referred to as irregular migrants by authorities.ba See,for example,Neto,1995;Fertig and Schmidt,2001.b Kyaw,2017.29WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2022International migration flowsWhile data on migrant stocks are widely available,data on global migration movements(flows)are much more limited.Available UN DESA estimates on global migrant stocks are extensive and global in scope;however,the database of migration flows only encompasses 45 countries.10 Capturing data on migration flows is extremely challenging for several reasons.First,while international migration flows are generally accepted as covering inflows and outflows into and from countries,there has been a greater focus on recording inflows.For example,while countries such as Australia and the United States record cross-border movements,many others only count entries and not departures.11 Additionally,migration flow data in some countries are derived from administrative events related to immigration status(for example,issuance/renewal/withdrawal of a residence permit),which are then used as a proxy for migration flows.Furthermore,migratory movements are often hard to separate from non-migratory travel,such as tourism or business.12 Tracking migratory movements also requires considerable resources,infrastructure and ICT/knowledge systems.This poses particular challenges for developing countries,where the ability to collect,administer,analyse and report data on mobility,migration and other areas is often limited.Finally,many countries physical geographies pose tremendous challenges for collecting data on migration flows.Entry and border management,for example,is particularly challenging in some regions because of archipelagic and isolated borders,and is further complicated by traditions of informal migration for work.13There are currently two main data sets on international migration flows,both of which are derived from national statistics:UN DESAs International Migration Flows data set and OECDs International Migration Database.Since 2005,UN DESA has compiled data on the flows of international migrants to and from selected countries,based on nationally available statistics.At the time of writing(July 2021),there had been no update to the UN DESA flows data set,with the most current being the 2015 version.The 2015 migration flows data set comprises data from 45 countries,up from 29 countries in 2008 and 15 countries in 2005.14The OECD has been collecting international migration flow data since 2000,allowing for trend analysis to be conducted over a subset of major destination countries,depicted in Figure 5(though data are not standardized,as explained in the note under the figure).The latest available data indicate that in 2018,a 10percent increase in permanent migration inflows was recorded from the previous year of 2017.The United States,one of the main destination countries,recorded around 1.1 million new entries in 2018,a 2.7percent decrease compared with the previous year.Another country that recorded a notable change was Chile,with 64percent growth.With regard to the European countries in OECD,total migration increased by around 136,000 in 2018(3.2%more than 2017).Within Europe,the United Kingdom and Italy recorded 6.5 and 5.2percent declines in permanent flows,respectively.The growth in Europe was instead led by Spain( 23%,or an increase of around 106,000)and Portugal( 52%,or an increase of around 32,000).10 UN DESA,2015.11 Koser,2010;McAuliffe and Koser,2017.12 Skeldon,2018.13 Gallagher and McAuliffe,2016.14 For UN DESA migration flow data,as well as for the specific countries included,please see UN DESA,2015.30Migration and migrants:A global overviewFigure 5.Inflows of foreign nationals into OECD countries,permanent migration,20002018(millions)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 82000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018Source:OECD,n.d.a.Note:Data are not standardized and therefore differ from statistics on permanent migration inflows into selected countries contained in OECDs International Migration Outlook series.The 35 countries typically included in OECD statistics are the following:Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,Czechia,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,Latvia,Luxembourg,Mexico,the Netherlands,New Zealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Republic of Korea,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,the United Kingdom and the United States.In some years,data for particular countries are not available:data were made available for 31 countries in 2000.Notably,data for Greece have not been reported between 2000 and 2004,and data for Turkey were reported only for 2010,2016,2017 and 2018.The impacts of COVID-19 on mobility globally are discussed below in this chapter and also in Chapter 5 of this report.Unsafe migration flows Some migration corridors pose many more challenges than others,for migrants as well as for authorities.Migrants journeys can sometimes be characterized by unsafe and even deadly outcomes,often related to a range of social,political,economic,environmental and policy factors that can profoundly impact the way in which people undertake migration.15 In the wake of the tragic
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EssenceMediacom：图解2023年中国女性护肤品消费，白皮书（英文版）（58页）.pdf
Skincare Consumer Illustration and Future Market OutlookChina Skincare Market Whitepaper2023 Market Whitepaper Series 01She says 2Gabrielle KongVP of Strategy,Chief EditorTing YuanInsight&Data LeadVonnie WanAssociate DirectorJoy LongMedia MasterEsperanza WangInsight&Data ManagerIris SongSenior Executive3Gabrielle KongLife ArtistSkincare ritual,as an essential part of the self-indulgent culture,shows your lifestyle attitude.For example,I pay closer attention to rituals in their day-to-day life and shows a higher awareness regarding self-care.Whether its Gen Z or millennials,they both have higher requirements for life.The idea that“I am living not surviving”has resonated greatly with todays Chinese,and they look to reward themselves under hustle culture with quality lifestyles.Ting YuanHabitual FollowerIts a balancing act when it comes to time allocation.Whilst multi-tasking from a number of roles including mum,daughter,wife,employee and friends,my philosphy is to minimise time spent,and room for error by choosing the product of the brands I trust.We live in the age when new products show up all the time,its ever more important for brands to build equity and trust.Vonnie WanLife ArtistSkincare is not just about skincare,but more like my own ritual than makeup.The choice of products represents the degree of self-care,the choice of brand represents the tag of self-recognition,and efficacy and user experience is for self-pleasing.During our research,we gradually find that this personalized consumer behavior reflects various individuals different pursuit of experience value,and then the consumer personas become three-dimensional.4Esperanza WangBeauty QueenLife for me is an adventure,exploring the world and collecting new experiences while growing on the way and learning about myself by looking inward.For skincare,I have the same philosophy:I favor the premium brands while try the niche ones in trend;as long as I think they-brands,efficacy,formulas,etc.-have a reputation and suit my skin type,I would love to add new ones on top of my skincare routine.This is also the process of constantly understanding my skin type and refreshing my knowledge.Joy LongLife ArtistSkincare,a topic that every woman,and more and more men,cannot live without.It is time for self communication,respect and love.What skincare can bring us is not only a skin texture that can withstand the test of time,but also self-love and self-confidence that sprouts from the bottom of our hearts.This is why skincare is becoming more and more important to people.Iris SongCurious ExplorerSkincare is becoming a special ritual for women to please themselves in daily life.Skincare products have not only functional benefits,but other spiritual values like identity and ideal projection.The upgrading of consumer demands has spurred the rise of diversified skincare brands.Its difficult for brands to target their audience by the old classification method based on age and income.In the era of big data&precise advertising,I am curious about if data can help brand find more insight.5PrefaceOver the past year,the mainlands crowded and highly competitive beauty market has undergone a total reshuffle.We have also experienced through the“changing”new normal.Ahead of IWD,we launch this whitepaper to give you a unique perspective and methodology provided by Essencemediacom to show how we decode the industry of“beauty”and its consumers.Gabrielle KongVP of Strategy,Chief EditorThe challenging industry:Rapid growth phase of Chinas facial skincare market has come and goneWith the advancement of Chinas domestic economy and the upgrade of national consumer demand,Beauty Economy was rapidly on the rise.Before 2019,Chinese facial skincare market had been growing for five years,and its consumer market share even ranked the second in the world in 2018.Affected by Covid-19 and the economic downturn,the growth in Chinas skincare market size has slowed down.The Consumer Confidence Index in October 2022 was 87.2,down from 121.7 in 2021 and the lowest in nearly 11 years.The penetration of Chinas skincare market is relatively saturated,but the per capita spend is only 27.8 US dollars(2020),lower than that of the United States,Japan and other developed countries,and the industry has entered the era of stock competition.61,482 1,637 1,851 2,130 2,369 2,587 2,807 3,036 4.50.4.0.1.2%9.2%8.5%8.1%0%5 %0%0.0500.01,000.01,500.02,000.02,500.03,000.03,500.02016201720182019202020212022E 2023ESource:Euromonitor,iResearchMarket size&growth rate of Chinas skincare industry(Unit:100 mil RMB)Source:Euromonitor,iResearchThe heightened competition:premiumization,diversification and fragmentation brought by full market competitionSince 2017,premium skincare category has become one of the main drivers for the overall skincare categorys growth,and the overall trend has been shifting towards more premium and higher price per unit.These days we live and breathe in new technology,it has become the driving force for many industries,and beauty industry is no exception.Many businesses have enhanced their products and competitive edge with technological innovations,and this led to the growth of product line in superior efficacy.And with the popularity of skincare knowledge,mens skincare products have gradually become the industrys blue ocean,and many international and domestic brands have taken advantage of the momentum to launch a male skincare product line.78.5.8%.0(.6#.6.1.9.3%4.4%6.1%8.0%7.8%2.0%1.7%0.8%0.8%0.0%5.0.0.0 .0%.00.05.0 162017201820192020202120222023High-end skincare marektMass skincare marketGrowth rate of High-end and mass skincare market in ChinaThe Marketplace：Leading international groups have presence in all tiers,and there is opportunity for Chinese labels to gain ground in more premium segmentsWestern brandsJ/K brandsClassic Chinese brandsEmergingChinese brands(Owned by LOral Group)PrestigeMid-to-highMass Super Premium9How to create a highly visible skincare brand and drive growth in a competitive landscape?10Four Problems of Growth01020304The right product:How to unlock the next product for growth?The right people:Who are the source of growth?The right message:How to attract the target audiences for growth?The right activation:How to apply the insight in respective media ecosystem?11Section oneThe right product：How to unlock the next product for growth?12Art ScienceSolutionHuman UnderstandingPower of DATA13Research method:Social media insightsMARKETChinaLANGUAGEChinesePERIODP12M dataJan 2022 Dec 2022PLATFORMSTOOLSDatastoryBRAND SETTake Serum as an example,Lancme Gnifique,Este Lauder ANR,Shiseido Ultimune,ProyaDeep Ocean Energy,Skin Ceuticals Phyto Corrective GelSCOPE We listen to spontaneous conversations posted by consumers,influencers and brands on public platforms.It is not a strict representation,for example,of sales performance.To comply with cybersecurity and data privacy regulations,consumers identity in their user generated content is anonymized throughout the report.RESEARCH PROCESSCOMPLIANCEDATA COLLECTION set-up&collection of public posts&conversationsDATA MININGnoise cleaning&exploration of top trendsINSIGHT MININGanalysis of the conversation elements&key factorsCONCLUSION&TAKEAWAYSrecommendations for marketing&influence teamsNote:1.The data for these brands were only available for skincare lines,except for makeup or fragrance;2.%refers to the proportion of social volume of hero products in all skincare products of the whole brand;3.Word cloud displays keywords associated with skincare products of the whole brand;4.Platform:RedSource:Datastory,09/23/2021 09/22/202214Focus on hero product,establish strong brand image58D%Este LauderANRLancmeGenifiqueSHISEIDOUltimuneProyaDeep Ocean Energy/Elastic BrighteningIts share of voice in overall brandvolume on RedSerumChanelLa MousseSK-IIFacial Treatment EssenceWinonaAnti-sensitive MoisturizingTolerance Extreme Cream MedRepairRejuvenating Repairing Mask24aR%Their share of voicein overall brandvolume on RedOthersSkincare products depend heavily on word-of-mouth and efficacy,so the hero product not only represents its product perception,but also the overall brand image.Through serum,most distinctive in its efficacy,is the fastest way for most skincare brands to open the market.Note:1.Select products with high volume of social discussion as an example;2.Platform:RedSource:Datastory,09/23/2021 09/22/202215Serum:highly saturated with focus on skin efficacy Este Lauder ANRLancme Genifique SkinCeuticals Phyto CorrectiveGuerlain Abeille Royale Shiseido Proya Deep Ocean EnergyMoisturizingHydratingIngredientsHigh-End BrandsStocking UpRednessSkin ToneFirmnessAnti-agingAntioxidant ProtectionEmpty BottlesSkin PoresWhiteningAnti-irritationSkin BarrierSkin ResilienceStabilizingFine LinesOily SkinTexture-3-2-10123-3-2-1012Anti-Aging|Stabilizing|Antioxidant ProtectionStabilizing|Oily Skin|Fine LinesRedness|Anti-Irritation|Hydrating|Skin Tone|WhiteningFirmness|Anti-Aging|MoisturizingStabilizing|Moisturizing|Skin PoresAnti-Aging|Oily skin|Skin Pores|Antioxidant ProtectionEste Lauder ANR,Lancme Genifique and Guerlain Abeille Royale have similar images in the social discussionAnti-aging and stabilizing are the most fundamental also intensely competitive demand spaces.And international and local brands have made efficacy claims in their respective fields.To rise to the top,in addition to introducing new skincare concepts,brands must continue to innovate to consolidate the strength of the ingredients within the mainstream demand spaces of safety brands.EfficacyMoisturizing Anti-AgingWhiteningStabilizing16ENGAGEMENT Somewhat common(not new/innovative)but with good potential to win proximity with consumersNot likely to generate viral reactions in the immediate future VOLUMENiche topicsOrganic TopicsThe percentage of postsEfficacy claims are highly saturated with focus on skin efficacy through superior science,ingredients,skin problems,etc.Amongst them,ingredients is undoubtedly an essential topic in todays Chinese skincare market.How can we prepare for the next trend through social insight?Average number of likesSerum:Cutting through the clutter of efficacy claimsWith potential to gain wider attraction and becomes the new normTrending TopicsMust-have messages in all brands campaigns also highly competitiveEstablished TopicsSource:analysis of the best posts on Red over the past yearEfficacy topic trend:Ingredients to formula,quantity to naturalness 17ENGAGEMENT VOLUMETrending TopicsNiche topicsEstablished TopicsOrganic Topics(VC in the morning&retinol at night,VC in the morning&VB at night,VE&VC,Niacin&Retinol,ABC skincare)(Additive-free,No preservatives,No SLS,No artificial flavours/colors,Cleaningredients,Minimal formula,Reduction of skin burdens,Skin fasting)(Supply chain,Local purchases,fair trade,Red Ribbon,Eco-friendly,Pollution,Recyclable,Zero packaging,Waterless beauty)(Formula,Ingredient lovers,Concentration level,Multiple factors,Pro-xylane,Niacin,Ceramides,Oligopeptide,Retinol,BFL,VC in the morning&retinol at night,377)(Anti-aging,First signs of aging,Mature skin,Younger,Anti-oxidation,Fine lines,Wrinkles,Firming,Lifting,Remodeling,Anti-glycemic,Skin rejuvenation.)FormulaClean,Free fromCSRIngredientsSkin ProblemThe percentage of postsAverage number of likesConsumers are becoming more sophisticated in their knowledge beyond effective ingredients.Skincare formulas such as VC in the morning&retinol at night have gone viral and are still hotly discussed.Trend for clean beauty continues to rise,and this further extends into ingredients and craftsmanship claims within the topic.Note:1.Select products with high volume of social discussion as an example;2.Platform:RedSource:Datastory，09/23/2021 09/22/2022Face cream:Luxury brands bring emotional values18La Mer La Mer Moisturing Moisturing CreamCreamKiehls Ultra Kiehls Ultra Facial CreamFacial CreamWinona AntiWinona Anti-sensitive sensitive MoisturizerMoisturizerClinique Clinique Dramatically Dramatically Different GelDifferent GelHR Replasty HR Replasty Age RecoveryAge RecoverySKSK-II II Skinpower Skinpower CreamCreamAnti-agingMoisturizingTextureAnti-irritationRednessSkin BarrierIngredientsHydratingEmpty BottlesFirmnessFine LinesWhiteningStabilizingAcneBig NamesPremium BrandsGift BoxesPeelingDark Spots-3-2-10123-2-1012Creams from premium brands such as LM,SKII,HR have similar images in the social discussionBeyond basic moisturizing,anti-aging,stabilizing,consumers focus on the claims like feel on skin and texture that signifies a sense of ritual and valueEfficacyMoisturizing StabilizingAnti-agingxUser Experience(Premium brands)Anti-Irritation|Stabilizing|TextureAnti-Aging|Firmness|Anti-Irritation|TextureOily skin|Moisturizing|HydratingAnti-Aging|Dryness|TextureMoisturizing|HydratingMoisturizing|Anti-Irritation|Acnes|Redness|Skin BarrierNote:1.Select products with high volume of social discussion as an example;2.Platform:RedSource:Datastory,09/23/2021 09/22/2022Mask:Besides rich usage scenarios,new usage methods and new ingredients are all springing up19Besides basic efficacy,consumers expect facial masks to have more diversified usage scenarios,and they are open to new usage methods and are willing to try new ingredients.AmpouleHydratingHA(hyaluronic acid)Anti-irritationApplicationSmoothingCaviarSOSSheetBrightening&Reducing RednessEGTStay Up LateFreeze-dried SoothingGentianaSeasons changeLOREAL PARIS Revita Lift Filler HA MAOGEPING-Luxury Caviar Facial MaskPROYA Elastic Brightening Youth Dual action MaskINOHERB Gentiana Repairing Freeze-dried Essence Mask 20Data insight into product characteristics and formulate respective marketing plansCategoryConsumer FocusHalo EffectGrowth OpportunitySerumEfficacy,IngredientsHighSuitable for big brands to show their brand strengthLocal brands could rise leveraging 1-2 exclusive ingredientsFace creamEmotional values involving efficacy and user experience MidSuitable for well-known brands with high brand loyalty(especially luxury brands).MaskEfficacy,occasions,innovation(More open to try new ingredients,concepts,and applications)LowRelatively low cost of innovationOpportunity for new brands to build hero productHow to find the right path for growth?How to plan marketing budget?How to pivot to the key selling point？?21Section TwoThe right people:Who are the source of growth?2253.2%“”The age of 25 is the turning point for skin condition.After 25,the production of collagen slows down,and the risk of aging skin increases,so you can start to use anti-aging products at 25.“”After the age of 35,my mindset started to change.I began to simplify my skincare products and did not impose too many high-effect products that were difficult to absorb by the skin.My skin looked good simply by moisturizing and nourishing.50%of Chinese consumers who buy Chinese local cosmetics live in first-tier or new first-tier cities“”I bought Proya and Winona in Li Jiaqi live streaming for several times and found that these Chinese products were quite good.They have the same famous ingredients as those big names,their prices are cheaper,and they are effective too.I might as well use the money I save to eat something good.of Chinese consumers who buy international premium brands live in third-and fourth-tier cities“”Although the income in small cities is not high,the expense is also low,and with the support of my parents,I have quite a bit of spare money.I dont have any other hobbies,but I love to study cosmetics.Having experienced the benefits of premium skincare products,I dont want to go back to cheap ones.49.4%Source:WISERS-2021国货美妆人群洞察Focus on Geography?Miss Zhou,ShanghaiMiss Wang，Maanshanin AnhuiSource:SHJ,2022Note:“International premium brands”include Estee lauder,Lancome,Chanel,Dior,Armani,La Mer,La prairie,HR,Velmont,CPB,SisleyConsumers are more cautious when faced with uncertainty.Yet they look for higher value products and experiences in their pursuit of quality of life while keeping their budgets in check.This redefinition of“essentials”is also affecting their skincare choices.We found that groups divided by traditional demographic attributes can no longer reflect consumers different values of skincare products.Their spending on skincare and their willingness to try different brands are helping them rethink skincare categories from a perspective of price premium.#Consumers are redefining the industry25“”Ting Yuan,Data LeadResearch methodology:Anthropomorphic interpretation in the era of Big Data26Quanti tative Anal ysi s Shanhaijin is GroupMs own large-scale syndicated consumer study,which has run in China for more than 15 years.It is an important tool to help clients gain insight into the changes of consumer media and consumption habits in the Chinese market,enable strategy formulation,and promote business growth.The consumer segmentation is built on the latest summer edition of Shanhaijin database in 2022.The data is analyzed from the aspects of the target audiences demographic profiles,passions and interests,consumption behaviors and media behaviours.Qual itati ve I nterviews Through in-depth interviews with different skincare consumers personas,we gain insight into their specific and general characteristics in terms of working environment,culture and value,attitude toward skincare,interests and purchase journey,etc.Their real-life testimonies enrich our understanding of consumer groups with their individual experiences and complete the overall study.SCIENCE ARTUnder the logical guidance of Science Art,the quantitative analysis of Shanhaijin combined with in-depth qualitative interviews to explore the unique insights of consumersNote:City tiers are derived from the above attributesGroupM ShanHaiJin：Leading consumer research with national coverage27GroupMCity TierRepresentativeCitiesT1ShanghaiT2WuhanT3HefeiT4HuzhouT5GuiyangT6QidongT7XiningT8Hubei,Jingzhou,ShishouT9Fujian,Sanming,TainingT10Shanxi,Yuncheng,Suining2,000 citiesM a r k e t S c a l eConsumption scale,economic scale,population scale,such as total retail sales of consumer goods,gross regional product,number of resident population,etc.10major city groupsC o n s u m p t i o n I n te n ti o nFinancial situation,willingness to spend,drivers of consumption,income level,etc.,such as urban disposable income,total retail sales of social consumer goods per capitaM e d i a c o n s u m p ti o nMedia use,advertising exposure,category awareness,reach of advertising media,etc.S o c i a l C u l tu r eIndustrial structure,geographical distribution,such as the proportion of primary,secondary and tertiary industriesTr a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d L o g i s ti c sDelivery network,railroad network,the number of delivery networks,geographical distributionHigh TierMid TierLow TierMarket Scale 90,Consumption Intention 70.Transportation and Logistics 90,Media Consumption 80Market Scale 80,Consumption Intention 40.Transportation and Logistics 70,Media Consumption 55Market Scale55,Consumption Intention15,Transportation and Logistics50,Media Consumption30GroupM City Tier Definition160K sample sizeUpdate frequency 4times/yearSource:SHJ 2022 Wave 1(May-July)Base:Women aged 15-49 who have recently purchased skincare products;%represents the percentage of the total audience of this category6 persona of skincare consumers28Number of brands purchased in one month0-2,0002,000 5 3-41-2The amount of money spent on skincare products last time(RMB)Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党12%Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人15%Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族34auty Queen美 容 大 王17%Life Artist悦 己 生 活 家9%Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒12%6 Consumer personas are defined with number of products used in a month and amount spent(2,000RMB or higher as mid/high range,assuming minimum 500RMB a set and 4 sets a month)Define consumers by their skincare philosophy and spendingsConsumers are segmented by their levels of brand consciousness.Detailed learning of their individual product needs leads us closer to the essence of consumer insights.1-2 Brands3-4 Brands5 BrandsNot keen on skincare category,Follows simple application stepsSolid knowledge in the category,with comprehensive skincare routineSophisticated and passionate about skincare,with further application stepsBasic cleaning,moisturizing,oil control,and to some extent whitening and repairChooses appropriate products,and switch to specialized products to adjust to seasons and changing skin conditionsKnowledgeable of her skin condition and functional needs,use specific products regularly,and chooses additional products to relieve temporary skin symptomsLow brand consciousness with high brand loyaltyExpensive to convertBrand conscious,differentiates western,Japanese&Korean and domestic brands,generally has her own preferenceHigh conscious of skincare brands,not only familiar with big names,but also clued up about emerging,niche brandsSkincare ConceptFunctional NeedsBrand NeedsBrand Consciousness*Note:Brand consciousness refers to the number of brands commonly used by consumersOOH:airport;mallsOffline Event:pop-ups;mallsMoment AdBrand CollaborationCustomer ReviewECCelebrity EndorsementPost-95s(TGI:132),Post-90s(TGI:137)SHJ High-Tier Cities(TGI:148)Monthly Income 10k-30k CNYStore Exploring(Life/Travel Vlog)Exhibition/Stand-up ComedyCollectible（Blind box,Legos,Fragrances,etc.)FitnessMarried Without Kids(43%,TGI:130)SportsHigh-Tier White CollarPassion for Life No-kidsSocial ButterflyYOLOYouthfulPubAppearance-firstNight ClubFrontier White CollarSophisticated MomGen ZSTAYCATION种草 Reach 拔草 Reaction养草 Relevance复购 RepurchaseKOLVertical app/WebPrivate DomainMembership:VIP;TmallmembershipBeauty Queen美 容 大 王17%They are passionate about skincare with sophisticated knowledge;they have their own skincare philosophy.They areoptimistic and curious,enjoy trying out new products/brands.Though with high purchasing power,they dont blindlyfollow big names.They choose products for superior ingredients,efficacy and experience.They are less loyal to brandsand less price sensitive,but they will also impulsivelybuy products during e-commerce festivals and promotions.Brand Prestige：New brands：Efficacy：Price：WOM：KOC Index：Note:1.EC tags are cross-referenced from Alis 8 major demographics and SHJ data;2.Demographic characteristics data are from SHJ3.highlights consumers vulnerable stage that is the brand activation pointKey influencing factors when choosing productNote：marks the key points for brands to lay out31Not ready to settle Pursue challengeBeing young,I want to try more before finding my way.And I lookforwardto challengesand pursue meaningful work that I like.Focus on mePay for loveI watch the shows I love and wear the clothes I love.It is my life,so I do things for my own happiness.Love socializingFamily and friends firstMy family and friends are important to me,they provide strong supportand are my priority.She is 26 years old and lives in Shanghai with a monthly income of over 10,000 RMB.She lives by her own principles.Her favorite skincare brands are Whoo,Lancome,Estee Lauder,Clarins,and Biophyto-genesis.Sweet,cool girl on Julu Road 158who knows everything about beautyHer skincare philosophyI am veryfamiliarwith myskin type,and I havespecific,seasonalproducts for different skinconditions.When I see a popular product,I wantto try it immediately.if itsuits my skin,I willkeeprepurchasingit.Herconsumer journeyLook for fresh and popular goods!The product with good reputation is worth a try!Ill buy it!its time to witness miracle!I will ask my friends in the beauty industry,check the KOCreviews,and go to the counter to try the product by myself!It is very convenient to buy.I have bought from the official mini program,live streaming,official e-commerce,duty free mini program,Douyin.Also,I couldnt help but getting the deals during e-commerce festival!I always pay attention to my skin condition.If my skin becomes tender after using the product,I will keep it for a long time;If it has no effect on my skin,I will change it immediately;If my skin turns sensitive,I will put it aside for a while.I usually see new product ads when I go shopping,also when I browse apps like Red or Beauty,Evolution every day.Of course,the brand official platforms is the quickest way to get new product info.Beauty Queen美容大王17%Post-90(TGI:140)SHJ High-&Mid-Tier Cities(TGI:125,136)Photo-sharingMovie/TV ShowSkiing/Surfing/SkateboardingDancingMarried(75%)Have Kids(73%)Enjoy LifeYoung White CollarsCarpe DiemNew Middle ClassSelf-pleasingHedonisticWork-life BalanceNew ExperienceWine Tasting/CoffeeThey love beauty and care about skincare.They understand their skin type and match with their skincare products,but they do not have deep knowledge about skincare.They have many interests in life that take their time andenergy,so they are not willing to spend too much time studying skincare.If a product is from a big name or isrecommended by friends,they are willing to try them.They are less price sensitive.Thus,they do not stock up norbuy in large quantities during EC festivals.Life Artist悦 己 生 活 家9%Official EC ChannelSA种草 Reach 拔草 ReactionOOH:Subway/TaxiMobile APPWeChat Group:“Daigou”;second-hand transaction Celebrity EndorsementPlacement:Movie;Game养草 Relevance复购 RepurchaseWOM(Post)Brand Official AccountKOL/Expert opinionDM:Text;SubscriptionsPrivate Domain:WeComMembership:Mini Program;Tmall MembershipMonthly Income 10k-20k CNYBrand Prestige：New brands：Efficacy：Price：WOM：KOC Index：Gen ZSophisticated MomFrontier White CollarKey influencing factors when choosing productNote:1.EC tags are cross-referenced from Alis 8 major demographics and SHJ data;2.Demographic characteristics data are from SHJ3.highlights consumers vulnerable stage that is the brand activation pointNote：marks the key points for brands to lay out;KOLs and media platforms are for reference only33Goal-orientedWork-life balanceI works with goals.I am busy but within an acceptable range.After theepidemic,I willthinkabout my next direction.I stop for better start.Self-pleasingCarpe DiemInstead of socializing,I prefer to enjoy life alone,spending time and money on my hobbies,such as luxury goods and pets.Follow trendsFashion loverI go to the club 2-3 times a week and like Hip-hop.I am also keen toexploreinternet-famous shops or niche,interestingcoffee shops.Life Artist悦己生活家9%She is 33 years old and lives in Shanghai.Her monthly income is more than 10,000 RMB.Being single,she enjoys her freedom.Her favorite skincare brands include Aesop,CPB,Guerlain and CHANEL.Petty-bourgeois KOL on Anfu RoadCoffee-addictedOffice LadyHer skincare philosophyIknow my skinvery well,and my daily skincare procedures are very comprehensive.My skin isnot sensitive,so Irarelycome across skincare productsnot suitable for me,and mypreferred productsarefewtoo.If the product was good last time I bought it,Id buy it again.Herconsumer journeyTrend followerI want good-feeling and good-looking ones!Official stores are always my choiceAdd to my true love list“I am attracted to things that look good or smell good.I wont go wrong if I follow beauty KOLs recommendations.”“I also check in at pop-up stores for fun and sometimes I find treasure products there!The first time I want to try a new product,I will go to the offline counter to try and then buy.Later,I will re-purchase it directly through e-commerceplatforms!“I would buy a new product only when the old one is used up.I dont stock up.My skin seems to really improve after using it,so I can mindlessly re-purchase it by adding it to my true love list!“I occasionally attend brand salons,and there to my surprise,I can learn better ways to use its products!Its easy for me to be influenced by friends and fashion KOLs who share the same tastes with me,and I like what they like too!“I usually pay attention to advertisements when I take the subwayto work.When I see them again when I watch dramasand variety shows,I become interested in them.仇仇-qiuqiuchichi是吃吃SavisLook晚晚学姐Price：KOC Index：New brands：Brand Prestige：Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒12%Post-85(44%),Post-80(30%)SHJ High-&Mid-Tier Cities(TGI:114,127)Badminton/TennisReadingRoad Trip/CampingDocumentaryMarried(72%)Have Kids(73%)Urban EliteActive&ProactiveMiddle ClassHigh Knowledge&High IncomeFamily-oriented Self-healingPay for time savingPilates/YogaSenior Middle ClassSophisticated MomSamplingBrand Mini Program种草 Reach 拔草 ReactionOTT:Smart TVSocial Platform:WeiboOffline Event:Promotion;Specialty store养草 Relevance复购 RepurchaseIn-store displayBrand Official AccountQ&A Platform:Zhihu;Baidu KnowsThey have a basic understanding of skincare.They focus on the inside more than the outside.They keep improvingtheir competence in life,allocating less time to beauty care.They have strong purchasing power.They are used tospending money on the necessities“and tend to purchase bulky items than fragmented consumption.They usuallykeep buying products from their trusted brands for a long time.Its easy for them to develop brand loyalty anddifficultto switch brands.They will stock up mostly used products during EC festivals and sales promotion activities.stove-boiled teaEducationDM:Text;SubscriptionsMembership:Mini Program;Tmall MembershipMonthly Income 10k-20k CNYEfficacy：WOM：Key influencing factors when choosing productNote:1.EC tags are cross-referenced from Alis 8 major demographics and SHJ data;2.Demographic characteristics data are from SHJ3.highlights consumers vulnerable stage that is the brand activation pointNote：marks the key points for brands to lay out35Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒125Career firstHigh achievementI realize my self-worth through work,hone my ability with all my mightand enrich myself allthe time.Family-orientedSense of responsibilityFamily is an important part of my life.I have high expectations for my childs future.Although I am busy,I will do my best to nurture my child.Spend sensiblySocial valueWhat I buy needs to match my identity.I am willing to spend money onbigitemsand enjoy the socialvalue brought by shopping.Her skincare philosophyI likesimpleskincare routine and dont want to burden my skin with too many procedures.I alwayschoose the brand I like best,among so many productswith different functions.I am alsowilling to try more efficient skincare methods such asbeautyclinicandbeauty salon.Herconsumer journeySkincare knowledge triggers the needFind corresponding products in trusted brandsValue for money whilst quality is ensuredUnlimited repurchaseThere must be products of similar efficacy suitable for me among the brands I trust.Sometimes I check the official media,and sometimes I search on Zhihu.I first take the sample to try,and if ok,duty-free shops or mini programs are very convenient to buy.When I know what to buy,it is easy for me to stock up.“In addition to stocking up in everyday life,I will also go for the discount activities hosted by some brands to stock upI have participated in VIP salons.Although I know it is for the purpose of selling goods,the additional knowledge of skincare and life I can experience there makes me trust the brand-I dont bother to change the brand,after all,it is a brand I am familiar with.I often learn skincare knowledge through social media and learn about skincare products with different functions”“I notice ads when watching OTT with my kid or go shopping on weekends.She is 33 years old,married with a child and lives in Shanghai.With a monthly income of over 50,000 RMB and a busy life,she realizes herself through work.Her favorite skincare brands include SK-II and Estee Lauder.Financial and Business Elitewho Have everything but timeCurious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党12%Post-00(33%),Post-95(26%)SHJ Low-Tier Cities(TGI:114)LARP/board gameMusic Festival/Live ShowNew-style Tea DrinkGame/ACGFashionStudentCurious BuyerBeauty loverTrend FollowerGen ZOverconsumingMoonlight ClanFrisbee/Soccer ballGen ZSmall-Town YouthShow off with brandsFrontier White CollarSAKOLLivestreaming:Celebritylivestreaming,Brand livestreaming种草 Reach 拔草 ReactionOOH:Residential,office buildings OTV:Iqiyi,Tencent,YoukuPlacement:Variety Show;Games养草 Relevance复购 RepurchaseSamplingInterest Group:QQIndoor OOH:In mallThey are the young generation who focus on lived experience.They are curious about everything,inlcuding skincare.They follow trends and try new products before they become popular.They keepupdating their skincare knowledge by self-learning.They have limited purchasing power due to limitedincome at their age,but their life value of living in the moment encourages them to overspend.Theycare about price,so they will impulsively shop during EC festivals and sales promotion activities.Monthly Income 10k CNY(93%)Single(42%)Private DomainMembership:Mini Program;Tmall membershipPrice：KOC Index：New brands：Brand Prestige：Efficacy：WOM：Key influencing factors when choosing productNote:1.EC tags are cross-referenced from Alis 8 major demographics and SHJ data;2.Demographic characteristics data are from SHJ3.highlights consumers vulnerable stage that is the brand activation pointNote：marks the key points for brands to lay out;KOLs and media platforms are for reference only37Curious Explorer好奇尝鲜党12%Strive for lovePursue a dreamWork brings me a sense of accomplishment.I work for financial freedomand wishto have the capital to do what I want.Love lifeEnjoy socializingIn my spare time,I like to hang out with friends and try the newest activities:Frisbee,camping,flag football,paddleboarding.Shop sensiblyDemand-orientedI am young and still inexperienced,so I learn about finance management and buyon demand.There are a wide range of products,and I believe there is always asuitablerange for me.Her skincare philosophy I have a good understanding of different skin types.In order toimprove the unstable skinandoccasional acne,I havetried manyproducts from different brands.Indaily life,I try VC in themorning and retinol at night.I will simplify my skincare routine whenmy skin is sensitive.Im stilllooking forthe skincare product I love all my life.Herconsumer journeyBeginner in the Workplacewho enjoys levelling up from 0 to 1She is 23 years old,single and from Chengdu.She is a freshman in society with a monthly income of 8,000 RMB.she has the will to fight for her pursuit.Her favorite skincare brands include Clinique,Winona,Biophyto-genesis and Larocheposay.Curiosity makes me spend moneyFriends sharing arouses my desire to try Curiosity makes me search,as a fan of Jiaqi LiGood to use is the most important“If I came across a sampling,I will try it.“My friends often share good skincare products in WeChat group,and their recommendation will not be badI follow a lot of beauty/lifestyle KOLs.I will read their recommendations and buy one to try when I have a demand.“After trying Jiaqi Lis recommended product,I found it worthy of its reputation,so I will buy more in his livestreaming during e-commerce festival!“I will repurchase the product if I feel good when using it,or I will try new ones.”The trend is hidden in our life.By watching TV shows,watching variety shows,journey to and from work,I will find brand new product advertisements!李佳琦Austin你好_竹子Price：KOC Index：New brands：Brand Prestige：Efficacy：WOM：Value Seeker 精 明 女 主 人15%Post-80(38%),Post-85(30%)SHJ Low-Tier Cities(TGI:161)Monthly Income 10k CNY(95%)YogaReadingFloriculture/GardeningPetContented MindYoung at heartRunning the houseCare for familySlow LivingSave MoneyWell-connectedCycling/MountaineeringUrban Blue CollarsSmall-Town Mature CrowdMarried(74%)Have Kids(74%)EC:Taobao;DouyinLivestreaming:Celebritylivestreaming,Brand self-livestreaming种草 Reach 拔草 ReactionOOH:mallNews app:ToutiaoLife Service APP:Meituan,DianpingOTT:Smart TVCelebrity Endorsement养草 Relevance复购 RepurchaseSamplingWOM:Friends&colleaguesShort Video:KuaishouThey are young at heart.They have mastered some skincare knowledge,and have advanced skincare needs suchas anti-aging and whitening.On one hand,they want to maintain a good condition through skincare;on the otherhand,they want to balance the family budget.Therefore,they buy the most cost-effective products within theirbudget.They are extremely open to information and relatively brand-loyal.They are willing to try new brands andproducts if they are influenced.They are price-sensitive,so they will shop during EC festivals and sales promotionactivities.DM:TextPrivate Domain:Douyin Fans ChatMembership:Tmall MembershipBeauty Lover Key influencing factors when choosing productNote:1.EC tags are cross-referenced from Alis 8 major demographics and SHJ data;2.Demographic characteristics data are from SHJ3.highlights consumers vulnerable stage that is the brand activation pointNote：marks the key points for brands to lay out39Value Seeker精明女主人15%Steady careerWith wisdomI am conscientious and dependable in my job.I work hard,and myrigorous teaching attitude has won the praise of students and theirparents.Family-orientedHousehold managementMy child has been studying in college,so there is less time required to run the house,but financial support also brings me certain pressure.Clever spendingRational and controlledMost of my income is saved.There are many aspects to spend money inmy life,so I need to watch every penny.Herskincare philosophy Even though I am no longer young,I still hope tokeep a good image.I want to let time go slowly,andI grow old slowly.If a productrecommended by my colleagues or friendsbelongsto a brand commonly seen on TV or mobile phone,I am willing to try it,but Iwill not spend muchtime and money on it.I willstock up on frequently used productsduring Double 11 orother e-commerce discount seasons.Herconsumer journeyShe is 46 years old,married and has a child.She lives in Shijiazhuang.She earns 8,000 RMB a month.She has a stable career and a happy family.Her favoriteskincare brands are L Oreal,Proya and Pechoin.Excellent Teacherwho setHigh Standardsfor Students andherelfReached by traditional advertisingSee what product that people around me useDiscount is an important reasonSometimes its used for yearsWhen I get together with friends and colleagues,skincare is a common topic of conversation.Sometimes when I see someone with good skin,I wonder what they are using and want to have it myself.“When I read news on Toutiao or watch Douyin,I can see all kinds of advertisements and recommendations”I will go to the store to get samples,but I still hope to buy them when there are special discounts,such as Double 11,618,etc.I have been accompanied by trusted brands for many years,and I will always use products with good effects.I often see advertisements for skincare products when I watch TV or go shopping.“I love Yili Ma.I want to buy all the products she endorses.Practical Buyer 大 碗 好 用 族34%Monthly Income Below 10k CNY(95%)Walking in park/JoggingSquare DancingPartyWatching TV/Variety ShowMinimalismLover of NatureHealth&WellnessDefensive consumptionEconomicalShoppingMarried(71%)Have Kids(69%)Post-80(39%),Post-85(29%)SHJ Low-tier cities(TGI:116)SamplingLivestreaming:Live commerce,Brand self-livestreamingOffline Promotion种草 Reach 拔草 ReactionTraditional TV AdWeChat SubscriptionSocial Platform:Weibo养草 Relevance复购 RepurchaseOffline Event:mallAudio Book app:XimalayaWeChat Group:“Daigou”;second-hand transactionThey pay less attention to skincare,and they do this only to maintain the natural state of skin,such as moisturizing,oilcontrol and cleansing,etc.They have little knowledge about skincare and very limited brand awareness.Theyhabitually buy their mostly used brand products and seldom change.They may change products only when theyhave new skincare needs.Though they are sensitive to prices,they have little access to discount information.Thus,they only buy when they have real needs.DM:TextSimple LifePeace&LeisureSmall-Town Mature CrowdUrban Blue CollarsPrice：KOC Index：New brands：Brand Prestige：Efficacy：WOM：Key influencing factors when choosing productNote:1.EC tags are cross-referenced from Alis 8 major demographics and SHJ data;2.Demographic characteristics data are from SHJ3.highlights consumers vulnerable stage that is the brand activation pointNote：marks the key points for brands to lay out41Practical Buyer 大碗好用族34%Small businessStable and idleAfter more than ten years of operation,my shop has accumulated goodreputation from nearby communities.There is no pressure to expand,and there isnot much room for growth.Family supportCare for the kidMy child has passed the infancy stage,and my and my in-laws help raise the child together,so I am free from heavy housework.Household incomeFrugal consumptionI have no personal income,so my personal consumption is relativelysimple,and non-essential thingsare generallynot purchased.Her skincare philosophy My skin is a little oily,so Iuse a cleanse every day,and then I put on some toner.Thats all,verysimple.The lotion is a productthat I accidentally started using a few years ago and Ihave been using ever since.I didnt buy much,and Ididnt pay much attentionto skincare,soI bought it directlyin supermarkets or shopping malls when I ran out.Herconsumer journeyShe is 36 years old,married and has a child.She is from Enshi,Hubei Province.As a self-employed business owner,her income is instable,and her most used skincare brand is Chando.A Fruit Shop OwnerwithWell-off Family and stable bussinessSkin problems trigger the needOccasionally see ads and feel interested when watching short videosDirect offline purchase Ill buy it again when I need it“Sometimes I would see introductions in short videos or live broadcasts,but they were forgotten later”I bought it while shopping.I bought what I needed at that moment,and I would consider a set if it was a better deal.If nothing happens,Ill keep buying it.Its working fine.“My skin is oily,and acne will occur if I dont clean my face carefully for a long time”“I also know the balance of water and oil,so I occasionally use toner”Section threeThe right message:How to attract the target audiences for growth?4243Reflection 1In addition to the crossover of geographical and age distribution,consumers of this year also have different mixes in the choice of brands.For brands with segmented product lines,which group is most valuable?How does the brand set out its plan?They are passionate about skincare and willing to trynewbrandsand products.They have purchasingpower,but dont blindly over-trust in big names.Theychoose products by practical factors like ingredients,efficacy and the sense on skin.Product selection habit6 types of skincare consumersBrands with high%La Mer,SK-II,Estee Lauder,KiehlsDior,Estee Lauder,Lancome,LOral ParisLancome,Chanel,LOral Paris,OlaySHISEIDO,Dove,WINONA,VaselinePechoin,Chando,OSM,WINONAChando,Proya,Nivea,VaselineThey loves beauty and care about skincare.Theyunderstand their own skin type and choose productsmatching with their skin,but they do not have deepknowledge of skincare.They have many interests thattake their time and energy in life.They have a basic understanding of skincare.Theyfocus on the inside more than the outside,so theyallocate less time to beauty care.They have strongpurchasing power and are used to“spending moneyon the necessities”.Besides,they tend to make one-offpurchases.They follow trends and try new products before theybecome popular.They keep updating their skincareconcept by self-learning.They have limited purchasingpower,but their life value of living in the momentencourages them overspend.They master some skincare knowledge,and they haveanti-aging,whitening and other advanced skincareneeds.They wanttomaintaina goodconditionthrough skincare,but they always buy the most cost-effective products to balance the familybudget.Their demands for skincare are only to maintain thenatural state of skin,such as moisturizing,oil control andcleaning,etc.They have little knowledge of skincareand very limited brand awareness,so they seldomchange brands.Future high opportunity brandsLife Artist悦 己 生 活 家Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Consumer x Brand=?Consumer x Brand:opportunities and thinking of layout44Consumer x Consumer Journey:emphases of layout They are willing to try new things and often influence their friends to buy.They should be the first to know about new trends.To win them,brands need to“penetrate quietly.In face of complicated new product information,striking the skincare pain points is not enough-every bit of brand&product concept must connect to every aspect of their life.Once they are convinced,they will bring significant added value to the brand,and then they will trust in the brand and maintain the brand experience.Like Beauty Queen,curious explorers need something new.When cued by words like all girls place orders in the live streaming,they would be sure to buy.Although discounts and promotions are important to them,they gain added value in social currency from new information exchange amongst acquaintances and endorsements from celebrities.Also price sensitive,but less likely to switch brands.ReachRelevanceReach,RepurchaseReach,ReactionReach,ReactionReactionLife Artist悦 己 生 活 家Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族Habitual Follower习惯信徒Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人Beauty Queen美容大王44Consumer x Media:opportunities and thinking of layout45思考2Media equality makes people gather around the top media platforms.How can we effectively seek access to data in different media ecosystems and further ensure growth,and balance brand awareness and product sales?Consumer x Media=?未来高机遇媒介Life Artist悦 己 生 活 家Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Exposure media:eye-catching OOH like malls,offline events,Moment ads,etc.Emphases of consumer journey6 types of skincare consumersMedia touchpointsFocus on Relevance：social media contents,such as posts on seeding platforms,brand official account,KOL/expert opinionWin trust:official information,peer recommendation and CRM are all important,including brand official account,member activities and community,etc.Exposure conversion:advertise new things everywhere,from office buildings to OTV,from commuting OOH to content sponsorship，make a quick,impulsive order in live streamingExposure conversion:celebrity endorsement and brand endorsement on TV/OTV/OTT reinforce their choice and provide great topic for party.They also stock up during promotionConversion:media directly related to shopping,such as e-commerce festival,livestream shopping,offline promotion activities,etc.With the rise of online video and culture tribes,consumershave more rights to choose contents and platforms.Theprogress of technology and the equality of information haveled to a concentration of the number of media platforms,and the competition in advertising becomes increasinglyfierce.The content platforms are highly centralized,and theexposure media are much the same,so the difference is upto the content layout.4546Life Artist悦 己 生 活 家Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Passion for life,Social-driven,Appeal-drivenCarpe Diem,Self-pleasing,Hedonistic,Life is about experiencing Personality&View of lifeInterests&culture tribesActive&Proactive,Urban Elite,Love family，Self-healingTrend follower,Try New Things,Fashion and Love BeautySlow Living,Satisfaction&Happiness,Passionate about savingSimple Life,Love Nature,Health&Wellness,EconomicalMusic,Sports,Culture,ArtCulture,Dance,Sports,MovieGames,Sports,MusicCulture,LifeShoppingSports,Car,Culture6 types of skincare consumers思考3How can Shanhaijins consumer data and our in-depth insights into individual consumer be applied in different media ecosystems?Consumer x Content=?未来高机遇内容RED Consumer x Content:opportunities and thinking of layoutSection fourThe right activation:How to apply the insight in respective media ecosystem?47Consumer x Content=？How can Shanhaijins consumer data and our in-depth insights into individual consumer be applied in different media ecosystems?Consumer x Brand=？In addition to the crossover of geographical and age distribution,consumers of this year also have different mixes in the choice of brands.For brands with segmented product lines,which group is most valuable?How does the brand set out its plan?Consumer x Media=？Media equality makes people gather around the top media platforms.How can we effectively seek access to data in different mediaecosystems and further ensure growth,and balance brand awareness and product sales?Source：SHJ 2022 Wave 1(May-July)Base:Women aged 15-49 who have recently purchased skincare products;%represents the percentage of the total audience of this categoryQ:“Brand Purchased/consumed in P1Y”Brand shows a non-normal distribution in 6 skincare consumer types49We find that all brands have their own special distribution in 6 skincare consumer personas,which means that brand personality is closely related to consumer personality.Brands can anchor key growth groups by analysing their own brand personality.Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党15.4%Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人12.4%Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族19.2auty Queen美 容 大 王27.7%Life Artist悦 己 生 活 家13.8%Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒11.5%0-2k2k 5 3-41-2The amount of money spent on skincare products last time(RMB)Number of brands purchased in one monthIndex:246Index:271Note：A brand may belong to different categories of brand trends.with,circle the brands showing more than once.TOP3 key groups for different types of brands50Lifestyle brands Noble Lady brands High-efficacybrands Active-for-healthbrands China Chic brands The average price of a single product is more than 1,000 yuanBelong to famous international beauty groupsProvide consumers with luxury experienceClaim natural plant extraction,aromatherapy skincare and other natural health conceptsAdvocate clean beauty,minimalist skincare,environmental protection and other brand philosophiesImprove skin condition through high concentration ingredients and specially formulated formulasWith strong technological strength or dermatology,clinic backgroundFocus on solving sensitive,acne problems,restoring skin barrier healthMost are backed by biology lab background or clinical dataSome are traditional Chinese brands based on Chinese skincare concepts such as Chinese prescription and herbal medicinesSome are those that keep up with the trends,and benefited from the rise of e-commerce platformLife Artist悦 己 生 活 家Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Habitual Follower习 惯 信 徒Life Artist悦 己 生 活 家Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Value SeekerCurious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党Beauty Queen美 容 大 王Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人Practical Buyer大 碗 好 用 族Value Seeker精 明 女 主 人Curious Explorer好 奇 尝 鲜 党精 明 女 主 人Value SeekerTOP 1TOP 2TOP 3Consumer x Content=？How can Shanhaijins consumer data and our in-depth insights into individual consumer be applied in different media ecosystems?Consumer x Brand=？In addition to the crossover of geographical and age distribution,consumers of this year also have different mixes in the choice of brands.For brands with segmented product lines,which group is most valuable?How does the brand set out its plan?Consumer x Media=？Media equality makes people gather around the top media platforms.How can we effectively seek access to data in different mediaecosystems and further ensure growth,and balance brand awareness and product sales?Take Beauty Queen As An ExampleChoose strategic target based on“brand consciousness”and“skincare consumption”Understand the target profiles and interest touchpointsPrecisely capture the target applying to specific platformsSource:Yuntu;Datastory53As for Beauty Queen,we select strategic opportunity groups according to brand awareness and skincare consumption“in Byte Ecology Beauty&Skincare Related Groups in China Top 100 Shared Interests Groups in Ocean EngineCustomized Labels Related To Beauty QueenCosmetic Ingredient LoversThey not only love beauty,but also like to study for it.They are a group who believe in science to make beauty.Cover range:305,965,861Last updated:2022/10/16Medical Beauty LoversThey pay attention to contents about medical beauty,and they are a group who love cosmetics,pets,etc.Cover range:34,353,400Last updated:2022/10/16Fashion TrendsetterThey are a group of trendsetters who are interested in beauty,fashion and dressing,etc.Cover range:315,862,025Last updated:2022/10/16Refined-life Goods LoversThey are a group who love articles of daily use,especially refined goodsCover range:398,274,140Last updated:2022/11/3Behavior DefinitionUser behaviors:Effective play,reading,comment,favorites(Top news only),share,likeFrequency:User-defined,over 6 timesPeriod:2022/7/16-2022/8/14Keywords保养护肤沉浸式护肤美容护肤护肤分享高端护肤修复皮肤护肤干货科学护肤护肤好物专业护肤精油脸部护肤改善皮肤深层补水院线护肤皮肤保养芦荟护肤甘油护肤晚间护肤冬季护肤健康护肤精选护肤脸部保养自愈系护肤乳液精华液精华赫莲娜黑绷带hr黑绷带雅诗兰黛娇韵诗娇兰Source:Yuntu;Datastory54Beauty Queens have different content preferences on different platforms,so it is necessary to choose an entry point that is more relevant to the platform,customize the output content,and communicate effectively with themOutfitUnboxingSneakersHandbagsSkincare TutorialsSkincare TipsMakeup TutorialsProduct ReviewNight ClubTravelPetsLate Night FoodSpecialty CuisineStore ExploringLife VlogCampingFitnessPilates/YogaTennis/BadmintonHikingDancingFrisbee/Flag RugbySkiingSurfingConcertsExhibitionStand-up comedyCraftingDrama/OperaCareer TipsBusiness InsightsFamily EthicsMinor LanguagesLife TipsInterviewsPurchase TipsHome InspectionAuto ScienceExperience ReviewMedical Beauty SuppliesMedical Beauty ClinicsMedical Beauty ReviewsOutfitUnboxingSneakersHandbagsSkincare TutorialsSkincare TipsMakeup TutorialsProduct ReviewNight ClubTravelPetsLate Night FoodSpecialty CuisineStore ExploringLife VlogCampingFitnessPilates/YogaTennis/BadmintonHikingDancingFrisbee/Flag RugbySkiingSurfingConcertsExhibitionStand-up comedyCraftingDrama/OperaCareer TipsBusiness InsightsFamily EthicsMinor LanguagesLife TipsInterviewsPurchase TipsHome InspectionAuto ScienceExperience ReviewMedical Beauty SuppliesMedical Beauty ClinicsMedical Beauty Reviews809010011012013014015016017018010 %05%Source:Yuntu;Datastory55Beauty Queens pay more attention to daily interests such as fitness,pet,concert,etc.on Douyin,while their content labels on Red are more related to lifestyle and female fashion,such as outfit,travel,exhibition,etc.PREFERENCEPENETRATIONContent Preference IndexTGIPenetration of Affinity Content%CONTENTCONTENTSource:Yuntu;DatastoryDifferences in content labels on different platforms:Douying-daily interests;Red-fashion lifestyle56Daily InterestsFitness,Pets,Concerts/Stand-up,Comedy/Night ClubFashion LifestyleOutfit,Travel,Exhibition/Store Exploring,Pilates/YogaOutfitUnboxingSneakersHandbagsSkincare TutorialsSkincare TipsMakeup TutorialsProduct ReviewNight ClubTravelPetsLate Night FoodSpecialty CuisineStore ExploringLife VlogCampingFitnessPilates/YogaTennis/BadmintonHikingDancingFrisbee/Flag RugbySkiingSurfingConcertsExhibitionStand-up comedyCraftingDrama/OperaCareer TipsBusiness InsightsFamily EthicsMinor LanguagesLife TipsInterviewsPurchase TipsHome InspectionAuto ScienceExperience ReviewMedical Beauty SuppliesMedical Beauty ClinicsMedical Beauty ReviewsOutfitUnboxingSneakersHandbagsSkincare TutorialsSkincare TipsMakeup TutorialsProduct ReviewNight ClubTravelPetsLate Night FoodSpecialty CuisineStore ExploringLife VlogCampingFitnessPilates/YogaTennis/BadmintonHikingDancingFrisbee/Flag RugbySkiingSurfingConcertsExhibitionStand-up comedyCraftingDrama/OperaCareer TipsBusiness InsightsFamily EthicsMinor LanguagesLife TipsInterviewsPurchase TipsHome InspectionAuto ScienceExperience ReviewMedical Beauty SuppliesMedical Beauty ClinicsMedical Beauty Reviews809010011012013014015016017018010 %05%PREFERENCEPENETRATIONContent Preference IndexTGIPenetration of Affinity Content%Thank you58WPP Campus 399 Hengfeng RoadShanghai 200070,ChinaEssenceMediacom is GroupMs newest and largest agency,committed to delivering marketing breakthroughs for brands.It has disrupted the old models across media,creative,innovation and analytics to find new opportunities for advertisers and deliver truly integrated media solutions.Borne out of two pioneering agencies,EssenceMediacom fuses Essences performance,data,analytics and creative technology DNA with MediaComs scaled multichannel audience planning and strategic media expertise.As part of WPP,the worlds largest marketing communications services group,and GroupM,WPPs consolidated media investment management arm,we have access to the richest data,most robust benchmarks and most advanced capabilities in the market.This helps us provide comprehensive solutions to all marketing challenges.Our breakthrough ambition is underpinned by our commitment to continuous learning.We aim to ensure our people fulfil their potential by investing their whole-person wellbeing,careers and capabilities,which in turn helps grow our clients businesses.EssenceMediacom,with 10,000 people across 120 offices in 96 markets,is one of the worlds leading communications specialists,with billings of more than US$21 billion(Source:COMvergence,2021).Its global client roster includes adidas,Coca-Cola(TCCC),Dell,Google,Hasbro,Mars,NBCUniversal,Procter&Gamble,Richemont,Shell,Sony and Uber.
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Idrica：2022 年水技术趋势报告（英文版）（22 页）.pdf
Redefining the utilities of the futureWater Technology Trends 2022Water Technology Trends 20222 ContentsForeword 03 AMI:from meters to business intelligence 04 Digital twins:transforming the real world through the virtual 07 Intelligent asset management:the key to sustainability 10 Geographic Information Systems(GIS):data at the service of efficiency 13 Artificial Intelligence:building learning into processes 16 5G:turning the future into reality 18 Conclusions 21Water Technology Trends 20223 ForewordSince the pandemic began,utilities have had no choice but to adapt to the new scenario of uncertainty.Over the last two years,we have learned about the importance of sound water management in our daily lives,and how innovation can open the floodgates to the future.Our responsibility in the water industry is to ensure that future generations have access to clean drinking water and proper sanitation,in line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.For this to happen,utilities will need to digitally transform water cycle management over the next few years.Citizens in the 21st century are demanding intelligent use of our most precious resource.In this sense,growing concerns about the environmental impact of processes will encourage the adoption of technologies that reduce our water,carbon and energy footprints.On the road to tackling these current challenges,we will only succeed if we have a solid business vision to guide the transformation of data into information for decision-making.This is how utilities can determine the best way to move forward.The tech-nology trends for 2022 reviewed in this whitepaper(Digital Twins,AMI,GIS,5G,AI and intelligent asset management)will bring innovative use cases that will transform the industry.The time to build a more sustainable world is now.The future of water is not only about technology,but also about people.Unlike machines,we can combine technologies and knowledge to transform todays management.The journey to unlocking value through digital transformation has just started,and the most innovative utilities are already on board.Jaime BarbaCEO,Idrica 4 Trend#1Water Technology Trends 2022:AMIAMI:from meters to business intelligenceAMI(Advanced Metering Infrastructure)is fundamental in a world where data is the most valuable asset,given the amount of information it can produce.More and more water utilities are realizing the value of measuring consumption beyond billing.These infrastructures can improve all business processes,because of the large numbers of sensors deployed on them compared to other IoT systems in the water industry.For some years now,water utilities have been investing in the digital transformation of micro-metering,not as an end in itself,but as a way to extract value from data and turn information into business intelligence.Growing investment in AMI globally is intended to help businesses and consumers make better decisions,not just reactive or corrective ones.They help them to predict.The road to Big DataDevelopments in meters are one of the most important advances of the last 50 years in the water industry.From the first innovations,centering on faster,remote reading(walk-by and drive-by),which was mainly geared towards billing,the meter becomes an IoT sensor that transmits useful information to digitally transform all processes in AMI systems.If the term AMR(Automatic Meter Reading)refers to remote reading using smart meters connected to communication devices,AMI goes one step further.It focuses not only on data collection,but also on its integration and processing using Big Data technologies.Platforms are a key element of these infrastructures,which are the most mature in the micro-metering field.Their aim is to offer value-added services and to manage water resources more effi-ciently.For example,developing algorithms to detect leaks and predict demand.To achieve this,AMI must ideally process consumption data on an hourly basis with optimum quality.Compared to proprietary protocols and LPWAN technologies,such as SigFox and Lora,new communication protocols(NB-IoT,5G)are helping to make this a reality due to their greater scope,penetration and coverage.In addition,they enable more efficient battery management,which is essential if we take into account smart meterings need to frequently send data.Meters have become IoT sensors that help to digitally transform all processes.0102035 Water Technology Trends 2022:AMIConnecting consumption data with other sources of information,such as SCADA,CMMS,ERP,GIS and IoT sensors,means that companies can optimize all their processes.Their integration into a digital twin,among other use cases,is essential to simu-late scenarios accurately in order to gauge the networks response to events and make better decisions.It also reduces OPEX and helps to predict water demands in advance.Benefits over and above billingAMI deployment reduces the volume of unbilled water in the distribution network by conducting hourly water balances.This enables us to improve overall system efficiency by detecting fraud and locating leaks at an early stage and notifying customers accord-ingly.In addition,remote reading helps to reduce energy consumption and the environmental impact of other processes,such as operators having to travel around to take visual readings.Data analysis opens the door to useful services such as alerts for domestic leaks and notifications to social services after a change in the consumption patterns of vulnerable people.Greater trans-parency in the relationship between utilities and the general public is another of the advantages.Thanks to AMI,households can see the liters of water they use in real time to make better,more informed decisions.In addition,billing based on actual,rather than estimated,readings increases satisfaction and brings down billing-related complaints.Increased operational efficiencyMore sustainable use of resourcesValue-added services for citizens6 Water Technology Trends 2022:AMICarlos TejedorSmart Metering&Instrumentation Specialist,IdricaWe have recently witnessed water outages in countries such as the United States,which we thought would be spared from these disruptions,until now.These events,along with others caused by climate change,are driving a greater global awareness of water as a limited resource.Today,society demands a commitment from companies and utilities to ensure responsible water consumption,in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.According to the World Bank,by 2030,there will be a 40%world shortfall between the forecast demand for water and the amount available.In the light of this situation,govern-ments and the different social partners are highly likely to support technologies that represent a step forward in terms of sustainability.AMI is one of these technologies,as it helps us to take the first step towards process improvement through metering.Given that it is the system that generates the largest amount of information in the industry,its impact ripples out to the entire business community.In this sense,more and more utilities understand that these infrastructures not only facilitate billing,but also serve to improve leak detection,forecast demand through algorithms,increase customer satisfaction,fine tune digital twin simulations and reduce CO2 emissions.Digital transformation in the water industry will gather speed in the coming years.The increased volume of available data will require the implementation of agnostic solu-tions,capable of integrating information from different sources.Right now,many water utilities use different communication technologies(NB-IoT,LoRa,Sigfox,etc.)and meters manufactured by different vendors.Therefore,Big Data platforms that standardize information and help us to convert it into business intelligence will be one of the main trends for 2022.The increased use of sensors we expect to see poses one of the main challenges for AMI:the coexistence of smart metering with other smart devices.Fortunately,5G provides an answer to this problem,thanks to its ability to connect millions of devices in a small area(MIoT).We are still investigating the use cases linked to this new genera-tion of technology,but we already know that it will help us to manage critical infrastructures and be more efficient.AMI is also the direct interface between utilities and consumers,which is why our commitment to this infra-structure means advancing transparency objectives for citizens.By making consumption information available to them,we are helping to promote responsible water use.This is also true for companies,as this technology helps them to calculate their water footprint.The search for water efficiency,both in water utilities and among citizens,will drive investment in AMI in the coming years.Therefore,awareness of how these infrastructures can transform both billing and all the processes related to the management of water,our most precious resource,will be fundamental.2022:more metering for better managementDigital twins promote two-way communication between utilities and citizens.7 Water Technology Trends 2022:Digital TwinsTrend#2transforming the real world through the virtual Digital Twins:When discussing the impact of digital twins in the water industry,not all experts do so from a common standpoint about this technology,though perhaps the most widely accepted definition is that they are a virtual copy of the water supply system,simulating how it behaves.As a proxy for real behavior,digital twins help us to make better decisions thanks to the holistic view they provide of the system and their ability to simulate real and fictitious scenarios.They anticipate the response of the network to any circumstance affecting operations,whether it has occurred before or not,helping utilities to assess different scenarios.To do this,both the physical and dynamic aspects of the system must be represented,i.e.,the virtual representation of physical assets must be combined with the simulation of their behavior in the digital environment.The Digital Twin(DT)philosophy has been around since the 1960s when it was used by NASA to operate and maintain systems remotely.In 2003,the concept was finally consolidated by Dr.Michael Grieves,as a tool to optimize the management of a products entire life cycle in an industrial environment.Due to its potential,DT technology has recently been implemented in other areas such as infrastructure management,including the water industry.In fact,today we can find application cases in drinking water distribution systems where it has become easier to implement thanks to the large-scale deployment of sensors in recent years.Breakthroughs are also being made in this sense in irri-gation and in sanitation and sewage systems.A recent revolution in the water industryDigital twins need large amounts of data and information from the physical system to function.In other words,the development of use cases and practical applications depends on sensors and the information provided by the digital systems used,such as SCADAs,GIS and CMMS.Today,many companies have this information,so the next challenge for them is to concentrate,combine and standardize it into a single platform,which serves to feed the digital twin with real-world data.8 Water Technology Trends 2022:Digital TwinsWhy is there so much interest in digital twins?It is no coincidence that the current scenario of uncertainty has accelerated the adoption of this technology.Some of the most interesting benefits of digital twins,which have gained special relevance in recent years,are the following:ResilienceDigital twins improve the ability to adapt quickly and safely to any circumstance,whether it has happened before or not.This includes emergencies,health alerts and climate change-related events.Testing new ideas and changes virtually,before making a decision in the real system,minimizes risks,time and costs.Digital twins anticipate problems and identify the measures needed to prevent emergencies or minimize their consequences.In short,they ensure that,even in critical situations and in complex distribution systems,the water supply will remain available 24/7.EfficiencyDigital twins can help to optimize systems now and in the future from an operational and planning standpoint.Thanks to the holistic view they provide,decisions are made by considering their impact on the different processes occurring in the system.For example,energy costs can be reduced by establishing the best pumping schedules taking into account the hourly price of energy,whilst also keeping the systems hydraulic parameters under control.Energy consumption can also be reduced through more efficient asset operation and system planning,taking into account energy use associ-ated with the design of new infrastructure.Customer-centric managementTwenty-first-century citizens are demanding more infor-mation and better service,and they are also an essential part of the management of water distribution systems.Accordingly,digital twins need to engage citizens in order to provide them with information and to adapt water system management to cater for their needs.Thus,they can receive information on service disruptions in advance,whether due to planned interventions in the network or to an emergency.In addition,the operation of the system can be adapted depending on the needs of critical users,such as hospitals,to ensure supply in any possible scenario.Yet that is not all:the challenges we are currently facing,such as increased demand due to urban growth and the scarcity of water,require water utilities and citizens as end users to work together.For example,providing users with access to detailed information about their consumption will lead to better actions and awareness of responsible water use policies.SustainabilityThere is strong support for the new concept of sustain-able cities.Their objective is to adapt to climate change through planning,optimal infrastructure management and citizen participation.The technology used in urban water systems means that they can be operated safely and efficiently,with the aim of reducing water and energy consumption.They also promote two-way communication between utilities and citizens,who can now address new challenges and receive information on how their actions improve resource management.010302049 2022:the future is nowInterest in digital twins is growing,with new success stories being added every year.The most innovative international utilities have already included them in their strategic plans.They are no longer just a good idea for the future,and many utilities have already put specific actions down on paper.This ties in with the commitment to digital transformation.Once processes have been digitally transformed and infrastructures have been equipped with sensors,the next logical step is to extract value from all this data.Digital twins are one of the best tools to do this,as they deliver a holistic,cross-cutting vision of all the data they compile.Their commissioning must include the following components:a platform inte-grating all the information collected from assets and infrastructure,hydraulic models and advanced analytics,and a powerful,user-friendly dashboard system.Digital twins go way beyond simply simulating scenarios:one of their main features is the development of use cases,understood as the ability to solve problems and optimize day-to-day operations.Their successful deployment will require utilities to overcome a number of challenges in the coming years,which may act as a barrier to market uptake.For example,insufficient data quality and its location in isolated systems that are difficult to connect,or the intrinsic complexity of running a simulation model that must be kept permanently up-to-date and must operate in real time.In addition,the investment must be coupled with an innovative orga-nization and culture if it is to be successful.If there is something implicit in digital twins,it is a new way of working.At international level,more and more working groups are focusing on this technology.In short,in 2022 and beyond,digital twins will be one of the tools most commonly used to tackle the new challenges facing the water industry.Pilar ConejosDigital Twin Manager,IdricaWater Technology Trends 2022:Digital Twins10 Water Technology Trends 2022:Intelligent Asset ManagementTrend#3Intelligent asset management:the key to sustainabilityThe water industry has always had to deal with the challenge of proper asset management and has used different policies and practices to maintain and renew them over the years.In recent years,leading water utilities have been building intelligent asset management into their processes.As a result of the deployment of sensors on their infrastruc-ture and the implementation of other technologies such as micro-metering,GIS and SCADAs,utilities have an ever-increasing volume of information available on their assets.In this context,intelligent management integrates and organizes all this data in order to make better deci-sions.It advances on the conventional approach,which is characterized by corrective maintenance.Today,the water industry is adding intelligent manage-ment with the ultimate goal of maximizing efficiency.Although utilities have varying degrees of digital maturity,there is a definite trend towards moving in this direction.Based on experience,the application of technology paves the way for different use cases.For example,the history of work orders carried out on an asset can help assess the risk of failure and determine when it should be replaced.Thus,utilities can extend the lifetime of assets,anticipate replacements,adjust maintenance tasks and prevent outages.In addition,these systems help to pinpoint the most problematic materials,making real preventive maintenance possible and even guiding future investments.In addition,the management of pumps and other operating elements can optimize their energy consumption and provide better service.In short,more efficient resource management brings significant economic and environmental benefits by reducing costs and energy consumption.It also optimizes productivity,ensures service availability and reduces downtimes.11 Smart CMMS:taking maintenance to the next levelAutomated Computerized Maintenance Management Systems(CMMS)are the best example of the applica-tion of technology to management and maintenance when combined with intelligent management.They have already become an essential tool in the introduction of best practices and are valuable in addressing resource scarcity.In addition,they help utilities to obtain certifi-cations related to new environmental and organizational standards,such as ISO 55000.There are numerous benefits to implementing these systems,thus guaranteeing ROI.The investment implies improved safety for facility and equipment users.It also enhances product quality,reducing costs and giving the utility a competitive advantage.By increasing production capacity and decreasing the probability of failures in systems and facilities,service availability is boosted and,by extension,the satisfaction of internal and end users increases.In addition,utilities can optimize their administration processes by directly managing work orders using a mobile tool and drawing on the administrative support provided by the CMMS.This streamlines the management,organization and planning of maintenance work.In terms of costs,the reduction in the use of spare parts and the increased productivity of the facilities frees up working hours and cuts down idle times.Thus,cash flow improves,and profitability rises.Moreover,the optimization of preventive maintenance on facility elements usually reduces the energy used by mechanical equipment by 5%to 10%.Ensuring they are in good working order and monitoring their consumption enables proactive,automatic action to be taken in the Management inputsThere are a number of essential inputs required for sound asset management.First of all,operators must have a comprehensive list of the master data involved in the production process.This inventory includes the characteristics associated with each asset:economic(acquisition and replacement cost,cumulative depre-ciation,etc.),technical(inherent to each type of device,such as power)and operational(theoretical operating conditions,tolerances,estimated availability,curves,etc.).The relationships between assets,such as topological connections and asset hierarchies,must also be recorded.Transactional data are another key input.They contain different types of data,for example,that obtained from micro-metering and sensor technology,which are closely related to the Internet of Things(IoT).They also include information on incidents,such as their cost,downtimes and idle times,by their cause and origin.This group of elements also includes consumption estimates,generated by a mathematical model based on predicted or simulated conditions,together with a log of the work conducted on the assets in a CMMS system.This information is used by Artificial Intelligence(AI)and Machine Learning(ML)based algorithmic modules to suggest the most appropriate actions to be taken.The circle closes as the results of these actions become a new input for the system,feeding the AI and ML engines.CMMS are an essential tool in the introduction of best practices.Water Technology Trends 2022:Intelligent Asset ManagementRafael RubioHead of IT Operations,Idrica12 event of any deviations.This is particularly important in a context marked by global warming,since improvements in energy efficiency help to mitigate the impact of the activities that need to be carried out.A key part of CMMS is the automation of supply procure-ment in the warehouse.This enables the system to place the necessary orders to ensure facility maintenance,according to previously established minimum indicators.This reduces downtimes when replacing parts as stock is available.Finally,it is important to highlight how the mobility tool included in these systems increases maintenance manage-ment efficiency.The geolocation of fleets,together with the optimization of maintenance routes,leads to a reduction in travel time and distances,leading to a smaller carbon footprint and reducing related costs.In general,these tools increase productivity,reduce admin-istration time,and collect field data in digital format.They also serve to train new technical staff by providing them with different procedures,manuals,videos and photo-graphs of work orders that have already been completed.Roadmap for 2022Over the next few years,intelligent asset management is set to grow dramatically in the water industry.In a world that is increasingly concerned about environmental sustain-ability,the larger amounts of data available,provided by infrastructure sensors,will enable companies to progress towards more efficient resource management.One of the main challenges lies in overcoming the tech-nological complexity inherent to this project,as smaller utilities do not usually have sufficient technical and financial resources to tackle this issue.These utilities will need to rely on the support of external partners that combine technology and expertise,if they are to succeed.In addition,concerns about cybersecurity will lead the industry to demand appropriate security mechanisms to protect facilities and production processes from unau-thorized access.Globally,we expect an upsurge in projects related to productivity and optimal resource consumption in 2022.Intelligent asset management will be mainstreamed by the most innovative utilities,given the potential it has to boost efficiency and guarantee service availability.Water Technology Trends 2022:Intelligent Asset Management13 Water Technology Trends 2022:GISTrend#4Geographic Information Systems(GIS):data at the service of efficiencyIn recent years,Geographic Information Systems(GIS)have become an essential tool for water utilities.These systems enable companies to integrate and represent an ever-increasing flow of information,driven by digital transformation and advances in infrastructure sensors,although this is not an end in itself.The ultimate goal is to manage water more efficiently and effectively.In practice,any data with geospatial content can be represented in a GIS,including satellite and drone images,sensor information and vector data.This enables us to bring together the value of the location and its informa-tion in a single tool,where it can be centrally managed.Visualization is dynamic and collaborative,since maps can be shared and distributed on different platforms.GIS help to understand patterns and trends,and to analyze data and establish relationships between them.They also help to monitor changes that water utilities make to their infrastructure.The data insights they provide help managers solve problems on the road to greater sustainability.Any geolocated data multiplies its original value by three,since visualizing alphanumerical data in a location provides the user with crucial information to guide real actions.In short,thanks to these systems,companies can extract value from their data to improve their business processes.From data to efficient water managementGood geospatial orientation in data interpretation,performed by a GIS specialist,makes for better decisions in the water industry.For example,proper understanding of a terrains orography makes it easier to choose the best location for pipelines and the connections between them.In terms of the creation of typologies,GIS help with the layout of different hydraulic elements(valves,nodes,filters,plugs.)so that they comply with topological rules.Although they can be adapted to each companys needs,there are a series of minimum requirements that must be taken into account,such as the calculation of the volume of water to be carried by each pipe according to its diameter and nodes.This is just one example of how GIS help to manage water.The figure of the GIS specialist is gaining in importance in water utilities,thanks to their analyses,interpretation and spatial management of data.But once the data is avail-able,what can utilities do with it to be more efficient?This is the question we must answer in every scenario.14 Water Technology Trends 2022:GISInnovative use cases in the water industryThe popularity of GIS in the water industry ties in with the capabilities it delivers across the entire water cycle.Some of the most innovative use cases we are already seeing in the industry include:Drinking water Wastewater Irrigation GIS help utilities minimize water service interruptions following inter-ventions in the distribution network.The information they provide about the branches and pipes affected by repair work or a leak determines which assets need to be shut down to minimize any negative effects.They also identify and alert users when their water supply has to be cut off.These systems also collect vital infor-mation to prevent network failures,such as the material the pipes are made of or the date they were installed.By combining data with the geographic element in the geospatial analysis of the pipes,it is possible to intelligently guide inspections and even detect branches in use that should no longer be operational.The geolocation of field work is another important use case in this area,from the mapping and tracking of routes to generating information about the task performed together with its location.GIS are the perfect partner for waste-water-based epidemiology,which has come to the fore during the coronavirus crisis.The analysis of the presence of certain viruses in the population,combined with geolocated information from pipes,connections and sewerage branches,enables us to draw maps of contagion in cities,and provides us with information about the areas with the highest virus incidence,together with other data such as population density and age,which can assist the health authorities in the measures they need to take.Another use case in which these systems are useful is flood prevention in cities.Thanks to remote sensors,possible blockages and poor sewer drainage capacity can be pinpointed.This enables municipalities to take action to prevent flooding after a heavy rainfall event.In the current context of environmental concerns,GIS are essential for efficient irrigation.When combined with tech-nologies such as sensors(Internet of Things),remote sensing and satellite imagery,irrigation associations can visualize the volume of water at each location on their plots in real time.If it is higher than desired,the farmer receives an alarm to adjust the irriga-tion flow,or to check whether there is a leak in a drip irrigation element.The same thing happens if the flow rate is lower than expected,which could signal a blocked pipe.In addition,the geolocated inventory of pipes,with information about what they are made of and the date they were installed,is key to preventing bursts and assessing damage.Thanks to GIS,irrigation associations can prioritize which assets need to be replaced before they begin to fail.Other preventive areas include soil preparation if soil moisture remains too high due to the presence of fertil-izers or nitrates.Irrigation can also be suspended if the water level is too high.15 Water utilities are committed to implementing GIS and linking them to their corporate systems and tools to solve key aspects of day-to-day management.It is no longer just a matter of geolocating infrastructure elements and obtaining information about them.Instead,advanced use cases are being developed,such as real-time monitoring of field work through operator-managed mobile applications.Integration with GPS systems and mathematical models is already a reality in leading utilities.In addition,work is being done to achieve optimum water quality by adjusting pipeline parameters and predictive models.3D visualization of data will be a key area over the next few years.It will enable users,for example,to see which floor of a building the water pressure reaches without having to use a pump,or to obtain a 3D map showing the depth of the different hydraulic elements that make up the drinking water and wastewater systems,such as pipes,manhole covers and valves.Thus,any work can take into account their position to prevent duplications,and to focus interventions on the right areas.This is a very important step forward in usability.Other GIS trends include cloud devel-opments,autonomous vehicle-driving,Building Information Modeling(BIM)and the Internet of Things(IoT).In irrigation,advances will continue to be made in prevention,water volume adjustments and early crop pest detec-tion,always based on a collaborative approach and on cultural change in companies.On the other hand,advances in 5G-NR will transform the way data is visualized and interpreted,making it imme-diately available.This will facilitate the development of algorithms and functional and statistical calcula-tions.By working on instantaneous data,companies and users will be able to receive real-time alarms for events in hydraulic elements,such as meters.We will be able to link an image or a button on a map so that the element can be remotely managed by interacting with it.This low-latency interconnection will enable utilities to continue to drive water efficiency.Companies are already moving towards greater use of GIS,which will become easier to interpret as more informa-tion becomes available.The quest for greater customer usability will shape the roadmap for new GIS use cases in industry.We will be able to use water more intelligently and make more accurate predictions about the future,if we know precisely what is happening in the infrastructure.2022:committed to the geolocation of all processesGeolocated data multiplies its original value by three.Sergio Aznar GIS Department Director,IdricaWater Technology Trends 2022:GIS16 Water Technology Trends 2022:AITrend#5Artificial Intelligence:building learning into processesMore and more water utilities are adding Artificial Intelligence(AI)to their processes.This science,which aims to replicate human cognitive functions through machines,provides more sustainable management of water resources.Within AI,Machine Learning(ML)has huge potential in the industry.This discipline focuses on the development of techniques and algorithms that help a machine to learn,that is,to acquire increasingly accurate knowledge from an external data source.Other branches of AI,which are also being applied to water,are voice and vision recognition systems,expert systems,Natural Language Processing(NLP)and robots.One of the main advantages of ML is that it automates processes that are costly to manage manually.This is done by means of agnostic systems,i.e.,which are data-driven and not based on subjective analyses.This improves the accuracy of the results,which are calculated at high computational speed thanks to the infrastructure that underpins them.Thus,utilities can make better decisions because they have real-time information about what is happening in the infrastructures.Four types of machine learningThe water industry handles vast amounts of data,which makes it essential to extract its value.Utilities have access to different fields of machine learning to transform data into useful information.SupervisedIn this type of learning,prior knowledge of the problem is used as the valid hypothesis to be able to characterize new cases in the future.For example,if we have data on customers who have had leaks in the past,and information about their characteristics,we can build a model that cate-gorizes new customers to anticipate further water losses.UnsupervisedWhen there is no previous knowledge about the issue to be solved,but there is information about its characteris-tics,unsupervised learning is used.Continuing on from the previous example,if we have a database of customers,we can study which ones have abnormal consumption in order to identify possible leaks.Semi-supervisedIn this case,we have data that gives us prior knowledge of the problem and other data that does not.Both sets enrich the information needed to solve the problem.Similarly,if we have data from clients who have had leaks,others who have not,and some whose situation is unknown,the combi-nation of all these sources helps us to detect new cases more accurately.To do this,a number of assumptions are made about data distributions.By reinforcement Unlike the other fields of machine learning,this one differs in that it is rule-based and deals with action/reaction type information to be modeled,the objective of which is to maximize the reward function.Reinforcement learning is used,for example,to perform simulations in a development environment,generating software capable of preventing the collision of autonomous vehicles in real-life situations.17 Use cases applied to waterRegardless of the type of learning applied,AI provides innovative answers to some of the major challenges facing utilities.For example,the detection of fraud through machine-learning-based models.Although these systems can be applied in any business environment,they are particularly relevant in our industry because they manage a resource that is essential for life.The same applies to early leak detection,as this has a major impact on water savings.In general,AI improves the efficiency and quality of our water supply.Algorithms can estimate and anticipate consumption and predict water quality.They are also instrumental in improving irrigation systems and optimizing energy use in pumping systems.In wastewater,this science helps to detect overflows in sewage networks,and can even prevent them by imple-menting preventive cleaning in trouble spots.Another innovative use case is the detection of pathogens in sewage systems,which helps to monitor the evolution of epidemics or pandemics,as is currently the case.Other applications,such as automatic report genera-tion and social media sentiment analysis,are useful to ascertain not only the status of processes,but also citizen satisfaction with the water services provided.As part of this commitment to greater transparency and citizen orientation,chatbots have recently been included in various utilities customer service departments.These automatic response chatbots,based on NLP,help to solve consumers problems more quickly.Automatic reading of water meters through vision recognition systems is another of the advances we are already seeing in water services.2022:machines driving sustainability Sustainability is driving the evolution of AI products in the water industry.Continuous improvements in technology will lead to increasingly optimized energy supplies and consumption,more accurate leak detection processes,and lower maintenance costs.On the back of these advances,total CO2 emissions will also fall,leading to smarter manage-ment of the entire water cycle.We also expect to see an increase in the use of edge devices in 2022.While the on-premise server computing paradigm has already been replaced by cloud technologies,improvements in edge device processors will lead to direct computing on edge devices without the need for a server.Users will have AI models implemented in an application on their device,with real-time access to their behavioral data and various forecasts.In the water industry,these advances will yield different practical applications,such as autonomous driving of vehicles and robots.For this to take place,some related challenges need to be solved.First,scalability,as it is easier to pool data in a single storage center,such as a physical server or in the cloud,than in all the edge devices.In addition,an infra-structure is needed to manage failures and configuration errors.The second much more critical issue is security.With edge devices,the entire process is located in a place that is not readily accessible to the organization,so more investment is needed to make the system secure.Over the next few years,utilities will be adding different AI use cases to their operations.New lines of research that could emerge include systems for detecting long-term weather patterns.These systems could be designed to improve the efficiency of water resource management in the event of droughts or floods,in order to mitigate the effects of climate change.The water industry,as a provider of an essential service,could spearhead these developments.In short,more sustainable management of the entire water cycle requires the introduction of AI in the utilities of the future.Manuel GarcaData Scientist,IdricaWater Technology Trends 2022:AI18 Water Technology Trends 2022:5GTrend#65G:turning the future into reality 5G is not just another new generation of communication.It is a veritable revolution in how mobile networks are designed and used.A few years ago,4G networks overcame the connectivity and speed issues encountered in previous generations(2G,3G),and accelerated person-to-person communication.5G technology is not just another small step along this road;instead it opens up radically new business opportunities that were not previously possible.Until now,the same physical infrastructure has had to serve a wide variety of use cases,although these have very different requirements.However,the ultra-flexibility of 5G networks means that they can be sliced or configured in a variety of ways to cater to the needs of telecommunications infrastruc-ture users.We can compare this idea to highway infrastructures,which are characterized by their inflexibility.When we want to adapt them to external circumstances(an ambulance that needs to get through,closing or opening lanes depending on the volume of traffic,etc.),an external manager modifies them in an attempt to cater for these new uses,with varying degrees of success.Conversely,if we apply the 5G concept,we would have smart infrastruc-tures monitoring what is going on and taking swift action when needed.For example,they could open up a new lane,transfer lanes from one direction to another,light up the road or change to a more rugged road surface in the event of rain.Similarly,5G will be able to create virtual corporate networks within the network itself,or respond to use cases with different bandwidth requirements,response speed and number of connected devices,among other functionalities.This is how 5G can help us to build different use cases on its networks.The intelligence of the network makes it suitable for services that require high bandwidth and good coverage(enhanced Mobile Broadband-eMBB),low latency and very high reliability(Ultra Reliable Low Latency Communications-URLLC),as well as for securely connecting a large number of devices(Massive Internet of Things-MIoT).19 5G-NRs evolution across the worldThe worlds major powers,such as China,the United States and Korea,have been vying to lead the development of 5G since 2019,and are adopting different strategies to push forward with the implementation of the most disruptive use cases.So far,commercial deployments have been based on the Non-Standalone version,which is more limited in terms of its benefits.However,there is huge interest in moving forward,so during 2022 we expect to see the first Stand-alone deployments.In addition,some countries are already rolling out private networks in industrial environments and reserving part of the spectrum for their businesses,and we are even starting to see the first smart factory projects in Europe,with processes managed through 5G.After completing the pilot testing phase and current partial deployments,the forecast is that in a couple of years time,5G coverage will reach similar levels to those of current 4G networks.By that time,we will have moved to the commercial model,and it is reasonable to expect the water industry to take part in this change.Some hurdles must first be overcome for this to happen,such as the limited availability of coverage and radio spectrum for industry,the global shortage of chips and the high cost of IoT devices.Full 5G coverage is expected to be reached by 2025,thanks in part to the support of governments,who see this technology as an economic driver capable of creating new jobs.Innovative use cases in the water industryThe innovation brought by 5G comprises both the tech-nologys capabilities and the new use cases that it will enable.Although its full potential is still being explored in several pilot projects,there are a number of innovations that are worth taking into account.One of the most important is the connection of millions of devices per km2,thanks to MIoT(Massive Internet of Things).5G will ensure the coexistence of smart meters with the digital transformation of other devices,which is key in a world where there will soon be 26 billion devices connected.For sensors to be compatible with economic and environ-mental sustainability,their useful life must be extended.5G can reduce battery consumption by up to 50%compared to current levels.This technology also ensures that the digital transformation of infrastructures is secure,thanks to improved security protocols to protect against cyber-attacks and the ubiquity of the network,i.e.unin-terrupted coverage.In addition,5Gs network slicing is essential for the management of critical infrastructures.The main change is that the network will adapt to the needs of businesses,and not the other way around,thanks to the definition of virtually independent networks with guaranteed quality of service.These slices will enable remote control in real time.The autonomous operation of plants,the driving of robots and the piloting of drones to inspect and monitor critical infrastructures,are just some of the examples that will become commonplace.Ultra-low latency will enable machines to inspect dangerous or difficult-to-access areas,such as sewers,and improve predictive asset maintenance.In addition,the farming industry is exploring the use of autonomous tractors for sowing and harvesting.Another of the main practical applications also involves avoiding unnecessary travel and facilitating access to difficult spaces:remote assistance will speed up access to specialized knowledge to enhance incident resolution in the water industry.5G is set to liberate and democratize data.Water Technology Trends 2022:5G20 Chema NebotBusiness Development Director,Idrica2022:the water management revolutionGlobal water utilities are transforming their processes as a means to achieve greater water and energy efficiency.This journey includes leveraging the value of the data obtained from sensors,and doing so securely,in order to make better decisions.Thanks to its low latency and its ability to connect millions of devices,5G will become a key ally for these utilities.Moreover,against a background of increased transparency,this technology will help to liberate and democra-tize data,making it more accessible.The 21st century citizen not only wants to know how much water they have consumed,but also how much is left in the reservoirs,or the quality of the water they are using,in real time.5G can provide the answer to these questions.These citizen demands,and others related to environmental sustainability,are also shared by government and are on the roadmap of water utilities.Consequently,5G,as an enabler of innovative use cases,will receive firm support for its deployment and adoption.In the coming year,the water industry has a unique opportunity to further transform the management of its most precious resource through the advantages brought by 5G.The range of available technologies will benefit all water utilities,regardless of their degree of digital transformation.Water Technology Trends 2022:5G21 Water Technology Trends 2022:ConclusionsConclusionsToday,2.2 billion people lack access to safely managed drinking water services(WHO/UNICEF 2019),and almost twice as many lack adequate sanitation(Id.2020).Against this background,the industrys continued commitment to ensuring the right to water and sanitation for all,as recognized by the United Nations General Assembly in July 2010,is essential.The technologies featured in this whitepaper are some of the must-have tools for ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water,in line with Sustainable Development Goal(SDG)6.The digital transformation of processes is no longer an option;it is simply the road we must follow to offer the quality service demanded by 21st century citizens.Climate change and water scarcity,which already affects 40%of the population,are challenges that need to be addressed as soon as possible.In 2022,and over the next few years,utilities will continue to optimize their management thanks to digital twins,the deployment of AMI(Advanced Metering Infrastructure),Geographic Information Systems,intelligent asset management,Artificial Intelligence and the new generation of 5G-NR communications,among other developments.These trends pave the way for use cases that drive process automation,remote and real-time control,the anticipation of events and improved field work.They also contribute to customer-centric management by delivering value-added services.In short,they are geared towards achieving more sustainable,more secure management,based on better decision-making.The future depends on digital transformation.However,this should not be conceived as an end in itself,but as a way of extracting value from data and converting infor-mation into business intelligence.This is the only way we will be able to tackle the challenges of the coming decades.Idrica is a leading company specializing in water cycle management.Its unique value proposition is based on the efficiency and quality of its services and on the GoAigua technological solution used for the digital transformation of the industry.Contact us for an analysis of the challenges facing your organization and learn how the GoAigua technology is helping its customers in the water industry.About I 34 963 86 05 00
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SDR Ventures：2022年下半年食品饮料并购趋势报告（英文版）（15页）.pdf
Investment Banking&Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA&SIPC.DateDateTargetTargetBuyer(s)Buyer(s)SegmentSegmentAmountAmount($in Mil)($in Mil)TEV/TEV/RevRevTEV/TEV/EBITDAEBITDA1 2/1 9/2022Mondelez InternationalPerfetti Van MelleCPG Foods1 350.00-1 2/1 4/2022Waterloo BrewingCarlsbergAlcohol1 06.891.3x8.3x1 1/1/2022Denali IngredientsOrkla Food IngredientsIngredients&Flavors1 68.001.7x1 1.7x1 0/28/2022Recipe UnlimitedFairfax Financial Holdings Restaurants834.98-1 0/28/2022Qdoba RestaurantButterfly Equity,King Street Capital Management,Modern MarketRestaurants-1 0/1 9/2022Seattles Best CoffeeNestl Non-Alcohol71 50.00-1 0/3/2022Winland FoodsInvestindustrialCPG Foods950.00-8/31/2022Stone BrewingSapporo Holdings Alcohol1 65.00-8/9/2022BBQ HoldingsMTY Food Group Restaurants200.00-8/1/2022Clif Bar&CompanyMondelez International Natural&Organic2900.00-If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.30 23 34 8 13 15 21 18 16 35 15-5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Strategic70%Financial30%-70%-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0c-21Jan-22Feb-22Mar-22Apr-22May-22Jun-22Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22AlcoholNon-AlcoholCPG FoodsNatural&Organic FoodsDairyProteinsProduceIngredients&FlavorsCo-PackersRestaurantsDigitally NativeS&P 500 Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDADiageoDGE99,849$44.00$3.8%(1 9.2%)79.2%6.64.0%5.8x1 7.1 x23.7x5.4x1 5.8xConstellation BrandsSTZ42,742 231.75 0.9%(7.7%)88.6%4.3%1 3.9%5.7x41.1 xNM5.5x1 5.1 xBrown-FormanBF.B31,484 65.68(1.3%)(9.9%)84.0%0.51.8%7.9x24.9x35.7x7.9x23.1 xMolson Coors Beverage CompanyTAP1 1,220 51.52 7.4%1 1.2.7%2.7%1 4.6%1.6x1 1.2x22.7x1.6x8.3xBoston Beer CoSAM4,051 329.52 1.8%(34.8%)61.6%6.0%5.7%2.0 xNMNM1.8x1 4.6xMGP IngredientsMGPI2,340 1 06.38 0.2%.2.6%7.4$.2%3.3x1 3.8x1 9.9x3.1 x1 4.3xWillamette Valley VineyardsWVVI30 5.97(3.3%)(31.1%)55.0%NM7.9%2.6x32.4xNMNMNMAbcourt MinesABI1 5 0.04 33.6%(37.5%)51.1%NM(26.2%)1.2xNMNMNMNMCanstar ResourcesROX7 0.06 7.2%(71.4%)26.5%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMSegment Average5.6%(19.5%)68.5%4.6.2%3.8x23.4x25.5x4.2x15.2xSegment M edian1.8%(19.2%)79.2%5.1.2%3.0 x21.0 x23.2x4.3x14.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDACoca-ColaKO275,082$63.61$1 3.5%7.4.7%4.02.6%7.2x22.0 x27.9x6.9x21.3xPepsicoPEP248,897 1 80.66 1 0.7%4.0.7%5.0 .1%3.4x1 6.4x25.8x3.2x1 7.4xMonster BeverageMNST53,01 1 1 01.53 1 6.8%5.7.0%1 4.6&.5%8.1 x30.5x44.9x7.1 x23.1 xCoca Cola ConsolidatedCOKE4,803 51 2.36 24.4%(1 7.3%)78.1%1.0%1 0.7%0.9x8.4x1 4.6x0.9xNMNational 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0.2%(6.7%)82.7%2.4%1 2.6%2.2x1 7.3x25.0 x2.1 x1 6.5xKelloggsK24,31 3 71.24 2.3%1 0.6.3%4.0%1 7.3%2.1 x1 2.3x1 6.4x2.0 x1 3.1 xMcCormick&CompanyMKC22,21 9 82.89 1 6.3%(1 4.2%)77.2%4.0%1 8.0%4.3x23.8x32.4x4.1 x21.2xCampbell SoupCPB1 6,995 56.75 20.40.6.2%4.8%1 7.6%2.4x1 3.9x21.6x2.3x1 2.6xFlowers FoodsFLO6,068 28.74 1 6.4%4.6.3%6.2%9.2%1.5x1 6.3x27.9x1.4x1 3.5xLancaster ColonyLANC5,436 1 97.30 31.3%1 9.1.2%9.2%9.7%3.2x32.3x56.5x2.9x1 7.6xPost HoldingsPOST5,302 90.26 1 0.2.4.2%5.2.2%1.9x6.9x7.7x1.8xNMJ&J Snack FoodsJJSF2,878 1 49.71 1 5.6%(5.2%)90.2%1 4.1%8.4%2.1 x25.5x60.9x1.9xNMB&G FoodsBGS799 1 1.1 5(32.4%)(63.7%)32.5%3.2%7.6%1.5x20.2xNM1.5x9.9xFarmer BrothersFARM90 4.61(1.7%)(38.1%)58.5%9.4%2.8%0.5x1 6.7xNM0.4x1 5.7xRocky Mountain Chocolate FactoryRMCF36 5.70(5.2%)(27.4%)63.8%NM(8.0%)1.0 xNMNMNMNMSegment Average8.0%(3.3%)82.2%6.2.4%2.3x18.4x29.5x2.2x15.3xSegment M edian10.2%0.5.2%5.0.6%2.1x17.0 x26.5x2.1x15.4xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDASprouts Farmers MarketSFM3,426$32.37$1 6.6%9.1.6%6.6%9.3%0.7x7.8x1 4.1 x0.7x9.4xUnited Natural FoodsUNFI2,31 6 38.71 1 2.6%(21.1%)75.7%3.4%2.5%0.2x8.2x1 0.0 x0.2x7.0 xThe Hain Celestial GroupHAIN1,445 1 6.1 8(4.1%)(62.0%)37.2%0.7%8.3%1.3x1 5.5x22.8x1.3x1 1.5xSunOptaSOY906 8.40(8.8%)22.1q.9%1 0.4%3.3%1.4x43.2xNM1.3x1 3.2xCalavo GrowersCVGW521 29.40(7.4%)(30.7%)64.6%0.3%1.3%0.5x39.1 xNM0.5x9.8xLimoneiraLMNR21 6 1 2.21(7.4%)(1 8.6%)75.0%(0.2%)6.7%1.9xNMNM1.9xNMNatural GrocersNGVC208 9.1 4(1 5.3%)(35.9%)37.7%2.1%5.3%0.5x1 0.1 x9.7x0.5xNMDestination ItaliaDIT1 4 1.1 5 46.0%(23.8%)67.2%NMNM0.8xNMNM0.3xNMReedsREED9 0.07(42.1%)(80.5%)1 6.2 .7%(30.3%)0.6xNMNM0.5xNMRiceBran TechnologiesRIBT5 0.74(58.6%)(78.7%)8.3%(3.4%)(22.4%)0.3xNMNM0.3xNMSegment Average(6.8%)(32.0%)54.5%4.5%(1.8%)0.8x20.7x14.1x0.7x10.2xSegment M edian(7.4%)(27.2%)65.9%2.1%3.3%0.7x12.8x12.0 x0.5x9.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDADanoneBN33,563$52.47$9.9%(1 5.1%)78.6%3.7%1 5.6%1.6x1 0.0 x1 9.0 x1.5x9.3xLifeway FoodsLWAY77 5.55(3.0%)20.7a.7%1 1.2%2.8%0.6x22.3xNM0.6xNMSegment Average3.5%2.8p.1%7.4%9.2%1.1x16.1x19.0 x1.0 x9.3xSegment M edian3.5%2.8p.1%7.4%9.2%1.1x16.1x19.0 x1.0 x9.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAHormel FoodsHRL24,890$45.55$0.2%(6.7%)82.7%2.4%1 2.6%2.2x1 7.3x25.0 x2.1 x1 6.5xTyson FoodsTSN22,275 62.25(5.6%)(28.6%)61.8%4.8%1 0.7%0.6x5.2x7.0 x0.5x6.4xPilgrims PridePPC5,61 1 23.73 3.1%(1 5.9%)68.5%(2.2%)1 0.0%0.5x4.9x6.1 x0.5x8.0 xPost HoldingsPOST5,302 90.26 1 0.2.4.2%5.2.2%1.9x6.9x7.7x1.8xNMNomad FoodsNOMD3,001 1 7.24 21.4%(32.1%)64.1%3.7%1 4.2%1.6x1 1.5x1 1.5x1.6x8.4xBridgford FoodsBRID1 08 1 1.92(1 5.8%)(1.6%)76.9%NM24.0%0.4x1.5xNMNMNMPingtan Marine EnterprisesPME34 0.40(52.7%)(30.4%)35.7%NMNM2.4x1 2.3x20.0 xNMNMSegment Average(5.6%)(13.3%)69.1%2.8.5%1.4x8.5x12.9x1.3x9.9xSegment M edian0.2%(15.9%)68.5%3.7.4%1.6x6.9x9.6x1.6x8.2xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDASyscoSYY38,742$76.45$8.1%(2.7%)83.5%9.1%4.7%0.7x1 4.9x27.1 x0.6x1 1.4xUS FoodsUSFD7,651 34.02 28.7%(2.3%)85.6%8.5%2.8%0.4x1 4.1 xNM0.4x8.8xNomad FoodsNOMD3,001 1 7.24 21.4%(32.1%)64.1%3.7%1 4.2%1.6x1 1.5x1 1.5x1.6x8.4xUnited Natural FoodsUNFI2,31 6 38.71 1 2.6%(21.1%)75.7%3.4%2.5%0.2x8.2x1 0.0 x0.2x7.0 xFresh Del Monte ProduceFDP1,253 26.1 9 1 2.7%(5.1%)83.3%1.9%4.3%0.4x1 0.2x1 8.2x0.4xNMSpartanNashSPTN1,066 30.24 4.2%1 7.4.1%4.8%2.0%0.2x9.9x1 9.6x0.2x7.4xSunOptaSOY906 8.40(8.8%)22.1q.9%1 0.4%3.3%1.4x43.2xNM1.3x1 3.2xCalavo GrowersCVGW521 29.40(7.4%)(30.7%)64.6%0.3%1.3%0.5x39.1 xNM0.5x9.8xSeneca FoodsSENEA464 60.95 20.8.1.7%NM7.1%0.6x7.8x1 0.9xNMNMLimoneiraLMNR21 6 1 2.21(7.4%)(1 8.6%)75.0%(0.2%)6.7%1.9xNMNM1.9xNMAlicoALCO1 81 23.87(1 5.5%)(35.5%)54.7%(33.8%)34.2%3.2x9.4x1 4.5x4.9x1 7.0 xSegment Average6.3%(7.4%)75.2%0.8%7.6%1.0 x16.8x16.0 x1.2x10.4xSegment M edian8.1%(5.1%)75.7%3.5%4.3%0.6x10.9x14.5x0.6x9.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMcCormick&CompanyMKC22,21 9$82.89$1 6.3%(1 4.2%)77.2%4.0%1 8.0%4.3x23.8x32.4x4.1 x21.2xIngredionINGR6,420 97.93 21.6%1.3.1%1 3.5%1 2.0%1.1 x9.3x1 4.8x1.0 x8.0 xSensient TechnologiesSXT3,065 72.92 5.2%(27.1%)71.7%3.7%1 7.4%2.5x1 4.4x22.1 x2.4x1 3.8xSunOptaSOY906 8.40(8.8%)22.1q.9%1 0.4%3.3%1.4x43.2xNM1.3x1 3.2xSegment Average8.6%(4.5%)79.2%7.9.7%2.3x22.7x23.1x2.2x14.0 xSegment M edian10.7%(6.4%)74.5%7.2.7%2.0 x19.1x22.1x1.9x13.5xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDARestaurant Brands InternationalQSR1 9,762$64.60$20.2%7.4.0%6.93.5%5.5x1 6.4x21.0 x5.1 x1 3.9xTexas RoadhouseTXRH6,086 90.95 4.2%1.9.4%1 3.7%1 1.6%1.7x1 4.8x23.7x1.5x1 2.5xCracker Barrel Old Country StoreCBRL2,1 03 94.74 2.3%(26.4%)67.7%5.5%7.5%1.0 x1 3.1 x1 8.9x0.9x1 1.8xBloomin BrandsBLMN1,766 20.1 2 9.8%(4.1%)78.9%7.3%8.4%0.8x1 0.0 x1 9.7x0.8x6.8xDave&BustersPLAY1,71 1 35.44 1 4.2%(7.7%)67.5).8!.7%2.6x1 1.8x1 4.1 x2.0 x8.2xThe Cheesecake FactoryCAKE1,631 31.71 8.3%(1 9.0%)71.0%1 0.4%4.5%1.0 x23.0 xNM0.9x1 2.4xBrinker InternationalEAT1,405 31.91 27.7%(1 2.8%)72.5%5.6%7.3%0.9x1 3.0 x1 9.7x0.9x9.4xDineBrandsDIN1,01 3 64.60 1.6%(1 4.8%)76.8%(1 2.1%)24.1%2.6x1 0.9x1 2.1 x3.0 x9.7xBJs RestaurantsBJRI61 7 26.38 1 0.6%(23.6%)70.9%8.7%4.4%0.9x20.6xNM0.8x1 0.8xDennysDENN527 9.21(2.1%)(42.4%)54.3%5.37.9%2.1 x5.6x5.5x2.0 x1 0.1 xChuys HoldingsCHUY509 28.30 22.1%(6.0%)81.7%9.8%1 3.7%1.5x1 0.9x22.3x1.4x1 1.5xFiesta Restaurant GroupFRGI1 91 7.35 1 5.9%(33.2%)62.9%9.6%0.9%0.8x87.7xNM0.8x6.6xRed Robin Gourmet BurgersRRGB89 5.58(1 7.1%)(66.2%)29.9%4.1%3.5%0.5x1 5.5xNM0.5x9.8xCarrols Restaurant GroupTAST72 1.36(1 6.6%)(54.1%)41.8%5.8%1.2%0.8x68.6xNM0.8x1 6.4xSegment Average7.2%(21.5%)68.5%7.9.9%1.6x23.0 x17.4x1.5x10.7xSegment M edian9.0%(16.9%)71.0%7.1%7.9%1.0 x14.0 x19.7x0.9x10.5xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDADarden RestaurantsDRI1 6,930$1 38.33$9.5%(8.2%)89.1%9.4%1 5.4%2.1 x1 4.3x1 9.1 x2.0 x1 2.8xRuths Hospitality GroupRUTH51 4 1 5.48(8.2%)(22.2%)62.1%1 1.1%1 3.3%1.5x1 1.6x1 3.0 x1.4x8.8xThe One GroupSTKS203 6.30(5.1%)(50.0%)45.5.0%8.9%1.0 x1 1.7x1 4.7x0.9x6.2xSegment Average(1.3%)(26.8%)65.6.2.5%1.6x12.5x15.6x1.4x9.3xSegment M edian(5.1%)(22.2%)62.1.1.3%1.5x11.7x14.7x1.4x8.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAStarbucksSBUX1 1 3,862$99.20$1 7.7%(1 5.2%)84.2%1 4.9%1 9.1%4.2x21.9x35.1 x3.6x1 8.1 xChipotle Mexican GrillCMG38,463 1,387.49(7.7%)(20.6%)78.8%1 7.1%1 5.5%4.9x31.8x48.3x4.2x21.8xShake ShackSHAK1,631 41.53(7.7%)(42.4%)52.2$.8%5.2%2.4xNMNM1.9x20.8xEl Pollo LocoLOCO369 9.96 1 1.7%(29.8%)67.3%5.0%9.4%1.2x1 2.8x1 7.8x1.1 x9.9xPotbelly Sandwich WorksPBPB1 60 5.57 23.0%(0.2%)78.0%1 2.0%3.1%0.8x25.9xNM0.7x1 3.7xSegment Average7.4%(21.7%)72.1.8.5%2.7x23.1x33.7x2.3x16.9xSegment M edian11.7%(20.6%)78.0.9%9.4%2.4x23.9x35.1x1.9x18.1xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAPilgrims PridePPC5,61 1$23.73$3.1%(1 5.9%)68.5%(2.2%)1 0.0%0.5x4.9x6.1 x0.5x8.0 xHerbalife International of AmericaHLF1,457 1 4.88(25.2%)(63.6%)32.5%(9.1%)1 2.3%0.7x6.0 x4.8x0.8x6.9xJohn B.Sanfilippo&SonJBSS937 81.32 7.4%(9.8%)88.3%(4.2%)9.9%1.0 x1 0.2x1 6.3x1.1 xNMBridgford FoodsBRID1 08 1 1.92(1 5.8%)(1.6%)76.9%NM24.0%0.4x1.5xNMNMNMCoffee HoldingJVA1 2 2.04(1 8.4%)(53.5%)43.4%NM0.4%0.3xNMNMNMNMRiceBran TechnologiesRIBT5 0.74(58.6%)(78.7%)8.3%(3.4%)(22.4%)0.3xNMNM0.3xNMSegment Average(17.9%)(37.2%)53.0%(4.7%)5.7%0.5x5.6x9.1x0.7x7.5xSegment M edian(17.1%)(34.7%)55.9%(3.8%)10.0%0.4x5.4x6.1x0.7x7.5xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMcDonaldsMCD1 93,01 6$263.53$1 4.2%(1.7%)93.6%1.8E.7%1 0.2x22.3x33.2x1 0.0 x1 8.3xYum!BrandsYUM36,079 1 28.08 20.4%(7.8%)91.7%6.44.4%7.0 x20.4x29.2x6.6x1 8.8xDominos PizzaDPZ1 2,262 346.40 1 1.7%(38.6%)61.0%6.3%1 9.0%3.9x20.5x28.0 x3.7x1 8.8xThe Wendys CompanyWEN4,821 22.63 21.1%(5.1%)92.4%3.1$.0%4.1 x1 7.2x26.3x4.0 x1 6.8xWingstop RestaurantsWING4,1 1 7 1 37.62 9.7%(20.4%)78.0(.3&.6%1 4.3x53.9xNM1 1.2xNMPapa Johns InternationalPZZA2,908 82.31 1 7.6%(38.3%)60.5%3.8%7.7%1.7x22.3x42.6x1.7x1 5.8xFour Corners Property TrustFCPT2,1 75 25.93 7.2%(1 1.8%)86.1%1 0.3y.1%1 4.2x1 8.0 x21.3x1 2.9x1 7.0 xJack In The BoxJACK1,41 8 68.23(7.9%)(22.0%)70.4%1 4.2 .8%3.0 x1 4.7x1 2.5x2.7x1 3.9xSegment Average11.8%(18.2%)79.2%9.32.2%7.3x23.7x27.6x6.6x17.1xSegment M edian12.9%(16.1%)82.0%6.3%.3%5.6x20.5x28.0 x5.3x17.0 xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)Quarter ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDADelivery HeroDHER1 2,246$47.73$28.0%(57.1%)41.8I.6%(1 1.0%)1.8xNMNM1.2xNMYelpYELP1,906 27.34(1 9.4%)(24.6%)69.6%1 1.7%8.5%1.4x1 6.3x53.6x1.2x5.3xBlue ApronAPRN33 0.83(85.6%)(87.7%)9.0%3.4%(1 8.7%)0.1 xNMNM0.1 xNMSegment Average(25.7%)(56.5%)40.1!.6%(7.0%)1.1x16.3x53.6x0.9x5.3xSegment M edian(19.4%)(57.1%)41.8.7%(11.0%)1.4x16.3x53.6x1.2x5.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB%9%9FRGIA567%8%8%9%5QWUX9G96%8%6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSub DebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:The most current source of GF Data is as of November 2022.MultiplesSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics2019202120202022*$0.0M$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B$500.0B$600.0B1,3002,3003,3004,3005,3006,3002021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q4Deals ClosedDeals ClosedCapital Invested6.1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x7.0 x7.1x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x9.3x8.6x9.0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10.0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm1.“Foodtech Startups And Venture Capital Q2 2022,”D,July 2022,https:/dealroom.co/uploaded/2022/07/Foodtech-Q2-2022-report-1.pdf?x395452.“Fed Raises Interest Rates Half A Point To Highest Level In 15 Years,”CNBC,Jeff Cox,Dec.14,2022 https:/Food Prices In 2022 Hit A Record High Amid Drought And War,”NPR,Associated Press,Jan.7,2023 https:/www.npr.org/2023/01/07/1147660525/global-food-prices-2022-record-high4.“Can You Find Eggs Here Or There?Can You Find Them Anywhere?”New York Times,Jesus Jimnez,Jan.12,2023 https:/Tech Emerges as Major Theme at CES,”Food Manufacturing,Cara Rubinsky,Jan 10,2023 https:/Belts:Mcdonalds Opens First Largely Automated Location,”The Guardian,Erum Salam,Dec.23,2022 https:/Trends Shaping Food And Beverage In 2023,”Food Dive,Christopher Doering,Casey,and Poinski,Jan.10,2023 https:/1,000 Companies Have Curtailed Operations in RussiaBut Some Remain,”Yale School of Management,Jan.19,2023 https:/som.yale.edu/story/2022/over-1000-companies-have-curtailed-operations-russia-some-remain9.“First McDonalds Opens In Soviet Uniont,”History Channel,undated,accessed Jan.21,2023 https:/Is a Smart Refrigerator?”Lifewire,Rene Lynn Midrack,Jul.24,2021 https:/Where Minimum Wages Go Furthest 2023 Edition,”SmartAsset,Patrick Villanova,Jan.18,2023 https:/Robots Will Solve Many of Our Food Worries,”Bloomberg,Amanda Little,Jun.2,2022 https:/Markets 2.6 Million Missing People Unnerves Star Harvard Economist,”Bloomberg,Ben Steverman,Jan.118,2022 https:/And Food Processing Today:Its About Labor,”Food Engineering,Wayne Labs,May 16,2022 https:/Robotics Market will value USD 4.37 billion by 2030:GreyViews,”GlobeNewswire,Jan.18,2023 https:/48.3GR,Global Precision Fermentation Market Size Will Reach USD 37.35 Billion by 2030:Polaris Market Research,”Cision PR Newswire,Jan.3,2023 https:/Loss and Waste,”U.S.Food and Drug Administration,Nov.21,2022 https:/www.fda.gov/food/consumers/food-loss-and-waste#:text=In the United States, food,percent of the food supply.18.“Chemistrys fight against food waste,”Chemical&Engineering News,Matt Blois,Oct.2,2022 https:/cen.acs.org/food/Chemistrys-fight-against-food-waste/100/i3519.“Carlsberg to Acquire Waterloo Brewing in an all-cash C$144 Million Transaction,”December 15,2022.https:/www.newswire.ca/news-releases/carlsberg-to-acquire-waterloo-brewing-in-an-all-cash-c-144-million-transaction-832193282.html20.“Why Sapporos swoop for Stone Brewing makes sense,”July 27,2022.https:/www.just-to Acquire Seattles Best Coffee from Starbucks,”October 19,2022.22.https:/completes deal for Club Coffee,”July 25,2022.https:/
8 人看过 2023-02-17 15页 5星
Kibo：转向电子商务平台：2023 年 B2B 和 B2C 企业分步指南（英文版）（18 页）.pdf
ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMINGStep-by-Step Guide for B2B&B2C Companies With contributions by:Intro ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES2 As B2B and B2C consumers expand their purchasing journeys across online and ofgline channels,companies are forced to re-evaluate their eCommerce platform.Can it keep up with(and simplify)the complexities needed to meet heightening demands?For example,can your current cart and checkout support subscription purchases in the same transaction as a non-subscription purchase?Or can you manage segment-specific or account-level pricing and promotion rules without IT involvement?76%of retailers plan to increase their spending on eCommerce technology and services in 2023,according to a survey of retailers by Digital Commerce 360.Adding new capabilities is especially top-of-mind for many B2B sellers,with 61%of B2B retailers in a January 2022 Digital Commerce 360 survey indicating that eCommerce platforms and applications were among their top priorities for the year.Regardless of your focus or retail niche,theres a lot to consider when migrating to a new eCommerce platformfrom determining the right time to make the move to creating a game plan for vetting vendors.Our aim with this guide is to help you navigate the process.You can use this eCommerce replatforming guide to help you plan and execute a successful migration.To this end,the following topics are covered:When is the right time to replatform?What to consider before vetting new platformsHow to determine the right type of platformCalculating the total cost of ownership8 steps to replatformingChecklist for replatformingWell start by covering the signs and symptoms that signal its time to look for a new eCommerce platform.YOUR CURRENT SYSTEM IS NO LONGER UP TO THE JOB.eCommerce growing pains are real.With success,comes the need for scalability.If your platform can no longer handle increased trafgic or orders,it might be time to start looking for a new solution that can support your businesss continued growth.“A newer modernized platform brings cloud native-based architecture and advanced capabilities such as auto-scaling or self-healing for better consumer experience,”said Saravanan Kannan,North America Commerce Leader at Cognizant.YOU WANT TO ENTER NEW MARKETS.Global and regional markets often have difgerent eCommerce needs and requirements.Expanding into these markets requires an eCommerce platform that is configurable and flexible enough to accommodate difgerent needs like language,currency,and shipping.“Multi-tenant and globalized reusable template of the storefront assets for regional rollouts with minimal configurations is one of the major criteria for platform modernization,”said Kannan.YOU NEED TO INTEGRATE NEW COMMERCE TOOLS OR ERP SYSTEMS.As you add new commerce applications and tools,or connect to new ERP systems,the out-of-the-box capabilities of your current eCommerce platform might not be enough.If you find yourself having to do a lot of custom coding to make everything work together,its probably time for an upgrade.“The next-generation platforms provide a holistic end-to-end marketplace ecosystem for connectors,adaptors,and other plug&play integration services with seamless data exchange,”said Kannan.When is the right time to replatform?While every retail business is difgerent and each industry has its own unique goals and challenges,there are several key indicators that signal its time to embark on an eCommerce replatforming project.These include:231ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES3 YOUR ORDER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM NEEDS AN OVERHAUL.Order management and fulfillment can be challenging for businesses with complex product ofgerings,several distribution centers,and multiple sales channels.If youre relying on manual processes or band-aid solutions to get by,moving to an eCommerce platform that can support robust order management capabilities is a logical next step.“The current challenges on inventory visibility across all sales channels and the complexity in the delivery fulfillment capabilities post-order capture disrupt the customer experience.The next-generation order management platform solves most of these underlying order orchestration problem statements.Unified commerce experience is a very key difgerentiator for order capture and post-buying consumer experience,”said Kannan.YOU WANT TO INITIATE(OR IMPROVE)AN OMNICHANNEL COMMERCE EXPERIENCE.Omnichannel shopping is the rule in the U.S.,not the exception.According to Harvard Business Review,73%of consumers prefer shopping across multiple channels.Delivering consistent and personalized experiences builds trust,fosters connections with customers,and inspires loyalty.If your current eCommerce platform cant deliver on this omnichannel promise,its likely time for an upgrade.“The transformation strategy should be unified for consistent experience and business expansion,”said Kannan.YOU DONT KNOW WHAT YOU DONT KNOW.It can be difgicult(if not impossible)to anticipate what functionality youll need in six months,much less a year or more.But with the right system,you dont have to guess.An eCommerce replatforming initiative that employs a modular,scalable system helps you adapt to changes in omnichannel shopping behaviors,expectations,and technology.If your current platform lacks the flexibility to grow with your business,or if youre not confident in its ability to scale quickly,it might be time to consider a new solution.564“The current challenges on inventory visibility across all sales channels and the complexity in the delivery fulfillment capabilities post-order capture disrupt the customer experience.”SARAVANAN KANNAN North America Commerce Leader at CognizantAn eCommerce replatforming initiative that employs a modular,scalable system helps you adapt to changes in omnichannel shopping behaviors,expectations,and technology.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES4 YOU WANT INCREASED AUTONOMY FOR ECOMMERCE OPERATIONS.If youre using too many resources to maintain your eCommerce operations,it may be time to re-align the technical and business teams.By investing in technology that prioritizes business functions and simplifies tech stack management,you can gain significant operational efgiciencies.“Business teams want more independence and flexibility in publishing marketing content,merchandising decisions,and real-time promotional ofgers without significant IT dependencies.IT teams want more automation in product development,quality,and production rollout with minimal human touch.A platform that caters to provide such capabilities brings in more operational and cost efgiciencies to the organization,”said Kannan.Here are a few examples:1.Infra-as-a-code for cloud environment management2.Automated test scripts for Regression,SIT,E2E and Performance Test3.Fully automated DevOps CICD pipeline4.Site Reliability Engineering supported by Chaos Test EngineeringThe above list covers many of the most common reasons businesses replatform their eCommerce systems.But before getting into specifics,you should ask yourself if there are things that your current platform cant do.Does this lack of functionality put you at a competitive disadvantage?Is the current system able to handle your order volume,meet your business needs,and expand with you?These questions will help clarify if its time for a change.773%of consumers prefer shopping across multiple channelsECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES5 Do you need to replatform the entire eCommerce platform or only certain modules?Replatforming can often be a daunting word to B2B and B2C companies.But composable commerce solutions give you the ability to add or upgrade your eCommerce capabilities without the heavy lift of a traditional replatform.Composable commerce takes a modular approach to commerce by using packaged business capabilities(PBCs)to group microservices together.PBCs,a pillar of composable commerce,form independent components of the larger commerce system.In a composable system,individual capabilities,such as search or cart&checkout,can be added without afgecting the rest of the system.This gives you the agility to respond to customer needs in real-time and create exceptional digital experiences that drive conversions and loyalty.By building your platform from the capabilities that you need,you save on the total cost of ownership(TCO).Are you prioritizing business functions and tech stack management simplicity?As technology leaders started taking the responsibility of evaluating,purchasing and managing technology purchased by the company,the pendulum swing from monoliths to microservices.But many retailers found that these MACH(Microservices based,API-first,Cloud-native SaaS,and Headless)systems were too technical to implement and manage.They often required IT teams to build custom UIs and integrations when they should have been focusing on building capabilities and features that make the retailer unique.By re-aligning your business and technology teams,you can ensure youre investing in technology that prioritizes the business user and simplifies tech stack management.Look for solutions with the depth of out-of-the-box commerce capabilities(i.e.,integrations,APIs,workflows,data unification,and user interfaces)needed to meet your business complexities freeing the IT team to build functions and features that drive revenue.What to consider before vetting new platformsReplacing an eCommerce platform will impact every aspect of your retail business.To plan for the project and ensure you consider its impact to the organization,you should develop a roadmap by answering the following questions.Composable commerce solutions give you the ability to add or upgrade your eCommerce capabilities without the heavy lift of a traditional replatform.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES6 What business use cases do you need the new platform to fulfill?Creating use cases helps visualize and clarify your business needs.What do you need the new platform to do for your business?Do you need it to improve customer experience,create efgiciencies in your operations,or enable growth?Use cases are an important tool when screening vendors since they provide tangibility around how a given platform can or cant meet your requirements.Who needs to be involved in the decision-making process?Your replatforming project will likely require some organizational changes.For example,you might need to create a new position to manage the platform or restructure your marketing team to take advantage of the new features.Team buy-in and communication are critical when migrating to a new system.Create a clear outline or list of the stakeholders tasked with informing,educating,and involving their teams in the decision-making process.Is your budget realistic?We get into the specifics of calculating the total cost of ownership(TCO),below.But well before you factor in how to calculate this crucial metric,its important to take a realistic look at your budget for replatforming since this informs what you can do now versus later.Some costs inherent in eCommerce replatforming include:Monthly or annual platform subscription fee One-time migration fee Stafging and training costs(hiring new stafg,re-training existing stafg,etc.)Ongoing maintenance and support costs Hosting and managed services fees Operational cost of two eCommerce platforms until the legacy application is sunsetECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES7 Who will be responsible for managing the new platform?Successful replatforming programs involve all departments,including executive leadership.Failing to get executive buy-in before replatforming is a huge pitfall and can derail the project.Its helpful to have one person spearhead the initiativea replatforming“champion”who informs executive leadership while working with a transition team that represents difgerent departments within your organization.What requirements and capabilities do you need now and in the future?Evaluating your current eCommerce platform will give you a good idea of the capabilities you need in a new platform.Its also important to plan for your short-and long-term needs(e.g.,6 months,1 year,2 years,etc.).Again,theres no way to anticipate exactly how the market,your customers,and your business will change over time,but finding a platform that can scale and adapt is the best way to weather changes.Whats the timeline for the project?Be realistic about the timeline for your replatforming project.Depending on your approach,migrating to a new platform can take months to complete.Make sure you have a clear understanding of the timeline and how it will impact your customers,stakeholders,and employees.Whats the production cutover strategy for the project?“Plan and budget for production cutover strategy well in advance by aligning stakeholders and preparing for key activities leading up to launch day,such as environment readiness,data migration,organizational change management,training,and platform transition,”said Kannan.“The are difgerent types of cutover approaches,such as big bang or a phased rollout by feature and capabilities which could lead to incurring operational costs and maintenance of two difgerent platforms until the legacy is sunset.Its important to consider each approach and how they will afgect business operations and the end consumer experience.”Answering the above questions helps prepare you for the next stepchoosing the type of platform you need and the right vendor for your project.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES8 How to determine the right type of platform There are several difgerent platform approaches and types you should know about as you compare vendors.Heres a quick overview of the most common eCommerce platforms:SaaS vs.On-PremisesSoftware as a Service(SaaS)is a subscription-based licensing model where software is developed and hosted by an external vendor.Think of it as a rental approach.Your subscription price pays for access to the software and everything needed to operate it including updates,upgrades,security,and maintenance.An on-premises platform is managed internally by your company.Its a one-time purchase with an external hosting fee and an annual maintenance contract with the vendor.With an on-premises system,you own the software(think of it as a house you own outright),but youre responsible for its upkeep including hosting,security,and upgrades.Monolith vs.Headless vs.Composable A monolithic eCommerce platform is one thats tightly coupled the backend system(order management,inventory,etc.)is integrated with the frontend system(checkout process,product pages,customer accounts).Once the standard when it came to eCommerce systems,many companies are moving away from monolithic systems because of their lack of flexibility.A headless eCommerce platform separates the backend functionality of your commerce system from the frontend presentation layer.Headless systems are cloud-based and use API calls to deliver services and content to send instructions between the two ends.Headless commerce allows developers to focus on building out backend functionality without worrying about how it will impact other parts of the platform.Headless commerce is more flexible than monolithic platforms,but keep in mind,you can have a monolithic frontend and a separate monolithic backend(e.g.,“fake headless”).A composable eCommerce platform is like a headless system in that its cloud-based with backend and frontend systems that communicate with each other via APIs.The difgerence is that composable commerce uses packaged business capabilities(PBCs)to group microservices together.In a composable system,each function is separate and contained(e.g.,the order management system vs.the product information system).This modularity provides for more flexibility and easier upgrades.Its important to note that not all composable commerce solutions are equal.Some solutions require heavy IT involvement to build integrations and workflows between systems,which can increase costs and needed resources.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES9 Is the platform scalable and flexible?One of the biggest motivations to replatform is the need for an eCommerce system that can scale,extend,and pivot as your business strategy evolves.This is the only way to provide engaging omnichannel experiences that are frictionless and consistent across every touchpoint.As you compare vendors and platform types,consider the following:OUT-OF-THE-BOX CONNECTORS Most eCommerce platforms come with a library of out-of-the-box connectors that allow you to integrate popular applications and data sources.APIs APIs allow developers to create custom integrations by writing code that calls the platforms API.Some eCommerce platforms come with pre-built APIs to minimize the need for development resources.Extensibility Extensibility allows you to update the website or platform without afgecting the code base.You can make changes to the customer experience,workflows,or platform UI without a complete overhaul or fear of shutting down the site.B2C shoppers and B2B buyers alike are using multiple channels to make informed and convenient purchases requiring retailers to adopt complexities and commerce capabilities to meet heightening demands for omnichannel journeys.With a flexible and scalable platform,you can take advantage of its out-of-the-box functionalities for faster time to market,while extending it overtime based on your unique business and customer needs.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES10 According to Cognizant,there are eight important drivers to consider for an eCommerce platform selection process:Multisite,Multi-tenet(Single platform for multiple sites for unified customer view and ease of operations)Speed to Market(Faster market penetration and ROI realization)Content-Driven(Rich media content for more enhanced customer experience)Ease of Integrations(Simpler hooks to customer data platform(CDP),CMS,OMS,etc.)Headless or Composable Commerce ArchitectureNextGen Commerce Capabilities(i.e.,Voice-driven commerce,Augmented Reality,Virtual Reality)Advanced Analytics(AI/ML based,real-time analytics)Top Drivers for the platform selectionECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES11 Implementation CostsImplementation costs are anything involved with the initial launch of your eCommerce platform including:Professional services fees for things like project management,business analysis,and software development License fees for the eCommerce platform itself as well as any third-party applications or integrations you need Hardware costs like servers,storage,networking,and security Data migration costs Stafging costs for in-house resources dedicated to the project External consulting costs if you need to bring in outside expertise to help with the migrationMaintenance CostsMaintenance costs are the on-going fees associated with keeping your eCommerce platform running including:License fees for the eCommerce platform and any third-party applications or integrations Stafging costs for in-house resources dedicated to maintaining the platform Hosting fees Backup and disaster recovery costs Monitoring and security costs Infrastructure costs like servers,storage,networking,and securityCalculating the total cost of ownership of the platform The total cost of ownership(TCO)of an eCommerce platform includes all expenses,costs,and investments associated with your solutionincluding any downtime incurred from replatforming.Its helpful to calculate your expected TCO before you start the replatforming process so you can avoid surprises and realistically compare vendors.TCO can be broken down into three categories:implementation,maintenance,and optimization.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES12 Optimization CostsOptimization costs are the investments you make to continually improve your eCommerce platform over time including:Professional services fees for things like design,development,and user experience testing Website and app enhancements Content creation and management Search engine optimization(SEO)Analytics and reportingAs you can see,there are a lot of factors to consider when calculating the TCO of an eCommerce platform.Be sure to factor in all one-time and recurring costs so you can make an accurate comparison of vendors.Revenue Share from Digital Platform“One of the major criteria on the platform selection decision making process is how much revenue share does the brand specific digital platform bring into the equation.Based on the online revenue,you can pick and choose between the difgerent eCommerce platform vendors targeting the specific brand potential and requirements,”said Kannan.Brand digital online revenue categorization in 5 difgerent levels based on the market share as described below:1.SMB(500M )ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES13 8 Steps to eCommerce ReplatformingWeve already touched on some of the things you should consider when initiating an eCommerce replatforming project,but what does the process actually look like?Below,we provide 8 steps to clarify this process and help you get started.Create a data migration plan Moving and/or integrating data from one environment to another is complex and not without risk.Any replatforming initiative,therefore,requires a data migration plan.Your plan should include a timeline,benchmarks and goals,and a list of data sources and data points that need to be migrated.Your plan should also account for data growth,data retention,and the overall impact your migration will have on your search rankings.“Depending on the production cutover strategy the data synchronization process has to be finalized between two ways vs.one way between the Legacy and Modernized platforms until the transition is completed,”added Kannan.Outline requirements and business use cases Once your goals are outlined and you have support from leadership,you can create a more detailed replatforming plan that includes your business requirements and needs.Business use cases are an invaluable tool at this stage of planning.They force you to clarify specific scenarios that demonstrate how your replatformed eCommerce solution will be used.Use cases can be presented to potential vendors during the Request for Proposal(RFP)process to ensure they understand your needs and expectations.Define Your GoalsBefore you can start replatforming,you should fully outline your goalsincluding your needs and requirementsfor the initiative.Defining your goals does two things.It helps you create a clear plan of action/next steps and it enables you to better identify vendors that are a good match.Factors to consider include ease of use,functionality,security,support,timing,and pricing.Get buy-in from executive leadership Replatforming is a big undertaking that needs support from your organizations leadership.According to McKinsey,companies that succeed with cloud migration initiatives are over 30%more likely to have CEO buy in versus those that dont.This is why its critical for your organizations executivesincluding the CEOare fully on board.1324According to McKinsey,companies that succeed with cloud migration initiatives are over 30%more likely to have CEO buy in versus those that dont.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES14 Create a detailed RFP Once all the pieces are in place,you can begin vendor selection by issuing a Request for Proposal(RFP).An RFP is a formal document that outlines your business needs and requirements.This is where you can include your business use cases,data migration plan,and other criteria connected to your replatforming project.Be specific.A comprehensive RFP helps vendors provide tailored responses and demos while enabling you to make apples-to-apples comparisons.Establish a replatforming roadmap With your migration plan and team in place,youre ready to develop your replatforming roadmap.This document should include both short-and long-term milestones,identify risks and dependencies,and assign ownership to specific team members.This is a living document that will evolve as your project progresses.The roadmap provides a valuable framework for keeping everyone on track and ensuring your replatforming initiative is successful.Identify skill gaps that need to be filledThe success of your replatforming initiative will largely depend on having the right team in place to manage and support it.As you put together your project plan,map out the resources you have on hand and whats needed.This helps identify any skill gaps within your organization that youll need to fill with additional training,new hires,or outside consultants.Identifying skill gaps also helps with vendor selection,since some vendors provide consulting and resources to customers who need additional support.Vet the platforms partner communityA platforms partner community is made up of developers,designers,and other solution providers who build on or integrate with the platform.This community can provide a wealth of support and expertisebut only if its robust and active.When considering potential eCommerce platforms,look at the depth of its partner ecosystem.Check to see if the provider invests in integration points,testing,and documentation for partners.Make sure you understand how the platform manages third-party vendors and what kind of access youll have to them.5768A comprehensive RFP helps vendors provide tailored responses and demos while enabling you to make apples-to-apples comparisons.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES15 When is the right time to replatform?*My current system doesnt meet my needs We want to enter a new global or local market Our system cant handle our current trafgic or order volume We need to improve customer experience Support for our current platform is ending Our site is slow or unreliable Im not able to make changes or updates myself*selecting one or more of the above is a good indicator that the time is now.What to consider when vetting new platforms Person/team responsible for the replatforming initiative Business needs and objectives Technical capabilities Ease of use Flexibility Cost Support and maintenance Implementation timelineeCommerce Replatforming ChecklistWe know weve covered a lot in this guide and that replatforming can be a daunting task,so heres a checklist that summarizes all of the above information.Use it as a tool to kick ofg your replatforming project and keep everyone on track.ECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES16 Types of eCommerce platforms SaaS(Software-as-a-Service)Self-hosted/On Premises Monolithic Headless ComposableIntegrations Payment providers Shipping carriers Accounting software ERP systems CRM tools Marketing automation platforms Other software you rely onhttps:/TCO Professional service fees License fees Hardware costs Maintenance and support Hosting fees Training costs Opportunity costSteps inherent in replatforming Define your goals Get executive/leadership buy-in Outline business requirements and use cases Create a data migration plan Identify skill gaps and needs Vet platform third-party community Establish a replatforming roadmap Create a detailed RFPECOMMERCE REPLATFORMING:STEP-BY-STEP GUIDE FOR B2B&B2C COMPANIES17 Kibo Commerce is a composable digital commerce platform for retailers,manufacturers,distributors,and wholesalers who want to simplify the complexity in their businesses and deliver modern customer experiences.We are the only modular commerce platform supporting experiences that span Order Management,eCommerce,and Subscriptions.Companies like Zwilling,Ace Hardware,and Coastal Construction trust Kibo to bring simplicity and sophistication to commerce operations and exceed customer COMPLEX COMMERCE,SIMPLIFIED
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SDR Ventures：2022年下半年物流配送行业并购趋势报告（Engelse versie）（16页）.pdf
Investment Banking&Securities Offered Through SDR Capital Markets,LLC,Member FINRA&SIPC.DateDateTargetTargetBuyer(s)Buyer(s)SegmentSegmentAmountAmount($in Mil)($in Mil)TEV/TEV/RevRevTEV/TEV/EBITDAEBITDA1 2/1 5/22Wittichen Supply CompanyBeijer Ref Industrial Products1,301.022.0 x1 3.7x1 1/1/22Terra FirmaDKSH Management Industrial Products360.001.5x-1 1/1/22FormerraH.I.G.CapitalIndustrial Products950.00-1 0/5/22TexTrailDexter AxleAutomotive922.00-1 0/4/22SAAM PortsHapag-Lloyd Logistics Providers1,000.00-Source:Pitchbook Financial Data and AnalyticsNote:This data represents recorded transactions only,and is not all-inclusive.Nevertheless,they are typically representative of the industry.If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity If You Are a Business Owner Looking for Additional Transaction Activity Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.Within Your Industry,Please Call Our Offices at 720.221.9220.43 19 11 77 132 23 24 46 54 16-20 40 60 80 100 120 140Strategic54%Financial46%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%0 0c-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22AutomotiveBuilding ProductsElectronic ComponentsConsumer ProductsIndustrial ProductsHealthcare ProductsS&P 500 Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAGenuine PartsGPC24,493$1 73.51$23.8#.8.4%5.0%9.3%1.3x1 4.1 x20.9x1.2x1 3.6xLKQLKQ1 4,270 53.41(1 1.0%)(1 1.0%)88.4%(1.9%)1 4.1%1.4x9.7xNM1.4x1 0.1 xDorman ProductsDORM2,541 80.87(28.4%)(28.4%)67.9 .2%1 3.8%1.7x1 2.5x1 8.5x1.4x8.9xUni-SelectUNS1,384 31.60 56.5V.5.3%6.5%9.0%1.0 x1 1.2xNM0.9x9.0 xKamanKAMN625 22.30(48.3%)(48.3%)48.0%1 1.6%1 1.2%1.8x1 6.2x34.8x1.6x1 4.0 xSegment Average(1.5%)(1.5%)77.8%8.3.5%1.4x12.7x24.7x1.3x11.1xSegment M edian(11.0%)(11.0%)88.4%6.5.2%1.4x12.5x20.9x1.4x10.1xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMcKessonMCK53,1 90$375.1 2$50.9P.9.4%3.7%1.5%0.2x1 4.5x26.5x0.2x1 1.6xAmerisourceBergenABC33,486 1 65.71 24.7$.7.9%7.2%1.3%0.2x1 1.6x20.6x0.1 x9.7xCardinal HealthCAH20,1 50 76.87 49.3I.3.2%1 1.1%(0.1%)0.1 xNMNM0.1 x8.4xHenry ScheinHSIC1 0,826 79.87 3.0%3.0.2%2.0%8.7%1.1 x1 2.1 x1 7.4x1.0 x1 1.6xPatterson CompaniesPDCO2,721 28.03(4.5%)(4.5%)79.4%2.7%5.7%0.5x9.1 x1 3.8x0.5xNMOwens&MinorOMI1,489 1 9.53(55.1%)(55.1%)39.8%3.0%4.4%0.4x9.6x1 2.2x0.4x7.1 xSegment Average11.4.4.3%5.0%3.6%0.4x11.4x18.1x0.4x9.7xSegment M edian13.9.9.8%3.4%2.9%0.3x11.6x17.4x0.3x9.7xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAW.W.GraingerGWW28,1 07$556.25$7.3%7.3.9%7.6%1 5.7%2.1 x1 3.2x1 9.9x1.9x1 2.5xPOOLCORPPOOL1 1,806 302.33(46.6%)(46.6%)53.1%(3.1%)1 7.7%2.2x1 2.5x1 5.5x2.3x1 3.6xBeacon Roofing SupplyBECN3,435 52.79(8.0%)(8.0%)80.8%1.8%1 0.3%0.7x7.3x9.8x0.7x7.9xBoise CascadeBCC2,709 68.67(3.6%)(3.6%)80.6%(1 0.8%)1 5.5%NM1.8xNM0.3x4.7xBlueLinx HoldingsBXC643 71.1 1(25.7%)(25.7%)71.1%(20.7%)1 1.5%NM2.0 xNM0.3x4.2xHelix BioPharmaHBP32 0.1 6(32.6%)(32.6%)59.5%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMSegment Average(18.2%)(18.2%)72.7%(5.0%)14.1%1.7x7.3x15.1x1.1x8.6xSegment M edian(16.8%)(16.8%)75.9%(3.1%)15.5%2.1x7.3x15.5x0.7x7.9xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAW.W.GraingerGWW28,1 07$556.25$7.3%7.3.9%7.6%1 5.7%2.1 x1 3.2x1 9.9x1.9x1 2.5xArrow ElectronicsARW6,432 1 04.57(22.1%)(22.1%)75.8%(8.7%)6.1%0.3x4.4x4.9x0.3x4.8xWESCO InternationalWCC6,366 1 25.20(4.9%)(4.9%)85.1%7.3%7.3%0.6x7.9x8.7x0.5x6.6xAvnetAVT3,805 41.58 0.8%0.8.8%(6.8%)4.7%0.2x5.2x5.4x0.3x5.9xScanSourceSCSC741 29.22(1 6.7%)(1 6.7%)71.3%7.9%4.3%0.3x6.7x8.3x0.3x5.5xRichardson ElectronicsRELL297 21.33 57.8W.8x.3%1 6.8%1 0.4%1.1 x1 0.6x1 3.7x0.9xNMSegment Average3.7%3.7.7%4.0%8.1%0.8x8.0 x10.1x0.7x7.1xSegment M edian(2.0%)(2.0%)80.6%7.4%6.7%0.4x7.3x8.5x0.4x5.9xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDASyscoSYY38,742$76.45$(2.7%)(2.7%)83.5%9.1%4.7%0.7x1 4.9x27.1 x0.6x1 1.4xPerformance Food GroupPFGC9,090 58.39 27.2.2.2%7.3%1.7%0.3x1 4.3xNM0.2x1 0.4xUS FoodsUSFD7,651 34.02(2.3%)(2.3%)85.6%8.5%2.8%0.4x1 4.1 x37.8x0.4x8.8xUnited Natural FoodsUNFI2,31 6 38.71(21.1%)(21.1%)75.7%3.4%2.5%0.2x8.2x1 0.0 x0.2x7.0 xThe Chefs WarehouseCHEF1,490 33.28(0.1%)(0.1%)78.9!.8%4.6%0.7x1 6.3x36.6x0.6x9.6xSpartanNashSPTN1,066 30.24 1 7.4%1 7.4.1%4.8%2.0%0.2x9.9x1 9.6x0.2x7.4xSegment Average3.1%3.1.0%9.2%3.0%0.4x13.0 x26.2x0.4x9.1xSegment M edian(1.2%)(1.2%)81.8%7.9%2.6%0.3x14.2x27.1x0.3x9.2xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAW.W.GraingerGWW28,1 07$556.25$7.3%7.3.9%7.6%1 5.7%2.1 x1 3.2x1 9.9x1.9x1 2.5xFastenalFAST27,1 03 47.32(26.1%)(26.1%)73.6%7.0#.4%4.1 x1 7.3x25.4x3.8x1 6.4xGenuine PartsGPC24,493 1 73.51 23.8#.8.4%5.0%9.3%1.3x1 4.1 x20.9x1.2x1 3.6xWESCO InternationalWCC6,366 1 25.20(4.9%)(4.9%)85.1%7.3%7.3%0.6x7.9x8.7x0.5x6.6xMSC Industrial SupplyMSM4,573 81.70(2.8%)(2.8%)92.9%4.1%1 4.6%1.5x1 0.0 x1 3.5x1.4x9.3xDistributionNOWDNOW1,403 1 2.70 48.7H.7.0%1 3.6%6.9%0.6x8.3x1 3.2x0.5x6.7xMRC GlobalMRC968 1 1.58 68.3h.3.1%1 7.3%4.3%0.6x1 3.6xNM0.5x6.1 xSegment Average16.3.3.9%8.8.6%1.5x12.1x16.9x1.4x10.2xSegment M edian7.3%7.3.9%7.3%9.3%1.3x13.2x16.7x1.2x9.3xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5c-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22TransportationSoftwareWarehousing&StorageLogistics ProvidersS&P 500 Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAUnited Parcel ServiceUPS1 50,357$1 73.84$(1 8.9%)(1 8.9%)74.4%(0.6%)1 7.9%1.6x9.0 x1 3.6x1.6x9.9xOld Dominion Freight LineODFL31,352 283.78(20.8%)(20.8%)78.8%0.33.2%NMNMNMNMNMJ.B.Hunt TransportJBHT1 8,053 1 74.36(1 4.7%)(1 4.7%)79.9%(0.8%)1 3.5%1.3x9.7x1 8.2x1.3x9.3xKnight TransportationKNX8,422 52.41(1 4.0%)(1 4.0%)84.4%(5.5%)24.5%1.4x5.6x9.9x1.4x6.4xFedExFDX5,876 1 73.20(33.0%)(33.0%)64.9%(2.3%)9.5%0.8x8.6x1 3.6x0.8x8.0 xLandstar SystemLSTR5,852 1 62.90(9.0%)(9.0%)89.5%(1 8.8%)8.4%0.8x9.0 x1 3.5x0.9x1 1.8xSaiaSAIA5,549 209.68(37.8%)(37.8%)61.1%(0.7%)22.8%2.0 x8.8x1 5.5x2.0 x8.9xRyder SystemR4,1 99 83.57 1.4%1.4.9%3.2.6%0.9x3.4x5.2x0.9x3.8xSchneider NationalSNDR4,1 65 23.40(1 3.0%)(1 3.0%)85.1%(0.6%)1 4.9%0.6x4.0 x8.7x0.6x4.3xAtlas Air Worldwide HoldingsAAWW2,859 1 00.80 7.1%7.1.2%2.7!.2%1.0 x4.8x8.1 x1.0 x4.8xWerner EnterprisesWERN2,545 40.26(1 5.5%)(1 5.5%)82.5%8.1%1 9.7%0.9x4.8x1 0.2x0.9x5.0 xArcBest ARCB1,71 0 70.04(41.6%)(41.6%)56.5%(2.0%)1 0.8%0.3x3.2x5.5x0.4x3.8xMarten TransportMRTN1,604 1 9.78 1 5.3%1 5.3.4%9.2 .6%1.3x6.2x1 5.0 x1.2xNMHeartland ExpressHTLD1,21 1 1 5.34(8.8%)(8.8%)88.6a.99.0%2.1 x5.5x8.7x1.3x6.8xUniversal Logistics HoldingsULH879 33.44 77.3w.3.0%(3.4%)1 4.3%0.7x4.7x5.9x0.7xNMP.A.M.Transportation ServicesPTSI575 25.90(27.1%)(27.1%)64.8%4.0!.6%0.8x3.8x5.8x0.8xNMCanadian General InvestmentCGI502 23.97(30.6%)(30.6%)67.0%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMRoadrunner Transportation ServicesRRTS1 1 6 1.46(32.1%)(32.1%)39.1%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMUsak Seramik SanayiUSAK60 0.24 1 06.8%1 06.8.3%NM1 2.9%0.9x7.3x8.6xNMNMSegment Average(5.7%)(5.7%)76.9%3.4.6%1.1x6.1x10.4x1.1x6.9xSegment M edian(14.7%)(14.7%)82.0%(0.6%)19.7%0.9x5.5x9.3x0.9x6.6xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAAspen TechnologyAZPN1 3,257$205.40$35.05.0w.9v.5C.6%1 9.1 x43.7x51.2x1 0.8xNMManhattan AssociatesMANH7,575 1 21.40(21.9%)(21.9%)76.9%9.8%1 9.8%1 0.0 x50.5x69.4x9.1 x34.5xDescartes Systems GroupDSGX5,906 69.65(1 5.8%)(1 5.8%)83.3%8.9.3%1 2.0 x29.8x65.7x1 1.0 x24.7xSPS Commerce SPSC4,629 1 28.43(9.8%)(9.8%)87.5!.6!.3%1 0.2x48.0 xNM8.4x28.9xAmerican SoftwareAMSWA495 1 4.68(43.9%)(43.9%)54.5%(0.6%)1 2.4%NM24.2x47.4x3.0 x1 9.1 xPark City GroupPCYG91 4.95(1 4.7%)(1 4.7%)46.4%1 4.30.2%NMNMNM3.4xNMSegment Average(11.8%)(11.8%)71.1!.8.9.8x39.2x58.4x7.6x26.8xSegment M edian(15.2%)(15.2%)77.4.1%.8.1x43.7x58.5x8.7x26.8xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAPublic StoragePSA49,21 2$280.1 9$(25.2%)(25.2%)66.4%1 2.5%1 38.1%1 4.8x1 0.7x1 1.4x1 3.2x1 8.5xPACCARPCAR34,41 9 98.97 1 2.1%1 2.1.3%7.8%1 4.6%NM1 0.0 x1 3.3x1.4x8.9xExtra Space StorageEXR1 9,71 1 1 47.1 8(35.1%)(35.1%)64.3%1 5.7v.0%1 5.0 x1 9.7x21.4x1 3.0 x1 9.0 xWabtecWAB1 8,1 52 99.81 8.4%8.4.6%7.1%1 8.3%NM1 4.7x27.7x2.5x1 2.9xCubesmartCUBE9,039 40.25(29.3%)(29.3%)70.2%8.7g.7%1 2.6x1 8.3x35.3x1 1.6x1 7.5xNational Storage AffiliatesNSA3,282 36.1 2(47.8%)(47.8%)51.6%9.7e.6%1 0.1 x1 5.4x39.3x9.2x1 2.4xDana(Automotive)DAN2,1 69 1 5.1 3(33.7%)(33.7%)59.3%6.5%4.9%NM1 0.0 xNMNM5.8xWabash NationalWNC1,084 22.60 1 5.8%1 5.8.2%1 3.8%5.6%NM1 1.2x24.0 xNM6.0 xAmerican Axle&ManufacturingAXL896 7.82(1 6.2%)(1 6.2%)65.4%6.0%1 1.6%NMNMNMNMNMMiton UK MicroCap TrustMINI73 0.77(36.4%)(36.4%)60.6%NMNMNMNMNMNMNMSegment Average(18.7%)(18.7%)71.1%9.8D.7.1x13.7x24.6x8.5x12.6xSegment M edian(27.2%)(27.2%)65.9%8.7.3.7x12.9x24.0 x10.4x12.6xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples Company NameSymbolMarket Cap($in Mil)Price($)LTM ChangeYTD Change%of 52 Week HighEst.Revenue GrowthEBITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAUnited Parcel ServiceUPS1 50,357$1 73.84$(1 8.9%)(1 8.9%)74.4%(0.6%)1 7.9%1.6x9.0 x1 3.6x1.6x9.9xExpeditors International of WashingtonEXPD1 6,537 1 03.92(22.6%)(22.6%)76.9%(33.1%)1 1.5%0.8x6.8x1 0.9x1.2x1 0.5xC.H.Robinson WorldwideCHRW1 0,777 91.56(1 4.9%)(1 4.9%)75.5%(1 8.3%)5.6%0.5x9.0 x1 1.1 x0.6x1 2.2xFedExFDX5,876 1 73.20(33.0%)(33.0%)64.9%(2.3%)9.5%0.8x8.6x1 3.6x0.8x8.0 xXPO LogisticsXPO3,834 33.29(27.6%)(27.6%)70.4%(42.5%)1 3.1%0.5x4.1 xNM0.9x7.4xAtlas Air Worldwide HoldingsAAWW2,859 1 00.80 7.1%7.1.2%2.7!.2%1.0 x4.8x8.1 x1.0 x4.8xForward AirFWRD2,789 1 04.89(1 3.4%)(1 3.4%)83.4%1.7%1 5.5%1.5x1 0.0 x1 5.1 x1.5x9.7xAir Transport Services GroupATSG1,889 25.98(1 1.6%)(1 1.6%)75.2%9.23.3%1.6x4.9x1 1.2x1.5x4.8xPark Ohio HoldingsPKOH1 57 1 2.23(42.2%)(42.2%)52.1%1 1.1%3.3%0.5xNMNM0.5x7.0 xSegment Average(19.7%)(19.7%)74.7%(8.0%)14.5%1.0 x7.2x11.9x1.1x8.2xSegment M edian(18.9%)(18.9%)75.2%(0.6%)13.1%0.8x7.7x11.2x1.0 x8.0 xM arket Stats Operating Stats LTM M ultiples NTM M ultiples 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB%9%9FRGIA567%8%8%9%5QWUX9G96%8%6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSub DebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:The most current source of GF Data is as of November 2022.MultiplesSource:PitchBook Financial Data and Analytics2019202120202022*$0.0M$100.0B$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B$500.0B$600.0B1,3002,3003,3004,3005,3006,3002021 Q42022 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q4Deals ClosedDeals ClosedCapital Invested6.1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x7.0 x7.1x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x9.3x8.6x9.0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10.0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm$50-100mm$100-250mm1.“Why the 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国际移民组织 (IOM)：2020 年世界移民报告（英文版）（498 页）.pdf
WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020 The opinions expressed in the report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Organization for Migration(IOM).The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning its frontiers or boundaries.IOM is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society.As an intergovernmental organization,IOM acts with its partners in the international community to:assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration;advance understanding of migration issues;encourage social and economic development through migration;and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants.This flagship World Migration Report has been produced in line with IOMs Environment Policy and is available online only.Printed hard copies have not been made in order to reduce paper,printing and transportation impacts.The report is available for free download at www.iom.int/wmr._Publisher:International Organization for Migration 17 route des Morillons P.O.Box 17 1211 Geneva 19 Switzerland Tel.: 41 22 717 9111 Fax: 41 22 798 6150 Email:hqiom.int Website:www.iom.intCover photosTop:Children from Taro island carry lighter items from IOMs delivery of food aid funded by USAID,with transport support from the United Nations.IOM 2013/Joe LOWRYMiddle:Rice fields in Southern Bangladesh.IOM 2016/Amanda NERO Bottom:Ferrick Ibet village,Chad.IOM 2018/Amanda NERO Required citation:International Organization for Migration(IOM),2019.World Migration Report 2020.IOM.Geneva._ISSN 1561-5502e-ISBN 978-92-9068-789-4 IOM 2019Some rights reserved.This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 IGO License(CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO).*For further specifications please see the Copyright and Terms of Use.This publication should not be used,published or redistributed for purposes primarily intended for or directed towards commercial advantage or monetary compensation,with the exception of educational purposes e.g.to be included in textbooks.Permissions:Requests for commercial use or further rights and licensing should be submitted to publicationsiom.int.*https:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/legalcodePUB2019/006/L WMR 2020WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020 iiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020This volume is the result of a highly collaborative venture involving a multitude of partners and contributors under the direction of the editors.The World Migration Report 2020 project commenced in May 2018 and culminated in the launch of the report in November 2019 by the Director General at the 110th session of IOM Council.The findings,interpretations,conclusions and recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of IOM or its Member States.The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout the report do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IOM concerning the legal status of any country,territory,city or area,or of its authorities,or concerning its frontiers or boundaries.All reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the data referred to in this report,including through data verification.We regret,however,any data errors that may remain.Unless otherwise stated,this report does not refer to data or events after June 2019.The stories behind the photographs can be found on page v.iiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Editorial,review and production teamEditors Marie McAuliffe(IOM)and Binod Khadria(Jawaharlal Nehru University)IOM reviewers Eva kerman Brje,Laura Bartolini,Mariana Beheran,Elizabeth Collett,Jill Helke,Manuel Hoff,Dina Ionesco,Michele Klein Solomon,Jobst Khler,Laura Lungarotti,Chiara Milano,Daria Mokhnacheva,Mirela Shuteriqi,Jasper Tjaden,Mariam Traore Chazalnoel and Jacqueline WeekersAcademic reviewers Maruja Asis,Jrgen Carling,Stephen Castles,Howard Duncan,Gibril Faal,Elizabeth Ferris,Francois Gemenne,Ian Goldin,Sakiko Kanbara,Susan Martin,Marco Pedrotti,Martin Ruhs,Nando Sigona,Ronald Skeldon,Felicity Thomas,Anna Triandafyllidou and Cathy Zimmerman Production manager Valerie HaggerProject administration Frances Solinap and Aurelie Ben GavrielCopyeditor Michael Gibson Report layout Ramir RecintoIOM research team Marie McAuliffe,Cline Bauloz,Adrian Kitimbo,Michelle Nguyen(part project),Adam Sawyer(part project),Sophie Qu(part project)Translation Spanish Translation Unit(IOM)French Translation Unit(IOM)AcknowledgementsThe editors are particularly grateful to the authors of the thematic chapters and to all of the IOM and academic reviewers who provided constructive feedback on the draft chapters.We are especially grateful to IOMs Director General,Antnio Vitorino,and members of IOMs senior leadership team,who supported this World Migration Report,including Laura Thompson,Eugenio Ambrosi,Jill Helke,Michele Klein Solomon and Clarissa Azkoul.We also wish to acknowledge the governments of Switzerland and Germany for their financial contributions toward the completion of the report.Additional funding to support translations has been received from the Swiss Government,the Canadian Government,USA for IOM,IOM Regional Office for South America and IOM Regional Office for Central and North America and the Caribbean.We wish to thank the following people for their contributions to the report:Idil Atak(International Journal of Migration and Border Studies),Vincent Chetail(Refugee Survey Quarterly),Howard Duncan(International Migration),Alan Gamlen(Migration Studies),Donald Kerwin(Journal on Migration and Human Security),Emmanuel Ma Mung and Vronique Petit(Revue Europenne des Migrations Internationales),Anna Triandafyllidou(Journal of Immigrant and Refugee Studies),Jamie Winders,Pieter Bevelander,Cynthia Feliciano,Filiz Garip and Matthew Hall(International Migration Review),Ross Chainey(World Economic Forum),Hannah Caddick and Amy Leach(Overseas Development Institute),Robert McMahon(Council on Foreign Relations),Jason Naselli and Alan Philips(Chatham House),Homi Kharas,Dany Bahar and Merrell Tuck-Primdahl(Brookings Institution).ivWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Contributors Chapter 1:Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain times Authors:Marie McAuliffe and Binod KhadriaResearch assistants:Adrian Kitimbo and Berti OlintoChapter 2:Migration and migrants:A global overviewMain contributors:Marie McAuliffe,Cline Bauloz,Michelle Nguyen and Sophie QuResearch assistants and other contributors:Juliane Klatt,Adam Sawyer,Adrian Kitimbo,Reshma Mathews,Kate Dearden,Tristan OShea,Noelle Darbellay,Sarah Knight,Muhammad Rizki and Claire Galez-DavisChapter 3:Migration and migrants:Regional dimensions and developments Main contributors:Marie McAuliffe,Adrian Kitimbo,Guy Abel,Adam Sawyer and Juliane KlattResearch assistants and other contributors:Berti Olinto,Reshma Mathews,Alexander Doggen,Damien Jusselme,Alice Kimani,Lisa Lim Ah Ken,Rudolf Maxwald,Kristina Mejo,Lucie Bertille Motuin,Sophie Nonnenmacher,Sofiane Ouaret,Amr Taha,Ezequiel Texido,Mariko Tomiyama,Laura Nistri,Alina Klehr and Eva Pons Chapter 4:Migration research and analysis:Growth,reach and recent contributionsMain contributors:Marie McAuliffe,Cline Bauloz and Michelle NguyenResearch assistants and other contributors:Marie Mundler,Idil Atak(International Journal of Migration and Border Studies),Vincent Chetail(Refugee Survey Quarterly),Howard Duncan(International Migration),Alan Gamlen(Migration Studies),Donald Kerwin(Journal on Migration and Human Security),Emmanuel Ma Mung and Vronique Petit(Revue Europenne des Migrations Internationales),Anna Triandafyllidou(Journal of Immigrant and Refugee Studies),Jamie Winders,Pieter Bevelander,Cynthia Feliciano,Filiz Garip and Matthew Hall(International Migration Review),Ross Chainey(World Economic Forum),Hannah Caddick and Amy Leach(Overseas Development Institute),Robert McMahon(Council on Foreign Relations),Jason Naselli and Alan Philips(Chatham House),Homi Kharas,Dany Bahar and Merrell Tuck-Primdahl(Brookings Institution)Chapter 5:Reflections on migrants contributions in an era of increasing disruption and disinformationAuthors:Marie McAuliffe,Adrian Kitimbo and Binod KhadriaResearch Assistant:Michelle NguyenChapter 6:Migration,inclusion and social cohesion:Challenges,recent developments and opportunitiesAuthors:Cline Bauloz,Zana Vathi and Diego AcostaResearch Assistant:Michelle NguyenChapter 7:Migration and Health:Key issues,governance and current knowledge gapsAuthors:Jo Vearey,Charles Hui and Kolitha Wickramage Chapter 8:Children and unsafe migrationAuthors:Jacqueline Bhabha and Guy AbelChapter 9:Human mobility and adaptation to environmental changeAuthors:Robert Oakes,Soumyadeep Banerjee and Koko WarnerChapter 10:Migrants caught in crises:Contexts,responses and innovationAuthors:Nassim Majidi,Heaven Crawley,Lorenzo Guadagno and Camille KasavanResearch Assistants:Mlissa Cornet and Thomas YeboahvWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Chapter 11:Recent developments in the global governance of migration:An update to World Migration Report 2018Authors:Kathleen Newland,Marie McAuliffe and Cline BaulozPhotographsChapter 1Participatory video team recording their stories and messages of hope in Herat,Afghanistan.A group of 13 young Afghan women and men spent a week together in Herat to exchange experiences,direct and produce a film about migration.The initiative is part of IOMs Global Migration Film Festival Participatory Video Project to engage migrants and host communities in participatory filmmaking that strengthens social cohesion.IOM/Amanda NEROPart IMany Venezuelans travelling through the continent do so by foot carrying their children and possessions.Caminantes,or walkers,trek along major highways and through difficult terrain.They must go through mountainous areas where temperatures drop below zero and through scorching hot areas where water is scarce.Many make this journey with just a light jacket,rubber flip flops and a small backpack with the most essential items they manage to carry.IOM/Muse MOHAMMED Chapter 2Aerial view of internally displaced persons in Wau protection of civilians site,South Sudan.IOM/Rainer GONZALEZ PALAU Chapter 3The Kutupalong Refugee camp near Coxs Bazar,Bangladesh.IOM/Muse MOHAMMEDChapter 4Abdulai Adum,Mixammete Village,Central African Republic.IOM/Amanda NEROPart IIIOM shelters in Bakassi internally displaced persons Camp,Nigeria.IOM/Muse MOHAMMED Chapter 5 Robeiro,an ex-combatant from an illegal paramilitary group in Colombia,carries harvested chili peppers.Robeiro is one of 300 beneficiaries of an income generation project implemented by IOM Colombia.IOM/Diego SAMORAChapter 6Burmese migrant worker in Bangkok.IOM/Benjamin SUOMELAChapter 7IOM Thailands Migrant Health Assessment Centre on Silom Road in Bangkok provides health screenings for migrants who are about to migrate abroad.IOM/Benjamin SUOMELAChapter 8Children play at the playroom at the Processing Centre for Syrian families resettling to Canada.IOM/Muse MOHAMMED viWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Chapter 9Bercy is the principal of an elementary school on Udot Island,Federated States of Micronesia.During the typhoon,one of their buildings was severely damaged.The new building is used as a library for students.IOM/Muse MOHAMMED Chapter 10Mass Evacuations in Natural Disasters(MEND)-Quezon City,the Philippines.IOM/Charissa SORIANOChapter 11The second workshop of the International Dialogue on Migration 2017 offered a global platform to discuss and analyse migrants vulnerabilities and capacities,guide appropriate policy,programmatic and operational responses to address them,and enhance resilience through protection and assistance services.IOM/Muse MOHAMMEDReferencesChriss mother is so happy to find her son after he was separated from his mother and little brother during their migration.IOMAppendicesAmeerah and Anajia spend time practising their drawing skills after class(the Philippines).IOM/Julie BATULAviiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Table of contentsEditorial,review and production team.iiiAcknowledgements.iiiContributors.ivPhotographs.vList of figures and tables.viiiList of appendices.xiii Foreword.xvChapter 1 Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain times.1Part I:Data and information on migration and migrants.16Chapter 2 Migration and migrants:A global overview.19Chapter 3 Migration and migrants:Regional dimensions and developments.53Chapter 4 Migration research and analysis:Growth,reach and recent contributions.125PART II:Complex and Emerging Migration Issues.158Chapter 5 Reflections on migrants contributions in an era of increasing disruption and disinformation.161Chapter 6 Migration,inclusion and social cohesion:Challenges,recent developments and opportunities.185Chapter 7 Migration and health:Current issues,governance and knowledge gaps.209Chapter 8 Children and unsafe migration.231Chapter 9 Human mobility and adaptation to environmental change.253Chapter 10 Migrants caught in crises:Contexts,responses and innovation.271Chapter 11 Recent developments in the global governance of migration:An update to the World Migration Report 2018.291Appendices.313References.367viiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020List of figures and tablesChapter 1Table 1.Key facts and figures from the World Migration Reports,2000 and 2020.10Chapter 2 Table 1.International migrants,19702019.21Figure 1.International migrants,by major region of residence,2005 to 2019(millions).24Figure 2.Proportional population change by region,20092019.25Figure 3.Top 20 destinations(left)and origins(right)of international migrants in 2019(millions).26Figure 4.Top 20 countries of emigration in 2019(proportion).27Figure 5.Inflows of foreign nationals into OECD countries,permanent migration,20002016(millions).31Figure 6.Migrant workers by destination country income level,2013 and 2017.33Table 2.Migrant workers,by sex and income level of destination countries,2017.34Figure 7.Geographic distribution of migrant workers by sex,2017.35Table 3.Top countries receiving/sending remittances(20052018)(current USD billions).36Figure 8.Number of refugees by top 5 countries of origin as of 2018(millions).40Figure 9.Number of refugees by top 5 host countries as of 2018(millions).41Figure 10.Number of refugees resettled by major resettlement countries in 20052018(thousands).42Figure 11.Top 20 countries with the largest stock of internally displaced persons by conflict and violence at the end of 2018.44Figure 12.New internal displacements by conflict and disasters,20082018(millions).46Figure 13.Major populations of stateless persons by top 10 reporting countries as of 2018.48ixWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Chapter 3 Figure 1.Migrants to,within and from Africa 19902019.55Figure 2.Top 20 countries with the largest proportional population change in Africa,20092019.56Figure 3.Top 20 African migrant countries in 2019.57Figure 4.Top 20 migration corridors involving African countries,2019.58Figure 5.Top 10 African countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2018.59Figure 6.Top 20 African countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2018.60Figure 7.Migrants to,within and from Asia,19902019.69Figure 8.Top 20 countries with the largest proportional population change in Asia,20092019.70Figure 9.Top 20 Asian migrant countries in 2019.71Figure 10.Top 20 migration corridors from Asian countries,2019.72Figure 11.Top 10 Asian countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2018.73Figure 12.Top Asian countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2018.74Figure 13.Migrants to,within and from Europe,19902019.86Figure 14.Top 20 countries with the largest proportional population change in Europe,20092019.87Figure 15.Top 20 European migrant countries in 2019.88Figure 16.Top 20 migration corridors involving European countries,2019.89Figure 17.Top 10 European countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2018.90Figure 18.Top 20 European countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2018.91Figure 19.Migrants to,within and from Latin America and the Caribbean,19902019.96Figure 20.Top 20 countries with the largest proportional population change in Latin America and the Caribbean,20092019.97Figure 21.Top 20 Latin America and Caribbean migrant countries in 2019.98Figure 22.Top 10 migration corridors involving Latin America and Caribbean countries,2019.99xWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Figure 23.Top 10 Latin America and Caribbean countries by total refugees and asylum seekers,2018.100Figure 24.Top Latin America and Caribbean countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2018.101Figure 25.Migrants to,within and from Northern America,19902019.107Figure 26.Countries with the largest proportional population change in Northern America,20092019.108Figure 27.Main migration countries in Northern America in 2019.108Figure 28.Top 10 migration corridors involving Northern American countries,2019.109Figure 29.Numbers of refugees and asylum seekers in and from Northern American countries,2018.110Figure 30.Top Northern American countries by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2018.110Figure 31.Migrants to,within and from Oceania,19902019.114Figure 32.Countries with the largest proportional population change in Oceania,20092019.115Figure 33.Oceania migrant countries in 2019.116Figure 34.Top 10 migration corridors involving Oceania countries,2019.117Figure 35.Numbers of refugees and asylum seekers in and from Oceania countries,2018.118Figure 36.Top countries in Oceania by new internal displacements(disaster and conflict),2018.119Chapter 4 Figure 1.Number of academic publications on“immigration”OR“emigration”.127Table 1.Examples of government funding of migration research.129Figure 2.Number of articles published by selected journals in 2017 and 2018,by region.138Figure 3.Distribution of primary academic affiliations of authors by selected journals in 2017 and 2018,by region.140Figure 4.Impact Factor of selected journals.142Table 2.Top 10 articles with the highest Altmetric Attention Score for selected journals,2017 and 2018.143xiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Figure 5.Distribution of numbers of views and downloads of 181 articles from 2017 and 2018,selected journals.145Table 3.Examples of key global material published in 2017 and 2018.146Figure 6.Downloads of World Migration Report 2018 compared with 2015 edition.153Figure 7.Proportion of IOM research-related downloads by theme.153Figure 8.Proportion of IOM research-related downloads by region.154Chapter 5 Table 1.Factors influencing immigrants civicpolitical contributions.169Chapter 6Table 1.Summary of the main inclusion models.189Chapter 7Figure 1.The determinants of migrant health throughout the migration cycle.212Table 1.Summary of main health concerns of selected migrant groups in vulnerable situations.215Figure 2.Global agendas for advancing migration and health goals.224Chapter 8Figure 1.Global migrants under 20 years of age.236Figure 2.Share of global migrants under 20 years of age.237Figure 3.International migrants(millions)under 20 years of age,by region.238Figure 4.Share of international migrants under 20 years of age,by region.239Table 1.IOM/UNHCR/education sector Rohingya child and youth population in Coxs Bazar Refugee camps,Bangladesh,January 2019.240Figure 5.Demographic breakdown of Myanmar refugees in Bangladesh.240Figure 6.Demographic breakdown of Venezuelans in Colombia.241xiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Chapter 9 Table 1.Three different ways of framing interactions between environmental change and migration.254Table 2.Examples from empirical research.258Figure 1.Emergence of human migration as a risk management topic in international climate policy.265Chapter 10Table 1.International data on migrants and crises.281Figure 1.Migrant routes in Mexico,cyclone risk and past earthquakes.283Figure 2.Migrant presence and transit through Libya,and occurrence of violence.284Table 2.The OECD guidelines on innovation adapted for responses to migrants caught in crisis.286Chapter 11Figure 1.What does“migrant”mean?.294Figure 2.Summary of the compacts and United Nations Network process timelines.295Table 1.Global Compact for Migration objectives by category.298Table 2.Thematic areas of focus in CRRF and Programme of Action.300 xiiiWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020List of appendicesChapter 3Appendix A.United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:Regions and Subregions.313Chapter 4Appendix A.A brief overview of academic publishing.318Appendix B.Contributions from academic journals.321Chapter 6Appendix A.Terms and definitions relating to migrants inclusion and social cohesion.338Appendix B.The legal framework of migrants inclusion.341Appendix C.Main findings of the Immigrant Citizens Survey.343Chapter 7Appendix A.Key priorities and actions for monitoring migrant health and developing migrant-sensitive health systems.345Appendix B.Lessons learned in advancing a National Migration Health Policy and action framework in Sri Lanka.347Appendix C.Health in the implementation of the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration.350Chapter 9Appendix A.Policy processes of significance for the governance of environmental migration.351xivWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Chapter 10Appendix A.Different crisis situations,different impacts on migrants.354Chapter 11Appendix A.Timeline of main multilateral initiatives,processes,agreements and declarations devoted or relevant to migration.356Appendix B.Convergence and divergence between the Global Compact for Migration and prior global migration initiatives and processes.360 xvWORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020ForewordIOMs responsibility to provide an objective and balanced account of migration globally has never been more important.Not only is the political salience of migration high,and frequently fevered,but the capacity for rapidly disseminating disinformation to influence the public discourse has expanded.Twenty years ago,IOM published the first World Migration Report with the stated aim of providing an authoritative account of migration trends and issues worldwide.With the initial report published in 2000,the series has quickly become established as IOMs flagship publication.The early World Migration Reports were framed around specific themes.They provided deep dives into topics such as labour mobility,migrant well-being and communication on migration.But,with time,there was a sense that the broader landscape and complexity of migration issues was being neglected.Times have changed,dramatically so.Migration is now a top-tier political issue interconnected to human rights,development,and geopolitics at national,regional and international levels.Accordingly,IOM has enhanced the flagship series to ensure that the World Migration Report is,in fact,a world migration report.We have revamped the series to offer a more strategic contribution to the public debate.We have strengthened our collaborative partnerships with scholars and applied researchers in order to benefit from their diverse expertise and knowledge.We have made content and structural changes to increase the World Migration Reports utility to the evidence base on migration globally,in line with IOMs growing role in data collection and analysis.The World Migration Report 2018 is the most downloaded of all IOM publications.It is clearly fulfilling the need to provide a balanced understanding of migrations complexities,present the latest global data and information in an accessible way,and explore and explain complex and emerging migration issues.As the United Nations migration agency,IOM has an obligation to demystify the complexity and diversity of human mobility.The report also acknowledges IOMs continuing emphasis on fundamental rights and its mission to support those migrants who are most in need.This is particularly relevant in the areas in which IOM works to provide humanitarian assistance to people who have been displaced,including by weather events,conflict and persecution,or to those who have become stranded during crises.Likewise,IOM remains committed to supporting Member States as they draw upon various forms of data,research and analysis during policy formulation and review processes.Indeed,this is reflected in IOMs Constitution where the need for migration research is highlighted as an integral part of the Organizations functions.The World Migration Report is a central component of this important function.In this era of heightened interest and activity towards migration and migrants,we hope this 2020 edition of the World Migration Report becomes a key reference point for you.We hope it helps you to navigate this high-profile and dynamic topic during periods of uncertainty,and that it prompts reflection during quieter moments.But most importantly,we hope that you learn something new from the report that can inform your own work,be it in studies,research and analysis,policymaking,communication,or migration practice.Antnio VitorinoDirector GeneralxviReport overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timesMARIE MCAULIFFEBINOD KHADRIA1WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 20201REPORT OVERVIEW:PROVIDING PERSPECTIVE ON MIGRATION AND MOBILITY IN INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN TIMES1IntroductionThe long-term and growing body of evidence on migration and mobility shows that migration is in large part related to the broader global economic,social,political and technological transformations that are affecting a wide range of high-priority policy issues.2 As the processes of globalization deepen,these transformations increasingly shape our lives in our workplaces,in our homes,in our social and spiritual lives as we go about our daily routines.Increasing numbers of people are able to access information,goods and services from around the world because of the ongoing expansion in distance-shrinking technologies.There is also a sense that we are in the midst of a period of considerable uncertainty.Many commentators have called into question the solidity of aspects of the global political order forged in the immediate aftermath of the two world wars,including as they relate to alliances and common interests.3 Others are calling this time the“age of anger”,tracing back the current sense of geopolitical uncertainty and discontent to a dominant and relentless focus on“logic”and“liberal rationalism”at the expense of emotional responsiveness.4 It is within this context that this world migration report focuses on developments in migration over the last two-year period,with an emphasis on providing analysis that takes into account historical and contemporary factors.Historical in recognition that migration and displacement occur within broader long-term social,security,political and economic contexts.Contemporary in recognition that we are in the midst of profound global transformations,and that the resultant changes to our daily lives are impacting the current environment in which migration occurs and is discussed.What has happened in migration?A lot has happened in migration in the last two years since the release of the World Migration Report 2018 in late 2017.5 The world has witnessed historic change at the global level with United Nations Member States coming together to finalize two global compacts on the international manifestations of migration and displacement:the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration,and the Global Compact on Refugees.The finalization of the compacts is a result of decades-long efforts by States,international organizations,civil society organizations and other actors(such as private sector organizations)to improve 1MarieMcAuliffe,Head,MigrationPolicyResearchDivision,IOMandBinodKhadria,Professor,JawaharlalNehruUniversity.2See,forexample,Castles,2010;Goldin,CameronandBalarajan,2011;Koser,2016;Triandafyllidou,2018.3Ikenberry,2018;Stone,2016.4Mishra,2017.5IOM,2017.2Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timeshow migration is governed at the international level.In the years leading up to States committing to develop the compacts,6 numerous dialogues,workshops,consultations and side events at international,regional,national as well as local levels have enabled different migration“realities”to be shared and the many areas of common interest to be expanded through deeper understandings of the benefits of migration as well as the challenges it may present.The compacts,therefore,build upon many years of engagement on the key issues underpinning the two compacts.The unfortunate reality is that there have been major migration and displacement events during the last two years;events that have caused great hardship and trauma as well as loss of life.Foremost have been the displacements of millions of people due to conflict(such as within and from the Syrian Arab Republic,Yemen,the Central African Republic,the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan),extreme violence(such as inflicted upon Rohingya forced to seek safety in Bangladesh)or severe economic and political instability(such as faced by millions of Venezuelans).There has also been growing recognition of the impacts of environmental and climate change on human mobility(such as planned migration/relocation and displacement),including as part of global efforts and international policy mechanisms to address the broader impacts of climate change.7 Large-scale displacement triggered by climate and weather-related hazards occurred in many parts of the world in 2018 and 2019,including in Mozambique,the Philippines,China,India and the United States of America.8 We have also seen the scale of international migration increase in line with recent trends.The number of international migrants is estimated to be almost 272 million globally,with nearly two-thirds being labour migrants.9 This figure remains a very small percentage of the worlds population(at 3.5%),meaning that the vast majority of people globally(96.5%)are estimated to be residing in the country in which they were born.However,the estimated number and proportion of international migrants already surpasses some projections made for the year 2050,which were in the order of 2.6 per cent or 230 million.10 That said,it is widely recognized that the scale and pace of international migration is notoriously difficult to predict with precision because it is closely connected to acute events(such as severe instability,economic crisis or conflict)as well as long-term trends(such as demographic change,economic development,communications technology advances and transportation access).11 We also know from long-term data that international migration is not uniform across the world but is shaped by economic,geographic,demographic and other factors resulting in distinct migration patterns,such as migration“corridors”developed over many years(see chapter 3 of this report for details).The largest corridors tend to be from developing countries to larger economies such as those of the United States,France,the Russian Federation,the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.This pattern is likely to remain the same for many years into the future,especially as populations in some developing subregions and countries are projected to increase in coming decades,placing migration pressure on future generations.12Highlights from Part I of the report on data and information on migration and migrants are outlined below.Further information and discussion are provided in the report.6Statescommitmentwasarticulatedinthe2016NewYorkDeclarationforRefugeesandMigrants(UNGA,2016).7Seechapter9ofthisreportfordetaileddiscussion.8Seechapters2and3ofthisreportfordiscussionsonglobalandregionalmigrationdataandinformation.9UNDESA,2019a;ILO,2018.10 See,forexample,IOM2003.11 WEF,2019;UNDESA,2003.12 UNDESA2019b.3WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Highlights from Part I:Data and information on migration and migrantsThe number of international migrants globally in 2019:272 million(3.5%of the worlds population)52percentofinternationalmigrantsweremale;48percentwerefemale.74percentofallinternationalmigrantswereofworkingage(2064years).India continued to be the largest country of origin of international migrants Indiahadthelargestnumberofmigrantslivingabroad(17.5million),followedbyMexicoandChina(11.8millionand10.7millionrespectively).ThetopdestinationcountryremainedtheUnitedStates(50.7millioninternationalmigrants).The number of migrant workers declined slightly in high income countries while increasing elsewhere Between2013and2017,high-incomecountriesexperiencedaslightdropinmigrantworkers(from112.3millionto111.2million).Uppermiddle-incomecountriesobservedthebiggestincrease(from17.5millionto30.5million).Globally,malemigrantworkersoutnumberedfemalemigrantworkersby28millionin2017.Therewere96millionmalemigrantworkers(58%)and68millionfemalemigrantworkers(42%).International remittances increased to USD 689 billion in 2018 Thetop3remittancerecipientswereIndia(USD78.6billion),China(USD67.4billion)andMexico(USD35.7billion).TheUnitedStatesremainedthetopremittance-sendingcountry(USD68.0billion)followedbytheUnitedArabEmirates(USD44.4billion)andSaudiArabia(USD36.1billion).The global refugee population was 25.9 million in 2018 20.4millionrefugeeswereunderthemandateoftheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR)and5.5millionwererefugeesunderthemandateoftheUnitedNationsReliefandWorksAgencyforPalestineRefugees(UNRWA)intheNearEast.52percentoftheglobalrefugeepopulationwasunder18yearsofage.The number of internally displaced persons due to violence and conflict reached 41.3 million ThiswasthehighestnumberonrecordsincetheInternalDisplacementMonitoringCentrebeganmonitoringin1998.TheSyrianArabRepublichadthehighestnumberofpeopledisplaced(6.1million)followedbyColombia(5.8million)andtheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo(3.1million).The number of stateless persons globally in 2018 was 3.9 million Bangladeshhadthelargestnumberofstatelesspersons(around906,000).ItwasfollowedbyCtedIvoire(692,000)andMyanmar(620,000).Forfurtherdetails,refertochapter2ofthisreport.Sourcesanddatesofestimatesaboveareoutlinedinthechapter.4Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timesMigration patterns vary from region to region WhilemostinternationalmigrantsborninAfrica,AsiaandEuroperesidewithintheirregionsofbirth,themajorityofmigrantsfromLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanandNorthernAmericaresideoutsidetheirregionsofbirth.InOceania,thenumberofintraregionalmigrantsandthoseresidingoutsidetheregionremainedaboutthesamein2019.Morethanhalfofallinternationalmigrants(141million)livedinEuropeandNorthernAmerica.Migration has been a key determinant of population change in several countries IntraregionalmigrationhasbeenanimportantcontributortopopulationchangeinsomeAfricancountriessuchasEquatorialGuinea.LabourmigrationhascontributedtosignificantpopulationchangesespeciallyinGulfCooperationCouncil(GCC)States.WiththeexceptionsofOmanandSaudiArabia,migrantsmadeupthemajorityofthepopulationsinGCCcountries.Displacement remained a major feature in some regions The Syrian Arab Republic and Turkey were the origin and host of the largest number ofrefugeesglobally,6.7millionand3.7million,respectively.Canadabecamethelargestrefugeeresettlementcountry,resettlingmorerefugeesthantheUnitedStatesin2018.ThePhilippineshadthelargestnumberofnewdisasterdisplacementsin2018(3.8million).Around4millionVenezuelanshadlefttheircountrybymid-2019.TheBolivarianRepublicofVenezuelawasthelargestsourcecountryofasylumseekersin2018(over340,000).Forfurtherdetails,refertochapter3ofthisreport.Sourcesanddatesofestimatesaboveareoutlinedinthechapter.Migration research and analysis output remained high Therewasacontinuedincreaseinthenumberofmigration-relatedacademicpublications,withthelargesteveracademicoutputproducedduringthelasttwoyears.Therewassignificantoutputfrominternationalorganizationsonawiderangeofmigrationissues.Academic output on migration is dominated with perspectives from destination countries,especiallyinrelationtoEurope.Ageographiccomparisonoftheprimaryaffiliationsofauthorsinselectedjournalsshowsthatmostarefrominstitutionsindevelopedcountries.Forfurtherdetails,refertochapter4ofthisreport.Sourcesanddatesofestimatesaboveareoutlinedinthechapter.Is migration changing,or are the depictions of migration changing?As can be seen from the discussion and key highlights above,there have been incremental changes in migration in recent years,such as in the overall scale of migration and displacement,although these changes could not be described as“seismic”.Rather,it would appear that there has been a deepening of existing patterns of migration as opportunities brought about by economic growth and reform,trade liberalization and long-term stability have been further realized.There is also a growing body of evidence indicating that while the general notion of international migration may seem simple and straightforward as depicted in 5WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020news media,for example its complexities are becoming more apparent.13 The issue of how we conceptualize migration and mobility has long been a focus of many scholars and policymakers.14 Recently,some are calling for a rethink,highlighting the growing anomalies resulting from a fairly fixed view of“migration”see text box below on Professor Ronald Skeldons recent paper on the topic.Rethinking international migration,internal migration,mobility and urbanizationThatmigrationisthemostproblematicofthepopulationvariablesistakenasgiven.Unliketheuniqueeventsofbirthanddeaththatdefineanindividualslifetime,migrationcanbeamultipleevent.Itsmeasurementdependsentirelyuponhowitisdefinedintimeandacrossspace.Despitealltheproblemsinherentinthecollectionofmigrationdata,significantprogresshasbeenachieved over recent years.The compilation of a world origin-destination database,developedoriginallyattheUniversityofSussexandnowmuchextendedandmaintainedbytheUnitedNationsPopulationDivisionandtheWorldBank,hasprovidedtheframeworkforamoreprecisemeasurementofglobalinternationalpopulationmovement.aThesedatashowedthatabout3percentoftheworldspopulationlivedinaStateorterritorynotoftheirbirthandthatthatproportionhadnotchangedsignificantlysincethe1990sAsthesystemsofinternalandinternationalmigrationevolveandchange,sotoo,doesthenatureofthelinkagesbetweenthemotherformsofshort-termmobilityemergefromessentiallyurbanculturesandeconomies.Theideathatmostpeopledonotmoveorarefixedataspecificlocationmightbeappealingbutitiswrong.Mobilityisaninherentcharacteristicofallpopulationsunlessspecificpoliciesorotherfactorsareinplacethatlimitorcontrolthatmobility.Nevertheless,somepeoplesappeartomovemorethanothersandindifferentwaysfromothers,whichappearstobecloselylinkedwiththelevelofdevelopmentineachcountry,which,inturn,islinkedwiththedistributionofthepopulationineachcountry.Despiteallthedifficultieswiththemeasurementofinternalmigrationassketchedabove,considerableprogresshasbeenmadetowardstheconstructionofanalyticalmodelsthatallowthecomparisonofpatternsacrossspace.a Parsonsetal.,2007;UNDESA,2015.AbridgedexcerptofSkeldon,2018.We must recognize,however,that the increasing complexity of migration is,in part,also due to more information on migration and migrants being available than ever before.We know more about who migrates,why people migrate,where and how they migrate,although perhaps not to the extent we would prefer.But it is clearer that the bigger issue of“complexity”applies to very many changes occurring globally.Some of the specific ones,highlighted in the textbox below,have been intensively explored and analysed by experts in Part II of this report.13 CzaikaanddeHaas,2014;DeWitte,2018;HallandPosel,2019.14 FaistandGlick-Schiller,2009;HochschildandMollenkopf,2008;King,2012.6Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timesHighlights from Part II:Complex and emerging migration issues Migrantshavemadesignificantsociocultural,civic-politicalandeconomiccontributionsinoriginanddestinationcountriesandcommunities,includingbybeingimportantagentsofchangeinarangeofsectors(chapter5).Immigrantstendtohavehigherentrepreneurialactivitycomparedtonatives.IncountriessuchastheUnitedStates,migrantshavedisproportionatelycontributedtoinnovation(chapter5).Migrantsinclusioninthereceivingsocietyrelatestodiversesocietal/policyareasthatarecloselyinterdependent.Inclusionoutcomesinonepolicyareasuchaslanguage,education,labourmarketinclusion,familyreunification,politicalparticipationandnaturalizationwilllikelyimpactothers(chapter6).Thereisadynamicandcomplexrelationshipbetweenmigrationandhealththatextendswellbeyondcrisisevents.Migrationcanleadtogreaterexposuretohealthrisksbutitcanalsobelinkedtoimprovedhealth,especiallyforthoseseekingsafetyfromharm(chapter7).Whilethemajorityofchildrenwhomigratedosothroughsafemigrationprocessesaspartoffamilyunits,manyotherchildmigrantslackeffectiveprotectionfromharmandfacehumanrightsviolationsatallstagesoftheirjourneys(chapter8).The most recent global estimate for the total number of child migrants is approximately31million.Thereareapproximately13millionchildrefugees,936,000asylum-seekingchildren,and17millionchildrenwhohavebeenforciblydisplacedinsidetheirowncountries(chapter8).Thereisincreasingevidencethatthemagnitudeandfrequencyofextremeweathereventsarerising,andthisisexpectedtoincreasinglyaffectmigrationandotherformsofmovement.Whilehumanmobilityresultingfromenvironmentalandclimatechangeisoftenframedalongprotectionandsecuritylines,understandingmobilityasadaptationallowsformigrantsagencytobepartoftheresponseequation(chapter9).Migration status can significantly impact on migrants ability to deal with crisis.Flexibleimmigrationandvisapolicieshelpmakeitpossibleformigrantstokeepthemselvessafeaswellasrecoverfromtheimpactofacrisis.Returnisone,butnotnecessarilytheprimary,responseoption(chapter10).The last two years have seen substantial change in the global governance of migration,principallyintheformationoftheUnitedNationsNetworkonMigrationandthetwoglobalcompactsonrefugeesandmigration.Althoughtheyarenotlegallybinding,thetwoglobalcompactsrepresentanear-universalconsensusontheissuesrequiringsustainedinternationalcooperationandcommitment(chapter11).7WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020The unprecedented pace of change in the(geo)political,social,environmental and technological spheres has led some analysts and commentators to coin or use phrases such as the“age of accelerations”,15 the“fourth industrial revolution”,16 and the“age of change”.17 There is wide recognition of how quickly the world is changing,and of how the pace of change seems to be accelerating beyond all expectations and predictions.There is also a sense that change is resulting in unexpected(and unwanted)impacts:We are living through an era of intense turbulence,disillusionment and bewilderment.Deepening geopolitical tensions are transforming international relations,and political tribalism is revealing deep fissures within countries.The spread of exponential technologies is upending long-held assumptions about security,politics,economics and so much more.18 Of particular note have been major shifts in the political realm,particularly in terms of civic engagement through emerging social media and other online platforms as well as the standards of political leadership.The“Arab Spring”,for example,heralded a significant development in how voices were heard and activists organized in political arenas.19 More recently,we have seen a groundswell in analysis and commentary on the changes that are occurring in democratic systems around the world,and the implications for governance,geopolitics and international cooperation.We are living in a period in which the core values underpinning global governance are being challenged.The values of equity,accountability,impartiality,fairness,justice and probity are being actively undermined as some political leaders disregard common interest in preference for personal interest even if it corrodes laws,processes and institutions that have,overall,sought to advance whole nations and peoples,without excluding or expelling some because of their inherent characteristics or beliefs.20 Ongoing and systematic corrosion,as we have witnessed throughout history,can extend to attacks on human rights and ultimately on groups of people within societies.21As part of current shifts,international migration has increasingly become weaponized.It is being used by some as a political tool,undermining democracy and inclusive civic engagement,by tapping into the understandable fear in communities that stems from the accelerated pace of change and rising uncertainty of our times.22 Some leaders seek to divide communities on the issue of migration,downplaying the significant benefits and enrichment migration brings and steadfastly ignoring our migration histories.And we are increasingly witnessing the harnessing of social media as a means of division and polarization,not just on migration,but at certain times we have seen the deployment of online“tribal tactics”by activists attempting to depict migration in a negative and misleading light.23 Underpinning these changing depictions of international migration is the uptake of technological innovation,particularly information and communications technology(ICT).However,we must also recall that the politicization of migration is not new,as the text box below highlights.15 Friedman,2016.16 Schwab,2016.17 Mauldin,2018.18 MuggahandGoldin,2019.19 AlSayyadandGuvenc,2015.20 Fotaki,2014.21 Rawnsley,2018.22 Ritholtz,2017.23 McAuliffe,2018.8Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timesThe enduring issue of politics:Excerpt from the World Migration Report 2003aMigrationisaneminentlypoliticaltopic.Overthepastdecade,thepoliticizationofmigrationhasbeenevidencedbyaseriesofdevelopments:thefearinWesterncountriesofaninfluxofmassesofmigrantsfromcountriesoftheformerSovietblocandinEuropeanUnioncountriesofaninvasionbycitizensfromnewmembercountrieswitheachenlargementoftheUnion;thequestioningoftheroleofmigrantsintheeconomicandsocialupheavalstriggeredbythefinancialcrisisinSouth-EastAsia;restrictivepoliciesandanti-immigrationbacklashinthewakeoftheterroristattacksofSeptember11,2001;renewedoutbreaksofxenophobiainseveralAfricancountriesthatblamedomesticcrisesonmigrants;andtheexploitationofmigrationissuesbysomepoliticianstogainelectoralmileage.Alltheseexamplesillustratethecloselinksbetweeneconomic,politicalandsocialissuesontheonehand,andmobilityontheother.Morethanevertherefore,migrationisareadytargetwithpsychological,economic,andpublicrelationsconnotations.a IOM,2003.Technology as an enabler and a game-changerMigration is intertwined with technology and innovation and there exists a large body of analysis that has assessed how international migration acts to support(and sometimes limit)the transfer of technology and knowledge,often working in tandem with investment and trade flows along historical,geographic and geopolitical connections between countries and communities.24 Technology is increasingly critical throughout the migration process,especially newer forms of technology.In recent years,for example,we have witnessed the use of ICT by migrants to gather information and advice in real time during migration journeys;an issue that is raising interest and,at times,concern.The use of ICT,such as apps to share the latest information,including to support clandestine border crossings,together with the consolidation of social media platforms to connect geographically dispersed groups with common interests,has raised valid questions concerning the extent to which technology has been used to support irregular migration,as well as to enable migrants to avoid abusive and exploitative migrant smugglers and human traffickers.25 Due to the ever-increasing access to emerging technology at low cost,migrants have also developed applications to support better integration in receiving countries,while maintaining social links and financial support to their families and societies back home,including through the increasing prevalence of“mobile money”apps.Other connections between migration and technology are also emerging in migration debates.As artificial intelligence is progressively taken up in key sectors,its consequences for migrant worker flows and domestic labour markets are areas of intense focus for policymakers and businesses in origin and receiving countries.26 24 BurnsandMohapatra,2008;Kapur,2001;Khadria,2004.25 McAuliffe,2016;Sanchez,2018.26 McAuliffe,2018.9WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Recent discussions have also turned to blockchain technology and its consequences for migration,especially for remittances,but also for digital identities and global mobility.27 Social media technology is also increasingly impacting the politics of migration,with a surge of far-right activism on social media platforms seeking to influence political debates and ultimately political decisions.28 It is within this current context of great change and increasing uncertainty that the World Migration Report 2020 seeks to draw upon the body of available data,research and analysis to contribute to a more nuanced understanding of some of the most important and pressing global migration issues of our time.By their very nature,the complex dynamics of migration can never be fully measured,understood and regulated.However,as this report shows,we do have a continuously growing and improving body of data and evidence that can help us make better sense of the basic features of migration and how they are changing as well as understanding how the context in which migration is occurring is evolving.This is increasingly important as public debates,littered with misinformation and untruths,are increasingly able to utilize the ongoing expansion of open“new media”platforms to achieve distortion and misrepresentation of migration and migrants.The World Migration Report seriesThe first World Migration Report was published 20 years ago,initially as a one-off report designed to increase the understanding of migration by policymakers and the general public.It was conceived at a time when the effects of globalization were being felt in many parts of the world and in a multitude of ways.Indeed,the first World Migration Report states that part of its genesis was due to the effects of globalization on migration patterns,and that the report therefore“looks at the increasingly global economy which has led to an unprecedented influx of newcomers in many countries”.29 The report highlighted the fact that,despite being an“age-old phenomenon”,migration was accelerating as part of broader globalization transformations of economic and trade processes,which were enabling greater movement of labour as well as goods and capital.Table 1 below provides a summary of key statistics reported in the World Migration Report 2000,as compared to this current edition.It shows that while some aspects have stayed fairly constant the proportion of female international migrants as well as the overall proportion of the worlds population who were migrants other aspects have changed dramatically.International remittances,for example,have grown from an estimated 126 billion in 2000 to 689 billion in 2020,underscoring the salience of international migration as a driver of development.This helps to partly explain the emergence of migration as a first-tier global issue that has seen United Nations Member States take a series of steps to strengthen global governance of migration,most notably since 2000(see chapter 11 of this report for discussion).It is unsurprising then that the International Organization for Migration(IOM)itself has grown in size,with a significant increase in membership over the last two decades up from 76 to its current membership of 173 States.Also of note in table 1 is the rise in international migrants globally(up around 85%)as well as of refugees(up around 80%)and internally displaced(up around 97%);all the while remaining very small proportions of the worlds population.27 Latoneroetal.,2019;Juskalian,2018.28 Seechapter5ofthisreportfordiscussionofhowsocialmediaplatformsaretransformingpublicdebatesonmigration.29 IOM,2000.10Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timesTable1.KeyfactsandfiguresfromtheWorldMigrationReports,2000and20202000report2020reportEstimatednumberofinternationalmigrants150million272millionEstimatedproportionofworldpopulationwhoaremigrants2.8%3.5%Estimatedproportionoffemaleinternationalmigrants47.5G.9%Estimatedproportionofinternationalmigrantswhoarechildren16.0.9%RegionwiththehighestproportionofinternationalmigrantsOceaniaOceaniaCountrywiththehighestproportionofinternationalmigrantsUnitedArabEmiratesUnitedArabEmiratesNumberofmigrantworkers-164millionGlobalinternationalremittances(USD)126billion689billionNumberofrefugees14million25.9millionNumberofinternallydisplacedpersons21million41.3millionNumberofstatelesspersons-3.9millionNumberofIOMMemberStates*76173NumberofIOMfieldoffices*120436 Sources:SeeIOM,2000andthepresenteditionofthereportforsources.Notes:Thedatesofthedataestimatesinthetablemaybedifferenttothereportpublishingdate(refertothereportsformoredetailondatesofestimates);refertochapter3ofthisreportforregionalbreakdowns;*indicatesthedatawasnotincludedinthereportbutiscurrentforthatyear; asat28October2019.The World Migration Report 2000s contribution to migration policy as well as migration studies was timely,and its success heralded the World Migration Report series.Since 2000,ten World Migration Reports have been produced by IOM(see text box below)and it has become the organizations flagship publication series.Its continued strong focus is on making a relevant,sound and evidence-based contribution that increases the understanding of migration by policymakers,practitioners,researchers and the general public.In late 2016,IOM made the decision to refine the World Migration Report series in order to ensure it was able to maximize its contribution to fact-based knowledge on migration globally.Each edition of the series now has two parts comprising:Part I:Key information on migration and migrants(including migration-related statistics);Part II:Balanced,evidence-based analysis of complex and emerging migration issues.11WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020World Migration Report 2000World Migration Report 2003:Managing Migration Challenges and Responses for People on the MoveWorld Migration Report 2005:Costs and Benefits of International MigrationWorld Migration Report 2008:Managing Labour Mobility in the Evolving Global EconomyWorld Migration Report 2010:The Future of Migration:Building Capacities for ChangeWorld Migration Report 2011:Communicating Effectively about MigrationWorld Migration Report 2013:Migrant Well-Being and DevelopmentWorld Migration Report 2015:Migrants and Cities:New Partnerships to Manage MobilityWorld Migration Report 2018World Migration Report 2020The move away from single theme editions of the report series to this two-part structure was in recognition of the significant changes in migration research,analysis and publishing,as well as the different expectations and needs of readers.For those who want to find out about key migration facts and figures,Part I brings together the latest information and statistics so that readers are able to better understand migration trends,changing patterns and processes at the global and regional levels.But for those who may be working on(or studying)specific areas of migration policy or practice,deeper dives into the complexities are offered in Part II.Refinement of the series was also in recognition that,as the focus on,and complexity of,migration intensifies,reports limited to a single theme have the potential to understate or miss entirely the broader changes that are occurring in migration transformations globally.A further consideration of the revised series was its intended“value-add”.As an intergovernmental organization,and a new United Nations related organization,it is critical that IOM ensures the World Migration Report serves the public in providing information and analysis that is relevant,accessible,sound,accurate and balanced.The need to avoid duplication or significant overlap is a genuine one,especially in light of newer contributions on migration governance(such as the Migration Governance Indicators).In this way,the World Migration Report series was re-framed to offer strategic analysis of complex and emerging issues facing migration policymakers,rather than describe or assess current policy and governance on migration.The series complements rather than duplicates other work.Evidence indicates that the revised series has been successful in achieving its intended aims,with positive responses from readers,including Member States,migration academics and general readers.The significant,sustained increase in downloads during 2018 and(to date)2019 of the World Migration Report 2018 over previous editions is another encouraging indicator.30 30 Figure6inchapter4ofthisreportprovidesdownloadstatisticsfortheWorldMigrationReports2018and2015.12Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timesWorld Migration Report 2020 This edition,heralding the twentieth anniversary of the World Migration Report series,builds on the previous report,the 2018 edition,by providing updated migration statistics at the global and regional levels as well as descriptive analysis of complex migration issues.Part I,on“key data and information on migration and migrants”,includes separate chapters on global migration trends and patterns;regional dimensions and developments;and a discussion of recent contributions to migration research and analysis by academia and a wide range of different organizations,including IOM.These three chapters have been produced institutionally by IOM,drawing primarily on analyses by IOM experts,practitioners and officials around the world based on data from a wide range of relevant organizations.The seven chapters in Part II are authored by applied and academic researchers working on migration.They cover a range of“complex and emerging migration issues”including:migrants contributions to societies;migration,inclusion and social cohesion;migration and health;children and unsafe migration;migration and adaptation to environmental change;migrants caught in crises;and recent developments in global migration governance.While the choice of these topics is necessarily selective and subjective,all the chapters in Part II of this report are directly relevant to some of the most prominent and important debates about migration in the world today.Many of these topics lie at the heart of the conundrums that face policymakers as they seek to formulate effective,proportionate and constructive responses to complex public policy issues related to migration.Accordingly,the chapters aim to inform current and future policy deliberations and discussions by providing a clear identification of the key issues,a critical overview of relevant research and analysis,and a discussion of the implications for future research and policymaking.The chapters are not meant to be prescriptive,in the sense of advocating particular policy“solutions”especially as the immediate context is an important determinant of policy settings but informative and helpful to what can be highly contested debates.Part IChapter 2 provides an overview of global data and trends on international migrants(stocks)and international migration(flows).It also provides a discussion of particular migrant groups namely,migrant workers,refugees,asylum seekers,internally displaced persons and stateless persons as well as of remittances.In addition,the chapter refers to the existing body of IOM programmatic data,particularly on missing migrants,assisted voluntary returns and reintegration,resettlement,displacement tracking and human trafficking.While these data are generally not global or representative,they can provide insights into changes that have occurred in relevant IOM programming and operations globally.13WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Following the global overview,chapter 3 provides a discussion of key regional dimensions of,and developments in,migration.The discussion focuses on six world regions as identified by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs:Africa,Asia,Europe,Latin America and the Caribbean,Northern America,and Oceania.For each of these regions,the analysis includes:i)an overview and brief discussion of key population-related statistics;and ii)succinct descriptions of“key features and developments”in migration in the region,based on a wide range of data,information and analyses,including from international organizations,researchers and analysts.To account for the diversity of migration patterns,trends and issues within each of the six regions,descriptive narratives of“key features and recent developments”are presented at the subregional level.There is a substantial amount of research and analysis on migration that is being undertaken and published by a range of actors such as academics,governments,intergovernmental organizations and think tanks.Chapter 4 provides a selective overview of such contributions,updating the chapter on the topic as it first appeared in the World Migration Report 2018.The overview focuses on migration research outputs published by academia and intergovernmental organizations in 2017 and 2018,which saw a peak in output from intergovernmental organizations,some of which was produced to inform States and other actors during deliberations on the Global Compact for Migration(see chapter 11 of this report for discussion of the compact processes and outcome).Part IIThe lead chapter in Part II examines the historical and contemporary contributions of migrants to communities of destination as well as those back in their place of origin.With this perspective,it focuses on three central domains of migrants contributions:sociocultural,civic-political and economic.In the face of often negatively skewed discussions on migration and migrants,one can lose sight of the fact that migrants have made significant contributions in a multitude of ways.This“reality check”chapter 5 highlights an often overlooked but important topic,placing the analysis in the context of emerging impediments to the recognition of migrants contributions globally.The chapter concludes by outlining the implications for policy deliberations and for further research.Chapter 6 critically reviews the issue of inclusion of migrants in host societies where they adapt to new cultures,customs,social values and language.The chapter provides an overview of the historical development of the policy approaches and terminology related to the topic.It discusses the roles of different stakeholders in optimizing the inclusion of migrants,as well as the importance of policy settings that are directly and indirectly related to inclusion.The chapter concludes with a discussion on the implication for policy responses.Health and migration is often only thought about in crisis terms,but there is much more to the connections between the two.Chapter 7 provides an overview analysis of key issues related to health and migration,including in terms of benefits,vulnerabilities and resilience.The chapter then examines health systems responses and prevailing approaches,as well as gaps in the governance of migration and health.Lessons from good-practice guidelines and the global agendas in migration and health are provided.Chapter 8 deals with child migration that does not conform to the traditional pattern of the migrant child accompanying or following the family in a safe environment,but rather migration that is unsafe,for example,occurring through irregular pathways without family.Following an expository approach,the chapter elaborates different types of child migration,their drivers,and issues related to the data on child migration.It discusses 14Report overview:Providing perspective on migration and mobility in increasingly uncertain timeskey protection challenges affecting child migrants and addresses the current issues and the evolving policies to handle them.The chapter explores the main emerging challenges confronting child migrants and concludes by reflecting on policy and research priorities.Providing an overview of human mobility and adaptation to cope with environmental and climate change,chapter 9 explores empirical research from around the world.Diverse examples of adaptive behaviour are presented from different ecological zones particularly at risk under climate change,namely,mountainous,dryland and coastal areas,as well as cities.The examples address a variety of strategies that promote one or several adaptive forms of migration.The chapter also provides a summary of the international policy frameworks on responses to the mobility aspects of environmental and climate change.The chapter concludes with focused recommendations for research,policy and practice.Chapter 10 deals with crises that migrants are caught up in.Presenting examples of such crises like floods,hurricanes,conflicts,and political and economic crisis,it examines current emergency assistance and urgent protection responses.The chapter provides an overview of the local,national and international responses to such needs faced by different types of migrants and their effectiveness.By drawing on the Migrants in Countries in Crisis Initiative,it examines the varying contexts,responses,gaps,and lessons learned in crisis preparedness and post-crisis recovery.The chapter provides an overview of existing data on migrants facing risk and situations of vulnerability in various countries and assesses the gaps.It concludes with policy and practice implications of responses.As the title spells out,chapter 11 provides an update on the migration governance chapter in the World Migration Report 2018,documenting key developments in global migration governance in the two years since the last report.The chapter provides a descriptive analysis of the development and adoption of the two global compacts,a brief analysis of their contents and the areas of convergence and divergence,an assessment of how they affect global migration governance framework,and the future implications as well as the challenges for implementation.The chapter discusses States commitments to implement and review follow-up and progress of the compacts,and summarizes changes in institutional architecture to support the Global Compact for Migration.The chapter also considers longer-term issues and implications for the future.Overall,this world migration report has been produced to help deepen our collective understanding of the various manifestations and complexities of migration in the face of growing uncertainties.We hope that all readers are able to learn something new from this edition,as well as to draw on its contents as they undertake their work,study or other activities.PART IDATA AND INFORMATION ON MIGRATION AND MIGRANTS19WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 20202MIGRATION AND MIGRANTS:A GLOBAL OVERVIEWIntroductionIn most discussions on migration,the starting point is usually numbers.Understanding changes in scale,emerging trends and shifting demographics related to global social and economic transformations,such as migration,help us make sense of the changing world we live in and plan for the future.The current global estimate is that there were around 272 million international migrants in the world in 2019,which equates to 3.5 per cent of the global population.1 A first important point to note is that this is a very small minority of the worlds population,meaning that staying within ones country of birth overwhelmingly remains the norm.The great majority of people do not migrate across borders;much larger numbers migrate within countries(an estimated 740 million internal migrants in 2009).2 That said,the increase in international migrants has been evident over time both numerically and proportionally and at a slightly faster rate than previously anticipated.3The overwhelming majority of people migrate internationally for reasons related to work,family and study involving migration processes that largely occur without fundamentally challenging either migrants or the countries they enter.In contrast,other people leave their homes and countries for a range of compelling and sometimes tragic reasons,such as conflict,persecution and disaster.While those who have been displaced,such as refugees and internally displaced persons(IDPs),comprise a relatively small percentage of all migrants,they are often the most in need of assistance and support.This chapter,with its focus on key global migration data and trends,seeks to assist migration policymakers,practitioners and researchers in making better sense of the bigger picture of migration,by providing an overview of information on migration and migrants.The chapter draws upon current statistical sources compiled by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs(UN DESA),the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD),the International Labour Organization(ILO),the World Bank,the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR),the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre(IDMC)and the International Organization for Migration(IOM).4 The chapter provides an overview of global data and trends on international migrants(stocks)and international migration(flows).It also provides a discussion of particular migrant groups namely,migrant workers,refugees,asylum seekers,IDPs and missing migrants as well as of stateless persons and remittances.The chapter also refers to the growing body of programmatic IOM data,particularly on assisted voluntary returns and reintegration,resettlement,displacement tracking and victims of human trafficking.While these 1UNDESA,2019a.2UNDP,2009.3See,forexample,IOMsWorld Migration Report 2003(IOM,2003),whichdrewuponUnitedNationspopulationdata(UNDESA,2002)andmigrationdata(IOM,2000).4Inkeepingwithinthescopeofthisreport,statisticsutilizedinthischapterwerecurrentasat30June2019,exceptforinternationalmigrantstockdatawhichwereincorporatedintothechapterfollowingthereleaseofthe2019revisionbyUNDESAon17September2019.20Migration and migrants:A global overviewdata are generally not global or representative,they can provide insights into changes that have occurred in relevant programming and operations globally.As the United Nations migration agency,with activities relevant to all the themes discussed in this chapter,IOM data have the capacity to provide further insights on migration and its various dynamics,including the diverse needs of migrants.This chapter highlights some of the challenges associated with data collection and definitions that make a comprehensive analysis of migration trends at the global level difficult.5 This also remains an issue for many States attempting to analyse migration trends within their own countries or regions,as reflected in the Global Compact for Safe,Orderly and Regular Migration,with its emphasis on data collection for evidence-based policy(Objective 1 of the Global Compact see discussion in chapter 11 of this report).Ongoing efforts to collect and improve migration statistics have led to an expansion in available data;however,the need for further technical capacity is an obstacle that is yet to be overcome as the international community works to develop a more comprehensive global picture of key aspects of migration.Similarly,defining migration and migrants is complex,as discussed in the text box below.Defining migration,migrant and other key termsOutsideofgeneraldefinitionsofmigrationandmigrant,suchasthosefoundindictionaries,thereexistvariousspecificdefinitionsofkeymigration-relatedterms,includinginlegal,administrative,researchandstatisticalspheres.aThereisnouniversallyagreeddefinitionofmigrationormigrant,however,severaldefinitionsarewidelyacceptedandhavebeendevelopedindifferentsettings,suchasthosesetoutinUNDESAs1998Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration.b Technicaldefinitions,conceptsandcategoriesofmigrantsandmigrationarenecessarilyinformedbygeographic,legal,political,methodological,temporalandotherfactors.Forexample,therearenumerouswaysinwhichmigrationeventscanbedefined,includinginrelationtoplaceofbirth,citizenship,placeofresidenceanddurationofstay.cThisisimportantwhenitcomestoquantifyingandanalysingtheeffectsofmigrationandmigrants(howeverdefined).Weencouragereaderstorefertoprimarysourcescitedinthechapterforinformationonspecificdefinitionsandcategorizationsunderlyingthedata.ReadersmayalsofindtheIOMGlossary on Migration(2019edition)tobeausefulreference.d a See,forexample,PoulainandPerrin,2001.b UNDESA,1998.c See,forexample,deBeeretal.,2010.d IOM,2019b.5Ingeneral,explanatorynotes,caveats,limitationsandmethodologiesonspecificsourcesofdatacanbeextensive,andarethereforenotincludedinthischapter.However,sourceshavebeenclearlyidentifiedsothatreaderscanrefertothem.21WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020International migrants:numbers and trendsUN DESA produces estimates of the number of international migrants globally.The following discussion draws on its estimates,which are based on data provided by States.6 The United Nations Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration defines an“international migrant”as any person who has changed his or her country of usual residence,distinguishing between“short-term migrants”(those who have changed their countries of usual residence for at least three months,but less than one year)and“long-term migrants”(those who have done so for at least one year).However,not all countries use this definition in practice.7 Some countries use different criteria to identify international migrants by,for example,applying different minimum durations of residence.Differences in concepts and definitions,as well as data collection methodologies between countries,hinder full comparability of national statistics on international migrants.Overall,the estimated number of international migrants has increased over the past five decades.The total estimated 272 million people living in a country other than their countries of birth in 2019 was 119 million more than in 1990(when it was 153 million),and over three times the estimated number in 1970(84 million;see table 1).While the proportion of international migrants globally has also increased over this period,it is evident that the vast majority of people continue to live in the countries in which they were born.Table1.Internationalmigrants,19702019YearNumber of migrantsMigrants as a%of the worlds population197084,460,1252.37590,368,0102.280101,983,1492.385113,206,6912.390153,011,4732.995161,316,8952.8 00173,588,4412.8 05191,615,5742.9 10220,781,9093.2 15248,861,2963.4 19271,642,1053.5%Source:UNDESA,2008,2019a,2019b.Note:Thenumberofentities(suchasStates,territoriesandadministrativeregions)forwhichdataweremadeavailableinthe2019UNDESARevision of International Migrant Stock was232.In1970,thenumberofentitieswas135.In 2019,most international migrants(around 74%)were of working age(20 to 64 years of age),with a slight decrease in migrants younger than 20 years old from 2000 to 2019(from 16.4%to 14%),and a constant share(around 12%)of international migrants 65 years of age and older since 2000.6DataarealsoprovidedtoUNDESAbyterritoriesandadministrativeunits.ForasummaryonUNDESAstockdatasources,methodologyandcaveats,pleaseseeUNDESA,2019b.7UNDESA,1998.22Migration and migrants:A global overviewSnapshot of international migrantsTheinternationalmigrantpopulationgloballyhasincreasedinsizebutremained relativelystableasaproportionoftheworldspopulation272Million258Million249Million221Million192Million174Million1995200020052010201520192.8%2.9%3.2%3.4%3.4%3.5%2.7%3.6%4.8%5.5%7.5%8.8.0.0.2.1%7.1%4.3%3.4%3.3%2.8%3.4%4.3%5.3%5.6%7.2%8.2%9.2.1.4%9.6%6.9%4.4%3.5%3.3%2.8p74656960645559505445494044353930242529202415191014590452%of international migrants are male,48%are femaleMost international migrants(74%)are of working age(2064 years)*Age groups above 75 years were omitted(male 4%,female 6%).23WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020TheproportionofinternationalmigrantsvariessignificantlyaroundtheworldCCanada 21.3%Sweden 20.0%Qatar 78.7%Singapore 37.1%South Africa 7.2%Note:Thismapisforillustrationpurposesonly.TheboundariesandnamesshownandthedesignationsusedonthismapdonotimplyofficialendorsementoracceptancebytheInternationalOrganizationforMigration.272millioninternationalmigrantsin2019outofaglobalpopulationof7.7billion:1inevery30peopleNote:InfographicsbasedonUNDESA,2019aandUNDESA,2019c.24Migration and migrants:A global overviewIn 2019,Europe and Asia each hosted around 82 million and 84 million international migrants,respectively comprising 61 per cent of the total global international migrant stock combined(see figure 1).These regions were followed by North America,with almost 59 million international migrants in 2019 or 22 per cent of the global migrant stock,Africa at 10 per cent,Latin America and the Caribbean at 4 per cent,and Oceania at 3 per cent.When compared with the size of the population in each region,shares of international migrants in 2019 were highest in Oceania,North America and Europe,where international migrants represented,respectively,21 per cent,16 per cent and 11 per cent of the total population.8 In comparison,the share of international migrants is relatively small in Asia and Africa(1.8%and 2%,respectively)and Latin America and the Caribbean(1.8%).However,Asia experienced the most remarkable growth from 2000 to 2019,at 69 per cent(around 34 million people in absolute terms).9 Europe experienced the second largest growth during this period,with an increase of 25 million international migrants,followed by an increase of 18 million international migrants in North America and 11 million in Africa.10Figure1.Internationalmigrants,bymajorregionofresidence,2005to2019(millions)0102030405060708090OceaniaNorthern AmericaLatin America and the CaribbeanEuropeAsiaAfrica2019201520102005Source:UNDESA,2019a.Datasetsavailableatwww.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/estimates2/estimates19.asp(accessed18September2019).Note:CategorizationbasedonUNDESAgeographicregions(seechapter3,appendixAfordetails),notimplyingofficialendorsementoracceptancebyIOM.The increase in international migration in some regions over time has had an impact on population change.Figure 2 shows the proportional population change for each of the worlds six regions from 2009 to 2019.While Europe has traditionally been one of the major destination regions for international migrants,it has had the slowest rate of proportional population change over this period,at slightly over 1 per cent.However,the rate would arguably be much lower without international migrants who have mitigated decreasing populations 8UNDESA,2019a.9Ibid.10 Ibid.25WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020in some European countries due,for example,to declining birth rates.11 By comparison,Africa underwent the most significant change,with its population growing by nearly 30 per cent over this period,due to high fertility rates and increasing lifespans.12 This growth has nevertheless been softened by emigration from Africa to other regions(namely Europe and Asia see chapter 3 of this report for discussion).Figure2.Proportionalpopulationchangebyregion,2009201902468101214EuropeNorthern AmericaAsiaLatin America and the CaribbeanOceaniaAfricaPer cent change 20092014Per cent change 20142019Source:UNDESA,2019c.Note:CategorizationbasedonUNDESAgeographicregions(seechapter3,appendixAfordetails),notimplyingofficialendorsementoracceptancebyIOM.While population growth over the decade may be most pronounced for Africa,in 2019 more than half the worlds total population resided in just one region:Asia(4.6 billion people).From 2009 to 2019,the population in Asia grew by nearly 440 million(from 4.16 billion to 4.6 billion),compared with just under 300 million in Africa(from 1.01 billion to 1.31 billion).13 Five of the worlds top 10 most populous countries are in Asia(China,India,Indonesia,Pakistan and Bangladesh).14The United States of America has been the main country of destination for international migrants since 1970.15 Since then,the number of foreign-born people residing in the country has more than quadrupled from less than 12 million in 1970,to close to 51 million in 2019.Germany,the second top destination for migrants,has also observed an increase over the years,from 8.9 million in 2000 to 13.1 million in 2019.A list of the top 20 destination countries of international migrants is provided in the left column of figure 3.11 UNDESA,2019c.Seechapter3ofthisreport(figure14)showingcountrieswiththelargestproportionalpopulationchangeinEurope.12 UNDESA,2019c.Seechapter3ofthisreport(figure2)showingcountrieswiththelargestproportionalpopulationchangeinAfrica.13 UNDESA,2019c.14 Ibid.15 UNDESA,2008,2019a.26Migration and migrants:A global overviewThe list of largest migrant origin countries and territories is shown on the right in figure 3.More than 40 per cent of all international migrants worldwide in 2019(112 million)were born in Asia,16 primarily originating from India(the largest country of origin),China,and South Asian countries such as Bangladesh,Pakistan and Afghanistan.Mexico was the second largest country of origin,and the Russian Federation was fourth.Several other European countries have sizable populations of emigrants,including Ukraine,Poland,the United Kingdom and Germany.Figure3.Top20destinations(left)andorigins(right)ofinternationalmigrantsin2019(millions)05101520TurkeyEgyptRomaniaMyanmarPalestinian TerritoriesKazakhstanGermanyUnited KingdomPolandIndonesiaAfghanistanPhilippinesUkrainePakistanBangladeshSyrian Arab RepublicRussian FederationChinaMexicoIndiaMigrants Abroad0204060PakistanJordanMalaysiaThailandKazakhstanSouth AfricaUkraineIndiaTurkeySpainItalyAustraliaCanadaFranceUnited Arab EmiratesUnited KingdomRussian FederationSaudi ArabiaGermanyUnited States of AmericaResident MigrantsSource:UNDESA,2019a(accessed18September2019).In regard to the distribution of international migrants by countries income group,17 nearly two thirds of international migrants resided in high-income countries in 2019 around 176 million.18 This compares with 82 million foreign-born who resided in middle-income countries(about one third of the total migrant stock)and 13 million in low-income countries in the same year.Income levels of destination countries for migrant workers are further discussed in the section on migrant workers below.16 UNDESA,2019a.17 PerWorldBankcountryincomegroupclassifications,inWorldBankCountryandLendingGroups(WorldBank,n.d.a).18 UNDESA,2017a.27WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020While international migrants may tend to gravitate toward high-income countries,their origins globally can be diverse.Some origin countries have high proportions of their nationals living abroad for economic,political,security,trade or cultural reasons that may be contemporary or historical in nature.For example,the Syrian Arab Republic has a higher rate of emigration than most other countries due to displacement caused by long-term conflict(see discussion below on refugees for more detail).Figure 4 highlights countries with high proportions of emigrants in 2019.Importantly,the emigration proportion of a country represents an accumulation of migration(and displacement)over time,sometimes many decades.Of note is the geographic diversity of the countries in figure 4(countries from all regions except Northern America are included)as well as the high number of countries from Latin America and the Caribbean(10 of the 20 countries).Figure4.Top20countriesofemigrationin2019(proportion)10 0Pp%Proportion of combined population who are emigrantsSaint Kitts and NevisDominicaSurinameTongaGrenadaGuyanaSamoaAntigua and BarbudaSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesBosnia and HerzegovinaSyrian Arab RepublicAlbaniaBarbadosJamaicaSeychellesSaint LuciaCabo VerdeArmeniaNorth MacedoniaPortugalSource:UNDESA,2019a.Notes:ThepopulationsizeusedtocalculatethepercentageofemigrantsisbasedontheUNDESAresidentpopulationofthecountry,whichincludesforeign-born,andUNDESAinternationalmigrantsoriginallyfromthatcountry.Onlycountrieswithacombinedpopulationofmorethan100,000residentsandemigrantswereincludedintheanalysis.28Migration and migrants:A global overviewUN DESA estimates of foreign-born populations do not reflect immigration status or policy categories(such as students,highly skilled migrants,or refugees).Capturing such attributes is inherently difficult for several key reasons.First,a persons immigration status can be fluid and change quickly,arising from circumstances and legal/policy settings.For example,many international migrants who may be described as undocumented”or“irregular”enter countries on valid visas and then stay in contravention of one or more visa conditions.In fact,there are many paths to irregularity,such as crossing borders without authorization,unlawfully overstaying a visa period,working in contravention of visa conditions,being born into irregularity,or remaining after a negative decision on an asylum application has been made.19 Second,countries have different immigration policy settings and different ways of collecting data on migrants,which makes it difficult to establish a harmonized approach to capturing irregular migrant stocks globally.The pace of change in the migration policy arena also poses an extra dimension of complexity,as people may slip into and out of“irregularity”.Notably,there have been very few global estimates of the number of irregular migrants because of this complexity.However,this has not prevented some organizations from coming up with inflated and incorrect global estimatessee text box below on“what not to do”.What not to do:estimating the global population of irregular migrantsInanAugust2019reportonirregularmigration,theauthorscomeupwithaglobalestimateofthenumberofirregularmigrantsthatisbasedonalackofunderstandingofmigrationanddisplacementpolicy,practiceandnormativesettings.aInarrivingatanerroneousfigureof106.9millionpeople,theauthorsincludegroupsofpeoplewhowouldnotbeconsideredirregular,suchasinternallydisplacedpersons,statelesspersons,andVenezuelanmigrants,includingrefugeesandasylumseekers.bTheimportantlessonsinthisexampleinclude:thatcategoriesofmigrants(evenwhileoverlappingattimes)andlimitationsondefinitionsmustbewellunderstoodbeforeanalysiscommences;ensuringqualifiedandexperiencedanalystswithanunderstandingofthetopicleadsuchwork;seekingtheadviceandfeedbackofknowledgeablespecialistsinthefieldpriortopublication(commonlyreferredtoas“peerreview”).a CSIS,2019:56.b ManyVenezuelanswereauthorizedtocrossinternationalbordersbyreceivingcountriesfollowingtheeconomicandpoliticalcrisiscausingdisplacement,andhavebeenofferedsomeformofstatusbythereceivingcountry,eveniftemporaryinnature.Third,as noted in the text box earlier on the chapter on“defining migration,migrant and other key terms”,there necessarily exist different definitions,depending on the circumstances in which they are applied.In some legal/policy situations,as well as in general discussions,for example,a“migrant”can include a person who has never migrated.See the discussion of the common problem of conflating“migration”and“migrant”in the text box below.19 Gordonetal.,2009.29WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Conflating“migration”and“migrant”Inageneralsense,migrationistheprocessofmovingfromoneplacetoanother.Tomigrateistomove,whetherfromaruralareatoacity,fromonedistrictorprovinceinagivencountrytoanotherinthatsamecountry,orfromonecountrytoanewcountry.Itinvolvesaction.Incontrast,amigrantisapersondescribedassuchforoneormorereasons,dependingonthecontext(seethetextboxon“Definingmigration,migrantandotherkeyterms”earlieronthechapter).Whileinmanycases,“migrants”doundertakesomeformofmigration,thisisnotalwaysthecase.Insomesituations,peoplewhohaveneverundertakenmigrationmaybereferredtoasmigrantschildrenofpeoplebornoverseas,forexample,arecommonlycalledsecondorthird-generationmigrants.a Thismayevenextendtosituationsinvolvingstatelessness,wherebywholegroupsofpeoplearenotabletoaccesscitizenshipdespitebeingbornandraisedinacountry.bOntheotherhand,forexample,returningcitizenswhohaveundertakensignificantand/orlong-terminternationalmigrationaregenerallynotclassifiedas“migrants”uponoraftertheirarrivaltotheircountryofbirth,despitetheirmigrationjourneysandexperiences.ca See,forexample,Neto,1995;FertigandSchmidt,2001.b Kyaw,2017.c Skeldon,2018.International migration flows:definitions,numbers and gapsWhile data on migrant stocks are widely available,data on global migration movements(flows)are much more limited.Available UN DESA estimates on global migrant stocks are extensive and global in scope;however,the database of migration flows only encompasses 45 countries.20 Capturing data on migration flows is extremely challenging for several reasons.First,while international migration flows are generally accepted as covering inflows and outflows into and from countries,there has been a greater focus on recording inflows.For example,while countries such as Australia and the United States count cross-border movements,many others only count entries and not departures.21 Additionally,migration flow data in some countries are derived from administrative events related to immigration status(for example,issuance/renewal/withdrawal of a residence permit)and are thus used as a proxy for migration flows.Furthermore,migratory movements are often hard to separate from non-migratory travel,such as tourism or business.22 Tracking migratory movements also requires considerable resources,infrastructure and IT/knowledge systems.This poses particular challenges for developing countries,where the ability to collect,administer,analyse and report data on mobility,migration and other areas is often limited.Finally,many countries physical geographies pose tremendous challenges for collecting data on migration flows.Entry and border management,for example,is particularly challenging in some regions,because of archipelagic and isolated borders,and it is further complicated by traditions of informal migration for work.2320 Laczko,2017.21 Koser,2010.22 Skeldon,2018.23 GallagherandMcAuliffe,2016.30Migration and migrants:A global overviewIOMs Global Migration Data Portal TheGlobalMigrationDataPortalwaslaunchedinDecember2017asaone-stopaccesspointfortimely,comprehensivemigrationstatisticsandreliableinformationaboutmigrationdataglobally.Thesiteisdesignedtopulltogether,inoneplace,keyglobaldatasourcesonmigrationfromacrossdifferentorganizations,agenciesandreports.Theportalservesusersinthefieldofmigrationbymakinginternationalmigrationdatamoreaccessibleandvisible,andeasiertounderstand.The world map features more than 70 migration data indicators from more than 20 differentinternationaldatasources,brokendownbycountry,region,subregionandIOMregion.Mostdatadisplayedarepubliclyavailableandprovidedbynumerousinternationalagencies.MigrationdataontheportalcanbeaccessedforallUnitedNationscountriesandarecomplementedbycontextualinformation,including demographic and employment data.Key additional resources,includingwritten reports and alternative data sources,are made available for all countries,regions andsubregions,whereavailable.AregionalsectionprovidesregionalprofilepagescoveringmigrationdataandavailablesourceswithindifferentUnitedNationsregions.Inthethematicsection,theportaloffersreviewsofavailabledatainvariousfieldsofmigration,providesexplanationsofconceptsanddefinitions,anddescribeskeystrengthsandweaknessesoftheavailabledatasources.Thethematicpagesreviewthedataforaround30topicsofmigration.Theportalalsofeaturesacollectionofmorethan100handbooksandguidancereportsonhowtomeasuremigrationandcollectdatainvariousfields.Numerousblogsdiscussingrecentdataandinnovationsauthoredbyleadingexpertsinthefieldofmigration,andvideointerviewswithleadingdataexpertsfromaroundtheworld,arealsoincludedontheportal.Theportalalsoincludesmigrationgovernancecountryprofilesandadedicatedsectionondataonmigrationgovernance.AspecificsectionshowshowdatacansupportUnitedNationsMemberStatesinachievingthemigration-relevantSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandinimplementingtheGlobalCompactforSafe,OrderlyandRegularMigration.TheportalisavailableinEnglish,andtranslationsofkeysectionsareavailableinFrench,SpanishandGerman.Formoreinformationsee:http:/migrationdataportal.org.31WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Migration flows There are currently two main international datasets on international migration flows,both of which are derived from national statistics:UN DESAs International Migration Flows dataset and OECDs International Migration Database.Since 2005,UN DESA has compiled data on the flows of international migrants to and from selected countries,based on nationally available statistics.At the time of writing(August 2019),there had been no update to the UN DESA flows dataset,with the most current being the 2015 version.The 2015 migration flows dataset comprises data from 45 countries(only 43 on emigration flows),up from 29 countries in 2008 and 15 countries in 2005.24 The OECD data on migration flows have been collected since 2000,which allows for limited trend analysis,as shown in figure 5(though data are not standardized,as explained in the note under the figure).25 The estimates suggest that permanent migration inflows to OECD countries increased from 3.85 million in 2000 to 7.06 million in 2016,with a temporary lull occurring around the time of the global financial crisis(figure 5).Germany remained the main OECD destination country in 2016,with over 1.7 million new international migrants(more than double the levels registered in 2000,but with a decrease compared with more than 2 million in 2015)arriving that year,followed by the United States(nearly 1.2 million)and the United Kingdom(about 450,000 new migrants).26Figure5.InflowsofforeignnationalsintoOECDcountries,permanentmigration,20002016(millions)01234567820162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003200220012000millionsSource:OECD,n.d.a.Notes:DataarenotstandardizedandthereforedifferfromstatisticsonpermanentmigrationinflowsintoselectedcountriescontainedinOECDsInternational Migration Outlook 2018(OECD,2018).The35countriestypicallyincludedinOECDstatisticsarethefollowing:Australia,Austria,Belgium,Canada,Chile,Czechia,Denmark,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Iceland,Ireland,Israel,Italy,Japan,RepublicofKorea,Latvia,Luxembourg,Mexico,theNetherlands,NewZealand,Norway,Poland,Portugal,Slovakia,Slovenia,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Turkey,theUnitedKingdomandtheUnitedStates.Insomeyears,dataforparticularcountriesarenotmadeavailable:dataweremadeavailablefor31countriesin2000and33countriesin2016.Notably,dataforGreecehavenotbeenreportedsince2012anddataforTurkeyhavenotbeenreportedsince2010.24 ForUNDESAmigrantflowdata,aswellasforthespecificcountriesincluded,pleaseseeUNDESA,2015.25 ThissubsectionisbasedondatafromtheOECDInternationalMigrationDatabase.ForadditionaldataonmigrantflowsandothermigrantdatainOECDcountries,pleaseseeOECD,n.d.a.26 ThesearethetopOECDcountriesforpermanentinflowsofforeignnationalsforwhichdataweremadeavailablein2017.32Migration and migrants:A global overviewMigrant fatalities and IOMs Missing Migrants ProjectInthewakeofthetragiceventsofOctober2013,inwhichanestimated368migrantsdiedinthesinkingoftwoboatsneartheItalianislandofLampedusa,IOMbegancollectingandcompilinginformationonmigrantswhoperishorgomissingonmigratoryroutesworldwide,withinitsMissingMigrantsProject(MMP).InformationonmigrantfatalitiesiscollecteddailyandmadeavailableontheMissingMigrantsProjectsonlinedatabase,managedbyIOMsGlobalMigrationDataAnalysisCentre.MMPalsoprovidesanalysisofthedataandissuesrelatedtodeathsduringmigration,inbriefingsandits“FatalJourneys”reports(volume4publishedin2019).Datasourcesincludeofficialrecordsofcoastguardsandmedicalexaminers,mediastories,reportsfromnon-governmentalorganizationsandUnitedNationsagencies,andinterviewswithmigrants.Datacollectionchallengesaresignificant.Forinstance,thevastmajorityofrecordeddeathsareofpeopletravellingviaclandestineroutes,whichareoftenatseaorinremoteareas(chosenwiththeaimofevadingdetection),meaningremainsarenotfound.Fewofficialsourcescollectandmakedataonmigrantdeathspubliclyavailable.Relyingontestimoniesoffellowmigrantsandmediasourcescanbeproblematic,duetoinaccuraciesandincompletecoverage.In the five years(20142018)of systematically recording deaths during migration,MMP hasdocumentedover30,900women,menandchildrenwholosttheirliveswhiletryingtoreachothercountries.Duringthattime,theMediterraneanSeahasseenthehighestnumberofdeaths,claimingthelivesofatleast17,919people,64percentofwhosebodieshavenotbeenrecoveredfromthesea.In2018,theMediterraneancontinuedtobetheplacewiththehighestknownnumberofdeathsduringmigration,butcomparedwiththepreviousfouryears,therewasamuchhigherproportionwhodiedonthe“WesternMediterraneanroute”.Atotalof813deathswererecordedonthisseacrossingfromthecoastofNorthernAfricatoSpainin2018,comparedwith272in2017.Nearly570deathsduringmigrationwererecordedinNorthAfricain2018,mostlyduetotheharshnaturalenvironment,violenceandabuse,dangeroustransportationconditions,andsicknessandstarvation.DespitetheongoingwarandhumanitariancrisisinYemen,in2018themigrationroutetothecountryfromtheHornofAfricaacrosstheRedSeaandtheGulfofAdencontinuedtobeinhighuse.In2018,156peopleareknowntohavedrownedinthiscrossing.InthecontextofthedisplacementofmillionsofpeoplefromtheBolivarianRepublicofVenezuela,42peoplefromthecountrylosttheirliveswhiletryingtomigrateelsewhereintheregionin2018.NodeathsofVenezuelanswererecordedbyMMPinthepreviousyear.Since2014,1,884deathshavebeenrecordedalongtheUnitedStatesMexicoborder,including434in2018.TodownloadtheMMPdata,seehttps:/missingmigrants.iom.int/downloads.Newdatasourcesareconstantlyaddedandeffortsareongoingtoimprovedatacollectionglobally.Foradiscussionofthechallengesofcollectingdataonmigrantdeaths,pleaseseehttp:/missingmigrants.iom.int/methodology.33WORLD MIGRATION REPORT 2020Migrant workersThe latest available estimates indicate that there were roughly 164 million migrant workers around the world in 2017,accounting for nearly two thirds(64%)of the(then)258 million global stock of international migrants.27 When compared with the global population of international migrants of working age regarded as 15 years of age or older(234 million)migrant workers account for 70 per cent.For a range of reasons,however,these global figures are likely to be underestimates.28 While earlier global estimates of migrant workers have been produced,ILO notes that these cannot be compared with 2017 figures,due to definitional differences and changes in methodology and data sources.In 2017,68 per cent of migrant workers were residing in high-income level countries an estimated 111 million people.An additional 47 million migrant workers(29%)were living in middle-income countries,and 5.6 million(3.4%)were in low-income countries.While we are unable to compare the numbers of migrant workers over time,it is useful to examine changes in proportional distribution.In 2017,for example,there was a noticeable change in destination country category;that is,from 2013 to 2017,high-income countries experienced a 7 percentage point drop in migrant workers(from 75%to 68%),while upper-middle-income countries observed a 7 percentage point increase(from 12%to 19%)(see figure 6).This apparent shift may be influenced by economic growth in middle-income countries and/or changes to labour immigrati
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通过 FINRA 和 SIPC 的成员 SDR Capital Markets, LLC 提供的投资银行业务和证券。 /4/2022VetlinkPROJonas Software、Constellation SoftwarePet Tech-10/31/2022Crum&Forster Pet Insurance GroupIndependent Pet Group、JAB Holding CompanyPet Care Services1,400.00-9/28/2022PawZ Dog BootsMonolith Brands GroupAnimal Health-9/20/2022CovetrusClayton、Dubilier&Rice、Ischyros 新York,TPG Pet Tech3.913.000.8x19.8x7-09-2022Ark NaturalsAlpine Investors,Antelope PetsAnimal Health-9/1/2022Home VetAEA Investors,AmeriVet Veterinary PartnersVeterinary Services-8/22/2022The Raw ConnectionHealthy Spot,Monogram Capital Partners,Venice BrandsRetailers : 如果您是寻找更多交易活动的企业主 如果您是寻找行业内其他交易活动的企业主，请致电我们的办公室 720.221.9220 在您的行业内，请致电我们的办公室 720.221.9220.3 3 3 1 12 42 7 4-10 20 30 40 50战略29%金融71%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5c-21Jan-22Feb -Mar 22 -April 22 - 五月22 - 6 月 22 日 - 7 月 22 日 - 8 月 22 日 - 9 月 22 日 - 9 月 22 日 - 10 月 22 日 - 11 月 22 日 - 12 月 22 日 - 22 宠物食品和零食零售商 耐用品 动物健康 标普 500 公司名称 符号 市值（以千美元计） 价格（ $) LTM Change YTD Change % YTD Highest。销售额增长百分比为 52 周最高。收入增长BITDA MarginTEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM SalesTEV/NTM EBITDANestlNESN31 9.1 21$1 1 6.04$5.7%(1 6.8%)81.5%8.4 %1 6.4%3.8x23.1 x1 8.6 x3。 5x1 6.4xColgate-PalmoliveCL65.807 78.79 1 2.2%(7.7%)92.0%3.9%1 9, 9%4.1x20.9x34.4x4.0x1 6.4xGeneral MillsGIS49,439 83.85 9.5$.4.9%4.1.6% 3.1x1 3.9 x1 7.5x3.0x1 5.2xThe J.M. Smucker Co. SJM1 6,898 1 58.46 1 5.3%1 6.7.7%6.3%1 6.8%2.6x1 5.7x29.7x2.5x1 2.4xFreshpetFRPT2.534 52.77 5.4% ) 44.47.7%-4.5%4.3xNMNM3.1xNMCetralCentral83,&& .9%(28.8%)70.1%-0.4%1 0.1%0.9x9 .4x1 3.4x1.0xNMSegment average8.6%(9.5%)80.3 0.5%3.2x16.6x22.7x2.8x15.1xSegment M edian7.6% ( 12.2%)86.8%5.2.6%3.5x15.7x18 .6x3.1x15.8x市场统计 LTM 运营统计倍数 NTM 倍数公司名称符号市值（以千美元计）价格（$）同比 LTM 变化最高 52-周 %.Revenue GrowthMarginEBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM SalesTEV/NTM EBITDA拖拉机交付 TSCO24,851$224.97$21.0%(5.7%)93.1%1 1.7%1 2.5%2.1 x1 7.0 x24.5x1.9x1 4.9xChewy5.3.CHWY1( ) %1 1.0 %0.6%1.6xNMNM1.4xNMPetco 动物用品WOOF2521 9.48(1 5.1%)(52.1%)41.7%4.3 %6.4% 0.9x1 4.3x28.7x0.9x9.4xPetzPETZ3547 1.1 9(36.9%)( 59 , 2%) 27.89.8 %1 6.0% 1.4x8.9 x 45.0 x 1.0 x 6.0 x 分部平均值 (2.6%) (38.5%) 55.8. 7% 8.9% 1.5 x 13.4 x 32.7 x 1.3 x 10.1 x 细分市场中位数 2.8%(44.6%)51.1.3%9.5%1.5x14 .3x28.7x1.2x9.4x市场统计数据 LTM 的倍数 NTM 的倍数 公司名称符号市值（以千美元计）价格（美元）LTM ChangeYTD Change% of 52 weeks Estimated Revenue Growth Margin EBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM- revenueTEV/NTM EBITDAChurch&Dwight CompanyCHD1 9,658$80.61$1 2.8%(21.4%)76.6 %5.3 0.6 %4.1 x1 8.1 x27.0 x3.9x1 6.6xThe Clorox CompanyCLX1 7 , CompanyCLX1 31 5 1 40.33 9.3%(1 9.5%)75.1%2.0%1 2.2 %2.9x23.7x42.9x2.8x1 8.2xSpectrum BrandsSPB2485 56.192 60 %(40.1%)58.4%1.8%3.5%1.7xNMNM1.7x1 6.1xCentral Garden&PetCENT1, 958 37.45 3.9%(28.8%)70.1%-0.4%1 0.1%0.9x9.4x1 3.4x1.0xNMOil Dri Corporation Of AmericaODC240 33.5%4 38.6% 2.5.9%NM7.2%0.7x1 0.4x22.5xNMNMDogness(International)Co .DOGZ38 0.98(1 6.2%)(88.3%)1 0.9%1 39.9%1 6.5%1.1 x6.8x9.8x0.5xNMSegment Mean17 .4 %(32.6%)64.2).7.0%1.9x13.7x23.1x2 .0 x17.0 xSegment Median11.1%(25.1%)72.6%2.0.2%1.4x10.4x22.5x1.7x16.6xMarket Statistics Business Statistics LTM倍数 NTM 倍数 公司名称 符号 市值（百万美元） 价格（$）LTM 变化 YTD 变化 52 周峰值收入增长率百分比 EBITDATEV/RevTEV/EBITDAPrice/EPSTEV/NTM RevenueTEV/NTM EBITDAMerck&Co.MRK281,302$1 1 0.95$28 ,8D.8.3%(1.4%) 36.6%5.1 x1 3.9x1 8.4 x5.2x1 2.3xZoetisZTS68.303 1 46.55(1.2%)(39.9% )59.3%6.7.3%9.1 x22.5x33.5x8.5x1 9.6 xIdexx LaboratoriesIDXX33,786 407.9%( 25.02%) 61.4%8.5.4% 1 0, 5x35.8x51.9x9.7x28.6xElanco Animal HealthELAN5795 1 2.22(1.5%)(56.9%)41.2%(4.2%)1 7.9 %2.5 x1 3.8xNM2.6x1 0.7xNeogenNEOG3291 1 5.23 9.0%(66.5%)31.9v.6%1 2.9%5.5x42.9x44.8x3.1 x1 1.7xVirbacVIRP2.052 243.03(7.4%)(49.4%)48.3%6.4%1 8.1% 1, 6x8.7x1 5.5x1.5x8.2xTrupanionTRUP1, 943 47.53(20.0%)(64.0%)35.2.0%(3.2%)2.1xNMNM1.6xNMVetoquinolVETO1.1 09 93.37 1 8.7%(37.5%)56.8%NM23 .0% 1.7x7.4x1 4.9x1.7x7.6xHeskaHSKA673 62.1 6(1 4.8 %)(65.9%)33.5%6.7%(1.2%)2.4xNMNM2 .2x1 9.2xPhibro Animal HealthPAHC543 1 3.41 0.9%(34.3%)60.5% 2.6%1 1.8%1.0 x8.5x1 1.7x1.0 x8.3xSwedencareSECARE466 2.94( 27.2%)(82.8 %)1 6.9).9%1 8.9%4.2x26.0 x56.8x3.3x1 3.1 xPetIQPETQ267 9.22 33.6%(59.4 %)36.3 %5.6%1.1% 0.7xNMNM0.7x6。 5 个细分市场的平均值 3.7% (45.8%) 48.3.1.1% 3.9 x 20.0 x 30.9 x 3.4 x 13.3 细分市场的中位数 (0.1%) (53.2%) 44.8% 6.7.0% 2.4 x 13.9 x 25.9 x 2.4 x 11.7 x M Market Statistics Business Statistics LTM Multiple NTM Multiple 51GTB%8AC6GA9BB% 9%9FRGIA567 %8%8%9%5QWUX9G96%8%6%7TGTU%0 0%Senior DebtSubdebtEquitySource:GF DataSource:GF DataNote:最新的GF数据来源是截至 2022 年 11 月。多个来源：PitchBook 财务数据和分析2019202120202022*$0.0M$100 .0B$200.0B$300.0B$400.0B$500.0B$600.0B1.3002.3003.3004.3005.3006.300202 Q320202 Q320202 Q320202 Q320202 关闭交易Q4Capitals 关闭。 1x5.9x6.1x6.6x6.9x6.8x7.0 x7.1x7.5x8.0 x8.3x8.8x9.3x8.6x9.0 x9.7x0.0 x2.0 x4.0 x6.0 x8.0 x10 。 0 x12.0 x2019202020212022*$10-25mm$25-50mm $50-100mm$100-250mm1.“西方水资源倡导者为拯救科罗拉多河而战”，纽约客，Rachel Monroe，2022 年 12 月 23 日 https :/In Ukraine Drives Global粮食危机”，世界粮食计划署，2022 年 6 月 24 日 https://www.wfp.org/publications/war-ukraine-drives-global-food-crisis3。“展望未来：宠物营养行业为 2023 年做准备”，食品加工Pets，Kimberlie Clyma，2023 年 1 月 3 日 https：/2022 年强大的宠物行业统计数据：市场趋势、事实和预测”，Zippa、Abby McCain，2022 年 11 月 9 日 https：/由于环境极其不卫生，停止销售食品”，狗粮顾问，2022 年 3 月 28 日 https:/食品召回：您的品牌在名单上吗？ P，Dave Baker，2022 年 12 月 8 日 https：/2023 年值得关注的 5 大宠物产品趋势，”宠物产品新闻，2022 年 12 月 20 日 https：/Carp Treats Good For Dogs，Environment，“PetfoodI，Tim Wall，咨询2023 年 12 月 11 日 https:/in 替代蛋白质正在宠物食品中生长，”PetfoodI，Lindsay Beaton，2022 年 12 月 1 日 https:/他们不会是唯一吃实验室培育肉的人。我们的宠物也会，”史密森尼杂志，Shelby Vittek 或 Modern Farmer，2021 年 4 月 22 日 https://https:/You Need to Know Dog Food made with crickets and Larvae，”宠物产品新闻，Lindsey Getz，2022 年 3 月 1 日https: /Alternative Feed Protein Market Size to Exceed $9B by 2032", Global Market Insights, Nov 4, 2022 https: /Agribusiness Raises $2.5M,"Pet Food Processing, Nicole Kerwin, Feb 11, 2022 https:/New Plant Will据报道每年生产 9,000 吨蟋蟀供人类和宠物食用，”加拿大制造业，2022 年 5 月 26 日 https：/2022 年及以后的行业趋势、增长和统计数据：释放您的电子商务宠物营销策略”，共同主题，Reilly Roberts ”，2022 年 6 月 11 日 https:/Revenues 2019 -2022|CHWY”，Macrotrends，https:/Nutrition Demand Fuels 超过 20 亿美元的设施投资，”Pet Food Processing，Nicole Kerwin，1 月 5 日。 2022 https:/Petcare 收购了 ORIJEN 和 ACANA 的制造商 Champion Petfoods，”Cision /美通社，2022 年 11 月 1 日 https:/ Petcare 收购了 Champion Petfoods，”PetFoodI，2022 年 11 月 11 日 https:/Inc.Buys out Pet食品公司 Nashville，Nomnomnow Inc.，报告 10 亿美元，Per Bloomberg，“Nashville Business Journal，Adam Sichko，2022 年 1 月 19 日 https:/Labs 收购 Rovers Wellness，”Pet Business，2022 年 11 月 9 日 https:/Nutrition 同意收购 F.L.Emmert 在新兴市场巩固地位，”Cision/美通社，2022 年 6 月 30 日 https:/2023 年 1 月 11 日 https:/2022 年最佳宠物产品，”宠物业务，2022 年 12 月 1 日 https:/Egg Prices Rise，本地早餐点感到财务压力”，KMGH TV Denver 7，Colette Bordelon，2023 年 1 月 11 日 https://
10人看过 2023-02-17 12页 5星
减速机行业深度：工业自动化中心轨道复苏来临，国产化加速，增量市场可期-230216(44页).pdf
请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 行行业业 研研 究究 行行业业深深度度研研究究报报告告 证券研究报告证券研究报告 机械机械 推荐推荐(维持维持）重点公司重点公司 来源：兴业证券经济与金融研究院 相关报告相关报告 分析师：分析师：石康 S1220517040001 分析师：分析师：郭亚男 S0190522120004 投资要点投资要点 长坡厚雪长坡厚雪千亿千亿赛道，短期需求赛道，短期需求有望有望反弹。反弹。减速机是工业自动化核心零部件，在原动机和工作机之间起着匹配转速和增大扭矩的作用。2021 年我国减速机市场整体规模为 1258 亿元，其中通用减速机市场约 500 亿元，专用减速机市场约 700 亿元。到 2026 年，我国减速机市场规模有望将达 1605 亿元，2021-2026 年年复合增速约 5%。长期看，长期看，我国减速机企业受益于人口老龄化带来的自动化需求、国产替代趋势以及新应用场景带来的增量市场。短期短期看看，2023 年宏观经济有望复苏，行业需求有望反弹。通用减速机：行业整合叠加国产替代，内资龙头份额提升。通用减速机：行业整合叠加国产替代，内资龙头份额提升。通用减速机用途多、宏观经济周期相关度高、行业格局分散，以 SEW、Flender 为代表的外资占据着国内高端市场，国茂股份、通力科技等内资龙头占据中端市场。近年来，随着终端用户对产品性能要求的提高，低端市场份额由 2011 年的 80%萎缩至 2019 年的 25%，中高端市场份额则扩大至 75%。内资龙头技术不断升级，逐渐开始国产替代步伐。在行业加速整合与国产替代趋势下，在行业加速整合与国产替代趋势下，三家三家内内资龙头份额由资龙头份额由 19 年的年的 7.1%提升至提升至 21 年年的的 10%左右左右。精密减速机：国产替代加速推进，应用场景逐步拓宽。精密减速机：国产替代加速推进，应用场景逐步拓宽。精密减速机下游主要应用是工业机器人，其中谐波减速机体积小、传动比高，主要应用于机器人小臂、腕部或手部，RV 减速机体积大、负载能力高，主要应用于基座、大臂、肩部。经测算，2021 年我国工业机器人用精密减速机市场规模约 45 亿元，2025 年有望达到近百亿，2021-2025 年间行业年均增速高达 20%以上。此前日本企业纳博特斯克、哈默纳科分别垄断 RV 减速机、谐波减速机市场。近年来绿的谐波技术、市场双突破，在国内自主品牌机器人用谐波减速机领域中基本实现对哈默纳科的替代。RV 减速机的技术与前期投资要求更高，目前纳博特斯克仍占主导，但双环传动、秦川机床等企业的 RV 板块已经在21 年实现盈亏平衡，RV 减速机国产替代有望加速推进。另一方面，数控机床、人形机器人、协作机器人等新应用场景不断涌现，带动行业持续扩容。减速齿轮减速齿轮&微型传动：新兴市场增量。微型传动：新兴市场增量。（1）减速齿轮：减速齿轮：汽车电动化趋势带来减速齿轮精度需求提升，同时双电机布局、两级减速器带来更多减速齿轮需求，我们测算 2021 年中国电动乘用车减速齿轮市场规模达 18.6 亿，2025年有望达到 71.5 亿元，2021-2025 年 CAGR 达 40%左右。（2）微型传动：微型传动：汽车电子、VR/AR 带来微型传动系统市场增量需求，经测算 2023-2025 年全球 VR/AR 领域微型传动系统累计市场空间将达到 78 亿。投资建议：投资建议：减速机是工业自动化核心零部件，市场容量达千亿元量级。自动化需求、新应用场景带来行业持续扩容，国内龙头企业近年来技术不断突破，国产替代、行业整合速度加快，也在不断向新应用场景、机电一体化等方向布局。短期看在防疫政策优化、地产政策放松、基建持续发力、消费场景复苏等因素推动下，宏观经济有望复苏，核心零部件相较终端装备的消费属性更强，赛道属性更优。建议关注建议关注国茂股份、绿的谐波、双环传动国茂股份、绿的谐波、双环传动（汽车组覆（汽车组覆盖）盖）、兆威机电、兆威机电、中大力德中大力德、通力科技、通力科技、宁波东力、宁波东力等等。风险提示风险提示：制造业复苏不及预期，新技术发展不及预期，产能扩张不及预期制造业复苏不及预期，新技术发展不及预期，产能扩张不及预期 title 减速机行业深度：减速机行业深度：工业自动化核心赛道，复苏将至、国产工业自动化核心赛道，复苏将至、国产化加速、增量市场可期化加速、增量市场可期 2023 年年 2 月月 16 日日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 目目 录录 1、减速机：工业自动化核心零部件，长坡厚雪千亿赛道.-5-1.1、减速机简介：机械传动基础件，分为通、专用两类.-5-1.2、减速机行业：国内千亿以上规模，下游应用广泛，市场竞争激烈.-7-2、通用减速机：行业整合叠加国产替代，内资龙头份额提升.-9-2.1、通用减速机：用途多、格局散，经济周期相关度高.-9-2.2、行业趋势：关注自动化、集中化、机电一体、国产替代四大趋势.-11-2.3、他山之石：国际通用减速机巨头发展路径各异.-15-2.4、国茂股份：国内通用减速机龙头，中端市场为基，向高端进军.-18-3、精密减速机：国产替代加速推进，应用场景逐步拓宽.-19-3.1、精密减速机：分为谐波、RV 两种，主要应用于工业机器人.-19-3.2、行业趋势：关注机器替人、国产化、人形机器人及非机器人应用.-22-3.3、他山之石：从日系双巨头看精密减速机发展路径.-28-3.4、绿的谐波：谐波减速器龙头，产能瓶颈即将解除，多元发展未来可期-31-4、减速齿轮&微型传动：新兴市场增量带动减速机行业繁荣.-34-4.1、新能源乘用车传动齿轮：高成长性的减速齿轮新兴应用场景.-34-4.2、微型传动系统：以注塑齿轮为基的运动控制、调节、传递系统.-37-4.3、双环传动：RV 与减速齿轮并举的精密机加工龙头.-39-4.4、兆威机电：国内微型传动领域领军企业.-41-5、投资建议及风险提示.-43-图目录图目录 图 1、减速机在原动机和工作机之间起到传递动力和匹配扭矩、转速的功能.-5-图 2、减速机主要分为通用减速机和专用减速机两大类.-6-图 3、减速机行业上下游情况.-7-图 4、2019 年中国减速机产品下游行业分布（按数量）（%）.-7-图 5、2020-2026 年全球减速机行业规模（亿美元）.-8-图 6、我国减速机行业规模（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-8-图 7、国内减速机市场竞争格局.-9-图 8、2021 年通用减速器市场规模占比（%）.-9-图 9、通用减速机市场规模（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-9-图 10、通用减速机下游应用场景繁多.-10-图 11、减速机产量与工业增加值和制造业固定资产投资具有较强相关性.-10-图 12、2019 年全球通用减速机行业市占率情况（%）.-10-图 13、我国工业自动化部件市场规模（亿元）增速（%，右轴）较快.-12-图 14、自动化立体库是减速机在工业自动化领域中的重要应用场景.-12-图 15、我国通用减速机龙头企业市占率提升（%）趋势明显.-13-图 16、集成了变频器的 SEW 减速电机.-14-图 17、中大力德的部分机电一体化产品.-15-图 18、SEW 产品系列覆盖面广泛.-15-图 19、弗兰德业务主要围绕减速机及联轴器展开.-15-图 20、SEW 在产品端采取了多样化的发展路径.-16-图 21、SEW MOVI-C 全自动化解决方案.-16-图 22、威能极的海上风电专用齿轮箱系列产品.-17-图 23、弗兰德的部分船用齿轮箱产品.-17-图 24、Santasalo 是国际上主要的减速机厂家之一.-17-nXhUoYvXkUcVaVdYoXfW7NaO8OsQqQmOnOiNrRmOkPmNoRaQmMxONZoOoPMYmRtO 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图 25、捷诺产品近年收入占比增幅明显（万元）.-19-图 26、国茂股份部分齿轮箱产品线.-19-图 27、国茂股份利润水平稳定在较高水平（%）.-19-图 28、国茂股份期间费用率整体处于良性区间（%）.-19-图 29、谐波减速器结构图.-20-图 30、谐波减速器工作原理示意图.-20-图 31、RV 减速机结构示意图.-20-图 32、哈默纳科减速机产品 2021 年各下游收入占比.-21-图 33、2020 年世界机器人减速器市场份额.-22-图 34、2021 年全球谐波减速机市场格局.-22-图 35、精密减速机常见应用场景.-22-图 36、谐波减速机国内市场格局逐渐松动.-25-图 37、哈默纳科产能均分布于日本国内.-25-图 38、纳博特斯克扩产节奏较为缓慢.-25-图 39、工业机器人自主品牌国内市占率预测.-26-图 40、RV 减速机有多种非机器人应用场景.-27-图 41、绿的谐波的四、五轴数控转台产品.-27-图 42、Optimus 机器人自由度关节分布.-28-图 43、2021 年哈默纳科谐波减速器收入拆分（%）.-28-图 44、2021 年纳博特斯克业务收入拆分（%）.-28-图 45、哈默纳科整体运动控制概念.-29-图 46、哈默纳克全球子公司及办事机构分布.-30-图 47、纳博特斯克全球 RV 减速机产能（万台）.-30-图 48、纳博特斯克是由两家公司合并而来.-31-图 49、绿的谐波营收、归母净利润（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-32-图 50、绿的谐波利润水平稳定在较高水平（%）.-32-图 51、绿的谐波谐波减速机年产量（万台）.-33-图 52、2021 年绿的谐波营业收入按下游应用分类（%）.-33-图 53、“三合一”电驱系统示意图.-34-图 54、电动汽车单级减速器示意图.-34-图 55、两挡减速器与单挡减速齿轮运行转速区别.-35-图 56、汽车电子领域中微型传动系统的使用场景十分多样.-38-图 57、单个 VR 眼镜一般配备两个对焦调节齿轮箱.-39-图 58、新一代 VR 头显体验感进一步优化.-39-图 59、双环传动历史沿革.-40-图 60、双环传动营收（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-40-图 61、双环传动归母净利润（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-40-图 62、双环传动基于机加工精密齿轮技术优势的同心圆战略.-41-图 63、兆威机电营收（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-42-图 64、兆威机电归母净利润（亿元）及增速（%，右轴）.-42-图 65、兆威机电产品涉及下游诸多应用场景.-42-图 66、兆威机电研发投入（万元）及费用率（%，右轴）处于较高水平.-43-表目录表目录 表 1、三种不同传动原理对应的减速机类型.-6-表 2、国内减速机市场竞争格局.-11-表 3、国产通用减速机产品和 SEW 对标产品技术参数对比.-13-表 4、国茂股份主要减速机产品分类.-18-表 5、RV 减速器和谐波减速器对比.-21-请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 表 6、中国工业机器人减速机市场规模测算.-23-表 7、世界工业机器人减速机市场规模测算.-24-表 8、海外各减速机企业对比.-29-表 9、绿的谐波主营业务分类.-31-表 10、绿的谐波与哈默纳科同级产品性能参数对比.-32-表 11、各应用场景齿轮精度需求.-35-表 12、齿轮制造技术不属于电驱系统核心技术.-36-表 13、中国新能源乘用车传动齿轮市场规模测算.-36-表 14、微型和传统传动系统对比.-37-表 15、AR/VR 头显对应微型传动系统市场空间（亿元）敏感性分析.-39-表 16、重点公司估值表.-43-请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 报告正文报告正文 1、减速机：、减速机：工业自动化核心零部件，长坡厚雪千亿赛道工业自动化核心零部件，长坡厚雪千亿赛道 1.1、减速机简介：机械传动基础件，分为通、专用两类、减速机简介：机械传动基础件，分为通、专用两类 减速机又名减速器，是机械设备中起到传动功能的基础部件。减速机又名减速器，是机械设备中起到传动功能的基础部件。机械设备一般由动力、传动与执行三大系统构成。通常执行系统是决定机械设备功能及使用方式的关键，所以每种机械设备对应的执行系统形式多样。而传动系统起到在动力源和执行系统之间传递和调节动力的功能，相比执行系统而言，传动部件具有更强的通用性，因此减速机下游的应用场景极其广泛，涵盖绝大部分的机械设备领域。减速机通常在原动机和工作机之间起着匹配转速和增大扭矩的作用。减速机通常在原动机和工作机之间起着匹配转速和增大扭矩的作用。基本的减速机通常由多个齿轮组成，利用齿轮的啮合改变原动机的转速、扭矩及承载能力，使其符合执行系统的要求。同时，部分减速机也可以用于实现精密运动控制。由于大多机械设备的工作机负载大、转速低，或者对精密度有一定要求，多数不宜用原动机直接驱动，因此，减速机通常在原动机和工作机之间起着匹配转速和增大扭矩的作用。减速机通常具有高、精、广三特性，高，即高单位体积承载能力、高可靠性、高耐用度；精，即零部件精度高，从而降低运行噪音和振动，对切削、磨削加工工艺技术要求高；广，即产品广泛适用于众多行业。图图 1、减速机在原动机和工作机之间起到传递动力和匹配扭矩、转速的功能、减速机在原动机和工作机之间起到传递动力和匹配扭矩、转速的功能 资料来源：通力科技招股书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 减速机减速机依照依照传动原理传动原理可分可分齿轮减速机、蜗轮蜗杆减速机与行星齿轮减速机。齿轮减速机、蜗轮蜗杆减速机与行星齿轮减速机。齿轮减速机箱体内结构相对紧凑，设计难度较低，是应用最为广泛的减速机形制；蜗轮蜗杆减速机采用两轴交错结构，在减速比较高的情况下具有反向自锁功能；而行星齿轮减速机在刚性、精度、扭矩等性能方面都具有优势，但整体结构却较为复杂。这三大类减速机的技术侧重点与零部件加工要求存在差异，因此不同品类技术侧重点与零部件加工要求存在差异，因此不同品类减速机之间存在技术迁移的壁垒。减速机之间存在技术迁移的壁垒。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 表表 1、三种不同传动原理对应的减速机类型三种不同传动原理对应的减速机类型 减速机类型减速机类型 齿轮减速机齿轮减速机 蜗轮蜗杆减速机蜗轮蜗杆减速机 行星齿轮减速机行星齿轮减速机 结构结构图示图示 减速原理减速原理 由各级齿轮组成，用小齿轮带动大齿轮达到一定的减速比，采用多级类似的减速结构实现减速目的。输入轴与输出轴交错，蜗轮与蜗杆相当于齿轮与齿条，输入轴上的蜗杆带动涡轮运动，通过蜗轮实现减速目的。太阳轮为输入齿轮，带动固定的行星轮运转，动力从连接行星轮的内齿轮环和出力轴输出，实现减速。特点特点 传动效率高，传递功率范围较广，箱体内结构紧凑，占用体积小、质量轻，承载力大 传动比大，传动效率较低，具有反向自锁功能；适用于两轴交错、小功率、间隙工作场合 高刚性、高精度、高传动效率、高扭矩、高体积比；适用于多种应用场景。资料来源：solidworks 非标机械设计公众号，博汇动力公众号，国茂股份招股说明书，兆威机电官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 减速机按不同的下游应用场景主要分为通用和专用减速机两大类。减速机按不同的下游应用场景主要分为通用和专用减速机两大类。通用减速机以模块化、系列化产品为主，通常一类型号的产品可以兼容下游多种应用场景。而专用减速机则更多针对某一特定应用领域，其中有工程机械齿轮箱、重载齿轮箱等较为传统的产品线，也包含了精密减速机、微型传动系统、新能源车用减速齿轮等新兴品类。图图 2、减速机主要分、减速机主要分为通用减速机和专用减速机两大类为通用减速机和专用减速机两大类 资料来源：国茂股份招股说明书，传仕精机官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 减速机齿轮减速机蜗轮蜗杆减速机行星齿轮减速机按传动原理分通用减速机RV减速机谐波减速机按应用场景分新能源电动汽车减速齿轮微型传动系统专用减速机精密减速机工程机械齿轮箱重载齿轮箱 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 1.2、减速机、减速机行业行业：国内国内千亿以上千亿以上规模，规模，下游应用广泛，市场竞争激烈下游应用广泛，市场竞争激烈 减速机生产主要原材料减速机生产主要原材料为铁、铜等金属材料为铁、铜等金属材料，核心零部件核心零部件包括电机、铸件、锻件、包括电机、铸件、锻件、轴承等轴承等。主要生产设备为金属切削机床，因此行业上游主要为电气机械和器材制造业、金属冶炼和压延加工业与通用设备制造业。我国相关行业发展成熟，减速机原材料产品市场供应较为充足，但铁、铜等原材料的市场价格波动对减速机行业的采购成本存在一定影响。图图 3、减速机行业上下游情况、减速机行业上下游情况 资料来源：通力科技招股书，前瞻产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 减速机下游应用广泛。减速机下游应用广泛。减速机的下游应用行业主要包括起重运输、水泥建材、重型矿山、冶金、电力、机器人等领域，此外还有化工、环保、能源、制药、粮油、物流、纺织、航空航天、海洋装备国民经济及国防工业的各个领域。2019 年，起重运输行业使用减速机产品的数量占比约为 25.0%，水泥建材行业使用减速机产品的数量占比约为 14.9%，重型矿山行业占比约为 9.8%。图图 4、2019 年中国减速机产品下游行业分布（按数量）（年中国减速机产品下游行业分布（按数量）（%）资料来源：前瞻产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 钢、铜等金属材料钢、铜等金属材料原材料、设备供应原材料、设备供应减速机设计、制造减速机设计、制造下游应用市场下游应用市场原材料原材料铸、锻件铸、锻件轴承轴承电机电机核心零部件核心零部件生产设备生产设备金属切削机床金属切削机床上游上游中游中游下游下游外购原材料、半成品、毛外购原材料、半成品、毛坯或标准件坯或标准件机加工；粗加工机加工；粗加工热处热处理理精加工精加工装配装配试车检验试车检验出厂检出厂检验验发货发货建筑建筑冶金冶金采矿采矿电力电力机器人机器人新能源车新能源车电子电子25.0.9%9.8%9.5%4.9.9%.1%起重运输水泥建材重型矿山冶金电力机器人其他 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-8-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 全球减速机市场全球减速机市场规模达规模达上千亿美元上千亿美元。据 ReportLinker，2020 年全球减速机市场规模约为 1331 亿美元。随着全球范围内劳动力成本的提高，各国工业自动化渗透率不断提升，制造业机械设备密度不断加大，对传动基础部件减速机的需求水涨船高，因此 ReportLinker 预计 2026 年全球减速机市场规模可达 1766 亿美元，对应2020-2026 年的年复合增速为 4.9%。图图 5、2020-2026 年全球年全球减速机行业规模（亿减速机行业规模（亿美美元）元）资料来源：ReportLinker，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 国内国内减速机行业减速机行业市场市场规模规模上千亿上千亿元元，2021-2026 年复合增速有望达到年复合增速有望达到 5%。得益于我国经济总量增长与国家相关政策营造的有利环境，我国减速机行业近年来整体呈现出持续健康发展态势。据前瞻产业研究院，2021 年我国减速机市场整体规模为 1258 亿元，到 2026 年，我国减速机行业市场规模将达 1605 亿元，2021-2026年的年复合增速有望达到 5%。图图 6、我国我国减速机行业规模（亿元）减速机行业规模（亿元）及增速（及增速（%，右轴，右轴）资料来源：前瞻产业研究院，通力科技招股说明书，观研天下，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 竞争格局方面，竞争格局方面，外资占领高端市场，外资占领高端市场，内资占据中低端市场内资占据中低端市场。据通力科技招股说明书，国内减速机市场主要分为高、中、低端三大层次，分别占据 25%、50%、25%左右的市场份额。在目前的国内减速机市场中，德国 SEW 和弗兰德等国外高端1331176604008001200160020002020202120222023E2024E2025E2026E10741114115511981258132113871456152916050%2%4%6%80060090012001500180020172018201920202021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-9-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 品牌市占率约 20%，占据绝大多数高端市场份额。国茂股份等大型国产中端减速机品牌的市场份额达到 20%左右，在中端减速机市场中地位稳固。市场中数量较多的小型国产减速机品牌市占率约 60%，是中、低端减速机市场中的主力军。图图 7、国内减速机市场竞争格局、国内减速机市场竞争格局 资料来源：通力科技招股书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2、通用通用减速机减速机：行业整合叠加国产替代，行业整合叠加国产替代，内资龙头份额提升内资龙头份额提升 2.1、通用减速机：用途多、格局散，、通用减速机：用途多、格局散，经济经济周期相关度高周期相关度高 我国我国通用减速机市场规模通用减速机市场规模近近 500 亿亿，整体增速稳健。，整体增速稳健。据前瞻产业研究院，2021 年中国减速机市场整体规模达 1258 亿元，其中通用减速机约 496.8 亿元，占比达39.5%。到 2026 年中国减速机行业整体规模将达 1605 亿元。按照 2021 年通用减速机的市场规模占比进行估计，预计 2026年通用减速机市场规模将达633.8亿元，2021-2026 年间，每年同比增速维持在 5%左右。图图 8、2021 年通用减速器市场规模占比（年通用减速器市场规模占比（%）图图 9、通用减速机市场规模（亿元）及增速（、通用减速机市场规模（亿元）及增速（%，右轴右轴）资料来源：中研普华，通力科技招股书，前瞻产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：中研普华，通力科技招股书，前瞻产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 通用减速机的下游应用场景繁多通用减速机的下游应用场景繁多,行业景气度与行业景气度与宏观经济宏观经济周期和固定资产投资额周期和固定资产投资额39.5.5%通用减速机其他减速机496.8521.7547.7575.0603.8633.84%5%60020030040050060070020212022E2023E2024E2025E2026E通用减速机市场规模市场规模增速（右轴）请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-10-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 密切相关密切相关。通用减速机被广泛应用于化工、电力、建筑、物流等等诸多下游行业里的各类机械设备中。因此，通用减速机市场呈现出一定周期属性，与宏观经济周期和固定资产投资额密切相关。图图 10、通用减速机下游应用场景繁多、通用减速机下游应用场景繁多 图图 11、减速机产量与工业增加值和制造业固定资产减速机产量与工业增加值和制造业固定资产投资具有较强相关性投资具有较强相关性 资料来源：国茂股份招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：国家统计局，中国通用机械协会，华经情报网，iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 市场市场参与者众多，集中度低。参与者众多，集中度低。从全球来看，2019 年，通用减速机龙头企业 SEW和弗兰德的全球市占率仅分别为6.3%、4.1%，全球通用减速机市场CR5仅为16.1%。通用减速机市场的分散格局产生原因有二，一是通用减速机应用领域广，技术需求各有差异，一家企业难以研发和生产覆盖全行业的减速机产品，销售层面也难以覆盖下游所有行业；二是减速机已发明一百余年，通用减速机技术趋于成熟，且低端减速机产品整体技术门槛不高，这给了后发企业和小企业充足的发展时间和空间。图图 12、2019 年年全球全球通用减速机行业市占率情况（通用减速机行业市占率情况（%）资料来源：华经情报网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院 从国内来看，进口品牌仍然占据着高端通用减速机市场的主导地位，但随着国内下游制造业的发展，市场基本盘不断扩大，以国茂股份为代表的中端内资品牌也逐渐成为了通用减速机市场中举足轻重的组成部分，开始向高端市场渗透。化工电力食品环保矿山水利建筑制药物流冶金塑料纺织0%4%8%-20%0 0420062008201020122014201620182020减速机产量同比增幅制造业固定资产投资增幅工业增加值同比增幅（右轴）6.3%4.1%2.3%1.9%1.5%1.2%1.0.8%SEW弗兰德福克邦飞利伦茨布雷维尼住友其他 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-11-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 表表 2、国内减速机市场竞争格局国内减速机市场竞争格局 市场分类市场分类 特点特点 应用领域应用领域 企业分布企业分布 高端市场 1、可靠性和精密度高，可进行高速传动；2、该类配套减速机属于重大装备的核心部件，对整套设备的运转起到关键作用 主要应用于航空航天、海工装备、轨道交通、高端冶金等高精尖行业，同时可应用于传统行业 以 SEW、FLENDER 为代表的外资企业具有领先地位，以国茂股份、宁波东力、通力科技等为代表的国内领先的减速机企业逐渐渗入 中端市场 1、对减速机的可靠性、精密度要求相对高端市场较低，输入转速一般为中低速运行，以传递动力为主；2、该类配套减速机属于设备的常规部件 主要应用于化工、起重、输送、能源、环保、建材等传统行业 综合考虑性价比等因素，国产品牌在中端市场具备竞争优势。以国茂股份、宁波东力、通力科技等为代表的国内领先的减速机企业在中端市场占据一定的市场份额，而中端市场其余大部分市场份额仍主要由国内众多中小、小微企业占据 低端市场 1、对减速机的可靠性、精密度没有特定要求，以传递动力为主；2、减速机配套设备附加值低，属于一般设备；3、减速机配套设备市场竞争力较弱，客户对减速机价格比较敏感，以低价竞争为主 主要应用于部分低端的输送、搅拌、建材、矿山设备制造中 国内众多中小、小微企业 资料来源：通力科技招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2.2、行业趋势：、行业趋势：关注自动化、集中化、机电一体、国产替代四大趋势关注自动化、集中化、机电一体、国产替代四大趋势（1）受益于人口老龄化、工业自动化）受益于人口老龄化、工业自动化趋势趋势，行业规模持续扩容行业规模持续扩容 人口人口老龄化、老龄化、工业自动化趋势为减速机行业带来工业自动化趋势为减速机行业带来长期发展空间长期发展空间。2021 年 5 月，国家统计局发布第七次全国人口普查数据，60 岁及以上人口为 2.64 亿人，占全部人口的 18.70%，比重较 2010 年上升 5.44 个百分点。三胎开放等政策的出台，表明经济飞速发展下，国内劳动力人口结构正面临转型，或将逐步迈入老龄化社会。企业为了降低人力成本、提升生产效率，正在不断扩大生产过程中机器设备的覆盖面，推动工业自动化。据工控网，2021 年我国工业自动化部件市场规模达到 2530亿元，增幅约 23%，为过去十年最高。其中，工业自动化部件市场涵盖了各类驱动器、继电器、接触器、仪表、阀门等用于实现工业自动化的基础部件。工业自动化趋势下，减速机的需求将得到大幅提升。工业自动化趋势下，减速机的需求将得到大幅提升。作为工业动力传动不可或缺的重要基础部件之一，减速机在需要传动的机械中运用广泛。以自动化立体仓库为例，自动化立体库的主体由巷道式堆垛起重机、输送机系统、自动分拣系统等组成，堆垛起重机穿行于货架之间的巷道中，完成存、取货工作。输送机系统是立体库的主要外围设备，负责将货物运送到堆垛机或从堆垛机将货物移走。这些机械的工作过程均需要减速机。因此，工业自动化趋势为减速机行业带来了新的发展动力。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-12-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 13、我国、我国工业工业自动自动化化部件部件市场规模（亿元）增速（市场规模（亿元）增速（%，右轴，右轴）较快）较快 资料来源：工控网，华经产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 注：据工控网，工业自动化部件包括 PLC、DCS、IPC、HMI 及相关软件、变频器、软启动器、通用运动控制器、传感器、调节阀、接触器、工业电源、工业交换机等。图图 14、自动化立体库是减速机在工业自动化领域中的重要应用场景、自动化立体库是减速机在工业自动化领域中的重要应用场景 资料来源：物流设备网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理（2）行业整合速度加快行业整合速度加快，龙头企业市占率提升，龙头企业市占率提升 国产龙头企业市场份额提升趋势明显。国产龙头企业市场份额提升趋势明显。由于行业内中小企业难以满足持续增长的资本开支需求、不断提升的技术及质量要求，下游客户尤其是大客户愈发倾向于购买质量与服务有保障的大企业所生产的产品。行业资源进一步向龙头企业集中，行业整合加速。以 2021 年通用减速机在整体减速机市场中约 39.5%的占比估计，2019-2021 年，国茂股份、宁波东力、通力科技三大通用减速机龙头企业在国内通用减速机行业中市占率从 7.1%提升至 10.1%，这标志着大型国内厂商正在对国内通用减速机市场进行整合，集中度上升趋势明显。141014401486139014211656183018652057253022.99%-10%-5%0%5 %00100015002000250030002012201320142015201620172018201920202021自动化部件市场规模增速（右轴）请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-13-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 15、我国通用减速机龙头企业市占率提升、我国通用减速机龙头企业市占率提升（%）趋势明显）趋势明显 数据来源：通力科技招股说明书，观研天下，iFinD，中研普华，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理、测算（3）产品技术进步推动产品技术进步推动高端高端通用减速机通用减速机国产替代趋势国产替代趋势 国内龙头品牌产品性能已接近或达到国际知名品牌对标型号水平。国内龙头品牌产品性能已接近或达到国际知名品牌对标型号水平。近年来，行业龙头企业重视研发投入、自主创新，持续推进新产品开发和升级换代，明显缩小了与国外企业同类产品在结构设计、质量控制、可靠性等方面的差距，国产替代持续深入。表表 3、国产国产通用通用减速机减速机产品产品和和 SEW 对标对标产品技术参数对比产品技术参数对比 公司名称公司名称 可比产品型号可比产品型号 结构设计结构设计 传递功率传递功率 最大输出扭矩最大输出扭矩(N/M)服务系数服务系数 输出转速输出转速 SEW R87AD3-32.66-M1 输入、输出为 3级同轴传动形式 3KW 1550 2.20 43 国茂股份 GR87-Y3-4P-34.55-M1 1550 2.10 41 宁波东力 DLR05-40DM100L-4-M1 1550 2.30 40 通力科技 TR88-Y3-4P-36.73-M1 1550 2.22 39 SEW S97pAD6-44.89-M1 输入、输出为 2级直交轴传动形式 7.5kW 3710 1.65 32 国茂股份 GSAF97-E7.5-4P-44.89-M1 4000 1.60 32 宁波东力 DLSAF07-32DM132M-4-E-M1 3300 1.60 32 通力科技 TSAF98-E7.5-4P-46.64-M1 4000 1.95 31 SEW FA47AD2-21.82-M1 输入、输出为 2级平行轴传动形式 1.1kW 400 2.50 64 国茂股份 GFF47-V1.1-4P-21.82-M1 400 2.40 64 宁波东力 DLFF02-54DMP90S-4-M1 420 2.30 54 通力科技 TFF48-V1.1-4P-21.82-M1 400 2.42 64 SEW K107AD5-82.61-M1 输入、输出为 3级直交轴传动形式 5.5kW 8000 2.70 17 国茂股份 GKA107-Y5.5-4P-82.61-M1 8000 2.60 17 宁波东力 DLKA08-18DM132S-4-M1 8000 2.80 18 通力科技 TKA108-Y5.5-4P-81.46-M1 8000 2.72 18 资料来源：通力科技问询函回复，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 4.2%4.6%5.9%2.2%2.6%3.2%0.7%0.7%0.9%0%2%4%6%8 1920202021国茂股份宁波东力通力科技 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-14-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告（4）模块化、模块化、机电一体化机电一体化趋势明显趋势明显，行业巨头纷纷布局电机、控制器领域，行业巨头纷纷布局电机、控制器领域 机电一体化战略是模块化设计的重要延伸。机电一体化战略是模块化设计的重要延伸。在减速机的基础上，机电一体化浪潮将模块化设计的思路延伸到了减速机产业链上下游。机电一体化能够帮助企业将自产的减速机、电机、控制器等匹配的组件整合为一个产品，减少接口数量，最小化连接成本。通过提供包括机电一体化驱动器、变频器、控制软件技术等一系列产品，传统的减速机企业可实现向自动化解决方案商的转型，通过向下游客户提供解决方案来成套销售产品，推动企业各产品线的发展，同时提高利润水平与体量。广泛的选择种类和配件带来了高度灵活性，使每个客户都能根据自己所需要的场景快速定制个性化解决方案，增强客户粘性。图图 16、集成了变频器的、集成了变频器的 SEW 减速电机减速电机 资料来源：SEW 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 国茂股份、中大力德等国内代表企业纷纷布局机电一体化业务。国茂股份、中大力德等国内代表企业纷纷布局机电一体化业务。2019 年，国茂股份向智马科技增资 2500 万元，持有其 20%股权。智马科技在伺服电机领域拥有成熟的技术，具备驱动器、伺服电机、变频器和永磁同步电机等成熟产品线。2020年，国茂股份联合智马科技及知名变频器制造商推出了“智能水处理检测系统”，初步形成传动系统整体解决方案。而另一减速机龙头企业中大力德则凭借其自身的电机厂商背景，长期销售减速电机与智能执行单元等产品。2021 年，中大力德的销售收入中，有约 71.62%来自其机电一体化产品。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-15-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 17、中大力德的部分机电一体化产品、中大力德的部分机电一体化产品 资料来源：中大力德官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2.3、他山之石：国际通用减速机巨头发展路径各异、他山之石：国际通用减速机巨头发展路径各异 通用减速机行业的两大巨头通用减速机行业的两大巨头 SEW 和弗兰德的产品侧重点各有千秋。和弗兰德的产品侧重点各有千秋。SEW 的通用减速机产品系列模块化程度高，覆盖了动力、传动、控制三大主要板块，代表产品有通用减速机、伺服电机、减速电机、工业齿轮箱、分散式驱动、变频器及控制技术等多个系列，相互兼容配套、组合方式多样，可形成整套的自动化解决方案，下游应用场景广泛。弗兰德的产品线则相对较为单一，主要围绕各类传动部件进行业务拓展，产品线由减速机及与减速机密切相关的联轴器构成。但弗兰德的产品更加专注于高负载和扭矩需求的工业减速机领域，产品额定输出转矩和减速比范围更广，可满足更大扭矩和负载的要求，下游主要涉及各类轻、重工业、采矿、港口以及风能等领域。图图 18、SEW 产品系列覆盖面广泛产品系列覆盖面广泛 图图 19、弗兰德业务主要围绕减速机及联轴器展开、弗兰德业务主要围绕减速机及联轴器展开 资料来源：SEW 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：Flender 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 SEW 的产品线采用了多样化的发展策略。的产品线采用了多样化的发展策略。SEW 的通用减速机产品覆盖了斜齿轮、平行轴斜齿轮、锥齿轮、蜗轮蜗杆、直角等不同形制的减速机，此外，SEW 也拥有电机、变频器、伺服驱动、控制系统等一系列产品及技术，可与其减速机产品 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-16-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 相互组合。产品的多样化使得 SEW 具备销售和服务层面的优势，能够更好地满足客户对不同形制减速机的需求，以及对定制自动化整体解决方案的需求，在扩大收入基本盘的同时，也使得 SEW 具备了向产业链下游拓展的能力。图图 20、SEW 在产品端采取在产品端采取了多样化的发展路径了多样化的发展路径 资料来源：SEW 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 借助多元化产品线，借助多元化产品线，SEW 向解决方案商方向转型。向解决方案商方向转型。在模块化分散式驱动产品的基础上，SEW 通过加入自动化工程软件及控制技术，推出了工业 4.0 下的 MOVI-C自动化解决方案。该解决方案结合了工程软件、控制、变频器和安全、驱动四个模块的产品和技术，充分利用了 SEW 模块化、多样化的产品线，目前已应用于汽车、饮料、运输和物流及机场行李搬运等行业，用于实现输送传动、搬运分拣、混合搅拌、包装、储藏等功能。作为解决方案提供商，SEW 相比其他减速机厂商更加贴近下游应用领域，采用其全套解决方案的客户相比单纯的减速机客户粘性更高，同时也有利于 SEW 自动化相关的各个产品线的铺开。同时，提供整体解决方案服务可帮助 SEW 占据更多利润环节，提升营收和利润水平。SEW 也能通过在解决方案使用过程中积累的经验来反向推动各产品线的研发和完善。图图 21、SEW MOVI-C 全自动化解决方案全自动化解决方案 资料来源：SEW 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 减速机分散式驱动电机工业减速机减速电机控制技术安全技术非接触式能量传输系统操作与启动伺服驱动工业通信变频器 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-17-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 弗兰德通过研发高功率、高输出扭矩、高负载的工业齿轮箱产品占据了专用减速弗兰德通过研发高功率、高输出扭矩、高负载的工业齿轮箱产品占据了专用减速机领域的领先地位。机领域的领先地位。弗兰德代表性的产品多为船舶、港口、磨机、搅拌机、工程机械等场景中使用的中大型齿轮箱。其下属品牌威能极推出的传动功率达 10MW，输出扭矩高达 560 万牛米的海上风电专用齿轮箱，彰显了其在大型减速机领域的深厚技术底蕴。通过专精化的产品发展路径，弗兰德不断深耕大型减速机领域，推动了公司在该领域的工艺和技术研发与积累，从而在该细分领域中博得了更优秀的产品力和更高的行业地位。图图 22、威能极的海上风电专用齿轮箱系列产品、威能极的海上风电专用齿轮箱系列产品 资料来源：威能极官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 并购是并购是全球全球减速机巨头减速机巨头扩张其扩张其商业商业版图版图的主要手段。的主要手段。一般来说，参股和并购主要有四个常见目的：通过收购某地区的竞争对手，打入该地区市场。比如 SEW 公司 1994 年通过收购其在北欧的竞争对手，芬兰 Santasalo 减速器公司，成功进驻北欧市场；通过收购某行业的公司，切入该行业，开启新的产品和业务线。弗兰德 1998 年收购了船用减速机及轴承产品制造厂，开启了船舶专用减速机业务，当前海运与船舶建造已成为弗兰德专用减速机最主要的下游行业之一；通过收购整合供应链，提升企业的盈利能力和空间；通过收、并购进行业务重组，结合双方优势，形成协同作用。图图 23、弗兰德的部分船用齿轮箱产品、弗兰德的部分船用齿轮箱产品 图图 24、Santasalo 是国际上主要的减速机厂家之一是国际上主要的减速机厂家之一 资料来源：Flender 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：瑞轴科技，Santasalo 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-18-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 2.4、国茂股份国茂股份：国内国内通用减速机龙头，通用减速机龙头，中端市场为基，中端市场为基，向向高端高端进军进军 国茂股份前身是 1993 年成立的武进县湖塘镇国泰减速机厂，2006 年更名为国茂减速机集团有限公司，在完成针对减速机市场的业务重组后变更为国茂股份。产产品主要定位为中端通用减速机，是国产通用减速机的龙头企业。品主要定位为中端通用减速机，是国产通用减速机的龙头企业。国茂股份通用减速机产品分为齿轮减速机和摆线针轮减速机两大类，2021 年共计生产 10 万种以上产品型号。国茂股份 2021 年营收 29.4 亿元，归母净利润 4.6 亿元，2017-2021 年营收复合增速 18.8%，归母净利润复合增速 36.3%，由于宏观经济下行导致需求下滑，2022年前三季度营收20.3亿元，同比下降10.0%，归母净利润2.9亿元，同比下降15.5%。表表 4、国茂股份主要减速机产品分类、国茂股份主要减速机产品分类 产品类别产品类别 产品特点产品特点 应用领域应用领域 齿轮减速机齿轮减速机 模块化减速机模块化减速机 1、零部件设计高度模块化。2、传递功率覆盖 0.12-200kW。3、包含电机快速接口，便于安装电机。4、传动比划分细，安装形式限制小，应用范围广。广泛应用于环保、建筑、电力、化工、食品、物流、塑料、橡胶、矿山、冶金、水利、饲料、纺织、印染等领域 大功率减速机大功率减速机 1、传递功率大，最高可达 5100kW，承载能力高。2、结构中不包含电机的快速接口，电机可根据需求灵活配置。3、寿命长，易于拆装，传动效率高，运转平稳。广泛应用于冶金、矿山、化工、环保、水泥、建筑、电力、石油、船舶、水利、塑料、橡胶等领域 摆线针轮减速机摆线针轮减速机 1、采用少齿差行星式传动原理及摆线针齿啮合，齿形为摆线形。2、结构紧凑体积小，单级传动比大。3、运转平稳噪声低，拆装方便，易维修。广泛应用于环保、建筑、电力、化工、食品、纺织、印染、饲料、环保、冶金、矿山、石油等领域 资料来源：国茂股份招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 通过收购打入高端通过收购打入高端、精密减速机市场。精密减速机市场。2020 年国茂全资子公司捷诺传动收购常州莱克斯诺，以“GNORD”品牌进军高端通用减速机市场，在 2021 年已经实现约1.65 亿元的年销售额。捷诺高端减速机扩产项目有望在 23 年中旬完成厂房建设，产能全部释放后将形成约 9 万台/年高端减速机产能，对应产值约 10 亿元。国茂也通过收购对机器人谐波减速器进行布局，目前月产能 2500 台左右，覆盖遨博、埃夫特等客户，将依托常州当地的协作机器人产业链进行业务拓展。积极拓展工程机械减速机、重载齿轮箱、工业齿轮箱等产品线，扩大收入基本盘。积极拓展工程机械减速机、重载齿轮箱、工业齿轮箱等产品线，扩大收入基本盘。国茂股份也采用了与弗兰德类似的扩张战略，以塔机业务为基石，开发出多种工程机械专业齿轮箱产品，通过高负载的起重专用齿轮箱和重载齿轮箱切入传统专用减速机市场。2020 年，国茂股份的 GLW 系列回转减速机批量出货，进入徐工的大中型塔机供应链中，后续又开发了中联重科等客户。在下游建筑行业景气度较低的环境下，工程机械业务部又开发出了太阳能跟踪支架减速机产品，意图降低工程减速机业务的周期性业绩波动，并进一步扩大收入基本盘。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-19-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 25、捷诺产品近年收入占比增幅明显（万元）捷诺产品近年收入占比增幅明显（万元）图图 26、国茂股份部分齿轮箱产品线国茂股份部分齿轮箱产品线 资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：国茂股份产品折页，国茂股份官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 通过建立经销商网络和整合供应链提升整体利润水平通过建立经销商网络和整合供应链提升整体利润水平：经销端，经销端，国茂股份的经销商分为 A、B、一般经销商三类，A 类经销商基本实现全国覆盖，每年签订框架协议，严禁销售其他品牌产品。截至 2022H1，国茂股份共有 82 家 A 类经销商，经销商的销售区域覆盖中国绝大多数省份，贴近市场，能够更好地发掘客户需求，并对客户的售后服务要求做出及时的响应。制造端，制造端，国茂股份采用了集中制造 分散组装模式，实现前端制造环节核心零部件的集中制造，后端组装环节根据产品的不同属性，最大程度地实现柔性化装配生产。从而较大程度地满足不同客户的需求。价格能力价格能力端端，国茂股份于 2020 年收购了铸铁件供应商泛凯斯特 51%的股权，整合供应链，打通上游铸件原材料生产环节，进一步拓宽了盈利空间。图图 27、国茂股份国茂股份利润水平稳定在较高水平（利润水平稳定在较高水平（%）图图 28、国茂股份国茂股份期间费用率整体处于良性区间（期间费用率整体处于良性区间（%）资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3、精密精密减速机：减速机：国产替代加速推进，应用场景逐步拓宽国产替代加速推进，应用场景逐步拓宽 3.1、精密减速机精密减速机：分为分为谐波、谐波、RV 两种，两种，主要应用于工业机器人主要应用于工业机器人 创新性的柔性传动技术是谐波减速器的技术特点。创新性的柔性传动技术是谐波减速器的技术特点。谐波减速器由波发生器、刚轮、柔轮组成，其工作原理通常采用波发生器主动、刚轮固定、柔轮输出形式。当中间的波发生器连续转动时，柔轮不断形变并进行反向错齿运动，从而实现波发生0.002,362.9816,539.650 0 1920202021齿轮减速机摆线针轮减速机GNORD减速机配件及其他其他业务0 0%销售毛利率销售净利率0%5%销售费用率管理费用率财务费用率整体期间费用率 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-20-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 器与柔轮的运动传递。谐波减速器的核心技术主要包括谐波传动技术及生产加工技术两方面。谐波传动技术包括谐波传动理论、啮合数学建模、齿轮齿形设计工等，与传统减速器制造技术差别较大。生产加工技术主要包括材料分析处理、精加工和装配及综合性能测试等。谐波减速器柔轮的疲劳断裂是引起谐波减速器失效的主要原因之一，柔轮的质量直接决定了谐波减速器的使用寿命，因此柔轮的材料和表面处理工艺也是十分重要的。图图 29、谐波减速器结构图、谐波减速器结构图 图图 30、谐波减速器工作原理示意图、谐波减速器工作原理示意图 资料来源：绿的谐波招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：绿的谐波招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 RV 减速机负载大，刚性强，整体结构较为复杂。减速机负载大，刚性强，整体结构较为复杂。RV 减速机采用了基于刚性啮合传动的二级减速方案，结合了行星齿轮减速器和摆线针轮减速器的两端。与采用柔性传动的谐波减速机相比，RV 减速机具备减速比大、扭矩刚性强、负载强度高、稳定性高、使用寿命长等优点。RV 减速机对传动精度、传动效率、刚度、回差等性能指标的要求非常高，导致 RV 减速机的材料选取、精密加工、齿面热处理、磨齿等生产环节均具有较高技术壁垒。其包含 30 多个零件，构型复杂，装配精度要求为微米级，因此，如何通过设计减小啮合间隙，实现各项工艺的密切配合，降低产品的磨损，提升寿命，同时实现高精度、大规模的生产装配是 RV 减速机行业的核心壁垒。图图 31、RV 减速机结构示意图减速机结构示意图 资料来源：百度百科，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-21-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 工业机器人是精密减速机下游最主要的应用场景。工业机器人是精密减速机下游最主要的应用场景。机器人每个关节运动均需靠伺服电机驱动，而伺服电机输出转速大、输出扭矩小的特点与机器人关节结构实际的输出转速小、转动扭矩大的需求正好相反，因此现有伺服电机的输出难以满足终端机械本体的运动需求，所以就需要减速器这一传动零部件进行减速增距。除了工业机器人，半导体设备、机床、汽车生产设备、显示平板生产设备均为精密减速器主要的下游应用场景。以国际精密减速机巨头哈默纳科的下游收入占比情况估计，约有 50%左右的精密减速器被用在工业机器人领域中。图图 32、哈默纳科减速机产品、哈默纳科减速机产品 2021 年年各各下游下游收入占比收入占比 资料来源：哈默纳科官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 由于两种精密减速机的性能特点不同，谐波减速器和由于两种精密减速机的性能特点不同，谐波减速器和 RV 减速器也分别适用于不减速器也分别适用于不同的应用场景中。同的应用场景中。谐波减速器具有体积小、传动比高、精密度高的特点，由于啮合部位滑动小，减少了摩擦和附带的动力损失，因此谐波减速器还具有效率高、寿命长等特性。此外，由于零部件较少，谐波减速器的结构也较为简单，易于维修，因此谐波减速机通常会被用在工业机器人的小臂、腕部或手部等空间较小且传动精度要求较高的位置上。而体积更大，结构较为复杂但因而具有扭矩刚性强、负载强度高、稳定性高等优点的 RV 减速器则可以兼顾负载能力和传动精度，更加符合基座、大臂等重负载机器人关节的性能要求。表表 5、RV 减速器和谐波减速器对比减速器和谐波减速器对比 项目项目 RV 减速机减速机 谐波减速机谐波减速机 技术特点技术特点 通过多级减速实现传动，由行星齿轮减速器的前级和摆线针轮减速器的后级组成，零部件较多。通过柔轮的弹性变形传递运动，主要由柔轮、刚轮、波发生器三个核心零部件组成。与 RV 及其他精密减速器相比，谐波减速器使用的材料、体积及重量大幅度下降。产品性能产品性能 大体积、高负载能力、高刚度 小体积、高传动比、高精密度 应用场景应用场景 一般应用于多关节机器人的基座、大臂、肩部等重负载的位置。主要应用于机器人的小臂、腕部或手部。终端领域终端领域 汽车、运输、港口码头等行业中通常使用配有RV 减速器的重负载机器人。3C、半导体、食品、注塑、模具、医疗等行业中通常使用由谐波减速器组成的 30kg 负载以下的机器人。价格区间价格区间 5000-8000 元/台 1000-5000 元/台 资料来源：绿的谐波招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 竞争格局方面，纳博特斯克与哈默纳科两大日系巨头占据了竞争格局方面，纳博特斯克与哈默纳科两大日系巨头占据了全球精密减速机全球精密减速机市场市场56.6.6%3.0%4.2.6%工业机器人半导体设备平板显示器设备汽车生产设备其他 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-22-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 的领先地位。的领先地位。全球精密减速器行业龙头纳博特斯克和哈默纳科凭借历史、资本和技术的优势，在 2020 年的全球机器人减速器市场中共占据了 75%左右的份额。其中，哈默纳科是全球谐波减速机龙头，2021年占据全球谐波减速机82%市场份额。纳博特斯克是全球 RV 减速机龙头，在全球市场约占据 60%市场份额，在中国市场中，纳博特斯克也占据了半数以上的市场份额。图图 33、2020 年世界机器人减速器市场份额年世界机器人减速器市场份额 图图 34、2021 年全球谐波减速机市场格局年全球谐波减速机市场格局 资料来源：前瞻产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：华经产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3.2、行业趋势：、行业趋势：关注关注机器替人机器替人、国产国产化化、人形机器人人形机器人及及非机器人非机器人应用应用（1）机器替人）机器替人需求提升带动精密减速机市场扩容需求提升带动精密减速机市场扩容，2021-2025 年年增速增速高高于于 20%各类工业机器人所需减速器种类、数量各有差异。各类工业机器人所需减速器种类、数量各有差异。每种不同类型工业机器人由于自由度关节的数量和负载不同，所需的减速器种类和数量也各不相同。负载较重的多关节机器人中的基座和大臂等关节就会使用 RV 减速机，而负载较小的同时又对减速机体积有较高要求的协作、SCARA 和 DELTA 机器人则更多会选用体积较小的谐波减速机。图图 35、精密减速机常见应用场景、精密减速机常见应用场景 资料来源：绿的谐波招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 60%5%纳博特斯克哈默纳科住友SPINEA其他哈默纳科82%绿的谐波7%其他品牌11%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-23-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 以下我们对工业机器人以下我们对工业机器人用用精密减速机市场规模进行测算：精密减速机市场规模进行测算：单价假设：单价假设：根据绿的谐波招股说明书披露，谐波减速机单台价格区间为 1000-5000 元，RV 减速机单台价格区间为 5000-8000 元。综合考虑市场实际情况与审慎性原则，我们测算时选取 2000 元为谐波减速机平均单价，6000 元为 RV 减速机平均单价。国内国内工业机器人用精密减速机工业机器人用精密减速机需求数量需求数量假设：假设：（1）2021 年我国工业机器人销量为 25.6 万台，依照 2020 年占比数据假设其中多关节/SCARA/Delta/协作机器人占比分别为 63%/30%/4%/3%。（2）假设每台多关节/SCARA/delta/协作机器人配备谐波减速器 3/2.5/3/6.5 台，多关节机器人配备 RV 减速机 3 台。（3）根据“十四五”机器人产业发展规划要求，2025 年前中国机器人产业营收年增速需超过 20%，综合过去几年机器人行业的良好发展情况，预计国内机器人行业整体可以实现 20%增速。协作机器人板块随着人机交互需求提升和资本的涌入，市场规模加速膨胀，假设 CAGR 为 50%。根据以上假设测算可得：根据以上假设测算可得：2022-2025 年国内工业机器人用谐波减速机市场规模分年国内工业机器人用谐波减速机市场规模分别为别为 18.5/22.7/27.9/34.6 亿元，亿元，2021-2025 年年 CAGR 达达 22.9%。工业机器人用。工业机器人用 RV减速机市场规模分别为减速机市场规模分别为 34.8/41.8/50.2/60.2 亿元，亿元，2021-2025 年年 CAGR 为为 20.0%。表表 6、中国工业机器人减速机市场规模测算、中国工业机器人减速机市场规模测算 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2021-2025 CAGR 多关节机器人多关节机器人 销量/万台 16.1 19.4 23.2 27.9 33.4 20.0%谐波减速器用量/台 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 RV 减速器用量/台 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 谐波减速器需求量/万台 48.4 58.1 69.7 83.6 100.3 20.0%RV 减速器需求量/万台 48.4 58.1 69.7 83.6 100.3 20.0%SCARA 机器人机器人 销量/万台 7.7 9.2 11.1 13.3 15.9 20.0%谐波减速器用量/台 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 谐波减速器需求量/万台 19.2 23.0 27.6 33.2 39.8 20.0lta 机器人机器人 销量/万台 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 20.0%谐波减速器用量/台 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 谐波减速器需求量/万台 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.3 6.3 20.0%协作机器人协作机器人 销量/万台 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.7 4.1 50.0%谐波减速器用量/台 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 谐波减速器需求量/万台 5.2 7.8 11.7 17.6 26.3 50.0%总计总计 谐波减速器需求量谐波减速器需求量/万台万台 75.8 92.6 113.4 139.6 172.8 22.9%RV 减速器需求量减速器需求量/万台万台 48.4 58.1 69.7 83.6 100.3 20.0%谐波减速器市场规模谐波减速器市场规模/亿元亿元 15.2 18.5 22.7 27.9 34.6 22.9%RV 减速器市场规模减速器市场规模/亿元亿元 29.0 34.8 41.8 50.2 60.2 20.0%资料来源：IFR，绿的谐波招股说明书，前瞻产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理、测算 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-24-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 全球全球工业机器人用精密减速机市场规模工业机器人用精密减速机市场规模测算测算假设：假设：根据 IFR 和中国传动网数据，2021 年世界工业机器人装机量达 51.7 万台，其中协作机器人销量为 4.65 万台，占比约 9%。依照中国各类机器人占比假设多关节/SCARA/Delta 机器人占比分别约为 61%/27%/3%，单台机器人的减速器配置与国内市场相同。假设 2022-2025 年世界工业机器人市场规模复合增速为 15%，协作机器人 2022-2025 年增速则取 2017-2021 年间的复合增速 37%。根据以上假设测算可得：根据以上假设测算可得：2022-2025 年全球工业机器人用谐波减速机市场规模分年全球工业机器人用谐波减速机市场规模分别为别为 39.1/46.8/56.4/68.2 亿元，亿元，2021-2025 年年 CAGR 达达 20.0%。工业机器人用。工业机器人用 RV减速机市场规模分别为减速机市场规模分别为 65.3/75.1/86.3/99.3 亿元，亿元，2021-2025 年年 CAGR 为为 15.0%。表表 7、世界工业机器人减速机市场规模测算世界工业机器人减速机市场规模测算 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2021-2025 CAGR 多关节机器人多关节机器人 销量/万台 31.5 36.3 41.7 48.0 55.2 15.0%谐波减速器用量/台 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 RV 减速器用量/台 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 谐波减速器需求量/万台 94.6 108.8 125.1 143.9 165.5 15.0%RV 减速器需求量/万台 94.6 108.8 125.1 143.9 165.5 15.0%SCARA 机器人机器人 销量/万台 14.0 16.1 18.5 21.2 24.4 15.0%谐波减速器用量/台 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 谐波减速器需求量/万台 34.9 40.1 46.2 53.1 61.0 15.0lta 机器人机器人 销量/万台 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.7 15.0%谐波减速器用量/台 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 谐波减速器需求量/万台 4.7 5.4 6.2 7.1 8.1 15.0%协作机器人协作机器人 销量/万台 4.7 6.4 8.7 12.0 16.4 37.0%谐波减速器用量/台 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 谐波减速器需求量/万台 30.2 41.4 56.7 77.7 106.5 37.0%总计总计 谐波减速器需求量谐波减速器需求量/万台万台 164.4 195.7 234.2 281.8 341.1 20.0%RV 减速器需求量减速器需求量/万台万台 94.6 108.8 125.1 143.9 165.5 15.0%谐波减速器市场规模谐波减速器市场规模/亿元亿元 32.9 39.1 46.8 56.4 68.2 20.0%RV 减速器市场规模减速器市场规模/亿元亿元 56.8 65.3 75.1 86.3 99.3 15.0%资料来源：IFR，绿的谐波招股说明书，前瞻产业研究院，中国传动网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理、测算（2）内资内资厂商厂商加速国产替代，加速国产替代，与自主品牌机器人厂商共同成长与自主品牌机器人厂商共同成长 价格及本土优势推动中国精密减速器市场格局松动。价格及本土优势推动中国精密减速器市场格局松动。近年来，随着以绿的谐波为代表的国产谐波减速器企业的发展壮大和国内机器人行业的迅速崛起，日系龙头企业在中国的市场份额呈降低趋势。这是因为日系机器人本体厂商与哈默纳科等日企有长期协议，采购价格更低，国产自主品牌机器人厂商采购价则是日系机器人厂商的 2-3 倍。自主品牌机器人主打性价比，采用日产谐波减速器成本过高，请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-25-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 利润空间压缩严重。而国产谐波减速器目前已基本达到与哈默纳科相近的技术水准，价格则比进口产品更低。此外，国产谐波减速器厂商还具有快速响应及服务优势，交货期短，可实现场指导装配并及时维修，减少停工时间。图图 36、谐波减速机、谐波减速机国内市场格局逐渐松动国内市场格局逐渐松动 资料来源：华经产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 日系厂商扩产较慢，多数产能集中在本土。日系厂商扩产较慢，多数产能集中在本土。纳博特斯克目前仅有日本津工厂和中国常州工厂两大生产基地，2020 年产能有约 120 万台/年，产能利用率较高。哈默纳科则只有日本本土的有明、穗高两大工厂，2018 年产能接近 180 万台/年，难以满足中国工业机器人市场对精密减速机的旺盛需求。面对外资龙头产能不足的机遇，精密减速器企业实现国产替代的步伐将进一步加速。图图 37、哈默纳科产能均分布于日本国内哈默纳科产能均分布于日本国内 图图 38、纳博特斯克扩产节奏较为缓慢纳博特斯克扩产节奏较为缓慢 资料来源：哈默纳科官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：纳博特斯克官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 谐波减速机国产替代进程较快，谐波减速机国产替代进程较快，RV 减速机厂商厚积薄发。减速机厂商厚积薄发。谐波减速机方面，谐波减速机方面，2020-2021 年，我国谐波减速机市场最大的两个外资品牌哈默纳科和日本新宝在中国市场的占有率由 46%降低至 42.9%，而国产谐波减速机厂商 CR4 的占有率之和由 35.9%快速提升至 41.1%。其中，绿的谐波作为国内谐波减速器龙头，已占据自主品牌约 80%的市场份额。RV 减速器方面，减速器方面，以双环传动、秦川机床等为代表的企业立足自主创新，依靠在变速箱、机床等领域积累的高精度齿轮领域的丰富研发生产经验，率先破局 RV 减速器，形成小批量出货。目前，国产 RV 减速机37.05.5%9.0%7.4!.0$.7%6.1%7.7%4.7%4.2%4.1%4.5.1.0%0 0 202021哈默纳科日本新宝绿的谐波来福谐波福德机器人大族传动其他国产品牌市占率上升日本品牌市占率下降 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-26-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 产品已成功应用于埃夫特、新松、广州数控等国内主流机器人产品中，实现了稳定批量供应。RV 减速器目前国产化率约为 20%-30%，未来国产替代空间较大。国产国产精密精密减速器与自主品牌机器人厂商共同成长。减速器与自主品牌机器人厂商共同成长。国际精密减速机行业呈现与下游机器人厂商深度绑定的发展趋势。两大巨头与国际四大机器人厂商的合作历史悠久，在全球机器人减速器市场中占据先发优势。2021 年全球工业机器人市场规模为 339 亿美元，中国已成为全球工业机器人最主要、增长最快的市场，占全球销量的近 43%。国产工业机器人品牌也正处在市场份额不断提升的过程之中，2021年国产工业机器人品牌国内市占率达 32.8%，高于 2020 年 30%左右的水平，同比增长 9.33%。若保持增速不变，预计 2025 年，国产品牌机器人市占率将达到 46.87%。目前已有绿的谐波、双环传动、来福谐波、中大力德等多家精密减速器厂商实现量产，但受制于绑定效应和国际局势，国产精密减速机产品难以切入国际机器人龙头的供应链中，因此国内谐波减速机企业的发展空间和国产机器人品牌的成长密不可分。图图 39、工业机器人自主品牌国内市占率预测工业机器人自主品牌国内市占率预测 资料来源：中国机器人产业发展报告，睿工业，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理（3）开拓非机器人领域应用，精密减速机行业基本盘仍在扩大）开拓非机器人领域应用，精密减速机行业基本盘仍在扩大 非机器人应用场景打开精密减速机市场空间。非机器人应用场景打开精密减速机市场空间。根据纳博特斯克官网，RV 减速器也可应用于机床的刀具和工件的旋转定位，最常见的应用包括磨头、切割头、转台等。谐波减速器在机床转台也同样存在使用场景。在以加工中心、铣床等为代表的小型数控机床领域，谐波减速器可部分取代蜗轮蜗杆和直驱电机，用于机床转台，每台机床配备 3-4 个谐波减速器。2505EP 2020212022E2023E2024E2025E 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-27-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 40、RV 减速机有多种非机器人应用场景减速机有多种非机器人应用场景 资料来源：纳博特斯克官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 国产厂商发力布局非机器人应用领域。国产厂商发力布局非机器人应用领域。国产精密减速机龙头企业绿的谐波推出了使用三次谐波技术的 Y 系列精密减速机，刚度提升幅度大，传动精密度高，绿的谐波以其为基础推出了四轴、五轴数控转台。目前由于产能限制的缘故尚未大规模推向市场，但已在绿的谐波自有生产线中进行了自用。目前该产品在性能和成本上相较传统的直驱电机工作站有较为明显的优势。图图 41、绿的谐波的四、五轴数控转台产品、绿的谐波的四、五轴数控转台产品 资料来源：绿的谐波官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理（4）人形机器人打开精密减速机行业想象空间）人形机器人打开精密减速机行业想象空间 特斯拉特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人将为精密减速机市场带来可观增量。人形机器人将为精密减速机市场带来可观增量。2022 年 9 月 30日的“AI Day”上，特斯拉公布了 Optimus 人形机器人原型机。该原型机采用了部分与汽车相同的构件，使得大规模生产成为可能。会上 Optimus 展示了行走、搬运、浇花等简单功能，未来将被用于制造业和日常生活中简单重复性劳动的替代领域。考虑到特斯拉强大的产业化能力与市场影响力，Optimus 人形机器人的 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-28-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 推出有望拉开人形机器人产业化序幕。Optimus 躯干装配 28 个自由度关节，其中腿部、双臂各 12 个，颈部、躯干各 2 个，此外双手还各有 6 个自由度关节。该机器人现公布的 2 万美元以下定价低于行业普遍预期水平，带来的较高的成本要求，有利于国产零部件制造商切入 Optimus 人形机器人产品的供应链中。图图 42、Optimus 机器人自由度关节分布机器人自由度关节分布 资料来源：特斯拉官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3.3、他山之石：、他山之石：从日系双巨头看精密从日系双巨头看精密减速机发展路径减速机发展路径 精密减速机厂商注重下游市场多样化发展。精密减速机厂商注重下游市场多样化发展。作为世界主流谐波减速机制造商，哈默纳科与国内谐波减速机企业不同，下游营收中工业机器人相关收入占比相对较低，约 60%。此外哈默纳科的谐波减速机还涉及半导体设备、机床、平板显示器设备、电机、光学设备等下游领域。RV 减速器巨头纳博特斯克也并不局限于 RV减速机业务，据 2021 年年报披露，纳博特斯克目前主要涉足 8 大细分领域，其中RV 减速机业务占据全球约 60%的市场份额，在铁路车辆车门操作系统、飞控驱动系统、商用车辆楔形闸室、建筑用自动门等领域的本土市占率也均超过 50%，因此在收入端 RV 减速机业务仅占纳博特斯克整体收入的 26.5%。图图 43、2021 年哈默纳科谐波减速器收入拆分（年哈默纳科谐波减速器收入拆分（%）图图 44、2021 年纳博特斯克业务收入拆分（年纳博特斯克业务收入拆分（%）数据来源：哈默纳科官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 数据来源：纳博特斯克年报，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 56.6.6%3.0%4.2.6%工业机器人半导体设备平板显示器设备汽车生产设备其他26.52 .74%.70%8.83%4.52%4.14%3.87%5.68%RV减速机流体设备自动门业务铁路车辆车门操作系统飞控驱动系统商用车闸室船舶用流体阀门包装设备 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-29-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 通用减速机厂商规模大，精密传动玩家“小而美”。通用减速机厂商规模大，精密传动玩家“小而美”。精密减速机领域的头部企业与海外通用减速机龙头规模差距较大，这主要是由于通用减速机和精密减速机下游应用场景广泛度的差异所致。通用减速机龙头 SEW 2019 年收入达 250 亿元人民币以上，而谐波减速机龙头企业哈默纳科2021年收入则仅为38亿元人民币左右。表表 8、海外各减速机企业对比、海外各减速机企业对比 公司公司 细分产品类别细分产品类别 主要产品主要产品 下游市场下游市场 收入规模收入规模（元（元人民币人民币）员工数员工数(人）人）SEW 通用减速机 机电一体化 伺服驱动 标准减速机、标准减速电机、变频器、分散式驱动、驱动系统、伺服减速机、伺服减速电机等 自动化、机场物流、食品饮料、材料处理包装、林业、水处理 2019 年 250 亿 20000 人左右 弗兰德弗兰德 通用减速机、工业专用减速机 圆柱、行星通用减速机、大型工业专用减速机、联轴器、高速齿轮箱等 风能、起重、船舶、能源电力、化工制药、橡胶塑料、水泥矿山、造纸、水处理、食品饮料 2019 年 160 亿 9000 人左右 纳博特斯克纳博特斯克 RV 减速机、其他非减速机类产品 精密减速机、齿轮箱、执行器、驱动单元等 机器人、汽车、机床、食品、半导体、医疗、运输、检测 2021 年 150 亿左右 8000 人左右 哈默纳科哈默纳科 谐波减速机 机电一体化产品 谐波减速机、行星减速机、旋转执行元件、伺服电动机等 工业机器人、半导体、平板显示器、电机、机床、光学设备、测量实验机、印刷、货物搬运 2021 年 38 亿左右 1100 人左右 资料来源：各公司官网、年报，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 随着下游中小型机器人的发展以及自动化领域中分散式驱动需求的释放，将减速随着下游中小型机器人的发展以及自动化领域中分散式驱动需求的释放，将减速器、电机、控制器等部件模块化并集成的机电一体化驱动产品逐渐主导了减速机器、电机、控制器等部件模块化并集成的机电一体化驱动产品逐渐主导了减速机企业新品类的发展趋势。企业新品类的发展趋势。哈默纳科率先提出“整体运动控制”概念，提供集成了减速器、电机和传感器的高附加值模块化驱动产品，现已形成了谐波减速机和机电一体化两大业务板块。这一趋势也引起了国内绿的谐波等精密减速机企业的效仿。相比单纯的减速机业务，机电一体化业务占据了电机、变频器等更多利润环节，可以更好地提升企业的整体体量以及盈利能力。图图 45、哈默纳科整体运动控制概念、哈默纳科整体运动控制概念 资料来源：哈默纳科官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-30-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 构建覆盖面广构建覆盖面广、管理水平高的全球化服务管理水平高的全球化服务和生产和生产网络是各大减速机厂商的常用发网络是各大减速机厂商的常用发展战略。展战略。哈默纳科在全球共有 11 家子公司，通过在当地建立分公司及办事处来保证公司的服务质量。向客户提供全方位的售前、中、后服务，可以有效地提高客户粘性。对经销商进行培训能改善经销商的服务质量，提高客户口碑和获客能力。经销商的管理水平也会影响到公司的经营周期，继而影响收入质量。纳博特斯克积极拓展产能，贴近下游需求，除日本本土外，纳博特斯克还在中国常州建有工厂，有助于技术服务的本土化落地及增强客户粘性。据纳博特斯克披露，预计 2022年全球总体产能增至 106 万台。图图 46、哈默纳克全球子公司及办事机构分布哈默纳克全球子公司及办事机构分布 图图 47、纳博特斯克全球纳博特斯克全球 RV 减速机产能（万台）减速机产能（万台）资料来源：哈默纳科官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院 资料来源：纳博特斯克官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院 纳博特斯克是减速机行业中采用收购、并购战略的典型案例。纳博特斯克是减速机行业中采用收购、并购战略的典型案例。纳博克公司成立于1925 年，主要制售铁路车辆用空气制动装置和液压装置；帝人航空工业早在 1985年就开始进行 RV 减速机技术的研究开发。日本帝人航空和纳博克于 2003 年合并为纳博特斯克。合并之初，双方对之前掌握的液、气体控制技术及切削加工、装配工艺技术进行了结合与升级迭代，帝人也凭借着纳博克在液压设备领域积累的经验和技术对其 RV 减速机产品进行了升级和完善。在成立之后，纳博特斯克进行了大规模的业务中止和重组，为其后产业发展和海外扩张奠定下基础。在一段时间的磨合之后，纳博特斯克将利润水平高、发展前景广、技术壁垒高的 RV 减速机、车辆设备及自动门业务定位为公司未来的核心发展方向，同时终止了 IT 和摩托车配件等与核心技术竞争力关系较小，且盈利能力较差的诸多业务。2004 年来，纳博特斯克更是先后对 9 家公司进行了收并购，通过收购成熟的业务线，公司实现了在铁路车辆设备、商用车辆闸室、自动门及液压设备等行业的快速发展。586468797966161616101020406080100120201620172018-202020212022E日本工厂中国工厂日本新增产能中国新增产能 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-31-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 48、纳博特斯克是由两家公司合并而来、纳博特斯克是由两家公司合并而来 资料来源：纳博特斯克官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 3.4、绿的谐波、绿的谐波：谐波减速器龙头，：谐波减速器龙头，产能瓶颈即将产能瓶颈即将解除解除，多元发展未来，多元发展未来可期可期 绿的谐波是国内领先的谐波减速器制造商绿的谐波是国内领先的谐波减速器制造商。绿的谐波主营产品为谐波减速器及精密金属部件和机电一体化产品，其中机电一体化产品的占比约 5%。经过多年持续研发投入，绿的谐波实现了精密谐波减速器的规模化生产及销售，打破了国际品牌在机器人用谐波减速器领域的垄断，并实现批量出口。表表 9、绿的谐波主营业务分类、绿的谐波主营业务分类 产品产品 图例图例 技术特点及用途技术特点及用途 谐波减速器谐波减速器 纯加工零部件，保证电机在合适的速度下运转，并精确地将转速降到工业机器人各部位需要的速度，具有高精度、高承载力等优点。机电一体化执行器机电一体化执行器 将伺服系统、谐波减速器、传感器集成模块，为客户提供更为标准化的解决方案。精密金属部件精密金属部件 非标机加工件，主要为各类不锈钢、铝、铁、铜制结构件，应用于工业机器人、航空航天、电气、能源等下游领域，精密零部件产品具有较强的定制化及专用性。资料来源：绿的谐波公告，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 2021 年，绿的谐波营收 4.43 亿元，归母净利润 1.89 亿元，2017-2021 年营收复合增速 26.0%，归母净利润复合增速 40.5%。2022 年前三季度营收 3.44 亿元，同比增长 7.8%，归母净利润 1.28 亿元，同比下降 9.8%。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-32-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 49、绿的谐波绿的谐波营收、营收、归母归母净利润（亿元）及增速（净利润（亿元）及增速（%，右轴右轴）图图 50、绿的谐波绿的谐波利润水平稳定在较高水平（利润水平稳定在较高水平（%）资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 产品技术力较强，切入海外高端客户供应链。产品技术力较强，切入海外高端客户供应链。凭借着齿形、结构设计方面的革新，以及轴承领域的关键技术，绿的谐波的减速器品质与国际龙头哈默纳科的水准已相差无几，仅在额定转矩、外径、厚度等方面略逊于哈默纳科。绿的谐波自主研发的“P 齿形”结构与国外主流齿形技术路线实现了差异化，大幅提升了谐波减速器的输出功率和承载扭矩。目前绿的谐波的减速器已覆盖大多主流应用场景，具备完整的产品线，并成功配套国际协作机器人龙头企业优傲机器人，工业机器人“四大家族”之一的ABB以及美国巨头GE也是绿的谐波精密零部件领域客户。表表 10、绿的谐波与哈默纳科同级产品性能参数对比、绿的谐波与哈默纳科同级产品性能参数对比 指标指标 哈默纳科哈默纳科 CSF-20-100-2UH 绿的谐波绿的谐波 LCS-20-100-C-I 钢轮外径（mm）70 94 减速比 100 100 减速器长（mm）33.5 41 波发生器孔外径（mm）9 10 输出扭矩（Nm）/输入转速（rpm）40/2000 38/2000 启停最大允许扭矩（Nm）82 78 瞬时最大扭矩（Nm）147 140 资料来源：谐波减速器的齿廓设计及动态特性分析，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 产能瓶颈即将移除，机电一体化业务即将发力。产能瓶颈即将移除，机电一体化业务即将发力。绿的谐波年产 50 万台精密谐波减速器募投项目持续推进，2021 年谐波减速机产能已达 30 万台，募投项目达产后年产能可达 60 万台。根据绿的谐波 2022 年 10 月 29 日发布的定增预案公告，公司拟定增募资 20.27 亿元，募集资金拟用于建设新一代精密传动装置智能制造项目，该项目达产后公司将新增新一代谐波减速器 100 万台、机电一体化执行器 20万套的年产能，该项目已获得股东大会通过。上述扩产完成后，将有效扩大绿的谐波精密传动装置的生产能力，丰富产品结构，有助于绿的谐波进一步提升市场份额，使得绿的谐波有更多余力配合机电一体化产品以及子公司产品线的发展。-100%00 04620172018201920202021营收归母净利润营收增速（右轴）归母净利润增速（右轴）200P 172018201920202021销售毛利率销售净利率 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-33-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 51、绿的谐波、绿的谐波谐波减速机年谐波减速机年产产量量（万台）（万台）资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 拓宽产品应用领域，扩大收入基本盘。拓宽产品应用领域，扩大收入基本盘。相较哈默纳科，绿的谐波的产品使用场景相对单一，机器人带来的收入占比达 80%左右。面对这一现状，绿的谐波针对下游的不同需求研发出多种带有技术针对性的谐波减速器产品系列，意图进一步拓宽下游市场。目前绿的谐波的医疗设备用谐波减速机已切入国际医疗设备巨头瓦里安的供应链中，其基于Y系列减速机的四、五轴数控转台产品也正待投放市场。子公司麻雀智能、均微动力等也分别涉足了工业自动化解决方案和电液伺服系统等全新产品领域。图图 52、2021 年年绿的谐波绿的谐波营业收入按下游应用分类（营业收入按下游应用分类（%）资料来源：绿的谐波招股说明书，绿的谐波年报，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 9.58.811.226.70510152025302018201920202021 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-34-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 4、减速齿轮减速齿轮&微型传动微型传动：新兴市场新兴市场增量带动增量带动减速机减速机行业繁荣行业繁荣 4.1、新能源乘用车传动齿轮：高成长性的减速齿轮新兴应用场景、新能源乘用车传动齿轮：高成长性的减速齿轮新兴应用场景 单级减速齿轮是目前新能源车的常用传动解决方案。单级减速齿轮是目前新能源车的常用传动解决方案。电动汽车与传统汽车在传动系统上的差异很大，燃油车通常需要五挡及以上的多挡位变速箱进行转速和车速匹配的传动系统，但目前新能源电动汽车多采用单级减速齿轮作为传动的核心部件。这是因为电机本身具有与传统内燃机不同的工作特性，电机在低转速时能够输出大扭矩，高速时能够输出恒功率，因此电机的特性基本与车辆需求吻合，不需要变速箱去进行过多的转速匹配。基于这个特点，单级减速齿轮逐渐成为了新能源车最常见的传动解决方案。此外，由于驱动电机相比传统发动机更加小巧，且新能源车底盘需搭载电池，空间相对有限，因此，集成了电机、减速器、控制器等部件的一体化电驱系统已成为市场主流，动力系统的模块化、小型化成为了必然。目前电驱系统厂家大多推出了由驱动电机、减速器集成的“二合一”系统，并且也研发出多款电机、减速器、控制器集成的“三合一”系统产品，正在逐步推向市场。图图 53、“三合一”电驱系统示意图、“三合一”电驱系统示意图 图图 54、电动汽车单级减速器示意图、电动汽车单级减速器示意图 资料来源：搜狐新闻，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：网易新闻，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 两挡减速器具有性能优势。两挡减速器具有性能优势。与燃油车一样，新能源车也有不同的传动方案选择。相比普通新能源车，装配两档变速箱的新能源车具有更低的电耗、更长的续航里程和更小的电池需求。此外，两挡减速器还有三个亮点：安全性提升，在紧急避险时降档加速更加迅捷；动力性提升，在较低的转速就可以达到更高的速度，同时加速能力也会进一步提高；舒适性提升，只需更小的转速就可维持高速行驶，行驶噪音更小。但由于其成本端的劣势，两挡减速器目前仅被装配在部分高端性能车型中。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-35-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 55、两挡减速器与单挡减速齿轮运行转速区别、两挡减速器与单挡减速齿轮运行转速区别 资料来源：搜狐新闻，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 新能源乘用车减速齿轮单车价值量提升新能源乘用车减速齿轮单车价值量提升主要有以下主要有以下三个重要驱动因素三个重要驱动因素：（1）电动汽车减速齿轮精度要求上升：）电动汽车减速齿轮精度要求上升：纯电车对齿轮的设计要求较传统燃油车更高，对转速、承载、啮合精度及噪声等性能要求大幅提升，从而提高了行业的技术门槛。故新能源车齿轮单价远高于传统汽车，齿轮精度要求提升至 45 级。（2）主流由单电机向双电机配置升级：主流由单电机向双电机配置升级：新能源车电驱系统模块化趋势不可逆，减速器数量与驱动电机数量基本绑定。一套“三合一”电驱系统中采用的传统单级齿轮减速器需要 4 个减速齿轮，那么双电机车型减速齿轮需求量就是单电机车型的两倍，为 8 个。（3）两级减速器技术发展并普及：）两级减速器技术发展并普及：电动汽车变速器多挡化是未来的必然趋势，目前很多高端运动车型都已装配了两挡变速箱。现已量产的保时捷 Taycan 搭载了保时捷自研的两档变速器，其采用的行星齿轮组 直齿轮组模式较为复杂，其对应的单车价值量对于中低端新能源车参考价值不高，但可以肯定的是两档变速器的齿轮需求将远高于单档减速器的齿轮需求量。表表 11、各应用场景齿轮精度需求、各应用场景齿轮精度需求 应用范围应用范围 精度等级精度等级 应用范围应用范围 精度等级精度等级 测量齿轮 4-5 航空发动机 4-5 中高端乘用车 4-6 金属切削机床 4-8 通用减速器 6-7 轧钢机 7-10 内燃机车 6-7 矿用绞车 8-10 商用车 7-8 农用拖拉机 9-10 资料来源：双环传动公司公告，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 新能源车用减速齿轮外包趋势明显。新能源车用减速齿轮外包趋势明显。燃油车时代传动系统主要由以变速箱为代表的机械结构构成，齿轮机加工曾是传动系统的关键技术，整车厂和传统系统厂商通常选择购入低精度齿胚后自主精加工的方式来掌握核心技术，构筑技术壁垒。而新能源车驱动系统的核心技术更多体现在智能控制及系统集成等层面，这就导致新兴的电驱动系统厂商，如汇川技术、华为、日本电产等，和新能源车整车厂更多地由电控领域玩家发展而来，软件技术水平较强，而对齿轮机加工这类制造 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-36-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 业技术缺乏相应积累，而齿轮机加工技术也与电驱核心技术差异过大，新能源厂商重新发展齿轮机加工技术的成本过高。因此随着新能源厂商更多将资源和能力投注于电动化、智能化等关键领域，齿轮外包趋势不可避免。表表 12、齿轮制造技术不属于电驱系统核心技术齿轮制造技术不属于电驱系统核心技术 核心技术核心技术 产品要求产品要求 主要着力点主要着力点 模块化设计模块化设计 可根据整车需求灵活选配部件以及变动外形 系统设计系统设计 紧凑型设计紧凑型设计 体积小，安装位置灵活，节省整车布置空间 小型化、集成化小型化、集成化 轻量化设计轻量化设计 高功率密度，提升整车续航里程 整体轻量化整体轻量化 平台化设计平台化设计 通过改变定子叠高和减速箱速比，实现不同扭矩输出，满足不同动力性能的车型需求 电机及变速箱设计电机及变速箱设计 低成本设计低成本设计 降低整车成本 成本控制成本控制 资料来源：汇川技术公司官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 经过测算经过测算，2022-2025 年国内新能源乘用车用减速齿轮市场规模分别为年国内新能源乘用车用减速齿轮市场规模分别为26.2/36.6/51.2/71.5 亿元，亿元，2021-2025 年市场年复合增速为年市场年复合增速为 40.1%。（1）单价方面：单价方面：根据双环传动 2021 年年度报告，2021 年新能源车齿轮产品实现销量 503.14 万件，销售收入 5.86 亿元，可得每件齿轮单价约为 116.4 元。市场上最常用的单档两级齿轮减速器每个需要 4 件齿轮，双电机布局汽车对应齿轮数即为 8 件。两档变速器目前尚未广泛用于量产电动汽车中，其对应的齿轮件数至少是同类单档减速器的两倍。可得普通电动汽车单车齿轮价值量约为 466 元；搭载双电机或两档减速器的车型单车齿轮价值量约为 931 元；既搭载双电机又搭载两档减速器的车型单车齿轮价值量约为 1862 元。另外，据立鼎产业研究网，混动车型减速机齿轮既要满足变速器要求，又要兼顾电机驱动需求，当前国内普遍采用的是单级到三级变速器 电机结构，单车价值在千元以上，因此保守假设混动车型减速齿轮价值量约为 1000 元/台。（2）增速方面：增速方面：根据乘联会发布的2021 年 12 月份全国乘用车市场深度分析报告，2021 年全国新能源电动车销量约为 298.9 万台（244.4 万辆纯电，54.5 万辆混动），混动占比约 18.23%。根据中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长张永伟乐观估计，到 2025 年我国新能源车年销量可达约 1000 万台，CAGR 达 35.24%。新能源乘用汽车配套驱动电机装机量 341.5 万台，由于混动车型基本为单电机架构，可推知共有约 42.6 万辆双电机车型，渗透率约 14.25%。考虑到双电机的发展趋势，假设 2025 年双电机占比可达 30%。由于两档减速器刚刚推出，占比较小，假设 2025 年两档减速器占比可达 10%，其中 5%为两档减速器 双电机。表表 13、中国新能源乘用车传动齿轮市场规模测算、中国新能源乘用车传动齿轮市场规模测算 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 整车销量整车销量 新能源车总销量（万台）298.9 404.2 546.7 739.4 1000.0 纯电动车销量（万台）244.4 330.5 447.0 604.6 817.7 混动车销量（万台）54.5 73.7 99.7 134.8 182.3 单电机车型单电机车型 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-37-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 车型占比 85.75.0 x.0t.0p.0%单电机车型总销售量（万台）209.6 271.0 348.7 447.4 572.4 对应齿轮市场价值(亿元)9.8 12.6 16.2 20.8 26.7 双电机车型双电机车型 车型占比 13.25.0.0.0 .0%单电机车型总销售量（万台）32.4 46.3 71.5 108.8 163.5 对应齿轮市场价值(亿元)3.0 4.3 6.7 10.1 15.2 两档减速机车型两档减速机车型 车型占比 0.5%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%单电机车型总销售量（万台）1.2 6.6 13.4 24.2 40.9 对应齿轮市场价值(亿元)0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.8 双电机双电机 两档减速机车型两档减速机车型 车型占比 0.5%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%单电机车型总销售量（万台）1.2 6.6 13.4 24.2 40.9 对应齿轮市场价值(亿元)0.2 1.2 2.5 4.5 7.6 混动车型混动车型 混动车销量（万台）54.5 73.7 99.7 134.8 182.3 对应齿轮市场价值(亿元)5.5 7.4 10.0 13.5 18.2 齿轮市场规模总计齿轮市场规模总计(亿元亿元)18.6 26.2 36.6 51.2 71.5 资料来源：双环传动年报，百人会氢能中心公众号，中研网，立鼎产业研究院，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理、测算 4.2、微型传动系统：以注塑齿轮为基的运动控制、调节、传递系统、微型传动系统：以注塑齿轮为基的运动控制、调节、传递系统 微型传动系统相较于传统传动系统具有“以塑代钢”特色。微型传动系统相较于传统传动系统具有“以塑代钢”特色。两者传动原理相同，但传统传动系统主要起到传递动力作用，以合金钢为主要材料，齿轮生产工艺多采用金属机加工的方式。而微型传动系统则主要起到控制调节、传递运动的作用，主要使用工程塑料和金属粉末等材料，以模具成型工艺为主要生产方式。此外，微型传动系统的设计开发、规模化生产装配与成本控制、微型齿轮模具设计与精密加工、科学精密检测和试验等能力都是微型传动行业中的核心壁垒，与传统减速机行业差别较大。表表 14、微型和传统传动系统对比微型和传统传动系统对比 分类分类 传统传动系统传统传动系统 微型传动系统微型传动系统 规格规格 中大型 小型、微型 材料材料 齿轮钢为主 工程塑料、金属粉末等 工艺工艺 金属机械加工（滚齿、铣齿、插齿、磨齿等）模具成型为主 实现功能实现功能 传递动力 控制调节、传递动力 下游应用下游应用 汽车变速箱、工程机械、船舶、电力设备等 通信设备、智能手机、汽车电子、智能家居、VR 设备等 资料来源：兆威机电招股说明书，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 汽车电子是微型传动系统当前最为主要的应用场景。汽车电子是微型传动系统当前最为主要的应用场景。微型传动系统的下游应用领域覆盖了汽车电子、机器人、VR/AR 头显、医疗个护等多个不同领域。其中汽车电子领域是微型传动系统目前的主要应用场景，微型传动系统被应用在汽车的自动门锁、电子驻车制动系统（EPB）、电子助力转向系统（EPS）、电动尾门、发动机冷却系统、涡轮增压控制系统等方面。该领域是微型传动系统的基本盘，在新能源车景气度大幅提升的带动下具有较高的增速。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-38-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 56、汽车电子领域中微型传动系统的使用场景十分多样、汽车电子领域中微型传动系统的使用场景十分多样 资料来源：兆威机电公司官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 IPD 瞳距调节齿轮箱是微型传动系统在瞳距调节齿轮箱是微型传动系统在 VR 头显领域中的具体应用。头显领域中的具体应用。目前主流的VR 头显产品长期使用后用户容易有视觉疲劳、眩晕等问题。机械式可变焦显示技术利用图像处理技术定位瞳孔中心坐标，同时使用算法推算注视点，并通过电机和 IPD 瞳距调节齿轮模组推动头显内的分光镜，进行变焦以实现镜片和注视点的实时变化，明显减轻眩晕现象。机械式可变焦显示技术与相机变焦技术同源，成熟度高，同时成本较低，具备量产条件。Pico4 中已搭载瞳距调节齿轮箱，市场反馈良好，预计未来 Apple、Meta 等主流品牌也将逐步搭载该解决方案。微型传动系统在微型传动系统在 VR 领域的应用有望成为其市场规模增长的催化元素。领域的应用有望成为其市场规模增长的催化元素。VR 头显是消费电子领域微型传动系统下游应用的重要增量来源，随着 IPD 瞳距调节齿轮箱的普及，新一代 VR 头显性能大幅优化，下游需求迅速扩张，也将催动相应微型传动系统需求快速上升。预计 23 年苹果 MR 眼镜将上市，Pico 也已推出新一代Pico4 产品。根据工信部等部委联合印发的 虚拟现实与行业应用融合发展行动计划，到 2026 年，我国虚拟现实终端需达到年销 2500 万台的目标，该政策的推出将极大地促进我国 VR 行业的发展。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-39-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 图图 57、单个、单个 VR 眼镜一般配备两个对焦调节齿轮箱眼镜一般配备两个对焦调节齿轮箱 图图 58、新一代、新一代 VR 头显体验感进一步优化头显体验感进一步优化 资料来源：兆威机电官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：Pico 官网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 AR/VR 头显中微型传动系统市场空间敏感性分析头显中微型传动系统市场空间敏感性分析：由于全球 VR 设备市场仍处于起步期，未来增长速度不确定性较高，因此我们选择对 2023-2025 年全球市场中 VR 头显的累计出货量和 IPD 瞳距调节齿轮箱的产品渗透率进行敏感性分析，以确定不同情况下对应的微型传动齿轮市场空间。单价方面：单价方面：IPD 对焦调节齿轮箱单价约 70 元一个，目前主流解决方案中，Pico4头显配备一个对焦调节齿轮箱，苹果头显预计配备两个对焦调节齿轮箱，故假设单机价值量平均为 100 元/台。趋势方面：趋势方面：IDC 公布数据显示 2021 年全球 AR/VR 头显出货量约 1100 万台，同比增长 92.1%，预计 2022 年将达到 1573 万台，同比增长 43.6%。Statistics 预计 2025年全球 AR/VR 头显出货量将达近 6000 万台。中性预计，假设 2025 年瞳距调节齿轮箱渗透率约 60%，2023-2025 年全球 AR/VR头显累计出货量达 1.3 亿台的情况下，2023-2025 年 VR/AR 领域微型传动系统累计的市场空间将达到 78 亿元人民币左右。表表 15、AR/VR 头显对应微型传动系统市场空间头显对应微型传动系统市场空间（亿元）（亿元）敏感性分析敏感性分析 瞳距瞳距调节调节齿轮齿轮箱渗箱渗透率透率（%）2023-2025 年头显累计出货量（万台）年头显累计出货量（万台）5000 7000 9000 11000 13000 15000 17000 19000 21000 20 14 18 22 26 30 34 38 42 40 28 36 44 52 60 68 76 84 600 42 54 66 78 90 102 114 126 80 56 72 88 104 120 136 152 168 100P 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 资料来源：IDC，搜狐网，兴业证券经济与金融研究院测算 4.3、双双环传动环传动：RV 与与减速齿轮减速齿轮并举并举的精密机加工龙头的精密机加工龙头 双环传动主营业务为机加工精密齿轮双环传动主营业务为机加工精密齿轮，是全球最大的齿轮散件专业制造企业之一。是全球最大的齿轮散件专业制造企业之一。双环传动的齿轮产品主要应用于乘、商用车、工程机械，以及摩托车和电动工具等，该业务约占总收入的 80%左右，其他业务为主业相关的钢贸业务以及 RV 机 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-40-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 器人减速器业务。双环传动在机加工齿轮行业深耕双环传动在机加工齿轮行业深耕 30 余年，迄今已形成涵盖传统汽车、电动汽车、余年，迄今已形成涵盖传统汽车、电动汽车、高铁轨道交通、及工业机器人等多个领域门类齐全的产品结构，高铁轨道交通、及工业机器人等多个领域门类齐全的产品结构，技术储备深厚，技术储备深厚，是国内机加工齿轮领域的领军企业。是国内机加工齿轮领域的领军企业。双环传动通过 AT 自动变速箱配套齿轮业务积累了稳定的行星齿轮加工、供应能力，辅以其在高精度齿轮领域的丰富研发生产经验和核心工艺技术，双环传动自主研制开发出了工业机器人精密 RV 减速器产品，并在国内率先实现量产。目前，双环的 RV 减速机产品在运行精度、噪音、寿命等性能方面与国际龙头纳博相比已基本没有差异，具备国产化替代的能力。双环传动的 RV 减速机产品在客户处反馈较好，市场粘性较强，目前 RV 减速器业务已成为依托齿轮主线，驱动企业未来持续成长的“第二极”。图图 59、双环传动历史沿革、双环传动历史沿革 资料来源：双环传动官网，百度百科，双环传动公告，玉环新闻网，观研天下，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 新能源车行业繁荣带动新能源车行业繁荣带动双环传动双环传动业绩高速业绩高速增长。增长。双环传动2021年营收53.91亿元，归母净利润 3.26 亿元，2017-2021 年营收复合增速 19.55%，归母净利润复合增速7.69%。2022 年前三季度营收 48.25 亿元，同比增长 18.7%，归母净利润 4.09 亿元，同比增长 80.8%。图图 60、双环传动双环传动营收（亿元）及增速（营收（亿元）及增速（%，右轴，右轴）图图 61、双环传动双环传动归母净利润（亿元）及增速（归母净利润（亿元）及增速（%，右轴右轴）资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 资料来源：iFinD，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 新能源车用新能源车用减速减速齿轮齿轮方面，方面，近几年来双环传动提前布局了新能源车用减速齿轮和0 0P0203040506020172018201920202021营收营收增速-100%00 0000P0023420172018201920202021归母净利润归母净利润增速 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-41-行业深度研究报告行业深度研究报告 RV 减速机等行业，导致前期净利润水平下降明显。21 年来新能源车行业的繁荣则使得双环传动针对减速齿轮外包趋势所作的战略布局得到发挥，双环传动 2021年归母净利润同比增速达到了 537%。新能源车单车齿轮数少于传统汽车，但精度要求高导致单车齿轮价值量与传统汽车持平。2022 年上半年，双环传动乘用车用齿轮销售额达 16.13 亿元，总收入占比达 52%，公司公告 2022 年新能源车齿轮意向订单 16.4 亿元，预计全年新能源车齿轮收入有望与传统乘用车齿轮持平。RV 减速机方面，减速机方面，双环传动的 RV 减速器产品有 SHPR-E、C、H 等三大系列、40余个型号，新研制的大负载、高功重比的减速器系列已成功切入了埃夫特、新松、广州数控等国内主流机器人厂商的供应链中，未来还将继续上量。双环目前在国内 RV 减速机市场份额达 14%，位居自主品牌首位。图图 62、双环传动基于机加工精密齿轮技术优势的同心圆战略、双环传动基于机加工精密齿轮技术优势的同心圆战略 资料来源：双环传动年报，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 4.4、兆威机电、兆威机电：国内微型传动领域领军企业国内微型传动领域领军企业 兆威机电是国内微型传动领域的兆威机电是国内微型传动领域的领军领军企业企业，成立于 2001 年，在切入精密零部件领域后，兆威陆续成为博世、华为、OPPO、VIVO 等知名企业的传动零部件供应商。2020 年 12 月，兆威机电于深交所主板上市。目前兆威机电主要从事微型传动系统、精密注塑件和精密模具的研发、生产和销售。兆威机电目前的主要产品包括：直径 3.4-38mm 的精密减速电机行星微型齿轮箱；定制化微型驱动控制模块；微型精密特殊金属粉末或塑胶注塑零件等。产品下游覆盖面广，涵盖了通信设备、VR/AR 头显、汽车电子、智能家居、机器人、个人护理、智能手机、医疗